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resistbliss
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Presentation of Market Outlook for 2008 hosted by TTI, Inc. Go to www.ttiinc.com/marketeye for more information.
From:
resistbliss
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Presentation of Market Outlook for 2008 hosted by TTI, Inc. Go to www.ttiinc.com/marketeye for more information.
From:
resistbliss
Views: 987
Comments: 0
Presentation of Market Outlook for 2008 hosted by TTI, Inc. Go to www.ttiinc.com/marketeye for more information.
From:
resistbliss
Views: 982
Comments: 0
Presentation of Market Outlook for 2008 hosted by TTI, Inc. Go to www.ttiinc.com/marketeye for more information.
From:
resistbliss
Views: 2094
Comments: 0
Presentation of Market Outlook for 2008 hosted by TTI, Inc. Go to www.ttiinc.com/marketeye for more information.
Slide 1: Welcome to the 2008 Passive Market Outlook
Thank you for joining us! Listen in as Dennis Zogbi and experts from KEMET, Littelfuse, and Vishay provide a detailed market overview of the passive industry. Sit back, relax and learn what to look for in 2008!
Slide 2: TTI Marketing Outlook Webcast
Capacitors March 2008
Slide 3: Capacitor Overview
• Industry Trends
Consumption Price Lead Time
• Material Trends
Supply Chain
• Technology
Trends Drivers
Slide 4: Industry Trends
Consumption, Price, Lead Time
Slide 5: Global Semiconductor Industry
Source: Henderson Electronic Market Forecast (February 2008)
Slide 6: Total Caps to IC Ratio Units 10 12 14
Jan'01 Apr'01 Jul'01 Oct'01 Jan'02 Apr'02 Jul'02 Oct'02 Jan'03 Apr'03 Jul'03 Oct'03 Jan'04 Apr'04 Jul'04 Oct'04 Jan'05 Apr'05 Jul'05 Oct'05 Jan'06 Apr'06 Jul'06 Oct'06 Jan'07 Apr'07 Jul'07 Oct'07
0
2
4
6
8
Source: Based on World Capacitor and World Semiconductor data
Global Capacitor Units to IC Units Ratio
Slide 7: MLCC Caps to IC Ratio Units 10 12
Jan'01 Apr'01 Jul'01 Oct'01 Jan'02 Apr'02 Jul'02 Oct'02 Jan'03 Apr'03 Jul'03 Oct'03 Jan'04 Apr'04 Jul'04 Oct'04 Jan'05 Apr'05 Jul'05 Oct'05 Jan'06 Apr'06 Jul'06 Oct'06 Jan'07 Apr'07 Jul'07 Oct'07
0
2
4
6
8
Source: Based on World Capacitor and World Semiconductor data
Global MLCC Units to IC Units Ratio
Slide 8: Tantalum Caps to IC Ratio Units 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.05 0.15 0.25 0.35 0
Jan'01 Apr'01 Jul'01 Oct'01 Jan'02 Apr'02 Jul'02 Oct'02 Jan'03 Apr'03 Jul'03 Oct'03 Jan'04 Apr'04 Jul'04 Oct'04 Jan'05 Apr'05 Jul'05 Oct'05 Jan'06 Apr'06 Jul'06 Oct'06 Jan'07 Apr'07 Jul'07 Oct'07
Source: Based on World Capacitor and World Semiconductor data
Global Tantalum Units to IC Units Ratio
Slide 9: Aluminum Caps to IC Ratio Units 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 0
Jan'01 Apr'01 Jul'01 Oct'01 Jan'02 Apr'02 Jul'02 Oct'02 Jan'03 Apr'03 Jul'03 Oct'03 Jan'04 Apr'04 Jul'04 Oct'04 Jan'05 Apr'05 Jul'05 Oct'05 Jan'06 Apr'06 Jul'06 Oct'06 Jan'07 Apr'07 Jul'07 Oct'07
1
Source: Based on World Capacitor and World Semiconductor data
Global Aluminum Units to IC Units Ratio
Slide 10: Paper & Film Caps to IC Ratio Units 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.05 0.15 0.25 0.35 0
Jan'01 Apr'01 Jul'01 Oct'01 Jan'02 Apr'02 Jul'02 Oct'02 Jan'03 Apr'03 Jul'03 Oct'03 Jan'04 Apr'04 Jul'04 Oct'04 Jan'05 Apr'05 Jul'05 Oct'05 Jan'06 Apr'06 Jul'06 Oct'06 Jan'07 Apr'07 Jul'07 Oct'07
Source: Based on World Capacitor and World Semiconductor data
Global Paper & Film Units to IC Units Ratio
Slide 11: Global MLCC Capacitor Industry Shipments
Volume
1,600 1,400 1,200 $7 $6 $5
Value
Volume in Billions
1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1997 1999 2005 1996 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007
Value in Billions
$4 $3 $2 $1 $0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Calendar Year
Calendar Year
3 yr. 5 yr. 10 yr.
CAGR ’05 to ’07: CAGR ’03 to ’07: CAGR ’98 to ’07:
17.6% 21.6% 19.4%
3 yr. 5 yr. 10 yr.
