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Web2.0 Internet Trends 



Web2.0 Internet Trends

 

 
 
Tags:  web2.0  technology  internet  stanley  trends 
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Slide 1: Technology / Internet Trends October 18, 2007 Web 2.0 Summit - San Francisco mary.meeker@ms.com / david.joseph@ms.com / richard.ji@ms.com Compiled by Morgan Stanley Global Technology Team Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Customers of Morgan Stanley in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at www.morganstanley.com/equityresearch or can call 800-624-2063 to request a copy of this research. For our latest industry research, please visit www.morganstanley.com/techresearch. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section.
Slide 2: Technology Trends www.morganstanley.com/techresearch • • • • • • • • Tech stock performance strong reflecting future expectations - for now Consumer demand for Internet-enabled services / products is strong Innovation in wireless products is accelerating Storage needs continue to ramp Data center growth is robust Emerging markets pacing next wave of technology adoption Enterprises may be coming out of relative purchasing funk Recession(s) = very serious potential challenge 2
Slide 3: 3 Decades of Tech – Now = 2 Cycles DESKTOP LAN INTERNET CLOUD (broadband + wireless) 3
Slide 4: Tech Stocks Have Outperformed S&P500 YTD… C2007YTD % Return of S&P500 Tech vs. S&P500 20% 15% % Return C2007YTD 10% 5% 0% 1/07 3/07 6/07 9/07 -5% S&P 500 Technology Index S&P 500 Index Source: S&P 500 Information Technology Index and S&P 500 Index daily data from Bloomberg as of 10/15/07 4
Slide 5: …Tech Stocks Have Outperformed S&P500 YTD • Tech underperformed market in 6 of last 7 years • Tech outperformed by 918 basis points YTD (1) • Recent tech stock performance supported by positive earnings revisions • Especially high recent private company valuations reflect market enthusiasm – superior execution required to justify valuations Source: (1) As of 10/15/07; Factset, Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research 5
Slide 6: Consumer Demand for New Internet-Enabled Services / Products is Strong • Strong tech hardware / infrastructure demand related to demand for likes of Yahoo!, eBay, Amazon.com, Google, PayPal, iTunes, MySpace, YouTube, Skype, Facebook, WiFi, 3G… • Consumers = #1 users of semiconductors (vs. IT + government) in 2003 / 2004 – enterprises had driven demand for technology products for most of history • Consumer IP traffic should surpass enterprise for first time in 2008E (Cisco) • IP traffic should nearly double every two years through 2011...with consumer IP traffic growing at 58% and business IP traffic growing at 21% CAGR...key drivers will be high definition video + high speed broadband penetration.' (Cisco) • Technology is evolving faster than most enterprises’ ability to deploy new products / services Source: Cisco, Morgan Stanley Research 6
Slide 7: Innovation in Wireless Products is Accelerating • • • • • • • Apple iPhone, 3 Skype Phone, Amazon Kindle, Google ‘GPhone’… 3G+ = 10% of 3.2B global mobile subscribers in C2007E – 21% (critical mass inflection point) of 3.9B in C2009E (iSuppli) Japan’s mobile data traffic nearly 50% higher than any region…by 2011, rest of Asia-Pacific should surpass Japan (Cisco) 91% of mobile users keep phone within 1 meter reach 24x7 15-20% of mobiles have GPS, 50% within 5 years (L. Gerhardy) (China Mobile 50K survey) Watch for new generation of Internet leaders to capitalize on growing access to fast Internet access on mobiles Incumbent carriers + handset manufacturers still desire to control markets - financial dislocations / costs / opportunities may be substantive as wireless industry evolves over next 2-5 years Source: iSuppli, Cisco, China Mobile, Morgan Stanley Research 7
Slide 8: Storage Needs Continue to Ramp • • • • Consumers expect to connect AND carry mobile devices 50MM+ iPods with 4GB+ storage in use since 9/05 launch 7MM+ mobile phones with 1GB+ storage, up 2-3x Y/Y (K. Huberty) (A. Ahmad) High definition content presents next major step-up in storage capacity requirements – ~40x more bandwidth required to stream DVD-quality movie than mp3 file (K. Huberty) Source: Morgan Stanley Research 8
