Slide 1: The Three Tsunamis
Rich Antcliff
Chief Technologi st NASA Langley Research Center
May 7, 2007 AD
The future ain’t what it used to be… Yogi Berra
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff
May 7, 2007, Slide 1
Slide 2: Waves crashing in the distance . . .
Technological Exponentials Global Demographics
Climate Change
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff
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Slide 3: Technological Exponentials
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Slide 4: Technological Exponentials
Kurtzweil, 2005
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Slide 5: Technological Exponentials
Kurtzweil, 2005
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Slide 6: Technological Exponentials
Kurtzweil, 2005
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Slide 7: Technological Exponentials
Kurtzweil, 2005
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Slide 8: Technological Exponentials
Kurtzweil, 2005
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Slide 9: Technological Exponentials Nanobearings :
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Slide 10: Technological Exponentials The Cerebellum
Gathering data from multiple studies, Javier F. Medina, Michael D. Mauk, and their colleagues at the University of Texas Medical School devised a detailed bottomup simulation of the cerebellum. Their simulation includes over 10,000 simulated neurons and 300,000 synapses, and includes all of the principal types of cerebellum cells.
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Slide 11: Technological Exponentials
Lily pads can grow fast. Imagine that you discover a variety of lily pads that can double in number every day. It takes 10 days for them grow to cover a pond halfway. How many days will it take to completely cover the pond?
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff
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Slide 12: Waves crashing in the nearby. . .
Technological Exponentials Global Demographics
Climate Change
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Slide 13: Global Demog rap hics
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Slide 14: Global Demog rap hics
shares aggregate GDP
4.0% 6.6%
Rest of World 45.4%
11.1%
28.5%
Source: World Bank 2005
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Slide 15: Global Demog rap hics
GDP ’03US$bn 50000 China US 25000 India
Japan 0 Germany 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source: Goldman Sachs, Report 99
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Slide 16: Global Demog rap hics
US Census Bureau International Database
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Slide 17: Global Demog rap hics
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Slide 18: Global Demog rap hics
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Slide 19: Global Demog rap hics • Engineering Graduates: • United States - 70,000 • All of Europe - 100,000 • India - 450,000 • China - 700,000
http://inhome.rediff.com/money/2006/jun/09bspec.htm
2005 data
“..but the quality of the engineers is poor” - SO WHAT!
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Slide 20: Global Demog rap hics
Global Views 2006 - The Chicago Council on Global Affairs
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Slide 21: Global Demog rap hics
T hose who ignore d emographics will do so at their own peril author unknown
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Slide 22: Waves crashing at home . .
Technological Exponentials Global Demographics
Climate Change
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Slide 23: Climate Change
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Slide 24: Climate Change
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Slide 25: Climate Change
CO2
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Slide 26: Climate Change
Boulder Glacier, Washington State
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Slide 27: Climate Change
Berrien Moore
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Slide 28: Climate Change
Berrien Moore
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Slide 29: Climate Change
Global Views 2006 - The Chicago Council on Global Affairs
The Three Tsunamis - Rich Antcliff
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Slide 30: The Three Tsunamis
Technological Exponentials
• What does it mean to be human? • What will be “robotic”? • Who will do research?
Global Demographics
• Where is the research done? • Who owns the IP? • What is the organization?
Climate Change
• What will be the focus of our research? • What energy will we use? • How will we live?
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Slide 31: or
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Slide 32: Why?
What will the R&D “Lab” look like in 2025? Technological exponentials
What will R&D look like in 2025? Global Demographics Should we think about this now? Climate Change Would we make different decision now, if we knew?
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Slide 33: What?
Understand the future context
Investigation and integration of the future studies relevant to R&D What is the current progress? What is the delta? Workshop, survey, interview? Publication Member centered learning
Assessing the impact on R&D ‘Labs”
Educate
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Slide 34: Who?
Co-chairs:
Rich Antcliff (NASA), Erik Whalen-Pedersen (Kraft) Mike Schwenk (PNNL), Johann Venter (Champion Tech), Raju Borwankar (Kraft), Robert Williams (Boeing), Feng Niu (Motorola), Silvia Urbe-Saucedo (Kellogg), Charlene Miraglia (Praxair), Michelle Kane (Praxair), Martha Collins (Air Products), Players to be named later (You!)
Others
Center for Innovative Management Studies
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