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Slide 1: Marketing Management, Millenium Edition Philip Kotler Custom Edition for University of Phoenix
Slide 2: Excerpts taken from: A Framework for Marketing Management, by Philip Kotler Copyright © 2001by Prentice-Hall, Inc. A Pearson Education Company Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458 Marketing Management Millenium Edition, Tenth Edition, by Philip Kotler Copyright © 2000 by Prentice-Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, in any form or by any means, without permission in writing from the publisher. Compilation Copyright © 2002 by Pearson Custom Publishing. This copyright covers material written expressly for this volume by the editor/s as well as the compilation itself. It does not cover the individual selections herein that first appeared elsewhere. Permission to reprint these has been obtained by Pearson Custom Publishing for this edition only. Further reproduction by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage or retrieval system, must be arranged with the individual copyright holders noted. This special edition published in cooperation with Pearson Custom Publishing Printed in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Please visit our web site at www.pearsoncustom.com ISBN 0–536–63099-2 BA 993095 PEARSON CUSTOM PUBLISHING 75 Arlington Street, Suite 300, Boston, MA 02116 A Pearson Education Company
Slide 3: SECTION ONE
Slide 4: Understanding Marketing Management Marketing in the Twenty-First Century We will address the following questions: ■ What are the tasks of marketing? ■ What are the major concepts and tools of marketing? ■ What orientations do companies exhibit in the marketplace? ■ How are companies and marketers responding to the new challenges? C hange is occurring at an accelerating rate; today is not like yesterday, and tomorrow will be different from today. Continuing today’s strategy is risky; so is turning to a new strategy. Therefore, tomorrow’s successful companies will have to heed three certainties: ➤ ➤ ➤ Global forces will continue to affect everyone’s business and personal life. Technology will continue to advance and amaze us. There will be a continuing push toward deregulation of the economic sector. These three developments—globalization, technological advances, and deregulation—spell endless opportunities. But what is marketing and what does it have to do with these issues? Marketing deals with identifying and meeting human and social needs. One of the shortest definitions of marketing is “meeting needs profitably.” Whether the marketer is Procter & Gamble, which notices that people feel overweight and want tasty but less fatty food and invents Olestra; or CarMax, which notes that people want more certainty when they buy a used automobile and invents a new system for selling used cars; or IKEA, which notices that people want good furniture at a substantially lower price and creates knock-down furniture—all illustrate a drive to turn a private or social need into a profitable business opportunity through marketing. MARKETING TASKS A recent book, Radical Marketing, praises companies such as Harley-Davidson for succeeding by breaking all of the rules of marketing.1 Instead of commissioning expensive marketing research, spending huge sums on advertising, and operating large market- 1
Slide 5: 2 CHAPTER 1 MARKETING IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY ing departments, these companies stretch their limited resources, live close to their customers, and create more satisfying solutions to customers’ needs. They form buyers clubs, use creative public relations, and focus on delivering quality products to win long-term customer loyalty. It seems that not all marketing must follow the P&G model. In fact, we can distinguish three stages through which marketing practice might pass: 1. Entrepreneurial marketing: Most companies are started by individuals who visualize an opportunity and knock on every door to gain attention. Jim Koch, founder of Boston Beer Company, whose Samuel Adams beer has become a top-selling “craft” beer, started out in 1984 carrying bottles of Samuel Adams from bar to bar to persuade bartenders to carry it. For 10 years, he sold his beer through direct selling and grassroots public relations. Today his business pulls in nearly $200 million, making it the leader in the U.S. craft beer market.2 Formulated marketing: As small companies achieve success, they inevitably move toward more formulated marketing. Boston Beer recently began a $15 million television advertising campaign. The company now employs more that 175 salespeople and has a marketing department that carries on market research, adopting some of the tools used in professionally run marketing companies. Intrepreneurial marketing: Many large companies get stuck in formulated marketing, poring over the latest ratings, scanning research reports, trying to fine-tune dealer relations and advertising messages. These companies lack the creativity and passion of the guerrilla marketers in the entrepreneurial stage.3 Their brand and product managers need to start living with their customers and visualizing new ways to add value to their customers’ lives. 2. 3. The bottom line is that effective marketing can take many forms. Although it is easier to learn the formulated side (which will occupy most of our attention in this book), we will also see how creativity and passion can be used by today’s and tomorrow’s marketing managers. The Scope of Marketing Marketing people are involved in marketing 10 types of entities: goods, services, experiences, events, persons, places, properties, organizations, information, and ideas. Goods. Physical goods constitute the bulk of most countries’ production and marketing effort. The United States produces and markets billions of physical goods, from eggs to steel to hair dryers. In developing nations, goods— particularly food, commodities, clothing, and housing—are the mainstay of the economy. Services. As economies advance, a growing proportion of their activities are focused on the production of services. The U.S. economy today consists of a 70–30 services-to-goods mix. Services include airlines, hotels, and maintenance and repair people, as well as professionals such as accountants, lawyers, engineers, and doctors. Many market offerings consist of a variable mix of goods and services. Experiences. By orchestrating several services and goods, one can create, stage, and market experiences. Walt Disney World’s Magic Kingdom is an experience; so is the Hard Rock Cafe. Events. Marketers promote time-based events, such as the Olympics, trade shows, sports events, and artistic performances.
Slide 6: Marketing Tasks 3 Persons. Celebrity marketing has become a major business. Artists, musicians, CEOs, physicians, high-profile lawyers and financiers, and other professionals draw help from celebrity marketers.4 Places. Cities, states, regions, and nations compete to attract tourists, factories, company headquarters, and new residents.5 Place marketers include economic development specialists, real estate agents, commercial banks, local business associations, and advertising and public relations agencies. Properties. Properties are intangible rights of ownership of either real property (real estate) or financial property (stocks and bonds). Properties are bought and sold, and this occasions a marketing effort by real estate agents (for real estate) and investment companies and banks (for securities). Organizations. Organizations actively work to build a strong, favorable image in the mind of their publics. Philips, the Dutch electronics company, advertises with the tag line, “Let’s Make Things Better.” The Body Shop and Ben & Jerry’s also gain attention by promoting social causes. Universities, museums, and performing arts organizations boost their public images to compete more successfully for audiences and funds. Information. The production, packaging, and distribution of information is one of society’s major industries.6 Among the marketers of information are schools and universities; publishers of encyclopedias, nonfiction books, and specialized magazines; makers of CDs; and Internet Web sites. Ideas. Every market offering has a basic idea at its core. In essence, products and services are platforms for delivering some idea or benefit to satisfy a core need. A Broadened View of Marketing Tasks Marketers are skilled in stimulating demand for their products. However, this is too limited a view of the tasks that marketers perform. Just as production and logistics professionals are responsible for supply management, marketers are responsible for demand management. They may have to manage negative demand (avoidance of a product), no demand (lack of awareness or interest in a product), latent demand (a strong need that cannot be satisfied by existing products), declining demand (lower demand), irregular demand (demand varying by season, day, or hour), full demand (a satisfying level of demand), overfull demand (more demand than can be handled), or unwholesome demand (demand for unhealthy or dangerous products). To meet the organization’s objectives, marketing managers seek to influence the level, timing, and composition of these various demand states. The Decisions That Marketers Make Marketing managers face a host of decisions in handling marketing tasks. These range from major decisions such as what product features to design into a new product, how many salespeople to hire, or how much to spend on advertising, to minor decisions such as the wording or color for new packaging. Among the questions that marketers ask (and will be addressed in this text) are: How can we spot and choose the right market segment(s)? How can we differentiate our offering? How should we respond to customers who press for a lower price? How can we compete against lower-cost, lower-price rivals? How far can we go in customizing our offering for each customer? How can we grow our business? How can we build stronger brands? How can we reduce the cost of customer acquisition and keep customers loyal? How can we tell which customers are more important? How can we measure the payback
Slide 7: 4 CHAPTER 1 MARKETING IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY from marketing communications? How can we improve sales-force productivity? How can we manage channel conflict? How can we get other departments to be more customer-oriented? Marketing Concepts and Tools Marketing boasts a rich array of concepts and tools to help marketers address the decisions they must make. We will start by defining marketing and then describing its major concepts and tools. Defining Marketing We can distinguish between a social and a managerial definition for marketing. According to a social definition, marketing is a societal process by which individuals and groups obtain what they need and want through creating, offering, and exchanging products and services of value freely with others. As a managerial definition, marketing has often been described as “the art of selling products.” But Peter Drucker, a leading management theorist, says that “the aim of marketing is to make selling superfluous. The aim of marketing is to know and understand the customer so well that the product or service fits him and sells itself. Ideally, marketing should result in a customer who is ready to buy.”7 The American Marketing Association offers this managerial definition: Marketing (management) is the process of planning and executing the conception, pricing, promotion, and distribution of ideas, goods, and services to create exchanges that satisfy individual and organizational goals.8 Coping with exchange processes—part of this definition—calls for a considerable amount of work and skill. We see marketing management as the art and science of applying core marketing concepts to choose target markets and get, keep, and grow customers through creating, delivering, and communicating superior customer value. Core Marketing Concepts Marketing can be further understood by defining the core concepts applied by marketing managers. Target Markets and Segmentation A marketer can rarely satisfy everyone in a market. Not everyone likes the same soft drink, automobile, college, and movie. Therefore, marketers start with market segmentation. They identify and profile distinct groups of buyers who might prefer or require varying products and marketing mixes. Market segments can be identified by examining demographic, psychographic, and behavioral differences among buyers. The firm then decides which segments present the greatest opportunity—those whose needs the firm can meet in a superior fashion. For each chosen target market, the firm develops a market offering. The offering is positioned in the minds of the target buyers as delivering some central benefit(s). For example, Volvo develops its cars for the target market of buyers for whom automobile safety is a major concern. Volvo, therefore, positions its car as the safest a customer can buy. Traditionally, a “market” was a physical place where buyers and sellers gathered to exchange goods. Now marketers view the sellers as the industry and the buyers as the market (see Figure 1-1). The sellers send goods and services and communications (ads, direct mail, e-mail messages) to the market; in return they receive money and information (attitudes, sales data). The inner loop in the diagram in Figure 1-1 shows
Slide 8: Marketing Tasks 5 Communication Industry (a collection of sellers) Goods/services Money Information Market (a collection of buyers) Figure 1-1 A Simple Marketing System an exchange of money for goods and services; the outer loop shows an exchange of information. A global industry is one in which the strategic positions of competitors in major geographic or national markets are fundamentally affected by their overall global positions. Global firms—both large and small—plan, operate, and coordinate their activities and exchanges on a worldwide basis. Today we can distinguish between a marketplace and a marketspace. The marketplace is physical, as when one goes shopping in a store; marketspace is digital, as when one goes shopping on the Internet. E-commerce—business transactions conducted on-line—has many advantages for both consumers and businesses, including convenience, savings, selection, personalization, and information. For example, on-line shopping is so convenient that 30 percent of the orders generated by the Web site of REI, a recreational equipment retailer, is logged from 10 P.M. to 7 A.M., sparing REI the expense of keeping its stores open late or hiring customer service representatives. However, the e-commerce marketspace is also bringing pressure from consumers for lower prices and is threatening intermediaries such as travel agents, stockbrokers, insurance agents, and traditional retailers. To succeed in the on-line marketspace, marketers will need to reorganize and redefine themselves. The metamarket, a concept proposed by Mohan Sawhney, describes a cluster of complementary products and services that are closely related in the minds of consumers but are spread across a diverse set of industries. The automobile metamarket consists of automobile manufacturers, new and used car dealers, financing companies, insurance companies, mechanics, spare parts dealers, service shops, auto magazines, classified auto ads in newspapers, and auto sites on the Internet. Car buyers can get involved in many parts of this metamarket. This has created an opportunity for metamediaries to assist buyers to move seamlessly through these groups. One example is Edmund’s (www.edmunds.com), a Web site where buyers can find prices for different cars and click to other sites to search for dealers, financing, and accessories. Metamediaries can serve various metamarkets, such as the home ownership market, the parenting and baby care market, and the wedding market.9 Marketers and Prospects Another core concept is the distinction between marketers and prospects. A marketer is someone who is seeking a response (attention, a purchase, a vote, a donation) from another party, called the prospect. If two parties are seeking to sell something to each other, both are marketers.
