Slide 1: Pep Canadell GCP International Project Office http://www.GlobalCarbonProject.org
Slide 2: The Partnership and Stakeholders Observational Programs IGOS-P [IGCO] IGBP IPCC INTERNATIONAL PROTOCOLS NATIONAL / POLICY GOVERNMENT NATIONAL/REGIONAL CARBON PROGRAMS IHDP CO2 Panel [IOC-SCOR] WCRP
Slide 3: Terrestrial National and Regional Programs Canadian North America Carbon Plan CarboEruope Siberia China Jp LBA SA Australia NZ 2
Slide 4: Ocean National and Regional Programs Hydrographic Sampling Stations Pacific Ocean Courtesy of Chris Sabine Ships of Opportunity Indian Ocean Courtesy of Chris Sabine
Slide 5: Research Goal To develop comprehensive, policy-relevant understanding of the global carbon cycle, encompassing its natural and human dimensions and their interactions.
Slide 6: The Conceptual Framework Perceptions of human welfare Unperturbed C Cycle Perturbed C Cycle Perception of a problem Fossil Carbon Industry Transport Systems Atmospheric Carbon Solubility Pump Climate Change and Variabil. Changes in institutions & technol. Land Use Ecosystem Disturbances Systems Physiology Biological Pump Ocean-use Systems Terrestrial Carbon Ocean/Coastal Carbon
Slide 7: The GCP Mandate 1. To develop a research framework for integration of the biogeochemical, biophysical and human components of the global carbon cycle 2. To synthesize current understanding of the global C cycle and provide rapid feedback to the research and policy communities and general public 3. To develop tools and conceptual frameworks to couple the biophysical and human dimensions of the carbon cycle 4. To provide a global coordinating platform for regional and national carbon programs to improve observation network design, data standards, information and tools transfer, and timing of campaigns and process-based experiments, including the development of data-model fusion schemes, and design of cost effective observational and research networks 5. To strengthen the carbon-related research programs of nations and regions, and those in international programs such as IGBP, IHDP, WCRP, and the observation community, through better coordination, articulation of goals, and development of conceptual frameworks 6. To develop a small number of new research initiatives that are feasible within a 3-5 year time framework on difficult and highly interdisciplinary problems of the carbon cycle
Slide 8: 1. Patterns and Variability 1.1. Enhancing Observations • Coordination & Standardization • Lateral Movement of C • Non-CO2 compounds 2. Mechanisms & Feedbacks 2.1. Mechanisms • Multiple mechanisms in oceans • Multiple mechanisms on land • Integrated anthrop. C emissions 1.2. Model-Data Fusion • Forward and Inverse Modeling • Model-data fusion techniques 2.2. Regional Development • Case studies • Drivers and C consequences • Management options 1.3 Carbon Budgets • Standardized Methodologies • Developing Methodologies • Geographic/Sector Analyses 2.3 Emergent Properties • Carbon-Climate interactions • Carbon-climate-human interactions 3. Future Dynamics 3.1. Biological Control Points • C sequestration • Non-fossil emissions 3.2. FF Emissions Control Points • Mitigation options • Technological changes 3.3 Carbon 21 • Institutional analyses and design • Interactions between adaptat & mitigat. • Interactions between C & others • Tools and approaches for C managem.
Slide 9: Portfolio of Activities & Products Respiration Book CO2 Stabilization Pathways Wk T. Data Assimilation: Data Wk Regional T. C Budgets Confer. Publication Science Framework State-of-the-Art Synthesis Wk Ocean Coordination Wk Annual SSC Meeting Terrestrial Sinks Wk Research Institute Data Assimilation Land Use-Carbon SI 2002 2003 2004
Slide 10: International Project and Affiliate Offices IOC/SCOR-CO2 Panel Paris, France Max Planck Institute Jena, Germany NIES,Tsukuba Japan NCAR,Boulder USA CSIRO,Canberra Australia
Slide 11: Scientific Steering Committee Co-Chairs: Michael Raupach, Australia (IGBP) Robert Dickinson, USA (WCRP) Oran Young, USA (IHDP) Executive Director: Pep Canadell, Australia Michael Apps, Canada Alain Chedin, France Cheng-Tung Arthur Chen, China (Tapei) Peter Cox, UK Ellen Druffel, USA Christopher Field, USA Patricia Romero Lankao, Mexico Louis Philipe Lebel, Thailand Annan Partwardhan, India Monika Rhein, Germany Christopher Sabine, USA Riccardo Valentini, Italy Yoshiki Yamagata, Japan
Slide 12: www.GlobalCarbonProject.org
Slide 13: Focus 1: Patterns and Variability What are the geographical and temporal patterns of carbon sources and sinks? Ocean C Fluxes Terrestrial NPP Takahashi et al. 2002) Cramer et al. 2000) Ocean C Storage (mol m-2) Night Lights Sabine (unpublished) NASA
Slide 14: Data-Model Fusion [Use of multiple streams of datasets] C stock and flux measurements Inventory analyses Process-based information Climate data Remote sensing CO2 column from space Inverse modeling Process-based modeling Retrospective and forward analyses Many others Canadell et al. 2000