Slide 9: Data Center Growth is Robust • As users integrate digital technology into daily lives, number of access points increases as does importance of reliability + speed IT effectiveness increasingly becomes competitive weapon • New compute / storage architectures emerging quickly – virtualization + data duplication + thin computing… • Google - cumulative capex = $4.5B @ 21% of Q2 net revenue • VMWare - 90% Y/Y revenue growth in CQ2 Source: Google, VMWare, Morgan Stanley Research 9
Slide 10: Emerging Markets Pacing Next Wave of Tech Adoption • • Non-US PC units = 70%+ of global market, grew 5x US rate in C2006 (K. Huberty) Non-US Internet users = 86% of global users – China + India + LatAm + ROW (38% of total) growing at 30% vs. 3% in US (14% of total), C2007E Non-US mobile users = 92%+ of global users – China + India + LatAm + ROW (43% of total) growing at 30% vs. 11% in US (8% of total), CQ2:07E (Informa) • Global PC Shipment Units (MM) 140 100% 136 139 157 182 207 227 257 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2000E 2001E 2002E 2003E 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E US Western Europe Asia/Pacific Japan Rest of World Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Informa, IDC 10
Slide 11: TMT Update = China / India / Russia / Brazil Gaining Ground 2004 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Country USA China Japan Germany UK India France Italy S. Korea Canada Relative Weighting 9.0 8.2 6.5 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2006 Country USA China Japan Germany India UK France Brazil Russia Italy Relative Weighting 8.7 8.7 6.3 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 From our database on market sizing of global TMT (Technology, Media & Telecommunications) products and services. We measure market sizes and growth rates for core TMT metrics: nominal GDP per capita (current USD); telephone lines; cable subscribers; installed PCs; mobile phones in use; Internet users and credit/debit cards in use. For each economy, we calculate past / present / potential global market weightings across seven TMT metrics - we call this our relative weighting and we use it to measure / rank a country’s propensity for TMT products and services. We standardized each country’s position in the global market in each category and adjusted the values to reflect a positive scale. The relative ratings and ranks were determined by calculating an average of z-scores across categories. For example, in the United States in 2004, standardized and adjusted values of 6.4 in GDP per capita, 8.4 in telephone lines, 11.3 in installed PCs, 7.6 in mobile subscribers, 8.9 in cable subscribers, 10.7 in Internet users, and 9.6 in credit/debit cards produces a relative weighting of 9.0. 2010E relative weightings derived by assuming 2003-2004 growth CAGR for each category to 2010, and ensuring category penetrations were not exceeded. Note: Red indicates countries moving out of the top 10 TMT countries; Green indicates countries moving into the top 10 and highlights China / India Source: Morgan Stanley Research 11
Slide 12: Web 2.0 Driving Enterprise Growth? • Next wave of corporate productivity gains should be paced by Web 2.0 driven collaboration tools that use the network as the platform to enable users to connect ‘any device to any content over any combination of networks’ (John Chambers, CEO, Cisco Systems, 5/22/07) Source: Cisco 12
Slide 13: Enterprises May be Coming Out of Relative Purchasing Funk US-based IT as % of Nominal Business Capital Equipment Spending 60% % of Business Capital Equipment Spending 50% 40% Jun 2007 – 51% 30% Jun 1995 Commercial Internet – 42% Jan 1980 PC Introduction – 28% 20% 10% 0% 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 Tech Spending as a % of Business Capital Equip Spending Extended Trend Line - y = 0.0021x + 0.1453; R2 = 0.9584 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (CQ2:07), Morgan Stanley Research 13
Slide 14: US Productivity on Rise à la 1995? While US non-farm productivity grew nicely from C1995-C2003, rates of growth have waned in recent years but have moved up in last 2 quarters 6 5 4 3 Y/Y % Change 2 1 0 12/80 -1 -2 -3 12/82 12/84 12/86 12/88 12/90 12/92 12/94 12/96 12/98 12/00 12/02 12/04 12/06 Web 1.0 (1995) Quarterly Y/Y change in US non-farm business sector output per hour Web 2.0? Source: Bloomberg (Productivity Non-farming Index), Morgan Stanley Research 14