Slide 9: 6 CHAPTER 1 MARKETING IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY Needs, Wants, and Demands The successful marketer will try to understand the target market’s needs, wants, and demands. Needs describe basic human requirements such as food, air, water, clothing, and shelter. People also have strong needs for recreation, education, and entertainment. These needs become wants when they are directed to specific objects that might satisfy the need. An American needs food but wants a hamburger, French fries, and a soft drink. A person in Mauritius needs food but wants a mango, rice, lentils, and beans. Clearly, wants are shaped by one’s society. Demands are wants for specific products backed by an ability to pay. Many people want a Mercedes; only a few are able and willing to buy one. Companies must measure not only how many people want their product, but also how many would actually be willing and able to buy it. However, marketers do not create needs: Needs preexist marketers. Marketers, along with other societal influences, influence wants. Marketers might promote the idea that a Mercedes would satisfy a person’s need for social status. They do not, however, create the need for social status. Product or Offering People satisfy their needs and wants with products. A product is any offering that can satisfy a need or want, such as one of the 10 basic offerings of goods, services, experiences, events, persons, places, properties, organizations, information, and ideas. A brand is an offering from a known source. A brand name such as McDonald’s carries many associations in the minds of people: hamburgers, fun, children, fast food, golden arches. These associations make up the brand image. All companies strive to build a strong, favorable brand image. Value and Satisfaction In terms of marketing, the product or offering will be successful if it delivers value and satisfaction to the target buyer. The buyer chooses between different offerings on the basis of which is perceived to deliver the most value. We define value as a ratio between what the customer gets and what he gives. The customer gets benefits and assumes costs, as shown in this equation: Value Benefits Costs Functional benefits emotional benefits Monetary costs time costs energy costs psychic costs Based on this equation, the marketer can increase the value of the customer offering by (1) raising benefits, (2) reducing costs, (3) raising benefits and reducing costs, (4) raising benefits by more than the raise in costs, or (5) lowering benefits by less than the reduction in costs. A customer choosing between two value offerings, V1 and V2, will examine the ratio V1/V2. She will favor V1 if the ratio is larger than one; she will favor V2 if the ratio is smaller than one; and she will be indifferent if the ratio equals one. Exchange and Transactions Exchange, the core of marketing, involves obtaining a desired product from someone by offering something in return. For exchange potential to exist, five conditions must be satisfied: 1. 2. 3. There are at least two parties. Each party has something that might be of value to the other party. Each party is capable of communication and delivery.
Slide 10: Marketing Tasks 4. 5. Each party is free to accept or reject the exchange offer. Each party believes it is appropriate or desirable to deal with the other party. 7 Whether exchange actually takes place depends upon whether the two parties can agree on terms that will leave them both better off (or at least not worse off) than before. Exchange is a value-creating process because it normally leaves both parties better off. Note that exchange is a process rather than an event. Two parties are engaged in exchange if they are negotiating—trying to arrive at mutually agreeable terms. When an agreement is reached, we say that a transaction takes place. A transaction involves at least two things of value, agreed-upon conditions, a time of agreement, and a place of agreement. Usually a legal system exists to support and enforce compliance among transactors. However, transactions do not require money as one of the traded values. A barter transaction, for example, involves trading goods or services for other goods or services. Note also that a transaction differs from a transfer. In a transfer, A gives a gift, a subsidy, or a charitable contribution to B but receives nothing tangible in return. Transfer behavior can also be understood through the concept of exchange. Typically, the transferer expects something in exchange for his or her gift—for example, gratitude or seeing changed behavior in the recipient. Professional fund-raisers provide benefits to donors, such as thank-you notes. Contemporary marketers have broadened the concept of marketing to include the study of transfer behavior as well as transaction behavior. Marketing consists of actions undertaken to elicit desired responses from a target audience. To effect successful exchanges, marketers analyze what each party expects from the transaction. Suppose Caterpillar, the world’s largest manufacturer of earth-moving equipment, researches the benefits that a typical construction company wants when it buys such equipment. The items shown on the prospect’s want list in Figure 1-2 are not equally important and may vary from buyer to buyer. One of Caterpillar’s marketing tasks is to discover the relative importance of these different wants to the buyer. As the marketer, Caterpillar also has a want list. If there is a sufficient match or overlap in the want lists, a basis for a transaction exists. Caterpillar’s task is to formulate an offer that motivates the construction company to buy Caterpillar equipment. The construction company might, in turn, make a counteroffer. This process of negotiation leads to mutually acceptable terms or a decision not to transact. Relationships and Networks Transaction marketing is part of a larger idea called relationship marketing. Relationship marketing aims to build long-term mutually satisfying relations with key parties—customers, suppliers, distributors—in order to earn and retain their long-term preference and business.10 Effective marketers accomplish this by promising and delivering high-quality products and services at fair prices to the other parties over time. Relationship marketing builds strong economic, technical, and social ties among the parties. It cuts down on transaction costs and time. In the most successful cases, transactions move from being negotiated each time to being a matter of routine. The ultimate outcome of relationship marketing is the building of a unique company asset called a marketing network. A marketing network consists of the company and its supporting stakeholders (customers, employees, suppliers, distributors, university scientists, and others) with whom it has built mutually profitable business relationships. Increasingly, competition is not between companies but rather between marketing networks, with the profits going to the company that has the better network.11
Slide 11: 8 CHAPTER 1 MARKETING IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY Construction Co. Want List 1. High-quality, durable equipment 2. Fair price 3. On-time delivery of equipment 4. Good financing terms 5. Good parts and service Caterpillar (marketer) Caterpillar Want List 1. Good price for equipment 2. On-time payment 3. Good word of mouth Construction Co. (prospect) Figure 1-2 Two-Party Exchange Map Showing Want Lists of Both Parties Marketing Channels To reach a target market, the marketer uses three kinds of marketing channels. Communication channels deliver messages to and receive messages from target buyers. They include newspapers, magazines, radio, television, mail, telephone, billboards, posters, fliers, CDs, audiotapes, and the Internet. Beyond these, communications are conveyed by facial expressions and clothing, the look of retail stores, and many other media. Marketers are increasingly adding dialogue channels (e-mail and toll-free numbers) to counterbalance the more normal monologue channels (such as ads). The marketer uses distribution channels to display or deliver the physical product or service(s) to the buyer or user. There are physical distribution channels and service distribution channels, which include warehouses, transportation vehicles, and various trade channels such as distributors, wholesalers, and retailers. The marketer also uses selling channels to effect transactions with potential buyers. Selling channels include not only the distributors and retailers but also the banks and insurance companies that facilitate transactions. Marketers clearly face a design problem in choosing the best mix of communication, distribution, and selling channels for their offerings. Supply Chain Whereas marketing channels connect the marketer to the target buyers, the supply chain describes a longer channel stretching from raw materials to components to final products that are carried to final buyers. For example, the supply chain for women’s purses starts with hides, tanning operations, cutting operations, manufacturing, and the marketing channels that bring products to customers. This supply chain represents a value delivery system. Each company captures only a certain percentage of the total value generated by the supply chain. When a company acquires competitors or moves upstream or downstream, its aim is to capture a higher percentage of supply chain value. Competition Competition, a critical factor in marketing management, includes all of the actual and potential rival offerings and substitutes that a buyer might consider. Suppose an automobile company is planning to buy steel for its cars. The car manufacturer can buy from U.S. Steel or other U.S. or foreign integrated steel mills; can go to a minimill such
Slide 12: Marketing Tasks 9 as Nucor to buy steel at a cost savings; can buy aluminum for certain parts of the car to lighten the car’s weight; or can buy some engineered plastics parts instead of steel. Clearly U.S. Steel would be thinking too narrowly of competition if it thought only of other integrated steel companies. In fact, U.S. Steel is more likely to be hurt in the long run by substitute products than by its immediate steel company rivals. U.S. Steel also must consider whether to make substitute materials or stick only to those applications in which steel offers superior performance. We can broaden the picture by distinguishing four levels of competition, based on degree of product substitutability: 1. Brand competition: A company sees its competitors as other companies that offer similar products and services to the same customers at similar prices. Volkswagen might see its major competitors as Toyota, Honda, and other manufacturers of mediumprice automobiles, rather than Mercedes or Hyundai. 2. Industry competition: A company sees its competitors as all companies that make the same product or class of products. Thus, Volkswagen would be competing against all other car manufacturers. 3. Form competition: A company sees its competitors as all companies that manufacture products that supply the same service. Volkswagen would see itself competing against manufacturers of all vehicles, such as motorcycles, bicycles, and trucks. 4. Generic competition: A company sees its competitors as all companies that compete for the same consumer dollars. Volkswagen would see itself competing with companies that sell major consumer durables, foreign vacations, and new homes. Marketing Environment Competition represents only one force in the environment in which all marketers operate. The overall marketing environment consists of the task environment and the broad environment. The task environment includes the immediate actors involved in producing, distributing, and promoting the offering, including the company, suppliers, distributors, dealers, and the target customers. Material suppliers and service suppliers such as marketing research agencies, advertising agencies, Web site designers, banking and insurance companies, and transportation and telecommunications companies are included in the supplier group. Agents, brokers, manufacturer representatives, and others who facilitate finding and selling to customers are included with distributors and dealers. The broad environment consists of six components: demographic environment, economic environment, natural environment, technological environment, political-legal environment, and social-cultural environment. These environments contain forces that can have a major impact on the actors in the task environment, which is why smart marketers track environmental trends and changes closely. Marketing Mix Marketers use numerous tools to elicit the desired responses from their target markets. These tools constitute a marketing mix:12 Marketing mix is the set of marketing tools that the firm uses to pursue its marketing objectives in the target market. As shown in Figure 1-3, McCarthy classified these tools into four broad groups that he called the four Ps of marketing: product, price, place, and promotion.13 Marketing-mix decisions must be made to influence the trade channels as well as the final consumers. Typically, the firm can change its price, sales-force size, and advertising expenditures in the short run. However, it can develop new products and modify its distribution channels only in the long run. Thus, the firm typically makes fewer
Slide 13: 10 CHAPTER 1 MARKETING IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY Marketing Mix Product Product variety Quality Design Features Brand name Packaging Sizes Services Warranties Returns Target market Place Channels Coverage Assortments Locations Inventory Transport Price List price Discounts Allowances Payment period Credit terms Promotion Sales promotion Advertising Sales force Public relations Direct marketing Figure 1-3 The Four P Components of the Marketing Mix period-to-period marketing-mix changes in the short run than the number of marketing-mix decision variables might suggest. Robert Lauterborn suggested that the sellers’ four Ps correspond to the customers’ four Cs.14 Four Ps Product Price Place Promotion Four Cs Customer solution Customer cost Convenience Communication Winning companies are those that meet customer needs economically and conveniently and with effective communication. COMPANY ORIENTATIONS TOWARD THE MARKETPLACE Marketing management is the conscious effort to achieve desired exchange outcomes with target markets. But what philosophy should guide a company’s marketing efforts? What relative weights should be given to the often conflicting interests of the organization, customers, and society? For example, one of Dexter Corporation’s most popular products was a profitable grade of paper used in tea bags. Unfortunately, the materials in this paper accounted for 98 percent of Dexter’s hazardous wastes. So while Dexter’s product was popular with customers, it was also detrimental to the environment. Dexter assigned an employee task force to tackle this problem. The task force succeeded, and the company increased its market share while virtually eliminating hazardous waste.15
