Slide 1: Welcome to the 2008 Passive Market Outlook Thank you for joining us! Listen in as Dennis Zogbi and experts from KEMET, Littelfuse, and Vishay provide a detailed market overview of the passive industry. Sit back, relax and learn what to look for in 2008!
Slide 2: TTI Marketing Outlook Webcast Capacitors March 2008
Slide 3: Capacitor Overview • Industry Trends  Consumption  Price  Lead Time • Material Trends  Supply Chain • Technology  Trends  Drivers
Slide 4: Industry Trends Consumption, Price, Lead Time
Slide 5: Global Semiconductor Industry Source: Henderson Electronic Market Forecast (February 2008)
Slide 6: Total Caps to IC Ratio Units 10 12 14 Jan'01 Apr'01 Jul'01 Oct'01 Jan'02 Apr'02 Jul'02 Oct'02 Jan'03 Apr'03 Jul'03 Oct'03 Jan'04 Apr'04 Jul'04 Oct'04 Jan'05 Apr'05 Jul'05 Oct'05 Jan'06 Apr'06 Jul'06 Oct'06 Jan'07 Apr'07 Jul'07 Oct'07 0 2 4 6 8 Source: Based on World Capacitor and World Semiconductor data Global Capacitor Units to IC Units Ratio
Slide 7: MLCC Caps to IC Ratio Units 10 12 Jan'01 Apr'01 Jul'01 Oct'01 Jan'02 Apr'02 Jul'02 Oct'02 Jan'03 Apr'03 Jul'03 Oct'03 Jan'04 Apr'04 Jul'04 Oct'04 Jan'05 Apr'05 Jul'05 Oct'05 Jan'06 Apr'06 Jul'06 Oct'06 Jan'07 Apr'07 Jul'07 Oct'07 0 2 4 6 8 Source: Based on World Capacitor and World Semiconductor data Global MLCC Units to IC Units Ratio
Slide 8: Tantalum Caps to IC Ratio Units 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.05 0.15 0.25 0.35 0 Jan'01 Apr'01 Jul'01 Oct'01 Jan'02 Apr'02 Jul'02 Oct'02 Jan'03 Apr'03 Jul'03 Oct'03 Jan'04 Apr'04 Jul'04 Oct'04 Jan'05 Apr'05 Jul'05 Oct'05 Jan'06 Apr'06 Jul'06 Oct'06 Jan'07 Apr'07 Jul'07 Oct'07 Source: Based on World Capacitor and World Semiconductor data Global Tantalum Units to IC Units Ratio
Slide 9: Aluminum Caps to IC Ratio Units 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 0 Jan'01 Apr'01 Jul'01 Oct'01 Jan'02 Apr'02 Jul'02 Oct'02 Jan'03 Apr'03 Jul'03 Oct'03 Jan'04 Apr'04 Jul'04 Oct'04 Jan'05 Apr'05 Jul'05 Oct'05 Jan'06 Apr'06 Jul'06 Oct'06 Jan'07 Apr'07 Jul'07 Oct'07 1 Source: Based on World Capacitor and World Semiconductor data Global Aluminum Units to IC Units Ratio
Slide 10: Paper & Film Caps to IC Ratio Units 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.05 0.15 0.25 0.35 0 Jan'01 Apr'01 Jul'01 Oct'01 Jan'02 Apr'02 Jul'02 Oct'02 Jan'03 Apr'03 Jul'03 Oct'03 Jan'04 Apr'04 Jul'04 Oct'04 Jan'05 Apr'05 Jul'05 Oct'05 Jan'06 Apr'06 Jul'06 Oct'06 Jan'07 Apr'07 Jul'07 Oct'07 Source: Based on World Capacitor and World Semiconductor data Global Paper & Film Units to IC Units Ratio
Slide 11: Global MLCC Capacitor Industry Shipments Volume 1,600 1,400 1,200 $7 $6 $5 Value Volume in Billions 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1997 1999 2005 1996 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 Value in Billions $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Calendar Year Calendar Year 3 yr. 5 yr. 10 yr. CAGR ’05 to ’07: CAGR ’03 to ’07: CAGR ’98 to ’07: 17.6% 21.6% 19.4% 3 yr. 5 yr. 10 yr. CAGR ’05 to ’07: CAGR ’03 to ’07: CAGR ’98 to ’07: 18.1% 8.5% 8.3% Source: Based on World Cap data
Slide 12: Global Tantalum Capacitor Industry Shipments Volume 25 $3.5 $3.0 20 $2.5 15 Value Volume in Billions Value in Billions 2002 2003 2007 $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 10 5 $0.5 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2004 2005 2006 $0.0 1997 2000 2001 2004 1996 1998 1999 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 Calendar Year Calendar Year 3 yr. 5 yr. 10 yr. CAGR ’05 to ’07: CAGR ’03 to ’07: CAGR ’98 to ’07: 1.6% 4.4% 3.4% 3 yr. 5 yr. 10 yr. CAGR ’05 to ’07: CAGR ’03 to ’07: CAGR ’98 to ’07: -0.6% -2.2% 0.1% Source: Based on World Cap data
