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Slide 1: White Paper Reference: WP106 Issue 1 (21/11/01) Technology timeline Contents Introduction Artificial Intelligence & Artificial Life Biotechnology, health & medical Business & education Demographics Displays Energy Environment & countryside Home & office Life & leisure in a cyberspace world Machine input/output Materials & electronic devices Processing, memory and storage Robotics Security, law, war Shopping & money Space Telecommunications Transport & travel Wearable technology Addendum: Wild cards 3 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 17 18 19 20 20
Slide 2: Published by BTexact Technologies a division of British Telecommunications plc Adastral Park, Martlesham Ipswich IP5 3RE, UK Email btexact@bt.com Freephone 0800 169 1689 (UK only) Phone +44 (0)1473 607080 Fax +44 (0)1473 607700 © British Telecommunications plc, 2002. Registered office: 81 Newgate Street, London EC1A 7AJ. Registered in England, number 1800000. All rights reserved. Permission is given for this publication to be reproduced provided it is reproduced in its entirity and that a similar condition, including these conditions, is included in the reproduction. Reproduction of parts of this publication is permitted provided the source is clearly acknowledged. For further details, please contact the publisher. BTexact Technologies maintains that all reasonable care and skill has been used in the compilation of this publication.However, BTexact Technologies shall not be under any liability for loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the reader, his servants, agents or any third party. All third-party trademarks are hereby acknowledged.
Slide 3: Technology timeline The future looks ever more exciting each year. Technology development is still accelerating and an increasing number of new fields are being created and exploding new ideas onto the market. The future is a hard to predict but here at BTexact we have always believed that inventing the future is the best way to create it. One thing is certain in the distant future - the world will be a very different place. One tool we produce to help alleviate uncertainty about the future is our BTexact technology timeline. Paul McIlroy produced the first timeline in 1991 and it has been updated about once every two or three years. This is the 5th edition, and the biggest yet. A new editor Ian Neild has joined me on this edition and brought a welcome freshness to the timeline. The timeline is produced mainly to give BT researchers and managers a view of what the operating environment is likely to contain at any future date, so that our products and services can be better targeted to the needs of the customer. But we have also found that many people outside the company find it useful too, so we always try to make it as free of technical jargon as possible. What must be remembered by anyone preparing for the future is that technology change isn't very important in itself. What matters is what this change enables or destroys. Timeline targets include our business customers, government, media and many private individuals. Extracts of previous versions have appeared in numerous books. Several sources of information are used for the timeline. The largest single source is the previous edition, where most of the entries are still in the future and still valid. We have only had to change a few of the dates, which we hope is an indication that we were guessing well. Many items from our last edition have happened on cue, and have therefore been removed, but many more new developments have come into view that weren't so obvious last time round. We obtain these new entries from industry journals and bulletins, scouring the Internet, chatting to experts, and some just by relaxing and thinking about the future. The arguments that the timeline has produced in the past have often proved to be useful to us and we hope that this will have the same affect on you. Experience has shown us that telecomms and computing industry companies see the future in quite different terms, so this time we are grateful to Jeff Harrow, formerly of Compaq, whose newsletters have provide us with a view from the computing industry and a number of the new entries. We have also modified and extended the 'wildcard' section, based on John Petersen's excellent work in his book 'Out of the Blue'. Although wildcards are defined as events that can happen at almost any time, for most there is a date before which they couldn't happen, since their mechanisms do not yet exist. We have estimated the dates at which each wildcard becomes feasible. We have also changed the focus of this to illustrate the acceleration of the downside of the technology development. Each new technology brings many benefits but also has a price. It is clear from this section that we are rapidly inventing new ways of destroying ourselves, and that the risk to mankind is increasing exponentially. Of course, the far future is much harder to imagine than the near future, so the number of dangerous technologies listed actually drops off in our list after a couple of decades, but we could reasonably assume that by the time we get there, we will be able to see many more potential dangers. Such a trend is cause for concern. Even though the problems are mostly soluble by even more advanced technologies, there will generally be a time lag between a problem arising and a solution being implemented, so the overall risk still increases with time. 3