Slide 14: Company Orientations Toward the Marketplace 11 Clearly, marketing activities should be carried out under a well-thought-out philosophy of efficient, effective, and socially responsible marketing. In fact, there are five competing concepts under which organizations conduct marketing activities: production concept, product concept, selling concept, marketing concept, and societal marketing concept. The Production Concept The production concept, one of the oldest in business, holds that consumers prefer products that are widely available and inexpensive. Managers of production-oriented businesses concentrate on achieving high production efficiency, low costs, and mass distribution. This orientation makes sense in developing countries, where consumers are more interested in obtaining the product than in its features. It is also used when a company wants to expand the market. Texas Instruments is a leading exponent of this concept. It concentrates on building production volume and upgrading technology in order to bring costs down, leading to lower prices and expansion of the market. This orientation has also been a key strategy of many Japanese companies. The Product Concept Other businesses are guided by the product concept, which holds that consumers favor those products that offer the most quality, performance, or innovative features. Managers in these organizations focus on making superior products and improving them over time, assuming that buyers can appraise quality and performance. Product-oriented companies often design their products with little or no customer input, trusting that their engineers can design exceptional products. A General Motors executive said years ago: “How can the public know what kind of car they want until they see what is available?” GM today asks customers what they value in a car and includes marketing people in the very beginning stages of design. However, the product concept can lead to marketing myopia.16 Railroad management thought that travelers wanted trains rather than transportation and overlooked the growing competition from airlines, buses, trucks, and automobiles. Colleges, department stores, and the post office all assume that they are offering the public the right product and wonder why their sales slip. These organizations too often are looking into a mirror when they should be looking out of the window. The Selling Concept The selling concept, another common business orientation, holds that consumers and businesses, if left alone, will ordinarily not buy enough of the organization’s products. The organization must, therefore, undertake an aggressive selling and promotion effort. This concept assumes that consumers must be coaxed into buying, so the company has a battery of selling and promotion tools to stimulate buying. The selling concept is practiced most aggressively with unsought goods—goods that buyers normally do not think of buying, such as insurance and funeral plots. The selling concept is also practiced in the nonprofit area by fund-raisers, college admissions offices, and political parties. Most firms practice the selling concept when they have overcapacity. Their aim is to sell what they make rather than make what the market wants. In modern industrial economies, productive capacity has been built up to a point where most markets are buyer markets (the buyers are dominant) and sellers have to scramble for customers. Prospects are bombarded with sales messages. As a result, the public often identifies marketing with hard selling and advertising. But marketing based on hard selling carries high risks. It assumes that customers who are coaxed into buying a product will like it;
Slide 15: 12 CHAPTER 1 MARKETING IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY and if they don’t, that they won’t bad-mouth it or complain to consumer organizations and will forget their disappointment and buy it again. These are indefensible assumptions. In fact, one study showed that dissatisfied customers may bad-mouth the product to 10 or more acquaintances; bad news travels fast, something marketers that use hard selling should bear in mind.17 The Marketing Concept The marketing concept, based on central tenets crystallized in the mid-1950s, challenges the three business orientations we just discussed.18 The marketing concept holds that the key to achieving organizational goals consists of the company being more effective than its competitors in creating, delivering, and communicating customer value to its chosen target markets. Theodore Levitt of Harvard drew a perceptive contrast between the selling and marketing concepts: “Selling focuses on the needs of the seller; marketing on the needs of the buyer. Selling is preoccupied with the seller’s need to convert his product into cash; marketing with the idea of satisfying the needs of the customer by means of the product and the whole cluster of things associated with creating, delivering and finally consuming it.”19 The marketing concept rests on four pillars: target market, customer needs, integrated marketing, and profitability. The selling concept takes an inside-out perspective. It starts with the factory, focuses on existing products, and calls for heavy selling and promoting to produce profitable sales. The marketing concept takes an outside-in perspective. It starts with a well-defined market, focuses on customer needs, coordinates activities that affect customers, and produces profits by satisfying customers. Target Market Companies do best when they choose their target market(s) carefully and prepare tailored marketing programs. For example, when cosmetics giant Estee Lauder recognized the increased buying power of minority groups, its Prescriptives subsidiary launched an “All Skins” line offering 115 foundation shades for different skin tones. Prescriptives credits All Skins for a 45 percent sales increase since this product line was launched. Customer Needs A company can carefully define its target market yet fail to correctly understand the customers’ needs. Clearly, understanding customer needs and wants is not always simple. Some customers have needs of which they are not fully conscious; some cannot articulate these needs or use words that require some interpretation. We can distinguish among five types of needs: (1) stated needs, (2) real needs, (3) unstated needs, (4) delight needs, and (5) secret needs. Responding only to the stated need may shortchange the customer. For example, if a customer enters a hardware store and asks for a sealant to seal glass window panes, she is stating a solution, not a need. If the salesperson suggests that tape would provide a better solution, the customer may appreciate that the salesperson met her need and not her stated solution. A distinction needs to be drawn between responsive marketing, anticipative marketing, and creative marketing. A responsive marketer finds a stated need and fills it, while an anticipative marketer looks ahead to the needs that customers may have in the near future. In contrast, a creative marketer discovers and produces solutions that customers did not ask for, but to which they enthusiastically respond. Sony exemplifies a creative marketer because it has introduced many successful new products that customers never asked for or even thought were possible: Walkmans, VCRs, and so on. Sony goes beyond customer-led marketing: It is a market-driving firm, not just a market-driven firm. Akio Morita, its founder, proclaimed that he doesn’t serve markets; he creates markets.20
Slide 16: Company Orientations Toward the Marketplace 13 Why is it supremely important to satisfy the needs of target customers? Because a company’s sales come from two groups: new customers and repeat customers. One estimate is that attracting a new customer can cost five times as much as pleasing an existing one.21 And it might cost 16 times as much to bring the new customer to the same level of profitability as that of the lost customer. Customer retention is thus more important than customer attraction. Integrated Marketing When all of the company’s departments work together to serve the customers’ interests, the result is integrated marketing. Integrated marketing takes place on two levels. First, the various marketing functions—sales force, advertising, customer service, product management, marketing research—must work together. All of these functions must be coordinated from the customer’s point of view. Second, marketing must be embraced by the other departments. According to David Packard of Hewlett-Packard: “Marketing is far too important to be left only to the marketing department!” Marketing is not a department so much as a companywide orientation. Xerox, for example, goes so far as to include in every job description an explanation of how each job affects the customer. Xerox factory managers know that visits to the factory can help sell a potential customer if the factory is clean and efficient. Xerox accountants know that customer attitudes are affected by Xerox’s billing accuracy. To foster teamwork among all departments, the company must carry out internal marketing as well as external marketing. External marketing is marketing directed at people outside the company. Internal marketing is the task of hiring, training, and motivating able employees who want to serve customers well. In fact, internal marketing must precede external marketing. It makes no sense to promise excellent service before the company’s staff is ready to provide it. Managers who believe the customer is the company’s only true “profit center” consider the traditional organization chart—a pyramid with the CEO at the top, management in the middle, and front-line people and customers at the bottom—obsolete. Master marketing companies invert the chart, putting customers at the top. Next in importance are the front-line people who meet, serve, and satisfy the customers; under them are the middle managers, who support the front-line people so they can serve the customers; and at the base is top management, whose job is to hire and support good middle managers. Profitability The ultimate purpose of the marketing concept is to help organizations achieve their objectives. In the case of private firms, the major objective is profit; in the case of nonprofit and public organizations, it is surviving and attracting enough funds to perform useful work. Private firms should aim to achieve profits as a consequence of creating superior customer value, by satisfying customer needs better than competitors. For example, Perdue Farms has achieved above-average margins marketing chicken—a commodity if there ever was one! The company has always aimed to control breeding and other factors in order to produce tender-tasting chickens for which discriminating customers will pay more.22 How many companies actually practice the marketing concept? Unfortunately, too few. Only a handful of companies stand out as master marketers: Procter & Gamble, Disney, Nordstrom, Wal-Mart, Milliken & Company, McDonald’s, Marriott Hotels, American Airlines, and several Japanese (Sony, Toyota, Canon) and European companies (IKEA, Club Med, Nokia, ABB, Marks & Spencer). These companies focus on the customer and are organized to respond effectively to changing customer
Slide 17: 14 CHAPTER 1 MARKETING IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY needs. They all have well-staffed marketing departments, and all of their other departments—manufacturing, finance, research and development, personnel, purchasing— accept the customer as king. Most companies do not embrace the marketing concept until driven to it by circumstances. Various developments prod them to take the marketing concept to heart, including sales declines, slow growth, changing buying patterns, more competition, and higher expenses. Despite the benefits, firms face three hurdles in converting to a marketing orientation: organized resistance, slow learning, and fast forgetting. Some company departments (often manufacturing, finance, and research and development) believe a stronger marketing function threatens their power in the organization. Resistance is especially strong in industries in which marketing is being introduced for the first time—for instance, in law offices, colleges, deregulated industries, and government agencies. In spite of the resistance, many companies manage to introduce some marketing thinking into their organization. Over time, marketing emerges as the major function. Ultimately, the customer becomes the controlling function, and with that view, marketing can emerge as the integrative function within the organization. The Societal Marketing Concept Some have questioned whether the marketing concept is an appropriate philosophy in an age of environmental deterioration, resource shortages, explosive population growth, world hunger and poverty, and neglected social services. Are companies that successfully satisfy consumer wants necessarily acting in the best, long-run interests of consumers and society? The marketing concept sidesteps the potential conflicts among consumer wants, consumer interests, and long-run societal welfare. Yet some firms and industries are criticized for satisfying consumer wants at society’s expense. Such situations call for a new term that enlarges the marketing concept. We propose calling it the societal marketing concept, which holds that the organization’s task is to determine the needs, wants, and interests of target markets and to deliver the desired satisfactions more effectively and efficiently than competitors in a way that preserves or enhances the consumer’s and the society’s well-being. The societal marketing concept calls upon marketers to build social and ethical considerations into their marketing practices. They must balance and juggle the often conflicting criteria of company profits, consumer want satisfaction, and public interest. Yet a number of companies have achieved notable sales and profit gains by adopting and practicing the societal marketing concept. Some companies practice a form of the societal marketing concept called causerelated marketing. Pringle and Thompson define this as “activity by which a company with an image, product, or service to market builds a relationship or partnership with a ‘cause,’ or a number of ‘causes,’ for mutual benefit.”23 They see it as affording an opportunity for companies to enhance their corporate reputation, raise brand awareness, increase customer loyalty, build sales, and increase press coverage. They believe that customers will increasingly look for demonstrations of good corporate citizenship. Smart companies will respond by adding “higher order” image attributes than simply rational and emotional benefits. Critics, however, complain that cause-related marketing might make consumers feel they have fulfilled their philanthropic duties by buying products instead of donating to causes directly. HOW BUSINESS AND MARKETING ARE CHANGING We can say with some confidence that “the marketplace isn’t what it used to be.” It is changing radically as a result of major forces such as technological advances, globalization, and deregulation. These forces have created new behaviors and challenges:
Slide 18: How Business and Marketing are Changing 15 Customers increasingly expect higher quality and service and some customization. They perceive fewer real product differences and show less brand loyalty. They can obtain extensive product information from the Internet and other sources, permitting them to shop more intelligently. They are showing greater price sensitivity in their search for value. Brand manufacturers are facing intense competition from domestic and foreign brands, which is resulting in rising promotion costs and shrinking profit margins. They are being further buffeted by powerful retailers who command limited shelf space and are putting out their own store brands in competition with national brands. Store-based retailers are suffering from an oversaturation of retailing. Small retailers are succumbing to the growing power of giant retailers and “category killers.” Store-based retailers are facing growing competition from direct-mail firms; newspaper, magazine, and TV direct-to-customer ads; home shopping TV; and the Internet. As a result, they are experiencing shrinking margins. In response, entrepreneurial retailers are building entertainment into stores with coffee bars, lectures, demonstrations, and performances, marketing an “experience” rather than a product assortment. Company Responses and Adjustments Given these changes, companies are doing a lot of soul-searching, and many highly respected firms are adjusting in a number of ways. Here are some current trends: ➤ ➤ Reengineering: From focusing on functional departments to reorganizing by key processes, each managed by multidiscipline teams. Outsourcing: From making everything inside the company to buying more products from outside if they can be obtained cheaper and better. Virtual companies outsource everything, so they own very few assets and, therefore, earn extraordinary rates of return. E-commerce: From attracting customers to stores and having salespeople call on offices to making virtually all products available on the Internet. Business-tobusiness purchasing is growing fast on the Internet, and personal selling can increasingly be conducted electronically. Benchmarking: From relying on self-improvement to studying world-class performers and adopting best practices. Alliances: From trying to win alone to forming networks of partner firms.24 Partner–suppliers: From using many suppliers to using fewer but more reliable suppliers who work closely in a “partnership” relationship with the company. Market-centered: From organizing by products to organizing by market segment. Global and local: From being local to being both global and local. Decentralized: From being managed from the top to encouraging more initiative and “intrepreneurship” at the local level. ➤ ➤ ➤ ➤ ➤ ➤ ➤ Marketer Responses and Adjustments As the environment changes and companies adjust, marketers also are rethinking their philosophies, concepts, and tools. Here are the major marketing themes at the start of the new millennium: ➤ Relationship marketing: From focusing on transactions to building long-term, profitable customer relationships. Companies focus on their most profitable customers, products, and channels.