Slide 15: Recession(s) = Very Serious Potential Challenge... • Impact of US subprime woes should not be underestimated • Average GDP growth rate forecasts for C2008E have already fallen to 2.0% (from 3.0%) over 4 months – a 33% reduction in rate of growth. Average annual GDP growth over past decade = 3.1% • US less relevant to global economy - US share of global GDP has declined steadily since 1999 to 19% of GDP Source: Morgan Stanley Research 15
Slide 16: …Recession(s) = Very Serious Potential Challenge US GDP Declining as % of Global GDP 12,000 22.0 21.5 21.0 Global GDP in $B 8,000 20.5 20.0 6,000 19.5 4,000 19.0 18.5 2,000 18.0 0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 17.5 US GDP as % of Global GDP 16 10,000 US GDP US GDP as % of Global GDP Note: US GDP based on PPP, World GDP based on current prices. Source: IMF, Morgan Stanley Research
Slide 17: Internet Trends • • • • • • • • Strong Internet user growth – fastest in non-US markets Strong broadband growth – with more upside Search continues to improve as content access tool Ongoing share gains to online from offline – large markets to tap Turf wars increasing – core / emerging businesses + M&A High level Web 2.0 trends are compelling Software as a service (SaaS) momentum = strong + broad-based Emerging Internet-enabled devices gaining traction 17
Slide 18: Internet User Growth +16% Y/Y in C2007E – Asia! - Now 42% of Users - 30% in 2000E Asia (547MM users, +24% Y/Y); Europe (336MM, +10%); N. America (211MM, +3%); LatAm (110MM, +17%); ROW (95MM, +27%) Geographic Distribution of Internet Users (MM) 390 100% 490 620 723 850 975 1,120 1,299 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2000E 2001E 2002E 2003E 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E North America Europe Asia/Pacific Latin America Rest of World Note: ROW denotes Rest of the World Source: Morgan Stanley Research 18
Slide 19: Non-US Markets Lead Usage Penetration in Many Categories E-commerce: Germany Online Gaming: China Broadband: S. Korea Mobile Payments: Japan Online Advertising: UK Social Networking: Brazil / S. Korea Microtransactions via SMS: Philippines Source: Morgan Stanley Research 19
Slide 20: China – Internet Market Capitalization - 76% CAGR over 4 Years China public Internet company market capitalization (US$ in B) $50B $50 Total Market Capitalization (US$ in B) $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 YTD (1) 76% CAGR $5B Includes: Sina, NetEase, Sohu, Ctrip, Shanda, 51job, Tencent, Tom Online, Baidu, China Digital TV, Perfect World, CDC Corp, The9, eLong, Kongzhong, China Finance Online, Linktone, Hurray!, New Oriental Education, Home Inns, Netsun, Xinhua Finance Media, Acorn, and Kingsoft (1) Market Capitalization as of 10/15/2007 Source: Morgan Stanley Research 20
Slide 21: Broadband +28% in C2007E to 17% of WW Households vs. 53% of Households with 1+ Telephone Asia (116MM BB subs, +24% Y/Y, CQ1E); Europe (92MM, +29%); N. America (64MM, +20%); LatAm (15MM, +50%); ROW (7MM, +68%) Geographic Distribution of Broadband Subscribers (MM) 167 100% 181 200 217 233 246 260 277 295 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% CQ1:05E CQ2:05E CQ3:05E CQ4:05E CQ1:06E CQ2:06E CQ3:06E CQ4:06E CQ1:07E North America Europe Asia/Pacific Latin America Rest of World 21 Note: ROW denotes rest of the world Source: Informa, Euromonitor, Morgan Stanley Research
Slide 22: Search Impact – Still Early Stage & 70% Y/Y Google Query Growth (CQ2) % Customers acquired from source % of New Online Customers for Online Retailers / Marketing Spend Mix (2005) 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% pr og is on ra -s m ho s pp in Em g en ai lt gi o ne pr s os pe ct Tr in g ad lis i ti ts on al po rta ld ea N ls ew po rta ld ea ls g ffi c s m ar ke O th er 22 36% 29% 11% 10% 7% 5% 3% 3% 1% tin tra O rg an ic C at Af fil ia al og Se ar ch en gi ne Source: The State of Retailing Online 2006 (Forrester Research), comScore 8/07, Morgan Stanley Research C om pa r te
