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Progressive loss report_0608 

Progressive loss report_0608

 

 
 
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Published:  January 20, 2010
 
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Slide 1: The Progressive Corporation REPORT ON LOSS RESERVING PRACTICES JUNE 2008
Slide 2: Preface The artwork1 on the cover of The Progressive Corporation’s 2008 Report on Loss Reserving Practices represents the Loss Reserving practice of segmenting countrywide data into smaller triangles of data. This act of segmentation creates a clearer and more accurate representation of our business across the country. The primary purpose of this report is to help interested stakeholders better understand our loss reserving process and how it affects our financial results. Reserves in this report refer to loss and loss adjustment expense reserves. The 2008 Report on Loss Reserving Practices is very similar to the 2007 report. However, we updated financial information throughout the report, and we included our latest process enhancements in Section V. As the Appendix is a separate document, you can electronically link to it anywhere that you see the blue underlined word: Appendix. Consistent with Progressive’s culture of self-examination, our analysis of loss reserves demands continuous change and continuous improvement. Each section of this report focuses on a different aspect of our reserving process. • • Section I provides an overview of our financial objectives and results, and explains why accurate reserving is important Section II describes how reserve development affects our financial results, and how we have performed relative to our goal of having total reserves that are adequate and develop with minimal variation Section III defines the types of reserves, how they are related and how we analyze them Section IV describes how and why we estimate our required reserves by segment Section V presents the process enhancements we introduced in 2007 Section VI defines many of the terms we use throughout the report Sections VII and VIII in the Appendix present two case studies of segment reserve reviews – one for loss reserves and one for loss adjustment expense (LAE) reserves, including discussion of the issues we consider and the calculations involved • • • • • The 2008 Report on Loss Reserving Practices was written by Gary Traicoff, Ryan Byrd, Erin Howard, and Martin Hoehler. Despite the technical nature of our reserve analysis, we strive to make this report as accessible and understandable as possible to a wide audience. We welcome your comments so that we may continue to enhance it. Comments and questions should be directed to Al Neis, Corporate Actuary at The Progressive Corporation, 6300 Wilson Mills Road, Mayfield Village, Ohio 44143 or e-mailed to al_neis@progressive.com. 1 Artwork for the cover of this report was designed by Martin Hoehler and Marilyn Piendzik
Slide 3: Safe Harbor Statement Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: Statements in this report that are not historical fact are forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed herein. These risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, uncertainties related to estimates, assumptions and projections generally; inflation and changes in economic conditions (including changes in interest rates and financial markets); the financial condition of, and other issues relating to the strength of and liquidity available to, issuers of securities held in our investment portfolios the accuracy and adequacy of our pricing and loss reserving methodologies; the competitiveness of our pricing and the effectiveness of our initiatives to retain more customers; initiatives by competitors and the effectiveness of our response; our ability to obtain regulatory approval for requested rate changes and the timing thereof; the effectiveness of our brand strategy and advertising campaigns relative to those of competitors legislative and regulatory developments; disputes relating to intellectual property rights; the outcome of litigation pending or that may be filed against us; weather conditions (including the severity and frequency of storms, hurricanes, snowfalls, hail and winter conditions); changes in driving patterns and loss trends; acts of war and terrorist activities; our ability to maintain the uninterrupted operation of our facilities, systems (including information technology systems) and business functions; court decisions and trends in litigation and health care and auto repair costs; and other matters described from time to time in our releases and publications, and in our periodic reports and other documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, investors should be aware that generally accepted accounting principles prescribe when a company may reserve for particular risks, including litigation exposures. Accordingly, results for a given reporting period could be significantly affected if and when a reserve is established for one or more contingencies. Reported results, therefore, may be volatile in certain accounting periods.
Slide 4: Table of Contents Section I – About Progressive Our Business ................................................................................................................ 1 2007 Business Highlights ............................................................................................. 1 Our Financial Objectives .............................................................................................. 1 Relationship Between Loss Reserving and Pricing Functions ..................................... 2 Section II – About Reserves and Development Definition and Stated Goals.......................................................................................... 4 Calendar Year versus Accident Year ........................................................................... 4 Paid Development Patterns.......................................................................................... 5 Reserve Development .................................................................................................. 6 External Reporting of Reserve Changes and Reserve Development .......................... 9 Internal Reporting of Reserve Changes and Reserve Development ......................... 10 Section III – Types of Reserves Loss Reserves ............................................................................................................ 11 Case Reserves ................................................................................................. 11 Incurred But Not Recorded (IBNR) Reserves................................................... 13 Loss Adjustment Expense (LAE) Reserves ............................................................... 15 Salvage and Subrogation ........................................................................................... 16 Involuntary Market Operating Loss Reserves ............................................................ 16 Section IV – Estimating Loss Reserves Segmentation of Reserves for Analysis ..................................................................... 18 Projections of Ultimate Losses ................................................................................... 19 Section V – Process Enhancements Introduced in 2007 Additional segmentation ............................................................................................. 21 Section VI – Terms and Definitions ..................................................................................... 22 Section VII – Case Study: Loss Reserve Review Section VIII – Case Study: Loss Adjustment Expense Reserve Review Appendix Appendix
Slide 5: Section I – About Progressive Our Business The Progressive insurance organization (referred to as “Progressive” or the “Company”) began in 1937. Since that time, we have worked hard to continuously improve our products and services. Today, we offer competitive rates and 24-hour, in-person and online services to personal and commercial auto drivers throughout the United States. We seek to become Consumers’ No. 1 Choice for Auto Insurance through creation of a consumer proposition based on fast, fair and better. The Company predominantly writes insurance for personal and commercial automobiles, as well as motorcycles, recreational vehicles and watercraft. Progressive Insurance is available directly through the Company over the telephone and on the Internet, as well as through more than 30,000 independent insurance agencies that represent the Company and brokerages in New York and California. 2007 Business Overview The Company ranks third in both the U.S. personal auto insurance market and the U.S. commercial auto insurance market, based on premiums written as of year-end 2007. The Company generated an underwriting profitability of 7.4%. The Company had a 3% decrease in net premiums written, but companywide policies in force, our preferred measure of growth, increased 4%. We announced organizational changes in 2007, which brought our Agency and Direct auto as well as our special lines products, together under one Personal Lines organization. We believe this structure will reduce the cost of redundancy that had developed. Our Financial Objectives At Progressive, we measure ourselves against two specific goals designed to maximize the value of our Company. Our most important goal is for our insurance subsidiaries to produce an aggregate calendar year 4% underwriting profit. Second, we seek to grow our business as fast as possible so long as doing so is consistent with our profitability objective and our ability to provide high quality service to our customers. We communicate these two corporate goals to every Progressive employee and work together to achieve them. 2007 resulted in a Return on Shareholders Equity (ROE) of 19.5%2 and a Comprehensive ROE of 17.7%3. Loss reserving is an activity that is central to the achievement of our goals. It involves estimating the magnitude and timing of future claim payments and adjusting expenses for accidents that have already occurred. These estimates take into account not only claims that are in the process of being settled, but also claims on accidents that have happened but have not yet been recorded by the Company. At year-end 2007, Progressive’s estimated gross loss and LAE reserves amounted to $5.9 billion. Our financial policies define our allocation of risk, which is the chance that actual events turn out to be significantly different than expected and result in a loss of capital. Our Risk Management 2 3 Based on net income. Use of Comprehensive ROE is consistent with the Company’s policy to manage on a total return basis and reflects changes in unrealized gains and losses on securities held in our portfolio. For Progressive, Comprehensive ROE consists primarily of: [Net income + changes in unrealized security gains, net of tax] / [average shareholders’ equity]. To review all components of Progressive’s Comprehensive ROE, refer to our Consolidated Statement of Changes in Shareholders’ Equity and related Notes in our 2007 Annual Report to Shareholders, which is attached as an appendix to the Company’s 2008 Proxy Statement. ® ® Net Promoter is a registered trademark of Satmetrix Systems, Inc. Page 1