Slide 19: 16 ➤ CHAPTER 1 MARKETING IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY Customer lifetime value: From making a profit on each sale to making profits by managing customer lifetime value. Some companies offer to deliver a constantly needed product on a regular basis at a lower price per unit because they will enjoy the customer’s business for a longer period. Customer share: From a focus on gaining market share to a focus on building customer share. Companies build customer share by offering a larger variety of goods to their existing customers and by training employees in cross-selling and up-selling. Target marketing: From selling to everyone to trying to be the best firm serving welldefined target markets. Target marketing is being facilitated by the proliferation of special-interest magazines, TV channels, and Internet newsgroups. Individualization: From selling the same offer in the same way to everyone in the target market to individualizing and customizing messages and offerings. Customer database: From collecting sales data to building a data warehouse of information about individual customers’ purchases, preferences, demographics, and profitability. Companies can “data-mine” their proprietary databases to detect different customer need clusters and make differentiated offerings to each cluster. Integrated marketing communications: From reliance on one communication tool such as advertising to blending several tools to deliver a consistent brand image to customers at every brand contact. Channels as partners: From thinking of intermediaries as customers to treating them as partners in delivering value to final customers. Every employee a marketer: From thinking that marketing is done only by marketing, sales, and customer support personnel to recognizing that every employee must be customer-focused. Model-based decision making: From making decisions on intuition or slim data to basing decisions on models and facts on how the marketplace works. ➤ ➤ ➤ ➤ ➤ ➤ ➤ ➤ These major themes will be examined throughout this book to help marketers and companies sail safely through the rough, but promising, waters ahead. Successful companies will change their marketing as fast as their marketplaces and marketspaces change, so they can build customer satisfaction, value, and retention, the subject of Chapter 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY All marketers need to be aware of the effect of globalization, technology, and deregulation. Rather than try to satisfy everyone, marketers start with market segmentation and develop a market offering that is positioned in the minds of the target market. To satisfy the target market’s needs, wants, and demands, marketers create a product, one of the 10 types of entities (goods, services, experiences, events, persons, places, properties, organizations, information, and ideas). Marketers must search hard for the core need they are trying to satisfy, remembering that their products will be successful only if they deliver value (the ratio of benefits and costs) to customers. Every marketing exchange requires at least two parties—both with something valued by the other party, both capable of communication and delivery, both free to accept or reject the offer, and both finding it appropriate or desirable to deal with the other. One agreement to exchange constitutes a transaction, part of the larger idea of relationship marketing. Through relationship marketing, organizations aim to build enduring, mutually satisfying bonds with customers and other key parties to earn and retain their long-term business. Reaching out to a target market entails communica-
Slide 20: Notes 17 tion channels, distribution channels, and selling channels. The supply chain, which stretches from raw materials to the final products for final buyers, represents a value delivery system. Marketers can capture more of the supply chain value by acquiring competitors or expanding upstream or downstream. In the marketing environment, marketers face brand, industry, form, and generic competition. The marketing environment can be divided into the task environment (the immediate actors in producing, distributing, and promoting the product offering) and the broad environment (forces in the demographic, economic, natural, technological, political-legal, and social-cultural environment). To succeed, marketers must pay close attention to the trends and developments in these environments and make timely adjustments to their marketing strategies. Within these environments, marketers apply the marketing mix—the set of marketing tools used to pursue marketing objectives in the target market. The marketing mix consists of the four Ps: product, price, place, and promotion. Companies can adopt one of five orientations toward the marketplace. The production concept assumes that consumers want widely available, affordable products; the product concept assumes that consumers want products with the most quality, performance, or innovative features; the selling concept assumes that customers will not buy enough products without an aggressive selling and promotion effort; the marketing concept assumes the firm must be better than competitors in creating, delivering, and communicating customer value to its chosen target markets; and the societal marketing concept assumes that the firm must satisfy customers more effectively and efficiently than competitors while still preserving the consumer’s and the society’s wellbeing. Keeping this concept in mind, smart companies will add “higher order” image attributes to supplement both rational and emotional benefits. The combination of technology, globalization, and deregulation is influencing customers, brand manufacturers, and store-based retailers in a variety of ways. Responding to the changes and new demands brought on by these forces has caused many companies to make adjustments. In turn, savvy marketers must also alter their marketing activities, tools, and approaches to keep pace with the changes they will face today and tomorrow. NOTES 1. Sam Hill and Glenn Rifkin, Radical Marketing (New York: HarperBusiness, 1999). 2. “Boston Beer Reports Barrelage Down, But Net Sales Stable,” Modern Brewery Age, March 1, 1999, accessed on www.hoovers.com. 3. Jay Conrad Levinson and Seth Grodin, The Guerrilla Marketing Handbook (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1994). 4. See Irving J. Rein, Philip Kotler, and Martin Stoller, High Visibility (Chicago: NTC Publishers, 1998). 5. See Philip Kotler, Irving J. Rein, and Donald Haider, Marketing Places: Attracting Investment, Industry, and Tourism to Cities, States, and Nations (New York: Free Press, 1993). 6. See Carl Shapiro and Hal R. Varian, “Versioning: The Smart Way to Sell Information,” Harvard Business Review, November–December 1998, pp. 106–14. 7. Peter Drucker, Management: Tasks, Responsibilities, Practices (New York: Harper & Row, 1973), pp. 64–65. 8. Dictionary of Marketing Terms, 2d ed., ed. Peter D. Bennett (Chicago: American Marketing Association, 1995). 9. From a lecture by Mohan Sawhney, faculty member at Kellogg Graduate School of Management, Northwestern University, June 4, 1998.
Slide 21: 18 CHAPTER 1 MARKETING IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY 10. See Regis McKenna, Relationship Marketing (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1991); Martin Christopher, Adrian Payne, and David Ballantyne, Relationship Marketing: Bringing Quality, Customer Service, and Marketing Together (Oxford, UK: Butterworth-Heinemann, 1991); and Jagdish N. Sheth and Atul Parvatiyar, eds., Relationship Marketing: Theory, Methods, and Applications, 1994 Research Conference Proceedings, Center for Relationship Marketing, Roberto C. Goizueta Business School, Emory University, Atlanta, GA. 11. See James C. Anderson, Hakan Hakansson, and Jan Johanson, “Dyadic Business Relationships Within a Business Network Context,” Journal of Marketing, October 15, 1994, pp. 1–15. 12. See Neil H. Borden, The Concept of the Marketing Mix, Journal of Advertising Research, 4 ( June): 2–7. For another framework, see George S. Day, “The Capabilities of MarketDriven Organizations,” Journal of Marketing, 58, no. 4 (October 1994): 37–52. 13. E. Jerome McCarthy, Basic Marketing: A Managerial Approach, 13th ed. (Homewood, IL: Irwin, 1999). Two alternative classifications are worth noting. Frey proposed that all marketing decision variables could be categorized into two factors: the offering (product, packaging, brand, price, and service) and methods and tools (distribution channels, personal selling, advertising, sales promotion, and publicity). 14. Robert Lauterborn, “New Marketing Litany: 4Ps Passe; C-Words Take Over,” Advertising Age, October 1, 1990, p. 26. Also see Frederick E. Webster Jr., “Defining the New Marketing Concept,” Marketing Management 2, no. 4 (1994), 22–31; and Frederick E. Webster Jr., “Executing the New Marketing Concept,” Marketing Management 3, no. 1 (1994): 8–16. See also Ajay Menon and Anil Menon, “Enviropreneurial Marketing Strategy: The Emergence of Corporate Environmentalism as Marketing Strategy,” Journal of Marketing 61, no. 1 ( January 1997): 51–67. 15. Kathleen Dechant and Barbara Altman, “Environmental Leadership: From Compliance to Competitive Advantage,” Academy of Management Executive 8, no. 3 (1994): 7–19. Also see Gregory R. Elliott, “The Marketing Concept: Necessary, but Sufficient? An Environmental View,” European Journal of Marketing 24, no. 8 (1990): 20–30. 16. See Theodore Levitt’s classic article, “Marketing Myopia,” Harvard Business Review, July–August 1960, pp. 45–56. 17. See Karl Albrecht and Ron Zemke, Service America! (Homewood, IL: Dow Jones-Irwin, 1985), pp. 6–7. 18. See John B. McKitterick, “What Is the Marketing Management Concept?” The Frontiers of Marketing Thought and Action (Chicago: American Marketing Association, 1957), pp. 71–82; Fred J. Borch, The Marketing Philosophy as a Way of Business Life, The Marketing Concept: Its Meaning to Management, Marketing series, no. 99 (New York: American Management Association, 1957), pp. 3–5; and Robert J. Keith, “The Marketing Revolution,” Journal of Marketing, January 1960, pp. 35–38. 19. Levitt, “Marketing Myopia,” p. 50. 20. Akio Morita, Made in Japan (New York: Dutton, 1986), ch. 1. 21. See Patricia Sellers, “Getting Customers to Love You,” Fortune, March 13, 1989, pp. 38–49. 22. Suzanne L. MacLachlan, “Son Now Beats Perdue Drumstick,” Christian Science Monitor, March 9, 1995, p. 9; Sharon Nelton, “Crowing over Leadership Succession,” Nation’s Business, May 1995, p. 52. 23. See Hanish Pringle and Marjorie Thompson, Brand Soul: How Cause-Related Marketing Builds Brands (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1999). Also see Marilyn Collins, “Global Corporate Philanthropy—Marketing Beyond the Call of Duty?” European Journal of Marketing 27, no. 2 (1993): 46–58. 24. See Leonard L. Berry, Discovering the Soul of Service (New York: Free Press, 1999), especially ch. 7.