Slide 4: Technology timeline However, the intention of the timeline as always is to illustrate the potential lying ahead for beneficial technologies. Not all will be successful in the marketplace. Some won't ever be implemented at all, but as the rest come on stream, our lives will improve in many ways. We will have more variety of entertainment, better health, greater wealth, and probably better social wellbeing. We will have more time saving devices and ultrasmart computers will do most of our admin, but the future world will offer so much more opportunity to be productively and socially busy that we will have even less free time than today! If we think of this as living life to the full rather than in terms of stress, then the future looks good. We hope you enjoy reading our timeline as much as we enjoyed producing it. Ian Pearson email: ian.d.pearson@bt.com Ian Neild email: ian.neild@bt.com 4
Slide 5: Technology timeline Artificial Inteligence & Artificial Life AI doctors Virus aimed at toys released Chat show hosted by robot Computer agent personal shoppers First synthetic (but organic) life form Domestic appliances with remote (networked) intelligence Smart Barbie insists on allowance for clothes and accessories Real time language translation Toys with network based intelligence Confessions to AI priest AI teachers in school Action man toys engage in war games over networks Security Barbie used for locating lost offspring Shopping Barbie acts as personal shopper for children Machine use of common sense inference Behaviour alarms based on human mistake mechanisms Computers that write most of their own software Intelligent robotic pets AI chatbots indistinguishable from people by 95 % of population First artificial electronic life First organism brought back from extinction Software trained rather than written? Domestic appliances with personality and talking head interface Systems to understand text and drawings (e.g. patent information) People have some virtual friends but don't know which ones AI students AI models used extensively in business management Artificial Nervous System for autonomous robots Highest earning celebrity is synthetic Smart Barbie with personality chip and full sensory input AI houses which react to occupants 25 % of TV celebrities synthetic Expert systems surpass human learning and logic abilities Most software written by machine Home manager computer Machine use of human-like memorising, recognising, learning Computer agents start being thought of as colleagues instead of tools Satellite location devices implanted into pets Office Automation systems using functions similar to brain functions Machine use of human-like creativity Leisure activities for intelligent software entities released Human knowledge exceeded by machine knowledge Electronic pets outnumber organic pets Electronic life form given basic rights Artificial insects and small animals with artificial brains Remote control devices built into pets Ubiquitous embedded intelligence Virus wipes out half of the electronic pet population Learning superseded by transparent interface to smart computer Robots physically and mentally superior to humans Living genetically engineered Furby (TM, Tiger Electronics) 2001 2002 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2012 2013 2015 2015 2015 2015 2017 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2025 2030 2040 5
Slide 6: Technology timeline Biotechnology, health & medical Electronic implants used to stimulate muscles in disabled people Complete genome sequence of 5 individuals Kitchen food tester that identifies presence of food poisoning bacteria Smart pills with chip dispensing drugs Instant electronic diagnosis of illnesses Retinal implants linked to external video cameras Telepresence extensively used in rural clinics Brief human suspended animation Determination of whole human DNA base sequence Electronic patient records become valuable data mines Electronic prescriptions reduce fraud and improve speed Synthetic retinal implants for simple vision Designer babies All patients tagged in hospitals Expert systems used extensively in GP surgeries Hospitals use virtual queuing systems Neural networks used for patient appointment management Artificial heart (lab-cultured or entirely synthetic) Devices roaming within blood vessels under own power Multimedia patient records Genetic screening widely used Lifestyle monitoring and insurance linked to medical records Operations