Slide 6: area identifies, quantifies, and in some instances manages risks to which Progressive is subject. Our risks are classified into the following three categories: • • • Operating – Monitor pricing and reserving discipline Financing – Maintain sufficient capital to support insurance operations Investing – Maintain a liquid, diversified, high-quality investment portfolio Loss reserving is an operating risk because significant variations in loss reserve estimates affect our operating profit and our ability to price accurately. Relationship Between Loss Reserving and Pricing Functions Unlike most industries, insurers do not know their costs until well after a sale has been made. Therefore, one of the most important functions for an insurance company is to set rates, or “pricing.” The goal of our pricing function is to properly evaluate future risks the Company will assume but has not yet written. Estimates of future claim payments are essential for accurately measuring Progressive’s underwriting profit and for determining whether pricing changes are needed to achieve the Company’s underwriting target. Reserve estimates that are too low can lead to the conclusion that pricing is adequate when it is not, so we may fail to achieve our underwriting target in future periods, and we may experience unprofitable growth. Reserve estimates that are too high may lead to inflated prices, potentially limiting competitive opportunities. Our product-focused business units continue to seek ways to advance the science of rate making to achieve accurate cost-based pricing at the finest level our data will support. This allows us to more accurately match our rates with expected loss costs by risk classification. The role of the pricing function is to determine rates that are adequate to achieve our profitability goals without being excessive or unfairly discriminatory to consumers. Although the pricing function is very different from the loss reserving function, the data used is consistent among the functions. Typical information that the loss reserving area shares with the pricing organization includes: • • • • • • • • • Overall changes in the level of reserves by type of reserve (see Section III) History of claim development and selected ultimate losses by accident period Changes in selected ultimate loss amounts over time Selected severity by historical accident period and resulting trends Selected frequency by historical accident period and resulting trends Changes in actuarially determined case average reserves by age (see Section III) Changes in the level of average adjuster-set case reserve estimates (see Section III) Changes in claim closure rates Changes in the rate of claims closed without payment (CWP rate) Judgments made by both the loss reserving and pricing areas consider additional issues. Growth and process changes may cause claims to settle faster or slower than previous experience. Changes made by state insurance departments, changes in the mix of business, and changes in the underwriting process may also contribute to unexpected changes in the data. We use a cost-plus strategy in pricing, beginning with the projected ultimate losses and LAE. The Pricing Department estimates the ultimate losses and LAE for each coverage for the state under review. Their projection methods are similar to those used by the loss reserving area, as described in Section IV. Trend selections have a significant impact on how much the rates will change. Changes in the average cost of a claim (severity trend), changes in the proportion of insured cars that have a Page 2
Slide 7: claim (frequency trend), and changes in average premium adjusted for current rate levels (premium trend) are analyzed and selected. The loss reserving team meets regularly with the product management, pricing and claims teams to discuss these issues. Page 3
Slide 8: Section II – About Reserves and Development Definition and Stated Goals Reserves are liabilities established on the Company’s balance sheet as of a specific accounting date and are estimates of the unpaid portion of what the Company ultimately expects to pay out on claims. They are estimates of future payments for insured events (claims) that occurred by the accounting date, whether or not those claims have been reported to the Company. These estimates are reported net of the amounts recoverable from salvage and subrogation. Loss reserves are the Company’s best estimate of future payments to claimants, and loss adjustment expense (LAE) reserves are the estimated future expense payments related to claims settlement. The types of reserves are explained further in Section III. We estimate the needed reserves based on facts and circumstances known at the time of the reserve evaluation. There is inherent uncertainty in the process of establishing property and casualty loss and LAE reserves, caused in part by changes in the Company’s mix of business (by state, policy limit, etc.), changes in claims staffing and claims processes, inflation on automobile repair costs and medical costs, changes in state legal and regulatory environments, and unexpected judicial decisions regarding lawsuits, changes in theories of liability, and interpretation of insurance policy provisions. The Company’s goal is to ensure that total reserves are adequate to cover all loss costs while sustaining minimal variation from the time reserves are initially established until losses are fully developed. The Corporate Actuary is accountable for the reserve adequacy and accuracy. The loss reserving area reports to the Corporate Actuary and is part of the corporate finance department. Product management and pricing are in the three marketing areas -- Personal Auto, Commercial Auto and Special Lines (RV, motorcycle, boat, etc.). The loss reserving area works closely with the marketing and claims areas to fully understand the underlying data used in our reviews. The Corporate Actuary uses this information to make the reserving decisions independent of the marketing and claims areas. In order to make the most accurate estimation, we analyze our reserves by “loss reserving segments of business,” which Loss Reserving generally defines by state/product/coverage groupings with reasonably similar loss characteristics, (see Glossary.) Reserve estimation and segmentation are further explained in Section IV, and our analysis of reserves is described in greater detail in the Appendix, which presents reserve reviews for losses and loss adjustment expenses for sample segments, including discussion of the issues we consider during the analysis and the calculations involved. Calendar Year versus Accident Year Financial statements report data on a calendar year basis. However, payments and reserve changes may be made on accidents that occurred in prior years, thus not giving an accurate picture of the business that is currently insured. Therefore, it is important to understand the difference between calendar year and accident year losses. (Note that calendar year and accident year concepts may be applied to periods other than annual periods. Calendar Period Losses consist of payments and reserve changes that are recorded on the Company’s financial records during the period in question, without regard to the period in which the accident occurred. Calendar period results do not change after the end of the period, even as new claim information develops. Page 4
Slide 9: Accident Period Losses consist of payments and reserves that are assigned to the period in which the accident occurred. Accident period results will change over time as the estimates of losses change due to payments and reserve changes for all accidents that occurred during that period. Projection of ultimate losses by accident period is an important part of the reserve analysis. Paid Development Patterns Incurred losses consist of payments and reserve changes, so it is important to understand paid development patterns. The longer a claim is expected to stay open (not settled), the more difficult it is to establish an accurate reserve at the time the accident is reported. Since injury claims tend to take longer to settle than property claims, a company’s total reserve estimates for injury claims are more sensitive to the uncertainties mentioned above, such as changes in mix of business, inflation, and legal, regulatory and judicial issues. As more information is obtained about open claims, the reserves are revised accordingly. The ultimate amounts, however, are not known until the claims are settled and paid. The following chart compares the time it takes to settle a typical portfolio of bodily injury liability claims versus a typical portfolio of property damage liability claims. Each annual development point represents the cumulative percent of losses paid for accidents that occur in the first year. 100% Exhibit 1 Paid Development Patterns Bodily Injury and Property Damage Claims C u m u la tiv e P e r c e n t o f L o s s e s P a id F o r A c c id e n ts O c c u r rin g in F ir s t Year 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 0 1 2 3 Years of Development From Beginning of Accident Year Property Damage Bodily Injury 4 5 Page 5