Slide 22: Winning Markets Through Strategic Planning, Implementation, and Control We will address the following questions: ■ How is strategic planning carried out at the corporate, division, and business-unit levels? ■ What are the major steps in planning the marketing process? ■ How can a company effectively manage the marketing process? H ow do companies compete in a global marketplace? One part of the answer is a commitment to creating and retaining satisfied customers. We can now add a second part: Successful companies know how to adapt to a continuously changing marketplace through strategic planning and careful management of the marketing process. In most large companies, corporate headquarters is responsible for designing a corporate strategic plan to guide the whole enterprise and deciding about resource allocations as well as starting and eliminating particular businesses. Guided by the corporate strategic plan, each division establishes a division plan for each business unit within the division; in turn, each business unit develops a business unit strategic plan. Finally, the managers of each product line and brand within a business unit develop a marketing plan for achieving their objectives. However, the development of a marketing plan is not the end of the marketing process. High-performance firms must hone their expertise in organizing, implementing, and controlling marketing activities as they follow marketing results closely, diagnose problems, and take corrective action when necessary. In today’s fast-paced business world, the ability to effectively manage the marketing process—beginning to end—has become an extremely important competitive advantage. 39
Slide 23: 40 CHAPTER 3 WINNING MARKETS THROUGH STRATEGIC PLANNING, IMPLEMENTATION, AND CONTROL CORPORATE AND DIVISION STRATEGIC PLANNING Marketing plays a critical role in corporate strategic planning within successful companies. Market-oriented strategic planning is the managerial process of developing and maintaining a viable fit among the organization’s objectives, skills, and resources and its changing market opportunities. The aim of strategic planning is to shape the company’s businesses and products so that they yield target profits and growth and keep the company healthy despite any unexpected threats that may arise. Strategic planning calls for action in three key areas. The first area is managing a company’s businesses as an investment portfolio. The second area involves assessing each business’s strength by considering the market’s growth rate and the company’s position and fit in that market. And the third area is the development of strategy, a game plan for achieving long-term objectives. The complete strategic planning, implementation, and control cycle is shown in Figure 1-4. Corporate headquarters starts the strategic planning process by preparing statements of mission, policy, strategy, and goals, establishing the framework within which the divisions and business units will prepare their plans. Some corporations allow their business units a great deal of freedom in setting sales and profit goals and strategies. Others set goals for their business units but let them develop their own strategies. Still others set the goals and get involved heavily in the individual business unit strategies.1 Regardless of the degree of involvement, all strategic plans are based on the corporate mission. Defining the Corporate Mission An organization exists to accomplish something: to make cars, lend money, provide a night’s lodging, and so on. Its specific mission or purpose is usually clear when the business starts. Over time, however, the mission may lose its relevance because of changed market conditions or may become unclear as the corporation adds new products and markets. When management senses that the organization is drifting from its mission, it must renew its search for purpose. According to Peter Drucker, it is time to ask some fundamental questions.2 What is our business? Who is the customer? What is of value to the customer? What will our business be? What should our business be? Successful companies continuously raise these questions and answer them thoughtfully and thoroughly. Figure 1-4 The Strategic Planning, Implementation, and Control Process Planning Corporate planning Division planning Business planning Product planning Taking corrective action Implementing Organizing Implementing Diagnosing results Controlling Measuring results
Slide 24: Corporate and Division Strategic Planning 41 A well-worked-out mission statement provides employees with a shared sense of purpose, direction, and opportunity. It also guides geographically dispersed employees to work independently and yet collectively toward realizing the organization’s goals. The mission statement of Motorola, for example, is “to honorably serve the needs of the community by providing products and services of superior quality at a fair price to our customers; to do this so as to earn an adequate profit which is required for the total enterprise to grow; and by so doing provide the opportunity for our employees and shareholders to achieve their reasonable personal objectives.” Good mission statements focus on a limited number of goals, stress the company’s major policies and values, and define the company’s major competitive scopes. These include: ➤ Industry scope: The industry or range of industries in which a company will operate. For example, DuPont operates in the industrial market; Dow operates in the industrial and consumer markets; and 3M will go into almost any industry where it can make money. Products and applications scope: The range of products and applications that a company will supply. St. Jude Medical aims to “serve physicians worldwide with highquality products for cardiovascular care.” Competence scope: The range of technological and other core competencies that a company will master and leverage. Japan’s NEC has built its core competencies in computing, communications, and components to support production of laptop computers, televisions, and other electronics items. Market-segment scope: The type of market or customers a company will serve. For example, Porsche makes only expensive cars for the upscale market and licenses its name for high-quality accessories. Vertical scope: The number of channel levels from raw material to final product and distribution in which a company will participate. At one extreme are companies with a large vertical scope; at the other extreme are firms with low or no vertical integration that may outsource design, manufacture, marketing, and physical distribution.3 Geographical scope: The range of regions or countries in which a company will operate. At one extreme are companies that operate in a specific city or state. At the other extreme are multinationals such as Unilever and Caterpillar, which operate in almost every one of the world’s countries. ➤ ➤ ➤ ➤ ➤ A company must redefine its mission if that mission has lost credibility or no longer defines an optimal course for the company.4 Kodak redefined itself from a film company to an image company so that it could add digital imaging;5 Sara Lee redefined itself by outsourcing manufacturing and becoming a marketer of brands. The corporate mission provides direction for the firm’s various business units. Establishing Strategic Business Units A business can be defined in terms of three dimensions: customer groups, customer needs, and technology.6 For example, a company that defines its business as designing incandescent lighting systems for television studios would have television studios as its customer group; lighting as its customer need; and incandescent lighting as its technology. In line with Levitt’s argument that market definitions of a business are superior to product definitions,7 these three dimensions describe the business in terms of a customer-satisfying process, not a goods-producing process. Thus, Xerox’s product
Slide 25: 42 CHAPTER 3 WINNING MARKETS THROUGH STRATEGIC PLANNING, IMPLEMENTATION, AND CONTROL definition would be “We make copying equipment,” while its market definition would be “We help improve office productivity.” Similarly, Missouri-Pacific Railroad’s product definition would be “We run a railroad,” while its market definition would be “We are a people-and-goods mover.” Large companies normally manage quite different businesses, each requiring its own strategy; General Electric, as one example, has established 49 strategic business units (SBUs). An SBU has three characteristics: (1) It is a single business or collection of related businesses that can be planned separately from the rest of the company; (2) it has its own set of competitors; and (3) it has a manager responsible for strategic planning and profit performance who controls most of the factors affecting profit. Assigning Resources to SBUs The purpose of identifying the company’s strategic business units is to develop separate strategies and assign appropriate funding to the entire business portfolio. Senior managers generally apply analytical tools to classify all of their SBUs according to profit potential. Two of the best-known business portfolio evaluation models are the Boston Consulting Group model and the General Electric model.8 The Boston Consulting Group Approach The Boston Consulting Group (BCG), a leading management consulting firm, developed and popularized the growth-share matrix shown in Figure 1-5. The eight circles represent the current sizes and positions of eight business units in a hypothetical company. The dollar-volume size of each business is proportional to the circle’s area. Thus, the two largest businesses are 5 and 6. The location of each business unit indicates its market growth rate and relative market share. The market growth rate on the vertical axis indicates the annual growth rate of the market in which the business operates. Relative market share, which is measured on the horizontal axis, refers to the SBU’s market share relative to that of its largest competitor in the segment. It serves as a measure of the company’s strength in the relevant market segment. The growth-share matrix is divided into four cells, each indicating a different type of business: ➤ Question marks are businesses that operate in high-growth markets but have low relative market shares. Most businesses start off as question marks as the company tries to enter a high-growth market in which there is already a market leader. A question mark requires a lot of cash because the company is spending money on plant, equipment, and personnel. The term question mark is appropriate because the company has to think hard about whether to keep pouring money into this business. Stars are market leaders in a high-growth market. A star was once a question mark, but it does not necessarily produce positive cash flow; the company must still spend to keep up with the high market growth and fight off competition. Cash cows are former stars with the largest relative market share in a slow-growth market. A cash cow produces a lot of cash for the company (due to economies of scale and higher profit margins), paying the company’s bills and supporting its other businesses. Dogs are businesses with weak market shares in low-growth markets; typically, these generate low profits or even losses. ➤ ➤ ➤ After plotting its various businesses in the growth-share matrix, a company must determine whether the portfolio is healthy. An unbalanced portfolio would have too many
Slide 26: Corporate and Division Strategic Planning 43 Stars 20% 18% 16% Market Growth Rate 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0 2x 1.5x 6 7 5 Cash Cow 4 Question Marks 1 3 2 Dogs 8 0.5x 0.4x 0.3x 0.2x 0.1x 10x 4x 1x Relative Market Share Figure 1-5 The Boston Consulting Group’s Growth-Share Matrix dogs or question marks or too few stars and cash cows. The next task is to determine what objective, strategy, and budget to assign to each SBU. Four strategies can be pursued: 1. Build: The objective here is to increase market share, even forgoing short-term earnings to achieve this objective if necessary. Building is appropriate for question marks whose market shares must grow if they are to become stars. Hold: The objective in a hold strategy is to preserve market share, an appropriate strategy for strong cash cows if they are to continue yielding a large positive cash flow. 2. 3. Harvest: The objective here is to increase short-term cash flow regardless of long-term effect. Harvesting involves a decision to withdraw from a business by implementing a program of continuous cost retrenchment. The hope is to reduce costs faster than any potential drop in sales, thus boosting cash flow. This strategy is appropriate for weak cash cows whose future is dim and from which more cash flow is needed. Harvesting can also be used with question marks and dogs. 4. Divest: The objective is to sell or liquidate the business because the resources can be better used elsewhere. This is appropriate for dogs and question marks that are dragging down company profits. Successful SBUs move through a life cycle, starting as question marks and becoming stars, then cash cows, and finally dogs. Given this life-cycle movement, companies should be aware not only of their SBUs’ current positions in the growth-share matrix (as in a snapshot), but also of their moving positions (as in a motion picture). If an SBU’s expected future trajectory is not satisfactory, the corporation will need to work out a new strategy to improve the likely trajectory.