Slide 15: Focus 2: Processes, Controls and Interactions What are the controls and feedback mechanisms – both anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic – that determine the dynamics of the carbon cycle on scales of years to millennia? Paleo Naturally dynamics New Biospheric Responses Land Use Change Carbon Storage CO2 fertilization Fossil Fuel Emissions Institutional Responses 0.7 0.6 0.5 Emerging Properties of the coupled system H = humans 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 B = biomass
Slide 16: Focus 2: Carbon Sink Mechanisms Carbon Storage in the Biosphere Plant growth Cold ecosystems Warm ecosystems CO2 fertilization Forest conversion x aCO2 concentration N fertilization x Land use Fe fertilization Temperature Soil respiration x Temperature Nitrogen deposition x Ocean iron deposition
Slide 17: Focus 2: Coupling the Climate-Carbon-Human System (Biogeophysical) Human Dimension (Biogeochemical) Hadley Center Climate Model
Slide 18: Focus 3: Future Dynamics of the Carbon Cycle What are the likely dynamics of the global carbon cycle into the future? IPCC 2001 Friedlingstein et al. 2000 Terrestrial Biosphere C Sink Cramer et al. 2000
Slide 19: GCP-CO2 Panel Workshop: International CLIVAR/CO2 Lines [13-15 Jan. 2003, UNESCO, Paris] Ocean Carbon Research and Observation Activities Hydrographic Sampling Stations Ships of Opportunity • To gather information on activities • To identify gaps and duplications • To produce recommendations • To integrate with other C data
Slide 20: Research Institute Series [2002-2005]: Data Assimilation in C Cycle Research Research, Tool development, Educational, Outreach Atmospheric Data-Model Assimilation, Boulder, Colorado (US), 20 – 31 May 2002 http://dataportal.ucar.edu/CDAS/ • • • • Atmospheric Data-Model Assimilation [2002] Ocean Data-Model Assimilation [2003] Land Data-Model Assimilation [2004] Earth System Data-Model Assimilation [2005]
Slide 21: C Consequences of Regional Development Pathways Contribution to: Advanced Institute on Urbanization, Emission, and the Global Carbon Cycle START-Packard Foundation NCAR, Boulder, Colorado, 4 – 22 August 2003 Integrating carbon management into development strategies of cities and their surrounds in the Asia-Pacific Region: Establishing a network of regional case studies APN proposal submitted Source: Diane Pataki
Slide 22: Energy and Carbon: Options and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas signature over the next 50 years By using a mix of: energy strategies (renewables, conservation, cogeneration, efficiency increases) carbon sequestration (in terrestrial biotic, geological and oceanic sinks) agricultural practices linked with non-CO2 emissions. 1. To assess mitigation and adaptation options against environmental, social and economic (triple-bottom-line) criteria, including: (1) effectiveness (2) technological feasibility; (3) institutional viability; (4) economic viability; (5) social acceptability; (6) non-greenhouse impacts 2. To develop and analyse a suite of pathways (scenarios) Australia as a case study Workshop proposal for 2003
Slide 23: Publication: Land Use and the C Cycle in Asia Pacific Impacts of land use/cover on the C cycle: fire, erosion, plantations, agriculture, pasture APN-GCTE-GCP, Kobe, 2001 Publication due: Dec. 2002
Slide 24: Publication: Terrestrial Sinks and their Policy Relevance Quantifying Terrestrial Carbon Sinks : Science, Technology and Policy Wengen, Switzerland, September 25 - 27, 2002 Wengen Series-GCP-GCTE Publication due: Feb 2004
Slide 25: Atmospheric Composition and Associated Climate Change 1 IPCC 2001
Slide 26: State-of-the-art Synthesis: Towards CO2 Stabilization Toward CO2 Stabilization: Issues, Strategies, and Consequences Wk: Feb. 2003, Ubatuba, Brazil SCOPE-GCP Synthesis Activity Publication due: End 2003 Topics: 1. current status of the carbon cycle; 2. future trends in the carbon cycle; 3. potential for deliberate management of the C cycle; 4. carbon-climate-human interactions. SCOPE Series
Slide 27: Publication: Carbon Oxidation Fluxes and Processes Science: Rh in soils, freshwater, and coastal zones; disturbanc.; land use change. Methods: modeling, scaling, experimental approaches Publication due: 2004 IGBP Book Series Proposal under development
Slide 28: Science Themes • Focus 1: Patterns and Variability – A1.1: Enhancing observational knowledge of major C stores and fluxes – A1.2: Model-data fusion and model development – A1.3: Comprehensive regional and sectoral carbon budgets • Focus 2: Processes, Controls and Interactions – A2.1: Mechanisms and feedbacks controlling carbon fluxes – A2.2: Carbon consequences of regional development pathways – A2.3: Emergent properties of the coupled carbon-climate-human system • Focus 3: Future Dynamics of the Carbon Cycle – A3.1 Future of terrestrial and ocean sinks and sources – A3.2 Future of FF emissions – A3.3: Carbon21 - Integrated management strategies • Synthesis, communication, coordination
Slide 29: Atmospheric CO2 and associated warming 280 180 Thousands of Years (x1000) Global Carbon Project 2001 IPCC 2001