Slide 23: Personalization + Targeting Continue to Improve – Amazon.com’s Revenue per Customer Growth Accelerating Amazon.com recommendation engine: Leveraging data Google ads: Improvements in relevance What other customers are thinking What other customers are buying What other customers are doing What other customers are saying Source: Amazon.com, Google 23
Slide 24: Online Advertising – +26% Y/Y in C2007E – Only 10% of Total Global Ad Spending = $630B in C2007E, +4% Y/Y • 10% of US advertising online ($21B) in C2007E vs. 4% in C2002 and 17% in C2012E • US online advertising +26% Y/Y growth vs. industry growth of +4% in C2007E 6 Internet Advertising Revenue (US$ in B) 5 4 3 2 1 0 CQ1:05 Search CQ2:05 CQ3:05 CQ4:05 CQ1:06 CQ2:06 CQ3:06 CQ4:06 CQ1:07 CQ2:07 Total Y/Y Growth US Internet Advertising Spending 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Total Internet Advertising Y/Y Growth Display + Sponsorship Rich Media Classified Email + Other Source: Universal McCann, Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB), Morgan Stanley Research 24
Slide 25: Online Commerce – +19% Y/Y in CQ2 – 4% of Total US Total Retail Sales = $3.9T in C2006, +6% Y/Y US E-Commerce Sales / Penetration 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 CQ1:05 CQ2:05 CQ3:05 CQ4:05 CQ1:06 CQ2:06 CQ3:06 CQ4:06 CQ1:07 CQ2:07 Adjusted US Retail E-commerce Sales Adjusted E-commerce as a % of Adj. Retail Sales 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Adj. E-commerce as % of Adj. Retail Sales 45 Adj. Retail E-commerce Sales (US$ in B) 4.5% Note: Total Retail does not include travel, financial services, or event ticket sales. E-commerce sales are goods and services where an order is placed by the buyer or price and terms of sale are negotiated over an Internet, extranet, EDI network, e-mail, or other online system. Payment may or may not be made online. Adjusted by adding eBay US Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) and subtracting eBay US Transaction Revenue. Source: US Department of Commerce, eBay, Morgan Stanley Research 25
Slide 26: Online Music – +107% Y/Y in C2006 - 11% of Total Global Total Music Sales = $20B in C2006, -6% Y/Y • 109MM cumulative iPods sold (+86% Y/Y, CQ2); 2.9B cumulative iTunes songs / videos downloaded (+110% Y/Y, CQ2E) Apple iPod / iTunes Growth 120 Total Cumulative iPod Units Sold (MM) 100 80 60 40 20 0 CQ1:05 CQ2:05 CQ3:05 CQ4:05 CQ1:06 CQ2:06 CQ3:06 CQ4:06 CQ1:07 CQ2:07 Total Cumulative iPod Units Sold (MM) Total Cumulative iTunes Songs/Videos Downloaded (B) Source: Apple, IFPI, Morgan Stanley Research 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Total Cumulative iTunes Songs/Videos Downloaded (B) 26
Slide 27: Online Video – YouTube Growth Speaks for Itself Global broadcasting + cable TV revenue = $284B in C2007E, +5% Y/Y • YouTube - 206MM unique global visitors, +185% Y/Y, 21B minutes, +332% Y/Y; other video distribution models: veoh, Joost, Sling Media, VUDU… 250 YouTube Global Traffic 25 Total Unique Visitors (MM) 200 20 Total Minutes (B) 150 15 100 10 50 5 0 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Total Unique Visitors (MM) Total Minutes (B) 0 Source: comScore global 8/07, Datamonitor, Morgan Stanley Research 27
Slide 28: VoIP – Skype Growth +94% Y/Y to 220MM Users (CQ2) – ~7% of Wireless Users / ~5% of Wireline Users Global Telecom Services Revenue of $1.5T in C2007E, +8% Y/Y Skype Users / Monetization 250 Total Registered Skype Users (MM) $1.80 Revenue Per Registered Skype User (Annualized) $1.60 200 $1.40 $1.20 150 $1.00 $0.80 100 $0.60 50 $0.40 $0.20 0 CQ4:05 CQ1:06 CQ2:06 CQ3:06 CQ4:06 CQ1:07 CQ2:07 $0.00 Total Registered Skype Users (MM) Revenue Per Registered Skype User (Annualized) Source: Gartner, iSuppli, International Telecommunications Union (ITU), eBay, Morgan Stanley Research 28
Slide 29: Turf Wars Increasing - Battles for Platforms • Advertising – Google vs. Yahoo! vs. Microsoft vs. attackers (exchanges / networks, performance-based vs. CPM, behavioral vs. contextual, ‘social graph,’ tools - widgets…) • Commerce – Amazon.com vs. eBay vs. Wal-Mart vs. attackers • Payments – PayPal vs. Amazon.com vs. Google vs. mobile • Social Networks – Facebook vs. MySpace vs. Yahoo! vs. Google / Orkut vs. Skype vs. attackers • ‘Traffic’ - As monetization tools improve, value of good traffic should rise • Mobile Devices – Rugby scrum? 29