Slide 27: 44 CHAPTER 3 WINNING MARKETS THROUGH STRATEGIC PLANNING, IMPLEMENTATION, AND CONTROL The General Electric Model An SBU’s appropriate objective cannot be determined solely by its position in the growth-share matrix. If additional factors are considered, the growth-share matrix can be seen as a special case of a multifactor portfolio matrix that General Electric (GE) pioneered. In this model, each business is rated in terms of two major dimensions— market attractiveness and business strength. These two factors make excellent marketing sense for rating a business. Companies are successful to the extent that they enter attractive markets and possess the required business strengths to succeed in those markets. If one of these factors is missing, the business will not produce outstanding results. Neither a strong company operating in an unattractive market nor a weak company operating in an attractive market will do well. Using these two dimensions, the GE matrix is divided into nine cells, as shown in Figure 1-6. The three cells in the upper-left corner indicate strong SBUs suitable for investment or growth. The diagonal cells stretching from the lower left to the upper right indicate SBUs of medium attractiveness; these should be pursued selectively and managed for earnings. The three cells in the lower-right corner indicate SBUs low in overall attractiveness, which the company may want to harvest or divest.9 In addition to identifying each SBU’s current position on the matrix, management should also forecast its expected position over the next 3 to 5 years. Making this determination involves analyzing product life cycle, expected competitor strategies, Figure 1-6 Market-Attractiveness Portfolio Strategies (a) Classification BUSINESS STRENGTH (b) Strategies BUSINESS STRENGTH 5.00 High Strong Medium Joints Weak Strong Medium Weak BUILD SELECTIVELY • Specialize around limited strengths • Seek ways to overcome weaknesses • Withdraw if indications of sustainable growth are lacking LIMITED EXPANSION OR HARVEST • Look for ways to expand without high risk; otherwise, minimize investment and rationalize operations DIVEST • Sell at time that will maximize cash value • Cut fixed costs and avoid investment meanwhile Hydraulic pumps MARKET ATTRACTIVENESS Medium Aerospace fittings PROTECT POSITION INVEST TO BUILD • Challenge for leadership • Invest to grow at maximum digestible rate • Build selectively on • Concentrate effort on strengths • Reinforce vulnerable areas maintaining strength 3.67 Clutches Flexible diaphragms BUILD SELECTIVELY Fuel pumps • Invest heavily in most • Build up ability to attractive segments counter competition 2.33 Relief valves • Emphasize profitability by raising productivity PROTECT AND REFOCUS • Manage for current SELECTIVITY/MANAGE FOR EARNINGS • Protect existing program • Concentrate investments in segments where profitability is good and risks are relatively low 1.00 5.00 Invest/grow MANAGE FOR EARNINGS • Protect position in most earnings profitable segments • Concentrate on attractive • Upgrade product line • Minimize investment segments • Defend strengths Low 3.67 2.33 Selectivity/earnings 1.00 Harvest/divest
Slide 28: Corporate and Division Strategic Planning 45 new technologies, economic events, and so on. Again, the purpose is to see where SBUs are as well as where they appear to be headed. Critique of Portfolio Models Both the BCG and GE portfolio models have a number of benefits. They can help managers think more strategically, better understand the economics of their SBUs, improve the quality of their plans, improve communication between SBU and corporate management, identify important issues, eliminate weaker SBUs, and strengthen their investment in more promising SBUs. However, portfolio models must be used cautiously. They may lead a firm to overemphasize market-share growth and entry into high-growth businesses or to neglect its current businesses. Also, the models’ results are sensitive to ratings and weights and can be manipulated to produce a desired location in the matrix. Finally, the models fail to delineate the synergies between two or more businesses, which means that making decisions for one business at a time might be risky. There is a danger of terminating a losing SBU that actually provides an essential core competence needed by several other business units. Overall, though, portfolio models have improved managers’ analytical and strategic capabilities and allowed them to make better decisions than they could with mere impressions.10 Planning New Businesses, Downsizing Older Businesses Corporate management often desires higher sales and profits than indicated by the projections for the SBU portfolio. The question then becomes how to grow much faster than the current businesses will permit. One option is to identify opportunities to achieve further growth within the company’s current businesses (intensive growth opportunities). A second option is to identify opportunities to build or acquire businesses that are related to the company’s current businesses (integrative growth opportunities). A third option is to identify opportunities to add attractive businesses that are unrelated to the company’s current businesses (diversification growth opportunities). ➤ Intensive growth. Ansoff has proposed the product–market expansion grid as a framework for detecting new intensive growth opportunities.11 In this grid, the company first considers whether it could gain more market share with its current products in current markets (market-penetration strategy) by encouraging current customers to buy more, attracting competitors’ customers, or convincing nonusers to start buying its products. Next it considers whether it can find or develop new markets for its current products (market-development strategy). Then it considers whether it can develop new products for its current markets (product-development strategy). Later it will also review opportunities to develop new products for new markets (diversification strategy). Integrative growth. Often a business’s sales and profits can be increased through backward integration (acquiring a supplier), forward integration (acquiring a distributor), or horizontal integration (acquiring a competitor). Diversification growth. This makes sense when good opportunities exist outside the present businesses. Three types of diversification are possible. The company could seek new products that have technological or marketing synergies with existing product lines, even though the new products themselves may appeal to a different group of customers (concentric diversification strategy). Second, the company might search for new products that appeal to its current customers but are technologically unrelated to the current product line (horizontal diversification strategy). Finally, the company might seek new businesses that have no relationship to the company’s current technology, products, or markets (conglomerate diversification strategy). ➤ ➤
Slide 29: 46 CHAPTER 3 WINNING MARKETS THROUGH STRATEGIC PLANNING, IMPLEMENTATION, AND CONTROL Of course, companies must not only develop new businesses, but also prune, harvest, or divest tired, old businesses in order to release needed resources and reduce costs. Weak businesses require a disproportionate amount of managerial attention; managers should therefore focus on growth opportunities rather than wasting energy and resources trying to save hemorrhaging businesses. BUSINESS STRATEGIC PLANNING Below the corporate level, the strategic-planning process for each business or SBU consists of the eight steps shown in Figure 1-7. We examine each step in the sections that follow. Business Mission Each business unit needs to define its specific mission within the broader company mission. Thus, a television studio-lighting-equipment company might define its mission as “The company aims to target major television studios and become their vendor of choice for lighting technologies that represent the most advanced and reliable studio lighting arrangements.” SWOT Analysis The overall evaluation of a business’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats is called SWOT analysis. SWOT analysis consists of an analysis of the external and internal environments. External Environment Analysis In general, a business unit has to monitor key macroenvironment forces (demographiceconomic, technological, political-legal, and social-cultural) and microenvironment actors (customers, competitors, distributors, and suppliers) that affect its ability to earn profits (see Chapter 4 for more detail). Then, for each trend or development, management needs to identify the associated marketing opportunities and threats. A marketing opportunity is an area of buyer need in which a company can perform profitably. Opportunities can be classified according to their attractiveness and their success probability. The company’s success probability depends on whether its busi- Figure 1-7 The Business Strategic-Planning Process External environment (opportunity & threat) analysis Business mission SWOT analysis Internal environment (strengths/ weaknesses) analysis Goal formulation Strategy formulation Program formulation Implementation Feedback and control
Slide 30: Business Strategic Planning 47 ness strengths not only match the key success requirements for operating in the target market, but also exceed those of its competitors. Mere competence does not constitute a competitive advantage. The best-performing company will be the one that can generate the greatest customer value and sustain it over time. An environmental threat is a challenge posed by an unfavorable external trend or development that would lead, in the absence of defensive marketing action, to deterioration in sales or profit. Threats should be classified according to seriousness and probability of occurrence. Minor threats can be ignored; somewhat more serious threats must be carefully monitored; and major threats require the development of contingency plans that spell out changes the company can make if necessary. Internal Environment Analysis It is one thing to discern attractive opportunities and another to have the competencies to succeed in these opportunities. Thus, each business needs to periodically evaluate its internal strengths and weaknesses in marketing, financial, manufacturing, and organizational competencies. Clearly, the business does not have to correct all of its weaknesses, nor should it gloat about all of its strengths. The big question is whether the business should limit itself to those opportunities in which it possesses the required strengths or consider better opportunities to acquire or develop certain strengths. Sometimes a business does poorly because its departments do not work together well as a team. It is therefore critically important to assess interdepartmental working relationships as part of the internal environmental audit. Honeywell, for example, asks each department to annually rate its own strengths and weaknesses and those of the other departments with which it interacts. The notion is that each department is a “supplier” to some departments and a “customer” of other departments. If one department has weaknesses that hurt its “internal customers,” Honeywell wants to correct them. Goal Formulation Once the company has performed a SWOT analysis of the internal and external environments, it can proceed to develop specific goals for the planning period in a process called goal formulation. Managers use the term goals to describe objectives that are specific with respect to magnitude and time. Turning objectives into measurable goals facilitates management planning, implementation, and control. To be effective, goals must (1) be arranged hierarchically to guide the businesses in moving from broad to specific objectives for departments and individuals; (2) be stated quantitatively whenever possible; (3) be realistic; and (4) be consistent. Other important trade-offs in setting goals include: balancing short-term profit versus long-term growth; balancing deep penetration of existing markets with development of new markets; balancing profit goals versus nonprofit goals; and balancing high growth versus low risk. Each choice in this set of goal trade-offs calls for a different marketing strategy. Strategy Formulation Goals indicate what a business unit wants to achieve; strategy describes the game plan for achieving those goals. Every business strategy consists of a marketing strategy plus a compatible technology strategy and sourcing strategy. Although many types of marketing strategies are available, Michael Porter has condensed them into three generic types that provide a good starting point for strategic thinking: overall cost leadership, differentiation, or focus.12 ➤ Overall cost leadership: Here the business works to achieve the lowest production and distribution costs so that it can price lower than competitors and win more market
Slide 31: 48 CHAPTER 3 WINNING MARKETS THROUGH STRATEGIC PLANNING, IMPLEMENTATION, AND CONTROL share. Firms pursuing this strategy must be good at engineering, purchasing, manufacturing, and physical distribution; they need less skill in marketing. Texas Instruments uses this strategy. The problem is that rivals may emerge with still lower costs, hurting a firm that has rested its whole future on cost leadership. ➤ Differentiation: Here the business concentrates on achieving superior performance in an important customer benefit area, such as being the leader in service, quality, style, or technology—but not leading in all of these things. Intel, for instance, differentiates itself through leadership in technology, coming out with new microprocessors at breakneck speed. Focus: Here the business focuses on one or more narrow market segments, getting to know these segments intimately and pursuing either cost leadership or differentiation within the target segment. Airwalk shoes, for instance, came to fame by focusing on the very narrow extreme-sports segment. ➤ Firms that do not pursue a clear strategy—“middle-of-the-roaders”—do the worst. International Harvester fell upon hard times because it did not stand out as lowest in cost, highest in perceived value, or best in serving some market segment. Middle-of-the-roaders try to be good on all strategic dimensions, but because strategic dimensions require different and often inconsistent ways of organizing the firm, these firms end up being not particularly excellent at anything. Strategy formulation in the age of the Internet is particularly challenging. The chemical company Solutia, a Monsanto spinoff, copes by creating four different, possible short-term scenarios for each strategy. This allows the firm to act quickly when it sees a scenario unfolding. Sun Microsystems holds a weekly meeting with the firm’s top decision makers to brainstorm strategies for handling new threats. By revisiting strategic plans frequently, both companies are able to stay ahead of environmental changes.13 Program Formulation Once the business unit has developed its principal strategies, it must work out detailed supporting programs. Thus, if the business has decided to attain technological leadership, it must plan programs to strengthen its R&D department, gather technological intelligence, develop leading-edge products, train the technical sales force, and develop ads to communicate its technological leadership. After these marketing programs have been tentatively formulated, the marketing people must estimate their costs. Questions arise: Is participating in a particular trade show worth it? Will a specific sales contest pay for itself? Will hiring another salesperson contribute to the bottom line? Activity-based cost (ABC) accounting should be applied to each marketing program to determine whether it is likely to produce sufficient results to justify the cost.14 Implementation A clear strategy and well-thought-out supporting programs may be useless if the firm fails to implement them carefully. Indeed, strategy is only one of seven elements, according to McKinsey & Company, that the best-managed companies exhibit.15 In the McKinsey 7-S framework for business success, strategy, structure, and systems are considered the “hardware” of success, and style (how employees think and behave), skills (to carry out the strategy), staff (able people who are properly trained and assigned), and shared values (values that guide employees’ actions) are the “software.” When these software elements are present, companies are usually more successful at strategy implementation.16 Implementation is vital to effective management of the marketing process, as discussed later in this chapter.
