Slide 1: Online Media & Search: Major Trends of 2008
Outlook for 2009
January 30, 2009
Slide 2: Study & Methodology
• With 2008 officially in the history books, Compete took a look back at the major trends in Online Media & Search over the past year and made some predictions for 2009 • Based on the daily web usage of more than two million members of the Compete community, Compete calculates and estimates total US-based traffic for nearly every site on the web • Analyzing US traffic to the leading search engines and online media sites, Compete synthesized the major trends of 2008
– The top 5 search engines account for 95% of internet searches – The top 1,000 sites account for a major share of online media engagement
Slide 3: Search Query Share
Share of all search queries at the leading 5 engines, January – December 2008
•
Google led the way again in 2008, capturing 68% market share of 116 billion search queries made last year, up 8 ppts versus 2007
68% 60%
Query Share
3% 1%
7%
Dec-07
Dec-08
21%
68%
2008
Slide 4: Search Query Volume
Volume of monthly search queries at the leading 5 engines, December 2007 – 2008
•
In a year when most other search engines lost or slightly grew query volume, Google grew 49% to nearly 8b monthly queries
(December 2007 vs. 2008)
Query Volume (Billions)
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08
Year-over-Year ∆
49%
6%
10% -11% -24%
Slide 5: Searchers and Engine Loyalty
Volume of searchers and percentage to use only that engine, January – December 2008
• Google had the most searchers, and the highest rate of loyalty
Number of Searchers and Engine Loyalty
Average Loyalty
160,000,000 140,000,000 120,000,000
64%
25%
12%
14%
12%
80% 70% 60%
Searchers
100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 J FMAMJ J A SOND J FMAMJ J A SOND Yahoo J FMAMJ J A SOND MSN
Read as, “26M people searched at Ask in December 2008, of which 12% searched only at Ask”
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
J FMAMJ J A SOND Ask
J FMAMJ J A S OND AOL
Searchers
Engine Loyalty
Slide 6: Queries per Searcher
Average Queries per Searcher at the leading 5 engines, December 2007 – 2008
• Google and Live Search (including MSN but not Club Live) saw strong growth in queries per searcher, a key engagement measure
Queries per Searcher
Year-over-Year ∆
70
31%
1%
36%
-30%
-21%
60
50
40
30
20
10
-
Google
Yahoo
MSN
Ask
AOL
Slide 7: Referrals and Sponsored Referral Share
Volume of referrals and percentage that were sponsored (paid), December 2007 – 2008
•
Yahoo had the highest average rate of sponsored referrals
Referral Volume and Sponsored Share
Average Sponsored Rate
6,000,000,000
7%
10%
3%
4%
100% 90%
5,000,000,000
80%
4,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
Read as, “Live made 114M search referrals in December 2008, of which 8% were sponsored referrals”
70% 60% 50% 40%
Referrals
2,000,000,000
30% 20% 10%
1,000,000,000
D J FMAMJ J A SOND D J FMAMJ J A SOND D J FMAMJ J A SOND D J FMAMJ Ask J A SOND
0%
Google
Yahoo
MSN
Referrals
Sponsored Referrals
Slide 8: Online Media
Broadly speaking, the top 1,000 media sites fall into two categories
Publisher Media
Social Media
Slide 9: Media Category Growth and Reach
Media category Unique Visitor volume and share of Internet Population, December 2007 – 2008
•
The US internet population grew faster than the Top 1k Media sites in 2008
Media Category Unique Visitor Growth and Reach
(December 2007 vs. 2008)
Year-over-Year ∆
4%
Publisher UV
7%
Social UV
-8 ppts
Publisher Reach
-7 ppts
Social Reach
180,000,000 160,000,000 140,000,000
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50%
Unique Visitors
120,000,000 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08
Reach
40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Slide 10: Media Category Visitation
Media category visits and average sites per unique visitor, December 2007 – 2008
•
Visits to Publishers rose 33%, while number of Social sites visited rose 23%
Media Category Unique Visitor Growth and Reach
(December 2007 vs. 2008)
Year-over-Year ∆
33%
Publisher Visits
28%
Social Visits
19%
Avg. # of Pub Sites
23%
Avg. # of Social Sites
3,000,000,000
6.0
2,500,000,000
5.0
Average Sites/Unique Visitor
2,000,000,000
4.0
Visits
1,500,000,000
3.0
1,000,000,000
2.0
500,000,000
1.0
Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08
-
Slide 11: Page View Share
Share of all page views at the Top 1,000 Media sites, December 2007 – 2008
•
Social Media took the lion’s share of the 2.1 trillion page views made at the top 1k media sites last year, nearly doubling 2007 PV volume
Publisher Media
15%
64%
(December 2007 vs. 2008)
Year-over-Year ∆
94%
Publishers
Social Media
85%
Social Media
2008
Slide 12: Share of Time Spent
Share of all time spent at the Top 1,000 Media sites, December 2007 – 2008
•
Social Media also took 79% of the 9 billion hours spent at the top 1k media sites last year, however that was down 1% versus 2007
Publisher Media
21%
(December 2007 vs. 2008)
Year-over-Year ∆
8%
-1%
Publishers Social Media
79%
Social Media
2008
Slide 13: Trended Page Views and Time Spent
Page Views and Hours per UV at the Top 1,000 Media sites, December 2007 – 2008
•
Social Media grew Pages Views enormously at the expense of Time Spent
Page View and Time Spent per Unique Visitor
(December 2007 vs. 2008)
800 700 600 500 200
Year-over-Year ∆
57%
81%
300
33%
-7%
250
Page Views
Hours
400 300 200 100 -
150
100
50
y a M -…
-
b e8 F -0
r p8 A -0
c e7 D -0
r a8 M -0
p e8 S -0
n u8 J -0
l u8 J -0
g u8 A -0
v o8 N -0
c e8 D -0
t c8 O -0
n a8 J -0
Publishers
Social Media
Slide 14: Outlook for 2009
• Look for Google momentum to continue growth in query volume and market share in 2009
– Watch out for Microsoft to as they invest in improving queries per searcher and searcher loyalty – Possible Yahoo partnership with Microsoft would create a real rival to Google, with a combined 30% query share and strong base of loyalists
• Look for visitors and reach at Publisher and Social Media sites to level in 2009, but engagement to skyrocket
– Expect Social Media to harmonize page views and time spent, striking a balance between user engagement and display CPM – Publishers should continue to integrate Social Media functionality to narrow the Social Media edge
Slide 15: Thank you
Media inquiries, please contact: Alex Patriquin
Senior Associate Online Media & Search Compete, a TNS Media Company p: 617-933-5724 e: apatriquin@compete.com
