Global Financial Market Review

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Barrack Obama is ploughing US$s, government initiatives and fiscal programs are coming thick and fast, but will mostly be guarantees and credit. The relief euphoria from the headlines will fade into the reality that governments do not have hard cash to inject unless they print it. The resulting deflation is what Obama, Gordon Brown and Trichet are all trying to avoid. Capital based pensions are also financed out of bonds and equity which have fallen significantly and will reduce the disposable income of retirees, adding to all governments burdens. Previous recessions in the US and the UK have never had individuals, corporations and governments all heavily indebted at the same time. April 2009 is where the ll be alrights export manufacturing region) as workers have been laid off following the collapse of consumer spending. China now holds US$650 billion of US Treasuries, which is up US$190 billion over the Slide 14: last year, but their recent purchases have slowed considerably. If you add in other known holdings, analysts suggest that China owns $1 of every $10 of Americabear marketpowers that bet build long term core positions. Look to finesse an exit of other positions before April 2009, as you do not want to wait 25 years to be back in the black. Remember the Dow Jones Industrial took 25 years from the 3 rd September 1929 to 24 th November 1954 to make a new high and the Nikkei 225 is still 77% off the December 1989 peak. This suggests that the FTSE (see the purple line on the chart) should reach 5,100 (up 13% from here) in the expected bear market rally, before resuming a long painful slide over the next 18 months to bottom out around 2,000 (down 70% from the 2007 ultimate peak). </li><li>Currencies The US$ and GBP are likely to continue to decline as central bank rates are kept low, banks are unable to lend and money is printed. The fundamentals of the EUR are better which should support the currency, especially as the greenback is starting to shed its reserve status. The CHF 9 Talbot Court, London EC3V 0BP. Registered in England and Wales No. 6725781) is an Appointed Representative of London Islamic Investment Bank Limited, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Whilst every attempt is made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided, no responsibility can be accepted for any inaccuracy. The information provided cannot be relied upon as constituting a recommendation, nor construed as any offer to sell, or any solicitation of any offer to buy investments. No liability is accepted for any loss whether direct or indirect, incidental or consequential, arising out of any of the information being untrue and / or inaccurate, except caused by the wilful default or gross negligence of EquityBell Securities, its employees, or which arises under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Sound Advice Conclusion Despite a hope filled start to 2009, we suspect we have not seen the worse yet and the world is going to get a whole lot more complicated and dangerous through 2009. The only thing we are guaranteed is volatility and everyone needs to look at their asset allocation and make adjustments. James Vinall is the Senior Investment Officer of EquityBell Securities. James has been in the financial industry for 23 years trading equity derivatives in Hong Kong, Tokyo and London as an investment banker, sales at a hedge fund, advising gregarious trading private clients for a tier one wealth manager, raising money for tech start-ups in private equity before returning to advise active trading private clients. If you wish to discuss investment advice from EquityBell Securities please contact James Vinall at [email_address] or on +44 20 3189 2108 Equity Bell Securities Quay House, 2 Admirals Way, Canary Wharf, London E14 9XG Tel: Slide 15: +44 (0) 20 3189 2105 www.equitybell.com C LEAR AS A B ELL V IEWS ON THE P AST , P RESENT AND F UTURE </li></ol> <!-- disable_ad_section_end() --> </div> <!-- First column ends here --> <!-- Second column begins here --> <div class="span-18 column2"> <!-- =Leads --> <!-- Leads end --> <!-- Presentation details begin here --> <div class="details"> <p class="author"> <span class="addContact h-section-add-contact potential-contact user-1664688"><a href="/signup?from=addcontact&from_source=http %3A%2F%2Fwww.slideshare.net%2Fjamesvinall%2Fglobal-financialmarket-review-presentation" class="h-action-add-contact" title="Add as my contact">+</a></span> <a href="/jamesvinall" title="jamesvinall \| Investment adviser with 23 years market experiance. I cover global equities, fixed income, FX, commodities and derivatives for active trading nondiscretionary private clients. The target is absolute returns using appropriate risk and asset classes" class="userimage-link"> <img src="http://public.slidesharecdn.com/images/userImage_SMALL.gif" alt="James Vinall" /><span class="h-username">James Vinall</span></a><span class="quiet when-uploaded-value">, 10 months ago</span> </p> <p class="embed"> <!