Slide 30: Strong Web 2.0 Metrics – The Times They are a-Changin’ – Hello Social Networking Alexa Global Traffic Rankings 2005 (1) Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Web site yahoo.com msn.com google.com ebay.com amazon.com microsoft.com myspace.com google.co.uk aol.com go.com Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2007 (2) Web site yahoo.com google.com msn.com youtube.com live.com myspace.com facebook.com orkut.com wikipedia.org hi5.com Traffic rank is based on three months of aggregated historical traffic data from Alexa Toolbar users and is a combined measure of page views / users (geometric mean of the two quantities averaged over time). (1) Rankings as of 12/31/05, excludes Microsoft Passport; (2) Rankings as of 10/15/07 Source: Alexa Global Traffic Rankings, Morgan Stanley Research 30
Slide 31: YouTube • 206MM unique global visitors +185% Y/Y, 21B minutes +332% Y/Y (comScore 8/07) • Added additional site features to encourage community + increase accessibility - users can post video ‘responses,’ subscribe to video content feeds, edit videos online, watch via mobile device • Partnered with media content providers including Warner Music, CBS, Universal Music, Sony BMG, NBC + launched YouTube Partnership program with popular YouTube uploaders such as ‘lonelygirl15’ • Expanding YouTube videos within Google network - 100 media companies in AdSense network running YouTube videos with text / graphical ads to match website content • InVideo Ads: 50 partners will run ads at the bottom 20% of YouTube videos, appearing 15 seconds into the spot Source: Google, YouTube 31
Slide 32: Wikipedia • 211MM unique visitors, +52% Y/Y, 3B minutes, +92% Y/Y (comScore, 8/07) • 8.3MM+ total articles (9/07), mainly from 75K+ active contributors, in 250+ languages with 2.0MM+ articles in English, 649K+ in German, 149K+ articles in Chinese • Go back 20 years – imagine what the cost would have been to compile the data / info that exists (for free) on Wikipedia! Source: comScore global 8/07, Wikipedia 32
Slide 33: Demand | MEDIA • 25MM unique visitors, +109% YTD, 429MM minutes, +316% YTD (comScore, 8/07) • Assets include eNom, eHow, Expert Village, golf link, trails.com… • Allows users to create / distribute / monetize content via 'social media creation platform' + owned verticals / domain names / SEO + Google AdSense. Income deposited in PayPal account • Creates easy-to-use outlet for 'ProAm' content creators Source: comScore global 8/07, Demand | Media 33
Slide 34: Slide • 134MM unique viewers (6/07) with 30% reach in US (comScore, 6/07) • 45MM+ applications and 5MM+ active users • Allows users to create custom photo slide shows with images / animations; 1MM new flash widgets added to network each day – advertisers include AT&T Wireless, Activision, Paramount Pictures, Discovery Channel, Lionsgate Films Source: comScore Widget Metrix 6/07, Slide 34
Slide 35: Digg • 10MM unique visitors, +252% Y/Y, 18MM minutes, +230% Y/Y (comScore, 8/07) • User-driven editorial / selection of content (news, videos, images, etc.) through sharing / discovery / democratization – compare to traditional media determining front-page / lead stories • Site enhancements coming in C2007 include revamped user profiles / dedicated images section / customized alerts / story suggestions (recommendation engine) Source: comScore global 8/07, Digg 35
Slide 36: Joost • 1MM+ beta users while still invite-only; beta launched to public – 10/1 • Streams on-demand TV / video content to the PC – users can also chat with other users watching same program • 15K+ shows, 250+ channels, including Viacom, CBS, Warner Music • 30+ advertisers include Coca-Cola, HP, Procter & Gamble, L’Oreal Rate watched content IM / Chat functionality Add interactive apps / plugins Source: Joost 36