Slide 10: Reserve Development Ultimate paid losses and loss adjustment expenses may deviate, perhaps substantially, from point-in-time estimates of reserves contained in the Company’s financial statements. The Company’s actual claims payments in subsequent calendar years may exceed or may be less than the year-end carried loss reserves causing losses incurred by the Company in subsequent calendar years to be higher or lower than anticipated. Changes in the estimated ultimate cost of claims are referred to as development. There are several ways for reserve development to occur. They are: • • • • Claims settle for more or less than the established reserves for those claims Adjuster-set reserve estimates on open (reported) claims change Average reserves set by the loss reserving area for open (reported) claims change Unreported claims emerge (i.e., they are reported after the accounting date) at a rate greater or less than anticipated. This can be due to either or both of the following: o The actual number (frequency) of “late reported” claims differs from the estimate o The average amount (severity) of these claims differs from the estimate Loss reserving area’s estimates of future emergence patterns on unreported claims change Salvage and subrogation recoveries are greater or less than anticipated Changes in earned premium affect carried IBNR (incurred but not recorded) reserves, which are calculated as a percentage of earned premium. • • • Exhibit 2 illustrates Progressive’s reserve development over the past ten years. It shows the booked reserves at each year-end, and the re-estimated reserves at each subsequent year-end (down the column for each original accounting date). The last “diagonal” on the chart (highlighted) represents our evaluation as of December 31, 2007, of reserves for each respective year-end. The difference between the current evaluation (last diagonal) and the original booked amount of reserves in each column represents cumulative reserve development for that accident year and all prior accident years combined. This measures our performance against the goal, stated above, that total reserves are intended to be adequate and to develop with minimal variation. Exhibit 2 Analysis of Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense (LAE) Development (in millions of dollars) (unaudited) For years ended December Loss and LAE reserves, net 1997 $1,867.5 1998 $1,945.8 1999 $2,200.2 2000 $2,785.3 2001 $3,069.7 2002 $3,632.1 2003 $4,346.4 2004 $4,948.5 2005 $5,313.1 2006 $5,363.6 2007 $5,655.2 Re-estimated reserves as of: One year later Two years later Three years later Four years later Five years later Six years later Seven years later Eight years later Nine years later Ten years later Cumulative Development: conservative/(deficient) Percent of Orig Reserves 1,683.3 1,668.5 1,673.1 1,669.2 1,664.7 1,674.5 1,668.4 1,673.9 1,675.5 1,680.8 $ 186.7 10.0% $ 1,916.0 1,910.6 1,917.3 1,908.2 1,919.0 1,917.6 1,921.9 1,923.4 1,928.5 2,276.0 2,285.4 2,277.7 2,272.3 2,277.5 2,284.9 2,287.4 2,291.9 2,686.3 2,708.3 2,671.2 2,666.9 2,678.5 2,683.7 2,688.4 3,073.2 3,024.2 2,988.7 2,982.7 2,993.7 3,002.5 3,576.0 3,520.7 3,459.2 3,457.8 3,475.4 4,237.3 4,103.3 4,048.0 4,070.0 4,592.6 4,485.2 4,501.6 5,066.2 5,130.5 5,443.9 17.3 0.9% $ (91.7) $ -4.2% 96.9 3.5% $ 67.2 2.2% $ 156.7 4.3% $ 276.4 6.4% $ 446.9 9.0% $ 182.6 3.4% $ (80.3) -1.5% Page 6
Slide 11: The reserves set as of December 31, 2006 were deficient, which means that over the course of 2007, reserves developed unfavorably. In other words, claims cost us more than we originally estimated. Reserves that are conservative can lead to over-pricing, which may limit competitive opportunities. Reserves that are deficient can lead to under-pricing, which may contribute to unprofitable growth. It is important to recognize both favorable and unfavorable development as quickly as possible, so that these inefficiencies are corrected. As seen in Exhibit 2, 1999 was the only other year in the past decade to show unfavorable reserve development. The favorable reserve development from 1996 through 1998 was primarily due to decreasing bodily injury severity. The reserves established as of the end of each year assumed that the current accident year’s severity would increase over the prior accident year’s estimate. As the experience continued to be evaluated at later dates, the realization of the decreased severity resulted in favorable reserve development. Late in 1998, the Company started experiencing an increase in bodily injury and personal injury protection severity. As a result, the reserve development for 1998 through 2001 has been much closer to our original estimate. The favorable development through year-end 2006 reflected more modest increases in severity than originally estimated. The unfavorable development in 2007 was driven by the unfavorable settlement of several outstanding lawsuits, the emergence of more large losses than expected from prior years, along with the reviews of larger bodily injury and uninsured motorist claims. Exhibit 2 quantifies the amount of unfavorable development in 2007 at the bottom of the 2006 column, showing $80.3 million (or 1.5% of total reserves) unfavorable development from accident years prior to 2007, which represents 0.6% of our 2007 earned premium. We make many projections in loss reserve analyses that may change as the claims mature. The least mature claims are those that occurred during the most recent accident year, so the Company believes that the estimated severity for the 2007 accident year is the projection with the highest likelihood of change. For further discussion of the 2007 results, and how they are affected by loss and LAE reserves, see “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in the Company’s 2007 Annual Report to Shareholders, which is attached as an appendix to the Company’s 2008 Proxy Statement. Note the following points regarding unpredictability in establishing our reserve liability: • • • Reserve development on claims that settle more slowly (e.g., bodily injury liability claims) can be highly variable and challenging to evaluate. Regardless of how close the initial accident year estimates are, they will never be exactly right, and there will always be development until all claims are settled. Years in which we experience significant reserve development in either direction are learning experiences, affording us the opportunity to get better at estimating future reserves. In addition, loss reserves can only be established for events that have already occurred. Property and Casualty companies cannot establish reserves for catastrophic events that may occur in the future. These events can cause substantial fluctuations in monthly results when they do occur. Page 7
Slide 12: Reserve development influences reported earnings. Current year reported earnings may be under-stated (relative to accidents that occur in the current year) when either or both of the following items occur: • • There is unfavorable development of prior accident years during the current year. Reserves for accidents that occur in the current year are over-estimated (i.e., subsequent evaluation shows favorable development of these reserves in future years). On the other hand, current year reported earnings may be over-stated when the opposite of these items occurs. Exhibit 3 shows how reported earnings per share (EPS) are affected by the reserve development in Exhibit 2. It shows the reported EPS and what the EPS would have been if the Company had no reserve development, i.e., if current year earnings were based on only current year accidents. Each year’s adjusted EPS excludes prior accident years’ development during the current year and includes future development of the current accident year, estimated as of December 31, 2007. The following examples describe this relationship for three of the years shown on the exhibits. • In 1998, the reported earnings were over-stated. This was mainly due to year-end 1997 reserves (for accident years 1997 and prior) developing favorably during 1998, reducing incurred losses and increasing earnings during calendar year 1998. In 1999, the reported earnings were also over-stated. In this case it was mainly due to the under-estimated (deficient) reserves for 1999 accidents. In 2000, the reported earnings were under-stated. This was due to a combination of the year-end 1999 reserves (for accident years 1999 and prior) developing unfavorably during 2000, and the reserves for 2000 accidents being over-estimated (conservative). • • Exhibit 3 2.50 Earnings Per Share* Impact of Reserve Development 2.04 2.10 1.88 1.74 1.65 1.51 1.42 1.53 1.72 2.00 1.91 Earnings Per Share (Dollars) 1.50 1.00 0.75 0.51 0.39 0.33 0.25 0.05 0.19 0.81 0.50 0.46 0.44 0.00 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Earnings Per Share on Calendar Year Basis (Reported) Earnings Per Share on Accident Year Basis (Estimated as of 12/31/2007) *Adjusted for the May 18, 2006 4-for-1 stock split. Page 8