CAGR ’05 to ’07: CAGR ’03 to ’07: CAGR ’98 to ’07:
18.1% 8.5% 8.3%
Source: Based on World Cap data
Slide 12: Global Tantalum Capacitor Industry Shipments
Volume
25 $3.5 $3.0 20 $2.5 15
Value
Volume in Billions
Value in Billions
2002 2003 2007
$2.0 $1.5 $1.0
10
5 $0.5 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2004 2005 2006 $0.0 1997 2000 2001 2004 1996 1998 1999 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007
Calendar Year
Calendar Year
3 yr. 5 yr. 10 yr.
CAGR ’05 to ’07: CAGR ’03 to ’07: CAGR ’98 to ’07:
1.6% 4.4% 3.4%
3 yr. 5 yr. 10 yr.
CAGR ’05 to ’07: CAGR ’03 to ’07: CAGR ’98 to ’07:
-0.6% -2.2% 0.1%
Source: Based on World Cap data
Slide 13: Global Aluminum Capacitor Industry Shipments
Volume
90 80 70 $7 $6 $5
Value
Volume in Billions
Value in Billions
1997 2004 2005 2006
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2007
$4 $3 $2 $1 $0 2004 2005 2006 2007 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Calendar Year
Calendar Year
3 yr. 5 yr. 10 yr.
CAGR ’05 to ’07: CAGR ’03 to ’07: CAGR ’98 to ’07:
-0.9% 2.7% 2.8%
3 yr. 5 yr. 10 yr.
CAGR ’05 to ’07: CAGR ’03 to ’07: CAGR ’98 to ’07:
9.1% -0.5% 0.2%
Source: Based on World Cap data
Slide 14: Global Paper and Film Capacitor Industry Shipments
Volume
30 $2.8 $2.4 $2.0 20
Value
25
Volume in Billions
Value in Billions
2002 2003 2007
$1.6 $1.2 $0.8
15
10
5
$0.4 $0.0 1997 2000 2001 2004 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2004 2005 2006 1996 1998 1999 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007
0
Calendar Year
Calendar Year
3 yr. 5 yr. 10 yr.
CAGR ’05 to ’07: CAGR ’03 to ’07: CAGR ’98 to ’07:
-2.6% -1.6% -1.6%
3 yr. 5 yr. 10 yr.
CAGR ’05 to ’07: CAGR ’03 to ’07: CAGR ’98 to ’07:
6.9% -6.6% -5.0%
Source: Based on World Cap data
Slide 15: Global MLCC Capacitor Industry ASP
0.0180 0.0160 0.0140 0.0120
ASP
0.0100 0.0080 0.0060 0.0040 0.0020 0.0000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
3-year avg. decline - 9.3%
Calendar Year
Source: Based on World Cap data
Slide 16: Global Tantalum Capacitor Industry ASP
0.1800 0.1600 0.1400 0.1200
ASP
0.1000 0.0800 0.0600 0.0400 0.0200 0.0000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
3-year avg. decline - 4.9%
Calendar Year
Source: Based on World Cap data
Slide 17: Global Aluminum Capacitor Industry ASP
0.1000 0.0900 0.0800 0.0700 0.0600
ASP
0.0500 0.0400 0.0300 0.0200 0.0100 0.0000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
3-year avg. decline - 3.4%
Calendar Year
Source: Based on World Cap data
Slide 18: Global Paper & Film Capacitor Industry ASP
0.0900 0.0800 0.0700 0.0600
ASP
0.0500 0.0400 0.0300 0.0200 0.0100 0.0000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
3-year avg. decline - 4.8%
Calendar Year
Source: Based on World Cap data
Slide 19: U.S. Passive Component Industry
Source: Henderson Electronic Market Forecast (February 2008)
Slide 20: Passive Component Lead Times
Ceramic Capacitors Film Capacitors Tantalum Capacitors Resistors Aluminum Electrolytic Capacitors Connectors Mica Capacitors
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19 20
Source: www.TTI.com
Slide 21: Material Trends
Supply Chain
Slide 22: Supply Chain Issues
• Tantalum
Raw Material Powder Processing Capacity Lead-Frame Material Epoxy √ √ √ √
• Ceramic
Barium Titanate Metals, Nickel Powder Carrier Film √ ? √
• Aluminum
Raw Material Energy √ ?
Slide 23: Technology
Trends and Drivers
Slide 24: Technology Trends
• Mobility & Connectivity
Smaller, More Portable Products Wireless
• Reduced Number of Circuit • • • • •
Connections Increased Reliability Demands Failure Mode Concerns Environmental Issues Declining TCO Lower System Costs
• Applications
Reduced Operating Voltages Increased Frequencies Converged Functionalities
• Working Environments
Higher Temperatures
Slide 25: Technology Drivers
• Increased Volumetric Efficiency
Capacitance Extension Miniaturization & Modularization
• Lower Parasitics (ESR/ESL)
Improved performance Fewer discretes Embedded discretes
• Alternative Materials • Cost Reduction
All This Without Compromising:
Reliability Robustness
Slide 26: TTI Marketing Outlook Webcast
Capacitors March 2008
Slide 27: Thank you!
Please visit www.ttiinc.com/marketeye for more information