Slide 32: The Marketing Process 49 Feedback and Control As it implements its strategy, the firm needs to track the results and monitor new developments in the internal and external environments. Some environments are fairly stable from year to year. Other environments evolve slowly in a fairly predictable way. Still other environments change rapidly in significant and unpredictable ways. Nonetheless, the company can count on one thing: The marketplace will change. And when it does, the company will need to review and revise its implementation, programs, strategies, or even objectives. A company’s strategic fit with the environment will inevitably erode because the market environment changes faster than the company’s 7-Ss. Thus a company might remain efficient while it loses effectiveness. Peter Drucker pointed out that it is more important to “do the right thing” (effectiveness) than “to do things right” (efficiency). The most successful companies excel at both. Once an organization fails to respond to a changed environment, it has difficulty recapturing its lost position. This happened to the once-unassailable Motorola when it was slow to respond to the new digital technology used by Nokia and others, and kept rolling out analog phones.17 Similarly, Barnes & Noble did not immediately recognize the threat posed by Amazon.com’s Internet-based book retailing model; then, as a latecomer to e-commerce, it had more of a struggle establishing itself. Clearly, the key to organizational health is the firm’s willingness to examine the changing environment and to adopt appropriate new goals and behaviors. High-performance organizations continuously monitor the environment and use flexible strategic planning to maintain a viable fit with the evolving environment. THE MARKETING PROCESS Planning at the corporate, division, and business levels is an integral part of planning for the marketing process. To understand that process fully, we must first look at how a company defines its business. The task of any business is to deliver value to the market at a profit. There are at least two views of the value-delivery process.18 The traditional view is that the firm makes something and then sells it (Figure 1-8). In this view, marketing takes place in the second half of the value-delivery process. The traditional view assumes that the company knows what to make and that the market will buy enough units to produce profits for the company. Companies that subscribe to this traditional view have the best chance of succeeding in economies marked by goods shortages in which consumers are not fussy about quality, features, or style. But the traditional view of the business process will not work in more competitive economies in which people face abundant choices. The “mass market” is actually splintering into numerous micromarkets, each with its own wants, perceptions, preferences, and buying criteria. The smart competitor therefore must design the offer for well-defined target markets. The Value-Delivery Sequence This belief is at the core of the new view of business processes, which places marketing at the beginning of the planning process. Instead of emphasizing making and selling, companies see themselves involved in a three-phase value creation and delivery sequence (Figure 1-8). The first phase, choosing the value, represents the strategic “homework” that marketing must do before any product exists. The marketing staff must segment the market, select the appropriate market target, and develop the offer’s value position-
Slide 33: 50 CHAPTER 3 WINNING MARKETS THROUGH STRATEGIC PLANNING, IMPLEMENTATION, AND CONTROL (a) Traditional physical process sequence Make the Product Design product Procure Make Price Sell Sell the Product Advertise/ promote Distribute Service (b) Value creation and delivery sequence Choose the Value Customer segmentation Market selection/ focus Value positioning Product development Provide the Value Service development Pricing Sourcing Distributing Making Servicing Tactical marketing Communicate the Value Sales force Sales promotion Advertising Strategic marketing Figure 1-8 Two Views of the Value-Delivery Process ing. In the second phase, providing the value, marketers detail the product’s specifications and services, set a target price, then make and distribute the product. Developing specific product features, prices, and distribution occurs at this stage and is part of tactical marketing. The task in the third phase is communicating the value. Here, further tactical marketing occurs in utilizing the sales force, sales promotion, advertising, and other promotional tools to inform the market about the product. Thus, as Figure 1-8 shows, the marketing process actually begins before there is a product and continues while it is being developed and after it becomes available. Steps in the Marketing Process The marketing process consists of analyzing market opportunities, researching and selecting target markets, designing marketing strategies, planning marketing programs, and organizing, implementing, and controlling the marketing effort. The four steps in the marketing process are: 1. Analyzing market opportunities. The marketer’s initial task is to identify potential longrun opportunities given the company’s market experience and core competencies. To evaluate its various opportunities, assess buyer wants and needs, and gauge market size, the firm needs a marketing research and information system. Next, the firm studies consumer markets or business markets to find out about buying behavior, perceptions, wants, and needs. Smart firms also pay close attention to competitors and look for major segments within each market that they can profitably serve. Developing marketing strategies. In this step, the marketer prepares a positioning strategy for each new and existing product’s progress through the life cycle, makes decisions about product lines and branding, and designs and markets its services. Planning marketing programs. To transform marketing strategy into marketing programs, marketing managers must make basic decisions on marketing expenditures, marketing mix, and marketing allocation. The first decision is about the level of marketing expenditures needed to achieve the firm’s marketing objectives. The second 2. 3.
Slide 34: The Marketing Process 51 Demographic/ economic environment Marketing Intermediaries Technological/ physical environment Mark etin g sys i t ion mat for n em Product Mark etin sys t Suppliers M ar Place em o ntr ol gc Promotion o ti n g e n M a r k e ple m and im Political/ legal environment Competitors rg tat a n iz a io n ti o n syste m Social/ cultural environment Target Price customers ning lan gp m e Publics Figure 1-9 Factors Influencing Company Marketing Strategy decision is how to divide the total marketing budget among the various tools in the marketing mix: product, price, place, and promotion.19 And the third decision is how to allocate the marketing budget to the various products, channels, promotion media, and sales areas. 4. Managing the marketing effort. In this step (discussed later in this chapter), marketers organize the firm’s marketing resources to implement and control the marketing plan. Because of surprises and disappointments as marketing plans are implemented, the company also needs feedback and control. Figure 1-9 presents a grand summary of the marketing process and the factors that shape the company’s marketing strategy. The Nature and Contents of a Marketing Plan The marketing plan created for each product line or brand is one of the most important outputs of planning for the marketing process. A typical marketing plan has eight sections: ➤ ➤ Executive summary and table of contents: This brief summary outlines the plan’s main goals and recommendations; it is followed by a table of contents. Current marketing situation: This section presents relevant background data on sales, costs, profits, the market, competitors, distribution, and the macroenvironment, drawn from a fact book maintained by the product manager. Opportunity and issue analysis: This section identifies the major opportunities and threats, strengths and weaknesses, and issues facing the product line or brand. Objectives: This section spells out the financial and marketing objectives to be achieved. in k e t y st s ➤ ➤
Slide 35: 52 CHAPTER 3 WINNING MARKETS THROUGH STRATEGIC PLANNING, IMPLEMENTATION, AND CONTROL ➤ ➤ Marketing strategy: This section explains the broad marketing strategy that will be implemented to accomplish the plan’s objectives. Action programs: This section outlines the broad marketing programs for achieving the business objectives. Each marketing strategy element must be elaborated to answer these questions: What will be done? When will it be done? Who will do it? How much will it cost? Projected profit-and-loss statement: Action plans allow the product manager to build a supporting budget with forecasted sales volume (units and average price), costs (production, physical distribution, and marketing), and projected profit. Once approved, the budget is the basis for developing plans and schedules for material procurement, production scheduling, employee recruitment, and marketing operations. Controls: This last section outlines the controls for monitoring the plan. Typically, the goals and budget are spelled out for each month or quarter so senior management can review the results each period. Sometimes contingency plans for handling specific adverse developments are included. ➤ ➤ No two companies handle marketing planning and marketing plan content exactly the same way. Most marketing plans cover one year and vary in length; some firms take their plans very seriously, while others use them as only a rough guide to action. The most frequently cited shortcomings of marketing plans, according to marketing executives, are lack of realism, insufficient competitive analysis, and a short-run focus. MANAGING THE MARKETING PROCESS In addition to updating their marketing plans, companies often need to restructure business and marketing practices in response to major environmental changes such as globalization, deregulation, computer and telecommunications advances, and market fragmentation. Against this dynamic backdrop, the role of marketing in the organization must change as well. Now that the enterprise is fully networked, every functional area can interact directly with customers. This means that marketing no longer has sole ownership of customer interactions; rather, marketing needs to integrate all the customer-facing processes so that customers see a single face and hear a single voice when they interact with the firm. To accomplish this requires careful structuring of the marketing organization. Organization of the Marketing Department Modern marketing departments take numerous forms. The marketing department may be organized according to function, geographic area, products, or customer markets. Global organization is another consideration for firms that market goods or services in other countries. Functional Organization The most common form of marketing organization consists of functional specialists (such as the sales manager and marketing research manager) who report to a marketing vice president, who coordinates their activities. The main advantage of a functional marketing organization is its administrative simplicity. However, this form loses effectiveness as products and markets increase. First, a functional organization often leads to inadequate planning for specific products and markets because products that are not favored by anyone are neglected. Second, each functional group competes
Slide 36: Managing The Marketing Process 53 with the other functions for budget and status. Therefore, the marketing vice president constantly has to weigh the claims of competing functional specialists and faces a difficult coordination problem. Geographic Organization A company selling in a national market often organizes its sales force (and sometimes other functions, including marketing) along geographic lines. The national sales manager may supervise four regional sales managers, who each supervise six zone managers, who in turn supervise eight district sales managers, who supervise 10 sales people. Several companies are now adding area market specialists (regional or local marketing managers) to support the sales efforts in high-volume, distinctive markets. For example, McDonald’s now spends about 50 percent of its advertising budget regionally, and Anheuser-Bush has subdivided its regional markets into ethnic and demographic segments, with different ad campaigns for each. Product- or Brand-Management Organization Companies that produce a variety of products and brands often establish a product(or brand-) management organization as another layer of management within the marketing function. A product manager supervises product category managers, who in turn supervise specific product and brand managers. A product-management organization makes sense if the firm’s products are quite different, or if the sheer number of products is beyond the ability of a functional marketing organization to handle. In both consumer and industrial markets, product and brand managers are responsible for product planning and strategy; preparing annual marketing plans and sales forecasts; working with advertising and merchandising agencies to create programs and campaigns; stimulating support among sales reps and distributors; ongoing research into product performance, customer and dealer attitudes, opportunities and threats; and initiating product improvements to meet changing market needs. The product-management organization allows the product manager to concentrate on developing a cost-effective marketing mix for each product, to react more quickly to marketplace changes, and to watch over smaller brands. On the other hand, it can lead to conflict and frustration when product managers are not given enough authority to carry out their responsibilities effectively. In addition, product managers become experts in their product but rarely achieve functional expertise. And appointing product managers and associate product managers for even minor products can bloat payroll costs. Finally, brand managers normally move up in a few years to another brand or transfer to another company, leading to short-term thinking that plays havoc with long-term brand building. To counter these disadvantages, some companies have switched from product managers to product teams. For example, Hallmark uses a triangular marketing team consisting of a market manager (the leader), a marketing manager, and a distribution manager; 3M uses a horizontal product team consisting of a team leader and representatives from sales, marketing, laboratory, engineering, accounting, and marketing research. Another alternative is to introduce category management, in which a company focuses on product categories to manage its brands. Kraft has changed from a classic brand-management structure, in which each brand competed for resources and market share, to a category-based structure in which category business directors (or “product integrators”) lead cross-functional teams of representatives from marketing, R&D, consumer promotion, and finance. These category teams work with process teams dedicated to each product category and with customer teams dedicated to each major customer.20 Still, category
Slide 37: 54 CHAPTER 3 WINNING MARKETS THROUGH STRATEGIC PLANNING, IMPLEMENTATION, AND CONTROL management is essentially product-driven, which is why Colgate recently moved from brand management (Colgate toothpaste) to category management (toothpaste category) to a new stage called “customer-need management” (mouth care). This last step finally focuses the organization on a basic customer need.21 Market-Management Organization Many companies sell their products to a diverse set of markets; Canon, for instance, sells fax machines to consumer, business, and government markets. When customers fall into different user groups with distinct buying preferences and practices, a market management organization is desirable. A markets manager supervises several market managers (also called market-development managers, market specialists, or industry specialists). The market managers draw upon functional services as needed or may even have functional specialists reporting to them. Market managers are staff (not line) people, with duties similar to those of product managers. This system has many of the same advantages and disadvantages of product management systems. Its strongest advantage is that the marketing activity is organized to meet the needs of distinct customer groups. This is why Xerox converted from geographic selling to selling by industry, as did IBM, which recently reorganized its employees into 14 customer-focused divisions. In fact, several studies have confirmed the value of market-centered organization: Slater and Narver found a substantial positive effect of market orientation on both commodity and noncommodity businesses.22 Product-Management/Market-Management Organization Companies that produce many products that flow into many markets tend to adopt a matrix organization. Consider DuPont, a pioneer in developing the matrix structure. Its textile fibers department consists of separate product managers for rayon and other fibers plus separate market managers for menswear and other markets. The product managers plan the sales and profits for their respective fibers, each seeking to expand the use of his or her fiber; the market managers seek to meet their market’s needs rather than push a particular fiber. Ultimately, the sales forecasts from the market managers and the product managers should add to the same grand total. A matrix organization would seem desirable in a multiproduct, multimarket company. However, this system is costly and often creates conflicts as well as questions about authority and responsibility. By the early 1980s, a number of companies had abandoned matrix management. But matrix management has resurfaced and is again flourishing in the form of “business teams” staffed with full-time specialists reporting to one team boss. The major difference is that companies today provide the right context in which a matrix can thrive—an emphasis on flat, lean team organizations focused around business processes that cut horizontally across functions.23 Corporate-Divisional Organization As multiproduct-multimarket companies grow, they often convert their larger product or market groups into separate divisions with their own departments and services. This raises the question of what marketing services and activities should be retained at corporate headquarters. Some corporations leave marketing to each division; some have a small corporate marketing staff; and some prefer to maintain a strong corporate marketing staff. The potential contribution of a corporate marketing staff varies in different stages of the company’s evolution. Most companies begin with weak marketing in their divisions and often establish a corporate staff to bring stronger marketing into the divisions through training and other services. Some members of corporate marketing
Slide 38: Managing The Marketing Process 55 might be transferred to head divisional marketing departments. As divisions become strong in their marketing, corporate marketing has less to offer them. Some companies then decide corporate marketing has done its job and proceed to eliminate the department.24 Global Organization Companies that market internationally can organize in three ways. Those just going global may start by establishing an export department with a sales manager and a few assistants (and limited marketing services). As they go after global business more aggressively, they can create an international division with functional specialists (including marketing) and operating units structured geographically, according to product, or as international subsidiaries. Finally, companies that become truly global organizations have top corporate management and staff plan worldwide operations, marketing policies, financial flows, and logistical systems. In these organizations, the global operating units report directly to top management, not to the head of an international division. Building a Companywide Marketing Orientation Many companies are beginning to realize that their organizations are not really marketand customer-driven—they are product or sales driven. Companies such as Baxter, General Motors, and Shell are working hard to reorganize themselves into true marketdriven companies. The task is not easy: it requires changes in job and department definitions, responsibilities, incentives, and relationships. To create a market- and customer-focused company, the CEO must: convince senior managers of the need to be more customer-focused; appoint a senior marketing officer and marketing task force; get outside help and guidance; change reward measurement and system to encourage actions that build long-term customer satisfaction; hire strong marketing talent; develop strong in-house marketing training programs; install a modern marketing planning system; establish an annual marketing excellence recognition program; consider restructuring as a market-centered organization; and shift from a department focus to a process-outcome focus. DuPont successfully made the transition from an inward-looking to an outwardlooking orientation when it began building a “marketing community” by reorganizing divisions along market lines and holding marketing management training seminars for thousands of managers and employees. The company also established a marketing excellence recognition program and honored employees from around the world who had developed innovative marketing strategies and service improvements.25 It takes a great deal of planning and patience to get managers to accept customers as the foundation and future of the business—but it can be done, as the DuPont example shows. Marketing Implementation Organization is one factor contributing to effective marketing implementation, the process that turns marketing plans into action assignments and ensures that such assignments are executed in a manner that accomplishes the plan’s stated objectives.26 This part of the marketing process is critical, because a brilliant strategic marketing plan counts for little if it is not implemented properly. Whereas strategy addresses the what and why of marketing activities, implementation addresses the who, where, when, and how. Strategy and implementation are closely related in that one layer of strategy implies certain tactical implementation assignments at a lower level. For example, top management’s strategic decision to “harvest” a product must be translated into specific actions and assignments.