Slide 37: Facebook • Accelerating Y/Y growth with 69MM visitors +348% Y/Y, 15B minutes, +631% Y/Y (comScore, 8/07) • #7 in global minutes (and rising) behind Yahoo!, MSN, Hotmail, YouTube, MySpace, Google (comScore, 8/07) • Self-controlled, flexible yet standardized social network seems to have the right formula for success at the right time • Profiles yesterday...personalized home page today...mobile digital presence tomorrow? • Mesh of communications + media Chart your travels Champion causes • 6K applications, 392MM installations, 29MM usages per day since APIs opened 5 months ago – may be unprecedented ramp (adonomics.com 10/07) • Platform for applications - Top 3rd party apps largely from new companies - 'Top Friends' = 19MM users (16% active); 'Video' = 12MM (9% active); 'Super Wall' - 12MM (12% active) (adonomics.com 10/07) • Opportunity to leverage social graph data to improve user experience (like Amazon.com recommendation engine, etc) + drive user satisfaction and improve monetization may prove compelling • 192 sponsored groups - Apple = 422K members; Victoria’s Secret = 348K; NBA = 115K members (Facebook 10/15) Tout music picks Express yourself through graffiti Source: comScore global 8/07, adonomics.com, Facebook 37
Slide 38: SaaS Momentum = Strong + Broad-Based • • • • • • • • • • • • • Customer Acquisition – Google ads Commerce – Amazon.com, eBay, Blue Nile, Zappos, CafePress, HomeAway, OpenTable, smarter.com, Zillow Payments – PayPal, Bill Me Later VoIP – Skype Customer Management – salesforce.com, RightNow Life Management – MySpace, Facebook, orkut, hi5, Bebo, Cyworld, Skyrock Information Management – Wikipedia, Endeca Content Management – iTunes, YouTube, Yahoo! My Yahoo!, Facebook News Feed, iGoogle, veoh Content Distribution – Adobe, demand | MEDIA Human Resources – Taleo, Kanexa, Success Factors, WorkDay Resource Management – NetSuite, Intuit Web Analytics – Omniture, Visual Sciences, WebTrends, CoreMetrics Merchandise / Marketing – DemandTec, Aprimo 38
Slide 39: Emerging Internet-Enabled Devices Gaining Traction • Nintendo Wii – 9.3MM consoles since 11/06 launch – raised bar with motion sensors + playability (Nintendo, CQ2) Microsoft Xbox Live – ~8MM members since 11/02 launch – raised bar with online playability Apple iPhone – 1MM units in < 3 months vs. ~2 years for 1MM iPods raised bar with ease-of-use + functionality 3 Skype Phone – Opportunity to leverage large / active Skype user base + create a true web-enabled VoIP, social networking, digital presence phone is compelling Amazon Kindle – Wireless book / data downloading – Amazon has loyal / active base of book lovers – we know what Apple did with tunes, could Amazon do same with books? Google ‘GPhone’ – Could the price be right with assist from ads? • • • • • Source: Nintendo, Microsoft, Apple, Morgan Stanley Research 39
Slide 40: 2% of Public Tech Companies Create 100% of Wealth* – A Look at Some of Biggest Winners of Our Day Great Management Team, Constant Culture Improvement X X X X X X X X XX X X X X X X X Huge Market Apple Cisco Dell eBay Google Intel Microsoft Yahoo! X X X X XX X X X Simple, Focused Mission X X X X XX X X X Active, Missionary Founders X O X X X X X X Insane Customer Focus X X X X X X X X Big Annuity Gross -Like Strong (1) Margin Model Board 33 65 19 79 85 53 82 81 X X X X X X XX X X X X X X X X X Source: (1) F2007E for Apple, eBay, Google, Intel, Yahoo!; F2008E for Cisco, Dell, Microsoft; Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley “The Technology IPO Yearbook’ 40
Slide 41: Summary www.morganstanley.com/techresearch • • • • • • • • Consumer pacing strong Internet growth Enterprise playing catch up Competition for ‘platforms’ intensifying – margin pressure? Personalization continues to ramp – Google / Amazon.com / Facebook… Mobiles entering inflection point for Internet usage Battles for mobile supremacy will be very intense Emerging markets (especially Asia) surprising on upside Recession(s) = very serious potential challenge Source: Morgan Stanley Research 41
Slide 42: Appendix + Disclosure Section
Slide 43: Business IT Spending Growth Compelling vs. Non-IT Spending Business IT vs. Business Non-IT Spending Quarterly Growth Rates (Y/Y) 40% 30% 20% Y/Y Growth 10% 0% 1960 -10% 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 -20% Nominal Business IT Spending Quarterly Y/Y Growth Business Non-IT Spending Quarterly Y/Y Growth Note: Growth rates are calculated from nominal values Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (CQ2:07), Morgan Stanley Research 43