videoed and stored as part of medical record Use of human's own tissues to grow replacement organs Widespread genetic intervention programmes for animals and plants Direct electronic pleasure production Online surgeries dominate first line medical care Orgasm by email Quiz shows screen for implant technologies Artificial senses, sensors directly stimulating nerves Some implants seen as status symbols Fine particle beam gene engineering Shower body scan Artificial kidneys Artificial lungs Custom (GM) foods for particular medical conditions Gene-gel stimulation of regrowth of natural teeth on demand Genetic links of all 90% of diseases identified Individual's genome part of their medical record Artificial brain cells Artificial liver Electronic memory enhancement Many new forms of plants and animals from genetic engineering Only 15% of deaths worldwide due to infectious diseases Nanobots in toothpaste attack plaque Fully functioning artificial eyes Artificial brain implants Artificial peripheral nerves Genetic, chemical and physiological bases of human behaviour understood Artificial legs Intelligence enhancement by external means First Bionic Olympics Brain 'add-ons' Artificial brain 2001 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2008 2008 2008 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2012 2012 2013 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2017 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2030 2030 2033 2035 6
Slide 7: Technology timeline Business & education Pull advertising dominates over push Half of government services delivered electronically Paperless working (at least internally) the norm in most UK business Products widely customised 85% of American management personnel are knowledge workers 80% of US homes have PCs 3rd world teleworkers with clockwork PCs and LEO satellite communications Virtual reality used to teach science, geography, art and history Widespread use of virtual reality for education and recreation B2B market worth $8.5 Tn Nomadic information companies paying no corporation tax Activators make any household object Lifestyle brands dominate Network based learning causes polarisation in classes - streaming is essential Global classes used for multicultural immersion All government services delivered electronically Universal monitoring of business transactions Email used to communicate with most social service claimants Inter-business financial transactions all electronic Virtual companies and virtual co-operatives dominate Superstar teachers use telepresence to lecture to dispersed classes Personalised degrees quantised to individual lectures 95% of people in advanced nation computer literate Telematics market hits $50Bn AI Entity passes GCSE AI Entity passes A Level Purely electronic companies exist - minimal human involvement AI Entity gains Degree AI companies illegally cloned Academic learning is argued to be unnecessary in the age of smart machines AI Entity gains Masters Degree Spread of nomadic information companies leads to global taxation Integrated taxation in all transactions More people using telework centres than home working Telework centres double as community resources Police force privatised in many nations AI Entity gains PhD AI teachers get better results than most human teachers AI Entity awarded Nobel Prize Less than 10% of UK workforce in manufacturing AI Entity sets up higher level prize Learning superseded by transparent interface to smart computers 2003 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013 2013 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2020 2025 7
Slide 8: Technology timeline Demographics Asia-Pacific overtakes US in internet users Worldwide deaths due to HIV/AIDS peak at 1.7 million Less than 20% of UK workforce in manufacturing 25% of UK workforce teleworking at least 2 days a week World population reaches 7 billion India population hits 1.2 billion population growth slows to 1% (1.3% today) 400M people live in megacities of over 10M inhabitants China GDP overtakes EU GDP Retirement age raised to 70 60% of the world's population living in cities 70 million over 65s in USA (20%) with 9 million over 85s 3Bn people water stressed (<1700 cu m per capita per year) 3.5 Bn people water stressed (400M in 2001) 1.42 billion over 65s in the world World population reaches 10 billion 2005 2006 2010 2010 2011 2015 2015 2015 2015 2020 2025 2030 2030 2040 2050 2065 Displays 1.5m flat screens for £2000 Personal display tablets for TV, magazines etc. Holographic animated or video advertisements (few second video clips) Roaming displays (accepting input from many different mobile sources) Net access using touch sensitive displays in kitchen white goods Cybersphere 'holodeck', using giant 'hamster ball' on air bearings Displays with image quality comparable to paper Polymer screen advertising billboards Video walls - single screens 2m across Personalised adverts on TV and Radio Voice control of many household gadgets Separate volume controls for different people in room 3D TV without need for special glasses Holographic displays for continuous video 3D video conferencing Holodecks using box room lined completely with polymer screens Use of free space holograms to convey 3D images Holographic TV 2002 2002 2003 2003 2003 2003 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 2010 2012 2015 2015 2018 2020 2025 8