Slide 13: Global Aluminum Capacitor Industry Shipments Volume 90 80 70 $7 $6 $5 Value Volume in Billions Value in Billions 1997 2004 2005 2006 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2007 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 2004 2005 2006 2007 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Calendar Year Calendar Year 3 yr. 5 yr. 10 yr. CAGR ’05 to ’07: CAGR ’03 to ’07: CAGR ’98 to ’07: -0.9% 2.7% 2.8% 3 yr. 5 yr. 10 yr. CAGR ’05 to ’07: CAGR ’03 to ’07: CAGR ’98 to ’07: 9.1% -0.5% 0.2% Source: Based on World Cap data
Slide 14: Global Paper and Film Capacitor Industry Shipments Volume 30 $2.8 $2.4 $2.0 20 Value 25 Volume in Billions Value in Billions 2002 2003 2007 $1.6 $1.2 $0.8 15 10 5 $0.4 $0.0 1997 2000 2001 2004 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2004 2005 2006 1996 1998 1999 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 0 Calendar Year Calendar Year 3 yr. 5 yr. 10 yr. CAGR ’05 to ’07: CAGR ’03 to ’07: CAGR ’98 to ’07: -2.6% -1.6% -1.6% 3 yr. 5 yr. 10 yr. CAGR ’05 to ’07: CAGR ’03 to ’07: CAGR ’98 to ’07: 6.9% -6.6% -5.0% Source: Based on World Cap data
Slide 15: Global MLCC Capacitor Industry ASP 0.0180 0.0160 0.0140 0.0120 ASP 0.0100 0.0080 0.0060 0.0040 0.0020 0.0000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3-year avg. decline - 9.3% Calendar Year Source: Based on World Cap data
Slide 16: Global Tantalum Capacitor Industry ASP 0.1800 0.1600 0.1400 0.1200 ASP 0.1000 0.0800 0.0600 0.0400 0.0200 0.0000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3-year avg. decline - 4.9% Calendar Year Source: Based on World Cap data
Slide 17: Global Aluminum Capacitor Industry ASP 0.1000 0.0900 0.0800 0.0700 0.0600 ASP 0.0500 0.0400 0.0300 0.0200 0.0100 0.0000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3-year avg. decline - 3.4% Calendar Year Source: Based on World Cap data
Slide 18: Global Paper & Film Capacitor Industry ASP 0.0900 0.0800 0.0700 0.0600 ASP 0.0500 0.0400 0.0300 0.0200 0.0100 0.0000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3-year avg. decline - 4.8% Calendar Year Source: Based on World Cap data
Slide 19: U.S. Passive Component Industry Source: Henderson Electronic Market Forecast (February 2008)
Slide 20: Passive Component Lead Times Ceramic Capacitors Film Capacitors Tantalum Capacitors Resistors Aluminum Electrolytic Capacitors Connectors Mica Capacitors 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: www.TTI.com
Slide 21: Material Trends Supply Chain
Slide 22: Supply Chain Issues • Tantalum     Raw Material Powder Processing Capacity Lead-Frame Material Epoxy √ √ √ √ • Ceramic  Barium Titanate  Metals, Nickel Powder  Carrier Film √ ? √ • Aluminum  Raw Material  Energy √ ?
Slide 23: Technology Trends and Drivers
Slide 24: Technology Trends • Mobility & Connectivity  Smaller, More Portable Products  Wireless • Reduced Number of Circuit • • • • • Connections Increased Reliability Demands Failure Mode Concerns Environmental Issues Declining TCO Lower System Costs • Applications  Reduced Operating Voltages  Increased Frequencies  Converged Functionalities • Working Environments  Higher Temperatures
Slide 25: Technology Drivers • Increased Volumetric Efficiency  Capacitance Extension  Miniaturization & Modularization • Lower Parasitics (ESR/ESL)  Improved performance  Fewer discretes  Embedded discretes • Alternative Materials • Cost Reduction All This Without Compromising:  Reliability  Robustness
Slide 26: TTI Marketing Outlook Webcast Capacitors March 2008
Slide 27: Thank you! Please visit www.ttiinc.com/marketeye for more information