-- For expanded view, make it <p class="embed embedExpanded"> --> <span class="clearfix h-embed-allow"> <label for="embed-code">Embed</label> <input class="text quiet h-embed-code" readonly="readonly" id="embed-code" type="text" value="" /> <a href="#" class="ilink h-action-customize" rel="nofollow">custom</a> </span> <span class="h-embed-allow" id="h-customize-embed-section" style="display:none;"> <label for="embed-code">Without related presentations</label> <br /> <input name="embed-code" class="text expanded quiet h-norelembedcode" readonly="readonly" id="embedCodeWithoutRelated" type="text" value="" /> Slide 16: <br /> <label for="embed-code">For WordPress.com</label> <br /> <input name="embed-code" class="text expanded quiet hwpembedcode" readonly="readonly" id="embedCodeWP" type="text" value="" /> <span class="h-post-write-embed"> <script> document.getElementById('embed-code').value = "<div style=\"width:425px;text-align:left\" id=\"__ss_903587\"><a style=\"font:14px Helvetica,Arial,Sansserif;display:block;margin:12px 0 3px 0;textdecoration:underline;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.slideshare.net\/jamesvinall\/globalfinancial-market-review-presentation\" title=\"Global Financial Market Review\">Global Financial Market Review<\/a><object style=\"margin:0px\" width=\"425\" height=\"355\"><param name=\"movie\" value=\"http:\/\/static.slidesharecdn.com\/swf\/ssplayer2.swf? doc=caab-08012009-hope-springs-eternal-12315023142091872&stripped_title=global-financial-market-reviewpresentation\" \/><param name=\"allowFullScreen\" value=\"true\"\/><param name=\"allowScriptAccess\" value=\"always\"\/><embed src=\"http:\/\/static.slidesharecdn.com\/swf\/ssplayer2.swf? doc=caab-08012009-hope-springs-eternal-12315023142091872&stripped_title=global-financial-market-review-presentation\" type=\"application\/x-shockwave-flash\" allowscriptaccess=\"always\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" width=\"425\" height=\"355\"><\/embed><\/object><div style=\"font-size:11px;fontfamily:tahoma,arial;height:26px;padding-top:2px;\">View more <a style=\"text-decoration:underline;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.slideshare.net\/\">presentations<\/a> from <a style=\"text-decoration:underline;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.slideshare.net\/jamesvinall\">James Vinall<\/a>.<\/div><\/div>"; document.getElementById('embedCodeWP').value = '[slideshare id=903587&doc=caab-08012009-hope-springs-eternal1231502314209187-2]'; document.getElementById('embedCodeWithoutRelated').value = "<div style=\"width:425px;text-align:left\" id=\"__ss_903587\"><a style=\"font:14px Helvetica,Arial,Sansserif;display:block;margin:12px 0 3px 0;textdecoration:underline;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.slideshare.net\/jamesvinall\/globalfinancial-market-review-presentation\" title=\"Global Financial Market Review\">Global Financial Market Review<\/a><object Slide 17: style=\"margin:0px\" width=\"425\" height=\"355\"><param name=\"movie\" value=\"http:\/\/static.slidesharecdn.com\/swf\/ssplayer2.swf? doc=caab-08012009-hope-springs-eternal-12315023142091872&rel=0&stripped_title=global-financial-market-reviewpresentation\" \/><param name=\"allowFullScreen\" value=\"true\"\/><param name=\"allowScriptAccess\" value=\"always\"\/><embed src=\"http:\/\/static.slidesharecdn.com\/swf\/ssplayer2.swf? doc=caab-08012009-hope-springs-eternal-12315023142091872&rel=0&stripped_title=global-financial-market-reviewpresentation\" type=\"application\/x-shockwave-flash\" allowscriptaccess=\"always\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" width=\"425\" height=\"355\"><\/embed><\/object><div style=\"font-size:11px;fontfamily:tahoma,arial;height:26px;padding-top:2px;\">View more <a style=\"text-decoration:underline;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.slideshare.net\/\">presentations<\/a> from <a style=\"text-decoration:underline;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.slideshare.net\/jamesvinall\">James Vinall<\/a>.<\/div><\/div>"; </script> </span> </span> </p> <p class="stats"> <span class="view-stats">1462 views</span>, <span class="favstats">0 favs</span>, <span class="embed-stats">0 embeds</span> <a href="#stats-bottom" class="ilink" rel="nofollow">more stats</a> </p> <!-- disable_ad_section_start(weight=0.5) --> <div class="description h-truncated"> <p>EquityBell Securities are a London based investment <a href="#" class="ilink h-truncated" rel="nofollow">more</a></p> </div> <div class="description h-not-truncated" style="display: none;"> <p>EquityBell Securities are a London based investment adviser covering global equities, bonds, FX, commodities and derivatives. 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