Slide 9: Technology timeline Energy Large area amorphous solar cells with efficiency > 20% Home fuel cell based 7kW generator LiMnO2 batteries with 200Ah/kg storage Solar chimney power station (1.5km tall) Clothes collect and store solar power Most portables powered by fuel cells Multi layer solar cells with efficiency over 50% Button sized gas turbine generators for portable device power Solar reflector satellites bringing sunlight to major Northern cities Nuclear power plants supply 16% of energy in Russia and Eastern Europe Worldwide energy consumption 50% greater than 1993 Commercial magma power stations Catalytic water decomposition by sunlight Seabed gas hydrate crystals used as fuel source Worldwide oil consumption is 100M barrels of oil per day Systems based on biochemical storage of solar energy Space solar power stations Wave energy providing up to 50% of UK requirements Use of nuclear fusion as power source 2001 2001 2002 2004 2005 2005 2008 2010 2010 2010 2010 2012 2015 2015 2015 2020 2030 2040 2040 Environment & countryside Satellite policing of farming subsidies Totally managed world logistics systems Complete list of 1.5 million known species available on web Growth of scientific environmentalism Rural databases for animals and crops Effective management of the organic environment New engineered organisms used to produce chemicals Virtual farming co-operatives Extensive remote sensing use in environmental management Effective prediction of most natural disasters Out-sourced vegetable plots All domestic animals tagged Landfills in London and surrounding region full Insect-like robots used for crop pollination Deep underground cities in Japan 30% of world's arable land will be salty Widespread use of sensors in the countryside 70% of landfills in USA full Carbon dioxide fixation technologies for environment protection Artificial precipitation induction & control Global environmental management corporations Another 10% of the world's forests lost 50% of world's arable land will be salty Ozone hole disappears Between 15 and 95cm rise in sea level 2003 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2007 2010 2010 2010 2010 2012 2012 2020 2020 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 2050 2050 2100 9
Slide 10: Technology timeline Home & office Positioning sound at any point in space Doorstep videophone allowing remote interaction with callers Electronic notebook with contrast as good as paper Electronic paintings Chips on food packaging tell when food is at its best Devices registered in homes and won't work if stolen Hydraulic chair for VR games Garden audio systems Smart paint available (contains chips) 3d fax Video photo frames Fibre optic plants in gardens Video tiles Emotional objects, switches etc around home Digital bathroom mirror Magazine tablets Electronic newspapers Personalised response from household gadgets Mood sensitive light bulbs Anti-noise technology built into homes Homes made in prefabricated modules Electronic wallpaper Chips in packaging control cooking Neighbourhood video surveillance networks Washing machine aware of contents and selects cycle Domestic positioning systems Kitchen rage caused by electronic gadgets Electronic response based on conversational inference Windows with holographic coatings to re-direct sunlight Virtual windows Nanotechnology toys Robotic plant care with health monitoring chips on plants Traditional pubs using technology to enhance illusion of tradition Kaleidoscopic windows using OLEDs Air quality monitoring in homes Kaleidoscopic flowers using electronic inks Patio display panels and slabs to simulate beach Insect sized robots banned in gardens due to effects on wildlife Anti noise technology in gardens 3D home printers Nanotechnology plants 2001 2001 2002 2003 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2012 2013 2013 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2018 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2025 10