Slide 13: External Reporting of Reserve Changes and Reserve Development Since reserve changes affect earnings, our monthly earnings releases show actuarial reserve changes by reporting segment (Personal Lines, Commercial Auto and Other) and further by channel (Agency and Direct) for Personal Lines. We also report reserve development monthly, in addition to the quarterly and annual statutory reporting requirements. This information for the current month and year-to-date is included in the “Supplemental Information” section of our monthly earnings releases. The following data is from our December 2007 earnings release and is unaudited: December 2007 Year-to-Date ($ in millions) Net Premiums Earned Actuarial Adjustments Reserve Decrease/(Increase) Prior accident years Current accident year Calendar year actuarial adjustment Prior Accident Years Development Favorable/(Unfavorable) Actuarial adjustment All other development Total development Calendar year loss/LAE Ratio Accident year loss/LAE Ratio Companywide Total $13,877.4 $37.3 (37.1) $0.2 $37.3 (117.6) $(80.3) 71.5 70.9 The table shows that we decreased our loss and LAE reserves during 2007 by $0.2 million as a result of regularly scheduled actuarial reviews. Each month, we generally complete between 50 and 100 reviews, representing about 25% of our total amount of reserves. Some reviews result in increases to the carried reserves while others result in decreases. The total change is reported as “Actuarial Adjustments” in the table. A reserve decrease is shown as a positive value on the earnings report because it increases our earnings for the reporting period. Reserve changes that impact 2007 accident-year claims totaled $37.1million, while reserves for claims in prior accident years were decreased by $37.3 million. However, this actuarial reserve decrease, which applies to claims in prior accident years, makes up a portion of the prior year development. As stated earlier in this section, favorable or unfavorable development is due to a combination of factors. The actuarial adjustment of $37.3 million favorable includes changes to averages on open claims, and the estimated emergence of claims that were unreported as of prior year-end. The “all other development” of $117.6 million unfavorable includes claims settling for more or less than the established reserves, changes to adjuster-set reserve, actual emergence of claims that were different than the expected emergence, and salvage and subrogation recoveries greater or less than expected. The total prior accident years’ development listed above ties back to the “cumulative development” listed in Exhibit 2. Through December 31, 2007, including both actuarial adjustments and all other development, the total prior accident years’ development was unfavorable by $80.3 million. In other words, with updated information as of December 31, 2007, Page 9
Slide 14: we estimated that our reserves as of December 31, 2006, should have been $80.3 million higher than they were. The $80.3 million unfavorable prior accident years’ development as of December 31, 2007 is included in our current calendar year results. As a result, our current calendar year incurred loss and LAE ratio of 71.5 is higher than our current accident year incurred loss and LAE ratio of 70.9. The difference of .6 points reflects the $80.3 million unfavorable development through December 31, 2007, divided by the net earned premium of $13,877.4 million for the same period. Reserve changes made as a result of actuarial reviews are intended to keep our current reserve liability adequate for the business reviewed. We change the reserves for the reviewed business based upon current information and our projections of expected future development. This is not the same as the aggregate development of prior year-end reserves. Internal Reporting of Reserve Changes and Reserve Development After completing each segment review, loss reserving analysts send summaries of the reviews to all affected areas of the Company. The loss reserving group meets with product management, pricing, and claims to exchange information regarding development, trend and other issues considered in arriving at the reserve change. Their participation allows Loss Reserving to better understand changes in processes and business operations that may be affecting the underlying paid and incurred data. Incurred data includes paid data, as well as reserve activity. To help product management understand the case reserve changes shown on their income statements, we provide monthly “Decomposition (Decomp) Reports” that summarize the changes in the following categories. (Note that these terms are explained in Sections III and VI.) • • • • • • • • • • Features that closed Features that opened (including reopened features) Changes in reserve averages on new features (due to loss reserving) Changes in reserve averages on open features (due to loss reserving) Inflationary impact on open features (inflation factor applied to average reserves) Aging of open features (features moving to the next age grouping) Changes from adjuster-set to average reserve (reserve amount changes from above threshold to below threshold) Changes from average reserve to adjuster-set (reserve amount changes from below threshold to above threshold) Changes in adjuster-set reserves (reserve amount changes, but stays above threshold) Changes due to resegmentation of data The business units are also provided with updated information regarding the impact of prior accident years’ development on their current calendar year results. We track case reserve development (on claims recorded as of the prior year-end) separately from IBNR reserve development (on claims not recorded as of the prior year-end). This allows us to retrospectively test our prior assumptions and apply that knowledge in future judgments. It also helps the business managers better understand how their earnings are affected by reserve development. Page 10
Slide 15: Section III – Types of Reserves Reserves are considered an operating liability on our balance sheet. At the end of 2007, we reported a $5.9 billion reserve liability ($5.7 billion net of reinsurance) on our balance sheet. We separate reserves into two categories: loss and loss adjustment expense (LAE). While each of these two reserve categories is reported in aggregate on the balance sheet, when we analyze the reserves, we further break them into two distinct types: case and IBNR. In this section, we discuss these reserve types and how we evaluate them to achieve a total reserve balance as accurate as possible. Exhibit 4 illustrates the types of reserves as a percent of our total reserve liability as of December 31, 2007. Eighty-one percent of our reserve liability (Loss case + Loss IBNR) was set aside to pay claimants while 19% of our reserve liability (LAE case + LAE IBNR combined) was established to accommodate costs associated with adjusting those claims. These costs are described in more detail later in this section. Exhibit 4 Reserve Distribution: Progressive Insurance (12/31/07) Total LAE 19% Loss Case 65% Loss IBNR 16% Loss Case Loss IBNR Total LAE Loss Reserves We evaluate our total indicated loss reserve need by sorting and analyzing claims by accident date. This analysis, discussed in detail in Section VII of the Appendix, is completed concurrently with the evaluations of case and IBNR reserves for the same segmentation of business. Case Reserves Loss case reserves represented 65% of our total carried reserves at December 31, 2007. Case reserves are estimates of amounts required to pay claims that have already been reported and recorded into Progressive's systems, but have not yet been fully paid. We evaluate our indicated case reserve need, as discussed in Section VII of the Appendix, by sorting and analyzing claims by record date, or the date the claim was recorded by the Company. For each open claim, the case reserve that is carried on the Company’s books (the financial reserve) is either an average reserve (determined by the loss reserving area) or an adjuster-set reserve. Average Reserves: All open claims estimated to cost the Company less than a predetermined dollar threshold (explained below) are assigned an average reserve, regardless of the individual Page 11
Slide 16: claim characteristics. When a claim is first recorded by the Company, there may not be enough known about the claim for an adjuster to determine its severity. The use of average reserves allows claims personnel to concentrate their efforts on adjusting claims rather than merely accounting for them. Also, average reserves are not as affected by changes in claims processes, and they provide more accurate financial reporting in aggregate. The loss reserving department determines the average reserves, which vary by segment. In the months that a segment is not reviewed, an inflation factor is applied to the average reserves. The inflation factor is generally based upon our projected severity trend from the segment’s most recent actuarial analysis. Once an average reserve is assigned to a claim, we monitor the age of a claim. The age of a claim is defined as the length of time from the accident date to the current accounting date. More severe bodily injury claims tend to remain open longer than less severe claims and tend to be more expensive due to litigation, medical treatments, etc. In order to recognize this cost differential, the average reserve increases as the claim ages. However, the averages for property damage, comprehensive, and collision claims are not increased for age since they tend to settle more quickly, and the length of time since the accident is not normally related to their severity. Adjuster-Set Reserves: Our objective is to use the average reserve for claims with a more predictable level of severity. However, the ultimate cost for claims above a predetermined dollar threshold (which may differ by coverage) can vary significantly depending on individual claim characteristics. For claims above the threshold, our financial reserves include the adjuster-set reserve rather than the average reserve. The adjuster-set reserves more accurately estimate the ultimate liability for claims in excess of the threshold because the adjusters have typically spent a great deal of time on these larger claims and understand their unique characteristics. While only about 3.1% of our total open claim count for personal auto bodily injury is above the current