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Slide 1: Better choices for the commons? IBM’s Global Innovation Outlook and “smarter” approach Congress for the New Urbanism, PTR Summit – November 5th, 2009 Stan Curtis, IBM PLM Services, Smart Cities Research
Slide 2: What does this mean for cities and planners? Background (bias): • Berkeley, MIT • P&G, Raytheon • Accenture, IBM Abstract With Moore’s Law driving technology and embedding change in our business practices globally, what does this mean for cities, transportation plans and policy innovations? Mr. Curtis will share his insights from recent projects in China, India, with Intel, CH2M and IBM’s Innovation Centre in Dublin. • Goal: Provide a framework to improve community development (service science) • Approach: Applying IBM’s Global Innovation Outlook (open innovation) • Outcomes: Configurable building-blocks…better choices! (re-districting, re-pricing)
Slide 3: “Smarter Planet” - a test plan for your region? Plan for “Mega-regions” Smarter? … more in common Better choices? • “Heard the one about 600,000 Chinese Engineers?” Washington Post 21may06 • “Planning for ‘Megaregions’ in the United States.” Dewar, Epstein; Journal of Planning nov07 • Nobel-prize! - “An Inconvenient Truth” Al Gore; Nobel Prize 12oct07 - “Governing the Commons” Elinore Ostrom; Nobel Prize 12oct09 Economics!
Slide 4: “Global Innovation Outlook” - what’s wrong with this picture? Kurzweil – Law of Accelerating Returns Gordon Moore's original graph from 1965 Q: the next 1B? IBM GIO 2004 • Ramping global supply-chains …1B cars, … 4B cellphones • Green Tech jobs? … solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries? • What about my hometown? … global and local trade skills?
Slide 5: “Smart Growth” – what’s wrong with this picture? Q: “shovel-ready” in my home town? 100 Agriculture: % of Total Revenue Value from harvesting nature Goods: 50 Value from making products 0 1800 1850 Value from enhancing the capabilities of tasks that one organization beneficially performs for others 1900 1950 2000 2050 Services: • “Shovel-ready” roads, bridges ... and cash-for-clunkers? (commodity-jobs) • “Smarter” product bundling is re-framing business services. (iPod, iPhone) • “Smarter” Services (search) are re-framing market pricing. (Craigslist, Google)
Slide 6: “Smarter Services” - what’s missing? The power of mobile money Economist 24sep09 Why cities? Power Law: T >B >S >P “village phone” operator, Uganda - Micro lending and payment - Market supply and delivery - Equal opportunity for women - Health, education, safety - Tourism, shopping, gaming Better Choices? http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14505519 www.globalsmartenergy.com
Slide 7: Global Eco-system? … local innovation! GLOBAL: Today’s “collision” of ecosystems is recognized as the most important shortcoming each industry must correct. City-Success? LOCAL: New solutions that meet the needs of the marketplace can only be achieved through this type of collaboration. INDUSTRY Eco-systems: • Automotive • Energy • Consumer Electronics • Telecommunications • Government/Transportation
Slide 8: Global (regional) planning: IBM’s approach? •248 thought leaders •178 organizations •33 countries • IBM works with global experts on regional Economic Development plans. • “Triple-Bottomline?” Policy innovation is key!
Slide 9: City Success – reconfiguring block by block SEGMENT Home Automation/ Smart Home DEFINITION A home equipped to remotely monitor, control or program a variety of home systems of varying complexity (appliances, entertainment, lighting, environmental control, security, communications, etc.). Intelligent buildings successfully merge building management and IT systems, they converge data, voice, and video with security, HVAC, lighting, and other electronic controls on a single network platform; A building is “green” if it meets certain environmental and conservation measures A localized geographic area designed to serve a specific purpose to a larger community (retail, business, residential, entertainment, education). These areas consist of complex integrated services, governance and management systems. A single system within an urban area that captures and manages data to enable increased efficiency and realtime decision making (transportation, communications, energy, security, water/waste systems, etc.) EXAMPLES Disneyland Innoventions Dream Home (Microsoft, HP, Life| ware, Taylor Morrison), Solaire (New York), Duke Smart Home Program Shanghai St. Regis (IBM), The Verve (Toronto), Bank of America Tower (New York) Ave Maria University (Naples, FL), CityStars Cairo (Cisco), University of Southern California - Enterprise Buildings Integrator (EBI) system (Honeywell) 6 City/Metropolitan Area (Multiple smart systems) 1 An extended urban area that also includes peripheral areas (suburbs) with close economic and social ties to the urban area. Populations and commerce easily flow within this area are linked though complex transport and communications systems. These areas can vary in population and geographic area. Usually defined as a metropolitan area with a total population in excess of 10 million. Megacities are characterized by rapid growth, new forms of spatial density of population, formal and informal economics, as well as poverty, crime, and high levels of social fragmentation. A megacity can be a single metropolitan area or two or more metropolitan areas that converge upon one another. An integrated set of cities and their surrounding suburban areas, competing on a global scale, linked together via social, economic and transportation systems. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, London Commuter Belt, Lisbon Metropolitan Area 2 Intelligent/Green Buildings 7 Megacity (Multiple smart systems) New York City, Mexico City, Tokyo, Seoul, Mumbai, Cairo 3 Neighborhood/ Complex/Campus/ Resort 4 Urban Infrastructure (Single smart system) 5 Specialized City/Hub A software framework, in computer programming, is an abstraction in which common Road user charging system Within a country, the system roads, water code providing generic Automated Driverless can be selectively overriddenofthat facilitates supply, power Denmark’s Rejsekort system, China’s (Copenhagen), functionality grids, telecommunications, etc. or specialized by the Metro (Sao Paolo), City-wide rail production of overall economic 9 National Infrastructure user code providing specific functionality. Frameworks are goods, services andinclude associatedof softwareSystem, India’s Golden a special case growth. nationalToll system, Portugal’s Via Electricity Grid (Moscow) Verde National infrastructure may also Quadrilateral information systems and social services such as education, A geographic area with a specific industry or technology libraries in that they are reusable abstractions of code wrappedcare. a well-defined API, public safety and medical in focus enabled by economic incentives to attract foreign GIFT, Bangalore International Airport, enterprises, increase trade, or serve a local/regional grids, or Silicon Valley - CA, International Pan European Oil Pipeline, Global yet they features A system of roads, water supply, power from normalCities Network, Trans-European economic or administrative significance. contain some key distinguishingInternational/Global that separatespans two or more countries to telecommunications that them Financial Services Centre – Dublin 10 Digital Infrastructure (Aerotropoli, SEZ, Technology Parks, Centers of facilitate the trade of goods or services between countries Transport Networks (TEN-T) libraries. or http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Software_framework regions. Commerce or Education) 8 Mega-Urban Region Boston-New York-Washington, London-Leeds-Manchester-LiverpoolBirmingham, Greater Tokyo, Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangdong
Slide 10: Developing a Platform: Carrier-grade Linux IBM – Integrated Product Development (IPD) Program Mgmt – OSDL.org Linux: Open Source Development Lab (OSDL) Market planning and portfolio management The right investments in development across brands and products tied to ROI, strategic direction, and risk – Project management data – Segment performance data Integrated product management pipeline Market information Customer feedback “the FUNNEL” FUNNEL” Competitor information Technology trends Current product portfolio Understand Define the the market marketplace segment Analyze the portfolio Create market segment strategy Develop and optimize market segment plans Manage market segment and assess performance Product development pipeline Efficiency in the total product lifecycle from concept to marketplace including people, process, and technology Satisfied customers – – – – Customer buying behavior Product objectives Business strategy R&D roadmap Conceive Define Develop Manufacture Launch Manage life cycle Profit Product development and launch “Governing the COMMONS” COMMONS” Management • 7 founders • 70 members • 6 global-ctrs Platforms • Data Center • Desktop • Carrier Grade • Embedded
Slide 11: Building Blocks – Platform mgmt Governing the COMMONS Applying lessons learned to city development It will SCALE!