Slide 11: Technology timeline Life & leisure in a cyberspace world Hybrid rollercoasters using real and virtual effects Automatic music composition in any style Software Lego (Individual bricks contain software objects) Use of talking head technology for conferencing Avatar cosmetic surgery Cyberspace make-up Various forms of electronic addiction People have cyberspace wardrobe Frequent use of multiple Net identities causes personality disorders Cheap miniature cameras cause social backlash Plane zorbing, jumping out of planes in inflatables Toy soldiers with video camera eyes enrich play Theatres gain extra revenue by allowing internet attendance Living area use of virtual reality scenes Conferencing technology for remote socialising in public places 1Bn internet users People reduce tax liability by being partially paid in information products On line voting in UK Net chat sites insist on proof of identity Replacement of people leads to anti-technology subculture Automated real life highlight channels on digital TV VR overlays on real world Video surveillance of neighbours becomes social problem Government introduce legislation to protect local community IP Loneliness in aged population greatly reduced by network communities National UK decisions influenced by electronic referenda Worldwide population of over 65s increases by 1 million monthly Cybercommunity with 100 million people Make-up by numbers Social software, organising functions etc Holodeck' meeting room 1st Xtreme Olympics Shadow democracy used in community networks Orgasmatron VR escapism is a major social problem Dual geo/cyber-nationality recognised internationally Use of virtual environments for proxy space exploration Most towns echoed in cyberspace Major pensions crisis Digital bore filter technology Emotion transmission and conversion (feel love or anger) Digital image overlays enhance relationships Global voting on some issues Network based telepathy Creation of The Matrix VR extensively used in retirement homes Restricted capability home genetic engineering kits Experience recording Real' toy soldiers using nanotechnology 2001 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2003 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2012 2012 2012 2015 2015 2015 2016 2019 2020 2020 2020 2024 2025 2025 2025 2030 2035 2035 11
Slide 12: Technology timeline Machine input/output Robotic kitten interface One chip, multi-speaker voice recognition Air mouse and air typing Tactile sensors comparable to human sensation Odour and flavour sensors comparable to human Full voice interaction with machine Voice synthesis quality up to human standard Talking head technology used in public terminals TV internet users overtakes computer-based users emotionally responsive toys and robots Smelly telly using chips with small reservoirs of chemicals Voice interface for home appliances Highly integrated biosensors Biosensors capable of processing information Computer link to biological sensory organs Odour and flavour sensors comparable to dog Thought recognition as everyday input means Full direct brain link 2002 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2010 2010 2017 2008 2018 2020 2025 2030 12
Slide 13: Technology timeline Materials & electronic devices 1cm inertial accelerometers built into electronic devices Optical inter-chip connection All polymer flexible integrated circuits Spherical silicon integrated circuits Number of PCs sold, 160 Million Chips with clock speed of 10GHz Polymers with lower resistance than copper at room temperature Composite materials based on carbon nanotubes Semiconductor devices based on 0.01 micron technology Integrated logic devices with switching speed below 1 picosecond 1Bn Bluetooth devices worldwide Material with refractive index variable by 0.1 in electric or magnetic field Self organising adaptive integrated circuits Chips with 1 billion transistors Use of polymer gels for muscles, bioreactors, information processing Quantum effect interferometer for flux measurement Use of carbon fullerenes for on chip interconnect Molecular sized switches Chips with 10 billion transistors Atomic customisation of materials Intelligent materials with sensors, storage and effectors Use of nanotechnology Single electron technology devices Membranes with active transport and receptors Chips with 100 billion transistors Materials exhibiting superconductivity at room temperature Smart skin for intelligent clothing and direct human repair Manufacture of long diamond fibres 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2003 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2007 2007 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2013 2015 2015 2015 2015 2017 2018 2020 2020 2020 13
Slide 14: Technology timeline Processing, memory and storage 200GByte hard drives Disposable Paper Cellphone ($10) Room temperature reconfigurable molecular switch 22 hours of CD quality audio on a CD (MPEG4 format) Single sheet PC or TV with processing built into display Notebooks with P4 chips Use of molecular computing Integrated circuits on 1mm silicon spheres Memory with access time of 1 ns 11 terabytes credit card sized storage for $50 37GByte DVD Holographic storage with 1 terabyte capacity and 1 Gbit/s retrieval rate 100 TFLOPS computer 200 companies with petabyte storage requirements Sony GS3 chip, 250M transistors, 2000 bit internal bus, 2.6Gpixels/sec 1terabyte per cu cm storage density Solid State replacement for CD IBM Blue Gene computer with 1 petaflops power ANT based operating system Retrieval from 1TB database within 10 seconds 10GHz chips Cell PDA and games machine