threshold, these claims represent about 28% of our total personal auto bodily injury case reserve liability (as of year-end 2007). Additional Needed Case Reserves (ANCR): We carry additional needed case reserves (ANCR) to cover expected future emergence and development for the loss layer above the threshold. These are actuarially determined reserves that are allocated across segments using ANCR factors which are applied mechanically to each claim. This process is not intended to improve the accuracy of individual claims, but to establish the total needed reserves for this loss layer. ANCR factors vary by segment and by age, and are applied to bodily injury and uninsured/underinsured motorist bodily injury reserve estimates in excess of the applicable threshold. These factors decrease as the claims age because the need for this reserve diminishes as more claims emerge into this layer and the adjusters have more information regarding their value. We determine the ANCR during our review process by analyzing the development of claims over the threshold. Example: Exhibits 5 and 6 illustrate the life of a hypothetical auto bodily injury claim. When the claim was originally recorded, we assigned the actuarially determined average reserve of $5,829. As the claim aged from the time it was recorded in February through the end of September, the average reserve changed due to inflation, results of actuarial reserve reviews and aging. Over this same period of time, the adjuster increased the reserve estimate (red line) multiple times as more information was obtained about the claim. When the adjuster’s estimate multiplied by the ANCR factor exceeded the sample threshold of $75,000, the financial reserve changed from an average reserve to an adjuster-set reserve. Page 12
Slide 17: Exhibit 5 Example of Case Reserving Over the Life of a Large Bodily Injury Claim Private Passenger Automobile Policy Limit = 300,000 Threshold = 75,000 State XYZ Inflation Factor = 6% per year (Excludes Loss Adjustment Expense) Month-End Transaction Date Claim Activity 1/5/06 Accident Occurs Claim is Reported Claim is Recorded Age of Claim (months)* 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 18 19 19 Adjuster Estimate of Claim Amount N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 90,000 N/A Case Reserve Carried on Company Books Amount Paid Explanation of Reserve Change 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 90,000 90,000 Jan-06 2/12/06 2/15/06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 5/20/06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 8/10/06 Aug-06 Sep-06 10/25/06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 3/10/07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 7/15/07 Jul-07 Claim is Paid Adjuster revises estimate Adjuster revises estimate Adjuster revises estimate Adjuster sets up reserve IBNR 5,829 7,121 7,157 8,391 8,433 9,789 10,250 10,301 87,500 87,500 87,500 80,500 80,500 92,000 92,000 88,000 88,000 0 Aggregate amount based on factor of EP for Segment Claim is in "Pipeline"; Still IBNR No estimate yet made by adjuster Actuarially determined Average Reserve for 1-2 mo. Age group Aging to 3-4 mo. Age group & Inflation Inflation This is below the Effective Threshold** Actuarial review & Aging to 5-6 mo. Age group Inflation Aging to 7-12 mo. Age group & Inflation This is below the Effective Threshold** Actuarial review revised Averages Inflation ANCR Factor for 7-12 mo. Age group = 1.25 (70,000) X (1.25) is greater than 75,000 ANCR Factor for 13-24 mo. Age group = 1.15 (70,000) X (1.15) is still greater than 75,000 (80,000) X (1.15) Actuarial review revised ANCR Factor to 1.10 (80,000) X (1.10) Claim is Closed * Age = [(# days since accident) / (30 days)] rounded up to the next whole number ** Effective threshold is (75,000) / (ANCR factor for age of claim) Exhibit 6 100,000 90,000 Case Reserve Amount 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 A pr -0 6 $75,000 Threshold Example of Case Reserving Over the Life of a Large Auto Bodily Injury Claim Accident Occurred in January, 2006 Recorded in February, 2006 Claim Settled in July, 2007 for $90,000 Adjuster Estimate + ANCR Average Reserves set by Actuaries; Changes due to Aging, Inflation, Reviews A ug -0 6 A pr -0 7 -0 6 06 07 N ov -0 6 D ec -0 6 Fe b06 Fe b07 -0 6 -0 6 -0 6 M ar -0 6 M ar -0 7 ct -0 6 Ja n- Ja n- -0 7 M ay Ju n M ay Se p Month-End Case Reserve Carried on Company Books Adjuster Estimate of Claim Amount Incurred But Not Recorded (IBNR) Reserves We establish a reserve for claims that have occurred, but have not been reported by the claimants or recorded by the Company as of the accounting date. Incurred But Not Recorded (IBNR) Reserves are estimates of the amounts needed to pay these claims. At year-end 2007, the loss IBNR reserves were 16% of our total carried reserves. The IBNR reserve need is evaluated by the same segmentation process used for case reserves. We perform this analysis by sorting historical claims according to the time lag between the accident dates and the dates that these claims were recorded by the Company. The case study in Section VII of the Appendix shows a detailed IBNR reserve analysis. Page 13 Ju n Ju l O -0 7
Slide 18: Late reported claims are evaluated to determine the estimated ultimate losses for each accident quarter within each lag period. For example, "lag 1" consists of claims for which the accidents occurred during one quarter but were not recorded until the next quarter. Similarly, "lag 2" consists of all claims for which the accidents occurred during one quarter but were recorded by the Company two quarters later. “Lag 0” claims were recorded in the same quarter they occurred. Exhibit 7 below shows our approximate percent of recorded features by record quarter lag for personal auto bodily injury. This exhibit shows that about 85% of our features are reported by the claimant and recorded in our systems by the end of the quarter in which they occurred. However, about 15% of the features have not been recorded by the end of the accident quarter and we therefore need to estimate IBNR reserves for these claims. Exhibit 7 Countrywide Personal Auto Bodily Injury RECORDED FEATURE COUNT Lag Quarters* Lag 0 Lag 1 Lags 2-3 Lags 4-6 Lags 7-9 Lags 10+ Incremental % 84.9% 11.1% 2.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% Cumulative % 84.9% 95.9% 98.0% 99.1% 99.7% 100.0% * Record Quarter = Accident Quarter Plus Lag Percent of Recorded Features by Record Quarter Lag Auto Bodily Injury Liability 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Cum ulative Percent Recorded Lag 0 Lag 1 Lags 2-3 Lags 4-6 Lags 7-9 Lags 10+ The reserve analysis develops estimated IBNR factors based on the needed reserves by age divided by the earned premium for each age group. The carried IBNR reserves are calculated at the end of each month (by segment) by applying these IBNR factors to trailing periods of earned premium for the past three to four years. For most coverages the largest IBNR factors are applied to the premium in the most recent accident quarters because of their greater IBNR reserve need. The IBNR reserves change with our premium volume, allowing these reserves to keep up with growth, inflation, business mix, etc. Page 14
Slide 19: Loss Adjustment Expense (LAE) Reserves In addition to loss payments (which indemnify claimants), the Company incurs expenses in the process of settling claims. Therefore, we need to establish a reserve liability to cover estimated loss adjustment expenses (LAE) as loss reserves develop. There are two categories of LAE: Defense and Cost Containment (DCC) and Adjusting & Other (A&O). Defense and Cost Containment includes all defense, litigation and medical cost containment expenses, including in-house counsel. We evaluate the total indicated DCC expense reserve need by sorting and analyzing these expenses by accident date, similar to how we review the needed loss reserves. Concurrently, the DCC expenses are split into “Attorney and Legal” and “Medical and Other” components and analyzed separately. Adjusting & Other includes all other claims adjusting expenses, whether internal or external to the Company. A&O consists of fees, salaries and overhead expenses of those involved in a claim adjusting function, as well as other related expenses incurred in determination of coverage. We evaluate our total indicated A&O reserve need by comparing the ratios of adjusting and other expense payments with loss payments over the past several calendar quarters. Data is analyzed by calendar quarter as we feel the activity and cost in adjusting claims will be consistent with past calendar period activities regardless of the accident date of the loss. The selected ratios are applied to the loss reserves and then modified to derive indicated A&O expense reserves. At year-end 2007, the Loss Adjustment Expense (LAE) reserves were 19% of our total carried loss and LAE reserves. Similar to loss reserves, we carry case reserves for Defense and Cost Containment (DCC) and Adjusting and Other (A&O) expenses by applying selected averages to each open feature. Also, for DCC we carry the adjuster-set reserve if it exceeds a certain threshold. (This occurs with much less frequency than for loss.) Similar to loss IBNR reserves, carried IBNR reserves for DCC and A&O expenses are calculated as a percentage of the trailing earned premium for each respective segment. Analysis of needed DCC and A&O expense reserves are performed independently. For each state, we review personal auto DCC bodily injury reserves and all A&O reserves by line coverage twice per year. Section VIII of the Appendix contains a case study of our LAE reserve analysis. Page 15