Slide 12: pil plays, 3 3 ots IBM “Smart Cities” – Portland IBM/CH2M – Smart alliance (global) Energy/Buildings 1 2 Aero/Comm 3 Hybrid-powertrain + Fleet-mgmt Gen-kits + Building-mgmt Unified-Comm + Security-mgmt Auto/Heavy POLICY INNOVATION – PDX Commons, CEO4Cities SCALABLE SERVICES – Transit, SmartGrid, Safety GOVT funds DOT DOE DHS Intelligent Transit 1 (local) 2 Smart Grid 3 utilities 3 Public Safety, Unified Comm 3 design innovations MASDAR – Green City.Mgmt Integration Framework
Slide 13: Better choices: ZipCar, Enterprise, U-Haul NOT more-cars … better services! ZipCar: car-share, pay-per-use ZipCar:
Slide 14: Component models make an Eco District Experts: - Portland + Oregon Sustainability Institute - Portland + Metro - EcoTrust + Pearl District
Slide 15: Whole systems: configuration mgmt with CH2M Hill Smarter City framework? …Open standards! 1. configurable Bill-of-Material 2. requirements based models 3. compliance, certification testing Operation Phase Construction Phase Vendors/Suppliers Team External Parties Possible Active Participation Possible Active Participation Design/Build or Integrated E/P/C Design Phase Planning Phase Procurement Whole System Design? – Building Info Mgmt(BI Decommission Deconstruct Rehabilitate Retrofit Recover Restore Replace Remediate Operation/ Maintenance/ Management M)! Design Development Assessment & Objectives Setting Construction Planning Preliminary Planning & Funding Conceptual/ Schematic Design Problems Needs Opportunities Commissioning Primary Lead Active Participation Possible Active Participation Primary Lead Owner Team (May Include Users/Operators) Operations Team Primary Lead (Users/Operators) Possible Active Participation Design Team (Engrs./Archs.) Primary Lead Possible Active Participation Construction Team (Cms./Gcs./Scs) End of Service Life Decision Contract Documents Project Definition Package Bid Or Negotiate, & Award Execution Start–Up
Slide 16: Green Building – SMART framework? the greenest building? ... the one NOT built! Why Energy-service …companies? Consider that 95 percent of our building stock remains static year to year, and that most existing buildings are startlingly inefficient in their energy use, and you’ll understand the immense green opportunity presented by existing buildings; they offer the single-greatest opportunity to improve energy efficiency and improve profits across an organization How to? …eco-partners, …step-by-step! http://www.environmentalleader.com/2009/04/07/the-greenest-building-is-the-one-youdon%e2%80%99t-build/
Slide 17: Why Energy Mgmt? Business model? … services solutions! Better choices! JOBS!
Slide 18: People Power: my community! PowerMeter Mobile Devic e Personal Web Portal People Power Servers Internet GreenVent (HVAC vent)‫‏‬ Dryer, Oven GreenDo g (1-plug 240V)‫‏‬ Electric Terminator Power Console GreenPu p (2-plug 110V)‫‏‬ Fridge or Microwave GreenHeat GreenPump (monitor + hub)‫‏‬ (hot water pipe)‫‏‬ GreenSentry (whole house electricity meter)‫‏‬ GreenStat (thermostat)‫‏‬ GreenField (6-plug 110V)‫‏‬ Lamp, TV, VCR, Radio, Toaster GreenEgg (fridge monitor)‫‏‬ Open Home.Area.Network - Berkeley/Stanford NIST/EPRI IEEE 802.154 … PeoplePower SmartGrid-stimulus proposal
Slide 19: Step by step - like Weight Watchers! Most of us are aware that our cars, our coal-generated electric power and even our cement factories adversely affect the environment. Until recently, however, the foods we eat had gotten a pass in the discussion. Yet according to a 2006 report by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), our diets and, specifically, the meat in them cause more greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, nitrous oxide, and the like to spew into the atmosphere than either transportation or industry. The FAO report found that current production levels of meat contribute between 14 and 22 percent of the 36 billion tons of "CO2-equivalent" greenhouse gases the world produces every year. It turns out that producing half a pound of hamburger for someone's lunch a patty of meat the size of two decks of cards releases as much greenhouse gas into the atmosphere as driving a 3,000-pound car nearly 10 miles. http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-greenhouse-hamburger&print=true
Slide 20: Smarter Cities? … community networks! Power Law: “80/20” Rule • Ciy-Population (Zipf) • Wealth (Pareto) • Firmsize (Gibrat) Cities: economic “hubs” Pareto: 80% of wealth, 20% of pop. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_law http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scale-free_network http://senseable.mit.edu/nyte/visuals.html http://www.zinio.com/pages/Seedmagazine/Feb-09/355120772/pg-27 http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~xgabaix/papers/zipf.pdf
Slide 21: Think globally, act locally Global challenges: • Flat World • Open Innovation • Wiki-nomics Regional solutions: • Regional Innovation Initiatives (RII) • Digital Community collaboration • Sustainable development (TOD) Personal choices: • Eco district zoning • Condo, car share • SmartGrid cell services • If you’re not part of the solution… ? • Keep it simple! (Be cheerful) Ex: “Small Steps…” 3 Papers: • Open Innovation (IBM wiki) • City Success! (CEOSforCities) • Cascadia (Seltzer.06) 3 Partners: • Intel World Ahead • Dublin Innovation Centre • Endurance.net 3 Pilots: • GOSCON – Deb&Stuart • Masdar – Colin&Mogge • PeoplePower – John&Gene
Slide 22: References • • • • • • • • IBM “Global Innovation Outlook” “Portland: Green Dividend” “Better Places” “Gridwise” “Smart Garage” “The US Inter-operability Problem”Nat “Smart Planet” MIT SENSEable-city Ceos4cities, J.Cortright Israel, Denmark, Hawaii C.Harrison, M.Fleming PNNL- PGE, IBM Google, IBM ional InterOp, IBM IBM, CH2M Real Time Copenhagen 2008