LicoReis's picture
From LicoReis rss RSS  subscribe Subscribe

The Black Swan Theory 

 

 
 
Views:  95
Published:  February 08, 2012
 
0
download

Share plick with friends Share
save to favorite
Report Abuse Report Abuse
 
Related Plicks
No related plicks found
 
More from this user
Desmystifying Mentoring

Desmystifying Mentoring

From: LicoReis
Views: 1924
Comments: 0

Help, I am a Failure!

Help, I am a Failure!

From: LicoReis
Views: 1495
Comments: 0

How to get your ideas approved - Students

How to get your ideas approved - Students

From: LicoReis
Views: 1688
Comments: 0

How to Make your Network work for you

How to Make your Network work for you

From: LicoReis
Views: 2419
Comments: 0

The Sandbox Approach - Improving our Working Environment

The Sandbox Approach - Improving our Working Environment

From: LicoReis
Views: 189
Comments: 0

Motivation - Great Business Thoughts

Motivation - Great Business Thoughts

From: LicoReis
Views: 2579
Comments: 0

See all 
 
 
 URL:          AddThis Social Bookmark Button
Embed Thin Player: (fits in most blogs)
Embed Full Player :
 
 

Name

Email (will NOT be shown to other users)

 

 
 
Comments: (watch)
 
 
Notes:
 
Slide 1: Black Swan Theory Main Aspects
Slide 2: The Black Swan Theory The Beautiful Bird  A Black Swan, a member of the species Cygnus Atratus, which remained undocumented in the West until the 18th Century.
Slide 3: The Black Swan Theory The Key Concept  The Black Swan Theory is a metaphor that discuss the impact of a hard-to-predict event or a surprise in many aspects of our Society.
Slide 4: The Black Swan Theory The Author – Nassim Nicholas Taleb  The Black Swan Theory is a philosophical and mathematical theory founded by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and it describes randomness and uncertainty.
Slide 5: The Black Swan Theory Where does the name come from?  It's name originates in the assumption in Medieval Europe that black swans could not exist, when in fact, they are rare, but do exist.
Slide 6: The Black Swan Theory Important  According to the Black Swan Theory, unpredictable events are much more common than people think and are the norm and not the exception.
Slide 7: The Black Swan Theory Main Aspects of the Theory  Taleb believes that:  The more educated people are, the more likely it is that they incorrectly believe these unpredictable events are uncommon.  Information overflow in today's society blind us from relevant data about our life.  We don´t interpret data accurately and create correlations that are not relevant.
Slide 8: The Black Swan Theory Real Life Examples - Famous Predictions In 1943, the chairman of IBM, Thomas Watson, declared that, “there is a world market for maybe five computers.” In 1962, Decca recording company said of the Beatles, “we don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.”
Slide 9: The Black Swan Theory Real Life Examples – USA Crisis Real estate were convinced to be the best reliable asset but it was then proven wrong and the crisis destroyed many business and people´s life.
Slide 10: The Black Swan Theory We can´t predict the future!  We can´t predict the future based on the following statements:  Whatever proven right today, doesn’t mean it will be right forever. It can be proven wrong tomorrow.  Whatever proven wrong tomorrow, doesn’t mean it will NOT be proven right again.  Whatever proven wrong today, doesn't mean it will be wrong forever. It can be proven right tomorrow.
Slide 11: The Black Swan Theory How to deal with the Hard-to-predict Event  The first thing is you should not deny the black swan events. It happens to everyone.  Another important thing to understand is, a black swan event to me might not be a black swan event to you.  Plan for the worst case. What could be the black swan event for you?
Slide 12: Lico Reis Consultoria & Línguas Prof. Roberto Lico Our Website: www.licoreis.com licoreis@licoreis.com licoreis@licoreis.com.br robertolico@hotmail.com Linkedin: ww.migre.me/1d9r Twitter: @licoreis

   
Time on Slide Time on Plick
Slides per Visit Slide Views Views by Location