Slide 20: Salvage and Subrogation Accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP) require that loss reserves be stated net of anticipated salvage and subrogation recoveries. Statutory accounting principles (SAP) allow reserves to be reduced by the expected recovery amounts, but do not require it. We report our SAP loss reserves net of anticipated salvage and subrogation recoveries. Salvage: Progressive generally assumes the title to a vehicle when it is declared a total loss. We then sell the vehicle to a salvage dealer, and these proceeds are referred to as salvage recovery. Salvage is most relevant in analyzing the needed reserves for collision claims. Subrogation: When a Progressive policyholder is involved in an accident in which the other party is at fault or partially at fault, he/she may submit the claim to us. When we pay that claim, we obtain our policyholder’s right to recover damages from the at-fault party (usually the at-fault party’s insurance company). Subrogation is most relevant for collision (damage to vehicles) and personal injury protection claims in many no-fault states. As we collect salvage or subrogation from third parties, it reduces our net paid and incurred loss amount for that claim. We analyze our claims data net of these recoveries; therefore our estimated ultimate loss amounts are net of anticipated salvage and subrogation. Since most of our recoveries are realized after claims have been closed, we carry negative IBNR reserves on the Company’s books for anticipated salvage and subrogation. Involuntary Market Operating Loss Reserves Progressive is required by the laws of most states to participate in involuntary market plans. Below we discuss the two major types of involuntary market plans in which we participate. Private Passenger Assigned Risk Plans: State insurance regulations require us to participate in various assigned risk plans. Applicants who cannot obtain insurance in the voluntary market are assigned proportionately by the volume of written exposures or vehicles among the insurers licensed in that state. Generally, an operating loss is expected on these assignments. Participation requirements in assigned risk plans differ from state to state. The reserves that we carry for the assigned risk plans comprised less than one-tenth of one percent of our total net carried reserves at year-end 2007. However, since this is a unique type of exposure, we evaluate it separately. The process of determining the assigned risk reserve for a state is as follows: Determine Progressive’s estimated portion of the assigned risk pool by multiplying our projected market share by the estimated future size of the assigned risk pool in that state Reduce this by any credits a state may allow such as voluntarily writing policies that would have otherwise been considered assigned risk-type business Estimate the operating loss that we expect to incur from this business Page 16
Slide 21: Commercial Auto Insurance Procedure/Plan (CAIP): Progressive is also required in most states to share in the operating results of the involuntary commercial auto insurance procedures/plans, generally known as CAIP. Due to the more complex nature of commercial business, these procedures/plans do not assign policies to specific insurance companies. Instead, a small number of carriers service the business but generally do not bear underwriting risk. The servicing carriers transfer the insurance risk, or cede 100% of the business, to the state CAIP pools. These pools then retrocede the experience of the plan to all companies in proportion to their share of the commercial automobile voluntary market for each respective state. Page 17
Slide 22: Section IV – Estimating Loss Reserves For loss reserve review purposes, we divide our book of business into smaller groups of data known as segments. A segment is generally defined by a state/product/coverage grouping with reasonably similar loss characteristics. During a reserve review we generally estimate the ultimate loss amounts for the past seven accident years using six different projections. We may use additional techniques if there are wide variations between the six projections or if underlying process changes make those projections less reliable. To estimate the required reserve balance (i.e., unpaid losses) for the segment, we subtract the payments we have already made on claims that occurred during that same period. We change the reserve level for that segment based upon this review. In this section we discuss segmentation, and describe the projections we consider in the review. The Appendix contains case studies that show more details involved in the segment reviews, including the calculations and the issues involved. However, the application of judgment is a key component of our reserve analysis. This is especially true in a dynamic environment such as we have experienced at Progressive, in which changes in mix of business (e.g., by policy limit and geographic area) can be significant. Segmentation of Reserves for Analysis Segments are identified to allow us to review reserve needs at the most detailed level our data supports, and provide us with the ability to identify and measure variances and trends in severity and frequency. They also allow us to identify process changes within states/regions, which helps us to understand changes within the underlying data and to reflect them in the reviews. Each segment is required to have enough data to deliver reliable (credible) results. Our objective is to achieve adequacy in the reserve levels with minimal variation for each segment. This enhances the accuracy of our financial reporting, supports the income statements of our business units, and allows us to make better business decisions. The projection of frequency for the lines of business we write is usually stable, and actual frequency experienced will tend to vary depending on the change in the mix of classes of drivers we insure. The severity experienced by the Company is more difficult to estimate, and it is affected by changes in underlying costs, such as medical costs, jury verdicts, etc. In addition, severity will vary relative to the change in the Company’s mix of business by policy limit. Internal and external considerations are better understood at the state level than at a more macro countrywide level. Internal considerations that are process related may result from changes in the claims organization’s activities including claim closure rates, the number of claims that are closed without payment, and the level of estimated needed case reserves by claim. External considerations include the litigation environment, regulatory and legislative actions, state-by-state changes in medical costs, and the availability of services to resolve claims. Many states are large enough that we can look at the data by state, while other states are so large that we can segment the data into regions within the state. For states in which the underlying data is not large enough to be credible, we may combine states with similar loss characteristics and review them together. However, due to our volume, we now review each state separately for personal auto bodily injury loss reserves. Even though a few of these states may be considered too small to have fully credible data, we feel there is value in studying and interpreting each individual state’s trends and development. Exhibit 8 is a map showing how we currently segment our loss reserve reviews for personal auto bodily injury. We continually look at ways to further segment our reviews to add value to our process. Page 18
Slide 23: Exhibit 8 2007 Personal Auto BI Loss Reserve Segments With respect to personal auto bodily injury coverage, we analyze loss data related to policies with higher limits (greater than or equal to $100,000 per person) separately from loss data related to policies with lower limits (less than $100,000 per person). It is valuable to analyze these two groups of segments, as they tend to have different severity, frequency and loss development patterns. We also split the data by policy limit for our commercial auto bodily injury analyses, but that split is at the $500,000 policy limit. As the need to further analyze expenses at a finer breakout by limit presents itself, we have structured these more in-depth reviews. In addition, we separately analyze specialty business from light local business. Each identified segment is reviewed annually, semiannually or quarterly depending on the size, the volatility, and other unique aspects of the individual segment. Loss adjustment expense (LAE) reserves are analyzed at a level of segmentation using many of the same considerations as loss reserves. Since the volume of LAE reserves is much less than that of loss reserves, we combine some of the states for DCC reviews of coverages other than bodily injury. This produces more credible results. A&O is reviewed by state for all line coverage. As mentioned earlier, all LAE segments are evaluated at least once per year, generally twice. Projections of Ultimate Losses Our standard procedures are to review the results of six different projections in order to determine if a reserve change is required. Three of the six projections use paid data and the other three projections use incurred data (payments plus reserves). There are strengths and weaknesses to each of the projections. In the event of a wide variation between results generated by the different projections, we further analyze the data using additional techniques. The six standard projections we use to estimate ultimate losses are: 1. Amount Paid, in which we organize the total loss dollars paid by accident period and age of development into a triangular format and project them to estimated ultimate amounts. We base our selections of future loss development largely on the historical development of prior periods. Page 19