chip, <0.1 micron, 1TeraFLOPS Optical neuro-computers Quantum computer Computers used for creativity enhancement Supercomputer as fast as human brain 1 Terabit memory chip DNA storage device Optical card storage - replaces CD, VHS, audiotape, magnetic disk Quantum dot memory using 20nm dots, 50MBytes in a full stop Supercomputers with speed exceeding 1 ExaFLOPS Use of analogue co-processors in PCs MP3 Net downloads dominate over CD distribution 1.8 billion transistor, 30GHz chips, 1TIPS DNA computer Desktop computer as fast as human brain 100GB non volatile erasable RAM in few cm square 1 Petabit memory chip AI technology imitating thinking processes of the brain Molecular memory with density of 1 TB/sq. cm Parallel computer with 1000 million processors National Library of Congress available in sugar cube sized device 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2012 2015 2015 2018 2018 2020 2020 2030 14
Slide 15: Technology timeline Robotics First Robolympics held in Japan Electronic fish in aquariums Robotised space vehicles and facilities Fractal shape-changing robots Fire fighting robots that can find and rescue people Totally automated factories Autonomous robots with environmental awareness sensors Anthropomorphic robots used for factory jobs Robotic security & fire guards 40% of paid workforce will be women (worldwide) Insect-like robots used in warfare Robotic dolls and pets account for 10 % of domestic telecomm traffic Self monitoring infrastructures using smart materials and sensors. Robots for almost any job in home or hospital Fleet of garden robots for plant and lawn care and tidying Housework robots - fetch, carry, clean & tidy, organise etc. Robots for guiding blind people Reconfigurable buildings Cybernetic use in sports Housework robots for cleaning, washing etc Self diagnostic self repairing robots Actuators resembling human muscles Robotic mail delivery Robotic exercise companion Micromechanical gnomes More robots than people in developed countries Cybernetic gladiators Micro-Mechano fractal construction kit 2001 2001 2005 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008 2008 2010 2010 2010 2010 2012 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2017 2019 2020 2020 2020 2025 2025 2028 15
Slide 16: Technology timeline Security, law, war Automatic hacker detection using pattern matching Face recognition in public video surveillance systems Fire detection by odour or vibration Almost all transmissions encrypted Peoples courts on internet for minor disputes Crime and terrorism mainly computer based Use of quantum cryptography VR use in courtrooms for evidence Soldiers weapons fired remotely War fought over water supply Cracking of public key cryptography within a few seconds Data mining use in trials First net war between cyber-communities Remote override capability on planes Logic checkers highlighting contradictory evidence Household access by facial recognition Universal ID cards in UK Jargon translators Computer advice to jurors on probability issues Criminal tagging augmented with video and audio sensors Extensive use of electronics to monitor police behaviour Most weapons attack systems rather than injure people Most fighters and bombers flown remotely Gene dependent weaponry Attacks based on facilitating natural disasters Phasers issued to police, using laser/taser hybrid Automated stenographers Plastic stealth tank ID cards replaced by biometric scanning Emotion control chips used to control criminals Asteroid diversion used as weapon 2001 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2007 2007 2007 2008 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2012 2014 2015 2015 2030 2040 16
Slide 17: Technology timeline Shopping & money Automatic measurement of body using laser scanning booths in shops Automated catalogue shopping using Calling Line Identification Laser body scanning units in clothes shops Cash badges Net bring and buy exchanges Local warehousing for local distribution systems Shopping lists automatically compiled by supermarkets Personal shopping tablets Global electronic currency in use Paper and coins largely replaced by electronic cash Shops start being paid by manufacturers as try-on outlets Electronic cash from internet migrates onto high street 10% of UK shopping is electronic Personal banking replaced by agents Global barter sub-economy Most tickets electronic In-store positioning systems enable personalised guides Personal taxation at point of sale 25% of UK shopping is network based 2002 2002 2002 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2007 2007 2007 2008 2012 2012 2012 2013 2015 2015 Space First all woman space crew Sub-orbital space tourism Mars robotic aircraft flight celebrating Wright Brothers' 100 anniversary Supercollider to create and study Higgs Boson completed X38 'Lifeboats' on international space station Europa orbiter launch (search for water on Europa) Cassini reaches Saturn & releases Huygens lander into Titan's atmosphere Space