Slide 44: 2006 TMT Update Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Country Relative Weighting 8.7 8.7 6.3 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Rank 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 Country Relative Weighting 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 USA China Japan Germany India United Kingdom France Brazil Russia Italy Canada South Korea Norway Australia Spain Netherlands Switzerland Denmark Ireland Sweden Mexico Belgium Austria Taiwan Indonesia Finland Poland Turkey Singapore Greece Hong Kong, China New Zealand Argentina Portugal Israel South Africa Saudi Arabia Czech Republic Malaysia Thailand Colombia Philippines Hungary Iran Chile Venezuela Egypt Vietnam Nigeria Algeria From our database on market sizing of global TMT (Technology, Media & Telecommunications) products and services. We measure market sizes and growth rates for core TMT metrics: nominal GDP per capita (current USD); telephone lines; cable subscribers; installed PCs; mobile phones in use; Internet users and credit/debit cards in use. For each economy, we calculate past / present / potential global market weightings across seven TMT metrics - we call this our relative weighting and we use it to measure / rank a country’s propensity for TMT products and services. We standardized each country’s position in the global market in each category and adjusted the values to reflect a positive scale. The relative ratings and ranks were determined by calculating an average of z-scores across categories. Source: Morgan Stanley Research 44
Slide 45: Disclosure Section The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared by Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, and/or Morgan Stanley Dean Witter C.T.V.M. S.A. and their affiliates (collectively, "Morgan Stanley"). Analyst Certification Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are research analysts. Global Research Conflict Management Policy Morgan Stanley Research has been published in accordance with our conflict management policy, which is available at www.morganstanley.com/institutional/research/conflictpolicies. Important US Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies The following analyst, strategist, or research associate (or a household member) owns securities in a company that he or she covers or recommends in Morgan Stanley Research: Mary Meeker Amazon.com (common stock), eBay (common stock), Intuit (common stock), Microsoft (common stock), Yahoo! (common stock). Morgan Stanley policy prohibits research analysts, strategists and research associates from investing in securities in their sub industry as defined by the Global Industry Classification Standard ("GICS," which was developed by and is the exclusive property of MSCI and S&P). Analysts may nevertheless own such securities to the extent acquired under a prior policy or in a merger, fund distribution or other involuntary acquisition. As of September 28, 2007, Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research: Amazon.com, Apple, Inc., CNET, eBay, Google, GSI COMMERCE, Yahoo!. As of October 4, 2007, Morgan Stanley held a net long or short position of US$1 million or more of the debt securities of the following issuers covered in Morgan Stanley Research (including where guarantor of the securities): Amazon.com, eBay, Intuit, Yahoo!. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley managed or co-managed a public offering of securities of GSI COMMERCE, Intuit, TechTarget, Inc.. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for investment banking services from eBay, Google, Intuit, Microsoft, TechTarget, Inc.. In the next 3 months, Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Activision, Amazon.com, Apple, Inc., CNET, eBay, Electronic Arts, Google, GSI COMMERCE, Intuit, Microsoft, TechTarget, Inc., Yahoo!. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from Apple, Inc., CNET, eBay, Electronic Arts, Microsoft. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has provided or is providing investment banking services to, or has an investment banking client relationship with, the following company: Activision, Amazon.com, Apple, Inc., CNET, eBay, Electronic Arts, Google, GSI COMMERCE, Intuit, Microsoft, TechTarget, Inc., Yahoo!. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has either provided or is providing non-investment banking, securities-related services to and/or in the past has entered into an agreement to provide services or has a client relationship with the following company: Apple, Inc., CNET, eBay, Electronic Arts, Google, Intuit, Microsoft. The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of Morgan Stanley Research have received compensation based upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors, firm revenues and overall investment banking revenues. An employee or director of Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated is a director of Microsoft, Yahoo!. Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated makes a market in the securities of Activision, Amazon.com, Apple, Inc., CNET, drugstore.com, eBay, Electronic Arts, Google, GSI COMMERCE, Intuit, Microsoft, TechTarget, Inc., Yahoo!. Certain disclosures listed above are also for compliance with applicable regulations in non-US jurisdictions. 45
Slide 46: Disclosure Section STOCK RATINGS Different securities firms use a variety of rating terms as well as different rating systems to describe their recommendations. For example, Morgan Stanley uses a relative rating system including terms such as Overweight, Equal-weight or Underweight (see definitions below). A rating system using terms such as buy, hold and sell is not equivalent to our rating system. Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Morgan Stanley Research. In addition, since Morgan Stanley Research contains more complete information concerning the analyst's views, investors should carefully read Morgan Stanley Research, in its entirety, and not infer the contents from the rating alone. In any case, ratings (or research) should not be used or relied upon as investment advice. An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investor's existing holdings) and other considerations. Global Stock Ratings Distribution (as of September 30, 2007) For disclosure purposes only (in accordance with NASD and NYSE requirements), we include the category headings of Buy, Hold, and Sell alongside our ratings of Overweight, Equal-weight and Underweight. Morgan Stanley does not assign ratings of Buy, Hold or Sell to the stocks we cover. Overweight, Equal-weight, and Underweight are not the equivalent of buy, hold, and sell but represent recommended relative weightings (see definitions below). To satisfy regulatory requirements, we correspond Overweight, our most positive stock rating, with a buy recommendation; we correspond Equal-weight and Underweight to hold and sell recommendations, respectively. Coverage Universe Investment Banking Clients (IBC) Stock Rating Category Count % of Total Count % of Total IBC % of Rating Category Overweight/Buy Equal-weight/Hold Underweight/Sell Total 966 1017 317 2,300 42% 44% 14% 330 326 88 744 44% 44% 12% 34% 32% 28% 46
Slide 47: Disclosure Section Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investor's existing holdings) and other considerations. Investment Banking Clients are companies from whom Morgan Stanley or an affiliate received investment banking compensation in the last 12 months. Analyst Stock Ratings Overweight (O). The stock's total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months. Equal-weight (E). The stock's total return is expected to be in line with the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months. Underweight (U). The stock's total return is expected to be below the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 1218 months. More volatile (V). We estimate that this stock has more than a 25% chance of a price move (up or down) of more than 25% in a month, based on a quantitative assessment of historical data, or in the analyst's view, it is likely to become materially more volatile over the next 1-12 months compared with the past three years. Stocks with less than one year of trading history are automatically rated as more volatile (unless otherwise noted). We note that securities that we do not currently consider "more volatile" can still perform in that manner. Unless otherwise specified, the time frame for price targets included in Morgan Stanley Research is 12 to 18 months. 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Slide 49: Disclosure Section 49

   
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