Slide 24: 2. Average Paid, in which we organize the paid severity (average amount paid per feature) by accident period and age of development into a triangular format and project the severities to estimated ultimate levels. Ultimate loss amounts are then calculated as the ultimate severities multiplied by the estimated ultimate number of features to be paid. 3. Bornhuetter-Ferguson Paid, which uses the paid loss development pattern to determine the percent unpaid. We apply the percent unpaid to the expected ultimate loss amount to arrive at the expected unpaid amount, which is added to actual losses paid-to-date. 4. Amount Incurred, in which we organize the total loss dollars incurred by accident period and age of development into a triangular format and project them to estimated ultimate amounts. We base our future loss development largely on the historical development of prior periods. 5. Average Incurred, in which we organize the incurred severity (average amount incurred per feature) by accident period and age of development into a triangular format and project the severities to estimated ultimate levels. Ultimate loss amounts are then calculated as the ultimate severities multiplied by the estimated ultimate number of features to be paid. 6. Bornhuetter-Ferguson Incurred, which uses the incurred loss development pattern to determine the percent not yet recorded. We apply the percent unrecorded to the expected ultimate losses to arrive at the expected unrecorded amount, which is added to actual losses incurred-to-date. The three paid projections -- amount paid, average paid and Bornhuetter-Ferguson paid -- all use paid loss data. The paid projections estimate growth and development of claims in an accident period by looking at the paid development of earlier accident periods. This assumes that past paid loss development is a predictor of future paid loss development. The primary strength of using paid data is that it removes the potential for distortions that may be created by including estimated data. The drawback is that it is more difficult to accurately project ultimate losses in the most recent periods under review. For example, with longer-tailed lines of insurance such as bodily injury, the early development periods are more volatile because a large proportion of the payments are made later, as was illustrated in Exhibit 1 of Section II. Accurate paid projections also depend heavily on consistent claims closure or settlement practices. If the closure rate changes, the paid projections could be misleading. In addition, shifts in mix of business (e.g., changes by policy limit) are not as readily identified in paid development as in incurred development. The three incurred projections -- amount incurred, average incurred and Bornhuetter-Ferguson incurred -- use paid losses plus case loss reserves in each accident period. They assume that historical incurred loss development will be predictive of our future incurred loss development. The primary strength of using incurred data is that we can make use of reserve estimates for open claims. These estimates are based on the judgment of claims adjusters in addition to our prior actuarial reviews. This is especially critical when estimating ultimate losses for longer-tailed claims such as bodily injury. The drawback of using incurred data for projection is that it depends heavily on consistent adjuster reserve estimates. The incurred projections could be distorted if the average adjuster reserve adequacy fluctuates over time. We identify changes in closure rates and average adjuster reserve levels through our segmentation and also through discussions with management. We adjust for these changes in our projections of losses. The case study in Section VII of the Appendix includes more thorough explanations of how changes in the closure rate affect paid loss development, and how changes in average adjuster reserves affect incurred loss development. Page 20
Slide 25: Section V – Process Enhancements Introduced in 2007 We develop and maintain our loss and loss adjustment expense reserve analysis models internally, giving us the flexibility to incorporate enhancements into our analysis and communication process regularly. We make many minor enhancements to our process throughout the year. Our segmentation process is described in Section IV. We continually look at ways to enhance our segmentation so the reserves carried more accurately reflect the experience of each loss reserving segment. For instance, as of 2007, we now review A&O individually for all states and line coverages. In 2007, our enhancements centered on the segmentation and number of reviews performed. Currently, we are looking at enhancing our reviews with more bodily injury breakouts along with adding to the IBNR analysis to project frequency and severity separately regarding our late emergence. In 2007, we reviewed 600 loss reserving segments of business over 1200 reviews. Page 21
Slide 26: Section VI – Terms and Definitions Accident period losses: Losses for each accident are assigned to the period in which the accident occurred. Accident periods used in our analysis are generally three months (accident quarter), six months (accident semester), or twelve months (accident year). Payments and reserve changes, regardless of when they are made, are assigned to that same period in which the accident occurred. Therefore, accident period results will change over time as the losses develop. Additional Needed Case Reserves (ANCR): See Case reserves. Adjuster-set reserves: See Case reserves. Adjusting & Other (A&O) expense: A component of loss adjustment expense. A&O expenses include all claims adjusting expenses (whether internal or external to the Company) that are not included in Defense and Cost Containment (DCC). This category includes fees and salaries of those involved in a claim adjusting function, and other related expenses incurred in determination of coverage. Assigned Risk: People unable to obtain auto insurance in the voluntary market apply for coverage in the state automobile plan. In most cases, the insurance coverage is not actually provided by the state but instead is “assigned” to an insurance company. Each insurance company must accept a proportionate share of these risks. Average reserves: See Case reserves. Bodily Injury (BI) liability coverage: Legal responsibility arising from injury or death to another person. In most states, this is a mandatory coverage. Each state mandates the minimum required limit. BI coverage pays when our insured is liable for an accident in which another party is injured. Bornhuetter-Ferguson method: The “BF” method is an actuarial methodology that smoothes the projected ultimate losses between a pure incurred or paid development method and an expected loss ratio (or expected pure premium) method. Calendar period losses: Payments and reserve changes which are recorded in the Company’s financial system during the period in question, without regard to the period in which the accident occurred or was recorded. Calendar period results do not change after the end of the period, even as new claim information develops. Case reserves: Estimates of amounts required to settle claims that have already been reported but have not yet been fully paid. Case reserves represent the largest portion of the reserves for automobile insurance products. • Additional Needed Case Reserves (ANCR): An actuarially determined reserve intended to cover expected future emergence and development of claims above the threshold. Adjuster-set reserves: The claims adjuster’s best estimate of how much a specific claim will cost. Only claims estimates above a specified threshold are included in financial reserves. All adjuster estimates are included in the actuarial reserve analyses. Average reserves: When the adjuster estimate for a feature is below a predetermined threshold, the financial case reserve is the average reserve. These Page 22 • •
Slide 27: are determined by the loss reserving area and vary by segment. Within each segment, they may also vary by age (months since the accident occurred), policy limit, and geographic area. • Financial reserves: The case reserves carried on the Company’s financial records. Below a predetermined dollar threshold, the average reserve developed by the loss reserving area is used. The adjuster-set reserve multiplied by an ANCR factor is used if it exceeds the threshold. Catastrophe: A term applied to an incident, storm or series of related incidents resulting in a significant number of claims with a combined cost totaling more than $25 million in property damage for the insurance industry. Cede: To transfer liability, or a portion of it, in connection with a risk from the original or primary insurer to a reinsurance entity (e.g. a reinsurance company or JUA). Claim: A demand for payment by an insured or an alleged third party under the terms and conditions of an insurance contract. Claimant: Usually refers to one who makes a claim. Closed Without Payment (CWP): A claim that was reported, did not require a loss payment, and is now closed. Note that there can be loss adjustment expenses for a CWP claim. Closure rate: The number of claims from a specific accident period which are closed with payment at a specific evaluation date, divided by the estimated ultimate number of claims to be paid for that accident period. Collision coverage: A coverage of the automobile insurance policy that indemnifies the insured when his/her automobile is damaged due to physical contact with another object (except a bird or animal), or due to upset (e.g., overturning). Combined ratio: The sum of the loss and loss adjustment expense ratio and the expense ratio. This represents the percentage of each premium dollar an insurer spends on claims and expenses. A combined ratio less than 100% indicates an underwriting profit, while a combined ratio in excess of 100% indicates an underwriting loss. Comprehensive coverage: A coverage of the automobile insurance policy that pays for damages to the insured’s vehicle due to any cause (except collision), including damage due to windstorm, hail, theft, falling objects, explosion, riot, glass breakage and other causes of loss. Credibility: A statistical measure of the ability to infer generalizations from a data sample. Credibility increases as sample size increases or variability within the sample decreases. Decomposition (Decomp) reports: Monthly internal management reports that decompose the financial case reserve changes into categories that explain the reasons for the changes. Defense and Cost Containment (DCC) expense: A component of loss adjustment expense. DCC includes expenses related to defense, litigation and medical cost containment whether internal or external to the Company. DCC expenses include but are not limited to accident investigation, surveillance, litigation management, and fees of attorneys and others if working in defense of a claim. Development: Change in the estimated or actual losses or reserves over subsequent evaluations. When compared to expectations or prior estimates, it is referred to as either Page 23