tug to take satellites into high orbits Private space mission to examine asteroid with a view to space mining Next generation space telescope launch Mars lander returns soil samples to Earth Weapon systems based on Ionespheric heating Helium 3 mining on moon First manned mission to Mars Space hotel for 350 guests, using recycled Shuttle fuel tanks Near Earth space tours OWL (Overwhelmingly Large Telescope) completed with 100m mirror Regular manned missions to Mars Production, storage and use of antimatter Space factories for commercial production Start of construction of manned Mars laboratory Use of human hibernation in space travel Moon base the size of small village Orbiting international space station completed Return of Keo satellite 2002 2002 2003 2003 2003 2003 2004 2005 2005 2007 2008 2010 2012 2015 2015 2015 2016 2020 2025 2025 2030 2030 2040 2003-2006 51998 17
Slide 18: Technology timeline Telecommunications Cordless home networks using Bluetooth, Piano or Jini Photonic crystal fibre Go-anywhere personal numbering 70M European computers connected to Internet Use of passive picocell 1 billion cellular users worldwide 10 Terabit/s on single fibre ANT based services Home intranet Global terabit network UMTS launch in U.K. 1 Gbyte optical fibre loop memory Video download over network at 10 x normal speed Global broadband fibre based network ANT based network management Intranets dominate over Internet Neighbourhood intranets 1 billion mobile communication devices worldwide Video surveillance built into phone boxes 60% of internet accesses from mobile devices 50% of traffic on mobile networks will be data Domestic demand reaches 100Mbit/s per home 90% of calls tetherless All optic integrated logic, switching below 1 ps Use of high density wavelength multiplexing for trunk Use of WDM in local access Internet achieves 75% penetration in UK Electronic ATM switches largely obsolete & replaced by photonic versions Simultaneous data delivery in the City Cyberspace covers 75% of developed world 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2010 2010 2010 2010 2015 2015 2020 2020 2020 18
Slide 19: Technology timeline Transport & travel Intelligent cruise control keeping distance automatically Automated highway prototype Intelligent cat's eyes with built in speed cameras Integrated RTI system Blimp cargolifters, carrying 160 tonnes, 6000 miles at 60mph Cars powered by hydrogen fuel cells Cellular phone locations used in traffic management system Ships with super conductive electromagnetic thrust Hydrogen fuelled executive jets (cryoplanes) Fully automatic ships able to navigate and dock automatically Assisted lane keeping systems in trucks and buses Packetised' automatic rail transport systems Smart tickets for navigation through airports Superblimp troop carriers 800 x 250ft carrying 500 tons All new cars fitted with positioning systems as standard Pollution monitor chips built into cars Cars with automatic steering Scramjet' engine powered planes flying at Mach 10 Urban car co-pilot High Speed Civil Transport supersonic jet, 300 passengers, 1500mph All new cars fitted with basic cellular comms with automated distress system Tourism in some areas limited to net access GPS and engine management systems linked to limit speed automatically Road trains using adhoc networking Bus routes based on star and ring architectures Automatic driving makes car pooling feasible Number of air travellers passes 5 billion Driverless truck convoys using electronic towbar Total world travel passes 50 trillion passenger km Need to book time slots to use some key roads 1 Billion cars worldwide Total world travel passes 100 trillion passenger km 2001 2002 2002 2003 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008 2008 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2015 2015 2017 2018 2020 2020 2025 2050 19
Slide 20: Technology timeline Wearable technology Smart clothes that can alter their thermal properties Emotional jewellery Audio jewellery Camera on flexible mounting linked to toolkit headset Video jewellery Comm-badge linked to virtual retinal display Wide range of wearable electronic devices Virtual retinal displays, glasses based Folding watch computers Cameras built into glasses recording what we see Polymer video screens built into clothes Emotion badges Jewellery that changes shape and colour Portable translation device for simple conversation Kaleidoscopic clothes using materials with embedded pigment micro-capsules Video tattoos Active contact lens Alpha-wave induction sets Micro-actuators built into clothes for sensory feedback from computers Thought recognition used in sleep enhancement Computer enhanced dreaming Emotion control devices Dream link technology 2001 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2004 2005 2005 2005 2007 2007 2010 2010 2012 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 Addendum: Wild cards (that could happen almost anytime1) Asteroid or comet hits earth Massive solar flare wipes out life on earth Natural evolution of superbug Climatic Instability, Turn For The Worst Extraordinary US West Coast Natural Disaster First Unambiguous Contact with Extraterrestrial Life -- The Arrival of ETs Human Mutation Ice cap breaks up -- Oceans rise one hundred feet Mass Migrations Return of the Messiah Another Chernobyl Collapse of the United Nations Global nuclear war Environmental pressure causes evolution of superbug Aids or similarly deadly disease mutates and becomes transmittable by air Bugs resistant to all known antibiotics Rules Change: Economic and/or Environmental "War Criminals" Are Prosecuted Terrorists Go Biological US Economy Fails or collapse of the dollar Civil nuclear war Earliest potential occurrence BC BC BC BC BC BC BC BC BC AD 1950 1950 1960 1980 1990 1990 1995 1995 1995 2000 1 Based on an original idea by John Petersen, The Arlington Institute 20
Slide 21: Technology timeline Earliest potential occurrence Global economic collapse causes mass starvation and conflict Global civil war Space exploration creates superbug Civil War Between Soviet States Goes Nuclear Collapse of World's Fisheries Computer/Chip/Operating System Maker Blackmails Country or World End of Intergenerational Solidarity Gulf or Jet Stream Shifts Location Permanently International Financial Collapse Large-scale lengthy disruption of national electrical supply Major Break in Alaskan pipeline - Significant ecological damage Major Chaos in Africa Nuclear Terrorist Attack on United States or Europe Rise of an American Dictator Social breakdown in US or Europe Stock market crash Human Cloning Perfected, Human Genetic Engineering Arrives Accidental creation of lethal organism during research Antitech backlash destroys systems – chaos and starvation Deliberate biotech self-destruct by malicious biotech researcher Major genetic engineering accident Terrorism rises beyond capability of government systems Transgenic accident Encryption Invalidated Hackers Blackmail Federal Reserve Biotech terrorist attack goes wrong Evolved crime destroys human systems Global civil war between cybernations Hackers wipe out networks, causing chaos and mass starvation The hostile arrival of ETs detecting our transmissions Viruses become immune to all known treatments End of the Nation State Foetal Sex Selection Becomes the Norm Computers and robots become superior to humans Self-aware machine intelligence Third world exodus destabilises global system Computers/Robots think like humans Collapse of the sperm count Global epidemic with high speed travel and high population density Global famine caused by manmade environmental change Hybrid nanotech-organic creatures International social collapse - widespread civil conflict Major information systems disruption Major technology or science research accident Rise of a global machine dictator Total social breakdown in US or Europe Fuel cells replace internal combustion engines Life Expectancy Approaches 100 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2002 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2015 2015 2015 2015 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 21
Slide 22: Technology timeline Nanotechnology takes off Megacities cause global epidemic Nanotech development by individuals Nanotechnology accident Networks become conscious and won't co-operate Second World Nation Demonstrates Development of Nanotech Weapons Elimination by smart machines - terminator Nanotechnology war Humans access net directly, become an integral part of global information system. No-Carbon Economy Worldwide Creation of Star Trek's Borg Fatal climatic instability Global electromagnetic communications disrupted for foreseeable future Religious environmentalism destroys environment Political correctness creates new dark age Whole generation unable to effectively read, write, think, and work Human genetic engineering creates hostile super-race Humans assimilated into net Invention of elimination phaser Time travel invented Faster than light travel Immortality chip - people move into cyberspace Earliest potential occurrence 2020 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2030 2030 2030 2030 2040 2040 2040 2040 2050 2050 2070 2075 2075 2075 2100 2100 BTexact Technologies are specialists in advanced communication technologies and their application. We provide insight, inspiring ideas and integrated solutions to the communication industry and communication-intensive businesses and organisations. For further information visit www.btexact.com Products and services described in this publication are subject to availability and may be modified from time to time. Products and services are provided subject to British Telecommunications plc's respective standard conditions of contracts. Nothing in this publication forms any part of any contract. All third-party trademarks are hereby acknowledged. © British Telecommunications plc, 2002. Registered Office: 81 Newgate Street, London EC1A 7AJ. Registered in England no. 1800000