Slide 28: favorable or unfavorable development, based on whether the estimate has decreased or increased. Development factor: The quotient of the paid or incurred value for an accident or record period evaluated at time “t” divided by the value for that same accident or record period evaluated at time “t-1.” Diagonal: The cumulative or incremental values or factors for all accident or record periods being evaluated as of a common date. If we are evaluating accident semester paid losses at 6month intervals, then the last diagonal of the paid loss triangle is made up of the cumulative paid loss amounts for each accident semester as of the most recent evaluation date. The development of that last diagonal would be the paid losses during the last six calendar months for each accident semester. (Also see Triangle). Earned car year: An exposure unit that is the basic rating unit underlying an auto insurance premium. One automobile insured for a period of twelve months is one earned car year. Earned premium: That part of the premium proportional to the segment of time a policy has been in force. It is the premium for protection actually provided during the experience period. Emergence: Generally used in the context of IBNR reserves, it refers to the recording of claims (or dollar amount of the claims) after the date of the accident, usually into at least the next quarterly or annual period. For example, if an accident occurred in October 2002 and it was recorded in February 2003, it was part of the estimate of IBNR at year-end 2002, and it emerged in the first quarter of 2003. Expense ratio: The sum of all underwriting and operational expenses divided by premium. These expenses include such items as commission, acquisition expenses, general expenses, and taxes, but not loss adjustment expenses. Exposure: A measure of the risk of loss and the basic rating unit underlying an insurance premium. The unit of exposure will vary based upon the characteristics of the insurance coverage involved. For automobile insurance, one automobile insured for a period of twelve months is one earned car year or one exposure. Feature: The smallest divisible part of a claim. This is a loss on one coverage for one person. Often a claim will involve multiple features. It can involve multiple coverages, such as bodily injury (BI), property damage (PD), and Collision; and/or it can involve multiple claimants for the same coverage (e.g., two injured parties). Financial reserves: See Case reserves. Frequency: Number of features divided by exposure count. If one exposure is defined as one earned car year, then frequency is a measure of the proportion of insureds that have a claim in a year. Incurred But Not Recorded (IBNR) reserves: These are estimates at a given evaluation date of amounts that will be needed to settle claims that have already occurred but have not yet been recorded by the Company. Incurred losses: The sum of payments and reserve changes for claims. Indication: An actuarial estimate, based upon analysis of the data. Page 24
Slide 29: Lag: Generally used in the context of IBNR reserves, it refers to the period of time from the date of the accident or occurrence to the date the claim is recorded on the Company’s books. The data is grouped into quarterly lag periods for analysis of IBNR reserves. Light Local commercial auto vehicles: Commercial vehicles that generally have a gross vehicle weight under 26,000 pounds. These vehicles are used in the insured’s business but are not the primary source of revenue for their business. Loss Adjustment Expenses (LAE): Expenses related to claim settlement. Total Loss Adjustment Expenses (LAE) = [Defense and Cost Containment (DCC) expenses] + [Adjusting & Other (A&O) expenses] Loss Adjustment Expenses (LAE) ratio: LAE expenses divided by earned premium. Loss ratio (Incurred loss ratio): Incurred losses divided by earned premium. Loss Reserving Segment: See Segement. Net loss reserves: Net indicates that we have deducted the expected reinsurance recoverable from the sum of case and IBNR reserves. It may also refer to reserves that have been reduced for expected salvage and subrogation recoveries. Paid losses: Payments for claims. Parameters: Variables that determine the characteristics or behavior of a statistical model and can be estimated by calculations from sample data. For example, the parameters of frequency and severity are estimated in the loss reserve analysis model. Personal Injury Protection (PIP) coverage: Coverage in which an insurer pays, within specified limits, the medical and funeral expenses, work loss benefits and essential services of the insured, others in his vehicles and pedestrians struck by him. The basic coverage implemented under no-fault automobile statutes, which vary by state. Physical damage: collision coverages. Damage to the insured vehicle, which includes the comprehensive and Property Damage (PD) coverage: A coverage protecting the legal liability of the policyholder for damage to, or destruction of, property of others in an auto accident. The coverage pays for damage to the other vehicles, and structures such as buildings, telephone poles and fences. Pure premium: Loss dollars divided by exposure count. Pure premium is also equal to frequency times severity. The pure premium is equivalent to the loss component of the full policy premium. Record period losses: Losses are assigned to the period in which the accident is recorded on the Company’s financial records. Record periods used in our analysis are generally three months (record quarter), six months (record semester), or twelve months (record year). Payments and reserve changes, regardless of when they are made, are assigned to that same period in which the accident was recorded. As a result, record period results will change over time as the losses develop, i.e., as the estimates of losses change due to payments and reserve changes for all accidents that were recorded during that period. Reopened claim: A claim that was closed (with or without payment) but reopened again at a later date due to the discovery of additional information. We reserve for future reopened claims as IBNR. Page 25
Slide 30: Reserves: Estimates of the unpaid portion of what the Company ultimately expects to pay out for losses and loss adjustment expenses on claims that occurred by the accounting date, whether or not those claims have been reported to the Company. Salvage: The residual value of property in which an insurance company secures an ownership interest as a result of paying a claim for total loss or damage based on the true value of the property in its undamaged state or before the loss occurred. Anticipated salvage on closed claims is included as negative IBNR reserves. Segment (Loss Reserving Segment): Generally, a state/product/coverage combination with reasonably similar loss characteristics that is grouped together when assessing reserve adequacy. Severity: Loss dollars divided by number of features. This indicates the dollar amount of the average feature. Specialty commercial auto vehicles: Commercial vehicles that generally have a gross vehicle weight of at least 26,000 pounds. These include tow trucks and local cartage (e.g. delivery vans, box trucks, dump trucks and flatbeds). These vehicles are used in the insured’s business and are the primary source of revenue for their business. Subrogation: An insurance company, upon payment of a loss to the insured, is entitled to the insured’s legal and equitable rights against third parties. These rights are only those related to the loss, and the company is only entitled to the extent of the loss payment. Reserves for the future recoveries we expect to recover through subrogation are included as negative IBNR reserves. Threshold: The point above which the adjuster’s estimate of a claim is carried in our financial case reserves, versus an average reserve being assigned by the system. Trend (exponential fit): Exponential fitted trends tell us the estimated average annual change in severity, frequency, pure premium, or average earned premium by fitting an exponential curve to the selected values. These can use any number of data points. We generally use two-year or four-year fitted trends. Triangle: The triangle is a tool used by actuaries to show how estimates of incurred and paid-todate amounts have changed or developed over time. Usually, the evaluation periods are columns organized from left to right, and the data periods are rows organized from top to bottom. The oldest data periods have been evaluated the most times, while the more recent data periods have been evaluated the least amount of times. Thus, the historical data forms a triangular shape. Ultimate: The final selected amount, count, or ratio that we estimate by analyzing the data. For example, the selected ultimate loss amount for an accident period represents our estimate of the total cost of all claims for that accident period after they have all been paid and closed. Utilization (DCC utilization): Percentage of features for which we incur expenses for defense and cost containment. Written premium: The total amount charged to an insured for a policy during its entire effective period. Page 26
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