Slide 39: 56 CHAPTER 3 WINNING MARKETS THROUGH STRATEGIC PLANNING, IMPLEMENTATION, AND CONTROL Bonoma identified four sets of skills for implementing marketing programs: (1) diagnostic skills (the ability to determine what went wrong); (2) identification of company level (the ability to discern whether problems occurred in the marketing function, the marketing program, or the marketing policy); (3) implementation skills (the ability to budget resources, organize effectively, motivate others); and (4) evaluation skills (the ability to evaluate results).27 These skills are as vital for nonprofits as they are for businesses, as the Alvin Ailey Dance Theater has discovered. Like many nonprofit cultural organizations, the company founded by Alvin Ailey in 1958 always seemed to be operating in the red—despite its ability to attract full houses—because of the high costs of mounting a production. But Judith Jameson, the principal dancer who succeeded Ailey as director after his death, has been able to keep the company in the black, thanks largely to her skill at motivating others to carry out marketing efforts. The nonprofit implements its marketing plan through a high-powered board of directors and a group of businesses that want to associate with the Ailey company for their own marketing purposes. For example, Healthsouth Corporation provides free physical therapy to the dancers and benefits from the association when marketing its sports medicine clinics. With an audience that is almost half African American and 43 percent of which is between the ages of 19 and 39, Ailey provides access to an important market for its corporate partners, earning their enthusiastic support.28 Evaluating and Controlling the Marketing Process To deal with the many surprises that occur during the implementation of marketing plans, the marketing department has to monitor and control marketing activities continuously. Table 1.1 lists four types of marketing control needed by companies: annualplan control, profitability control, efficiency control, and strategic control. Annual-Plan Control The purpose of annual-plan control is to ensure that the company achieves the sales, profits, and other goals established in its annual plan. The heart of annual-plan control is the four-step management by objectives process in which management (1) sets monthly or quarterly goals; (2) monitors the company’s marketplace performance; (3) determines the causes of serious performance deviations; and (4) takes corrective action to close the gaps between goals and performance. This control model applies to all levels of the organization. Top management sets sales and profit goals for the year that are elaborated into specific goals for each lower level. In turn, each product manager commits to attaining specified levels of sales and costs; each regional district and sales manager and each sales representative also commits to specific goals. Each period, top management reviews and interprets performance results at all levels, using these five tools: ➤ Sales analysis. Sales analysis consists of measuring and evaluating actual sales in relation to goals, using two specific tools. Sales-variance analysis measures the relative contribution of different factors to a gap in sales performance. Microsales analysis looks at specific products, territories, and other elements that failed to produce expected sales. The point of these analyses is to determine what factors (pricing, lower volume, specific territories, etc.) contributed to a failure to meet sales goals. Market-share analysis. Company sales do not reveal how well the company is performing relative to competitors. To do this, management needs to track its market share. Overall market share is the company’s sales expressed as a percentage ➤
Slide 40: Managing The Marketing Process 57 Table 1.1 Types of Marketing Control Type of Control I. Annual-plan control Prime Responsibility Top management Middle management Purpose of Control To examine whether the planned results are being achieved ■ ■ Approaches Sales analysis Market-share analysis ■ Marketing expenseto-sales analysis ■ Financial analysis ■ Market-based scorecard analysis Profitability by: product ■ territory ■ customer ■ segment ■ trade channel ■ order size ■ II. Profitability control Marketing controller To examine where the company is making and losing money III. Efficiency control Line and staff management Marketing controller Top management Marketing auditor To evaluate and improve the spending efficiency and impact of marketing expenditures To examine whether the company is pursuing its best opportunities in markets, products, and channels Efficiency of: ■ sales force ■ advertising ■ sales promotion ■ distribution Marketiingeffectiveness review ■ Marketing audit ■ Marketing excellence review ■ Company ethical and social responsibility review ■ IV. Strategic control of total market sales. Served market share is its sales expressed as a percentage of the total sales to its served market—all of the buyers who are able and willing to buy the product. Relative market share can be expressed as market share in relation to the largest competitor; a rise in relative market share means a company is gaining on its leading competitor. A useful way to analyze market-share movements is in terms of customer penetration, customer loyalty, customer selectivity, and price selectivity. ➤ Marketing expense-to-sales analysis. This is a key ratio because it allows management to be sure that the company is not overspending to achieve sales goals. Minor fluctuations in the expense-to-sales ratio can be ignored, but major fluctuations are cause for concern.
Slide 41: 58 CHAPTER 3 WINNING MARKETS THROUGH STRATEGIC PLANNING, IMPLEMENTATION, AND CONTROL ➤ Financial analysis. Management uses financial analysis to identify the factors that affect the company’s rate of return on net worth.29 The main factors are shown in Figure 1-10, along with illustrative numbers for a large chain-store retailer. To improve its return on net worth, the company must increase its ratio of net profits to its assets or increase the ratio of its assets to its net worth. The company should analyze the composition of its assets (i.e., cash, accounts receivable, inventory, and plant and equipment) and see if it can improve its asset management.30 Market-based scorecard analysis. Companies should also prepare two market-based scorecards that reflect performance and provide possible early warning signals of problems. A customer-performance scorecard records how well the company is doing on such customer-based measures as new customers, dissatisfied customers, lost customers, target market awareness, target market preference, relative product quality, and relative service quality. A stakeholder-performance scorecard tracks the satisfaction of constituencies who have a critical interest in and impact on the company’s performance: employees, suppliers, banks, distributors, retailers, and stockholders.31 ➤ Profitability Control Successful companies also measure the profitability of their products, territories, customer groups, segments, trade channels, and order sizes. This information helps management determine whether any products or marketing activities should be expanded, reduced, or eliminated. The first step in marketing-profitability analysis is to identify the functional expenses (such as advertising and delivery) incurred for each activity. Next, the firm measures how much functional expense was associated with selling through each type of channel. Third, the company prepares a profit-and-loss statement for each type of channel. In general, marketing-profitability analysis indicates the relative profitability of different channels, products, territories, or other marketing entities. However, it does not prove that the best course of action is to drop the unprofitable marketing entities, Figure 1-10 Financial Model of Return on Net Worth Profit margin 1.5% Return on assets Net profits ––––––– Net sales Asset turnover 3.2 Net sales ––––––– Total assets Net profits ––––––– Total assets Total assets ––––––– Net worth Net profits ––––––– Net worth Financial leverage Rate of return on net worth = 4.8% x 2.6 = 12.5%
Slide 42: Managing The Marketing Process 59 nor does it capture the likely profit improvement if these marginal marketing entities are dropped. Therefore, the company must examine its alternatives closely before taking corrective action. Efficiency Control Suppose a profitability analysis reveals poor profits for certain products, territories, or markets. This is when management must ask whether there are more efficient ways to manage the sales force, advertising, sales promotion, and distribution in connection with these marketing entities. Some companies have established a marketing controller position to work on such issues and improve marketing efficiency. Marketing controllers work out of the controller’s office but specialize in the marketing side of the business. At companies such as General Foods, DuPont, and Johnson & Johnson, they perform a sophisticated financial analysis of marketing expenditures and results, analyzing adherence to profit plans, helping prepare brand managers’ budgets, measuring the efficiency of promotions, analyzing media production costs, evaluating customer and geographic profitability, and educating marketing personnel on the financial implications of marketing decisions.32 Strategic Control From time to time, companies need to undertake a critical review of overall marketing goals and effectiveness. Each company should periodically reassess its strategic approach to the marketplace with marketing-effectiveness reviews and marketing audits. ➤ The marketing-effectiveness review. Marketing effectiveness is reflected in the degree to which a company or division exhibits the five major attributes of a marketing orientation: customer philosophy (serving customers’ needs and wants), integrated marketing organization (integrating marketing with other key departments), adequate marketing information (conducting timely, appropriate marketing research), strategic orientation (developing formal marketing plans and strategies), and operational efficiency (using marketing resources effectively and flexibly). Unfortunately, most companies and divisions score in the fair-to-good range on measures of marketing effectiveness.33 The marketing audit. Companies that discover marketing weaknesses should undertake a marketing audit, a comprehensive, systematic, independent, and periodic examination of a company’s (or SBU’s) marketing environment, objectives, strategies, and activities to identify problem areas and opportunities and recommend a plan of action for improving the company’s marketing performance.34 The marketing audit examines six major marketing components: (1) the macroenvironment and task environment, (2) marketing strategy, (3) marketing organization, (4) marketing systems, (5) marketing productivity, and (6) marketing function (the 4 Ps). ➤ Highly successful companies also perform marketing excellence reviews and ethicalsocial responsibility reviews to gain an outside-in perspective on their marketing activities. ➤ The marketing excellence review. This best-practices excellence review rates a firm’s performance in relation to the best marketing and business practices of highperforming businesses. The resulting profile exposes weaknesses and strengths and highlights where the company might change to become a truly outstanding player in the marketplace. The ethical and social responsibility review. In addition, companies need to evaluate whether they are truly practicing ethical and socially responsible marketing. Business success and continually satisfying customers and other stakeholders are ➤
Slide 43: 60 CHAPTER 3 WINNING MARKETS THROUGH STRATEGIC PLANNING, IMPLEMENTATION, AND CONTROL intimately tied to adoption and implementation of high standards of business and marketing conduct. The most admired companies abide by a code of serving people’s interests, not only their own. Thus, the ethical and social responsibility review allows management to determine how the firm is grappling with ethical issues and exhibiting a “social conscience” in its business dealings. Effective control of the marketing process ultimately depends on accurate, timely, and complete information about markets, demand, and the marketing environment—the subject of the next chapter. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Market-oriented strategic planning is the managerial process of developing and maintaining a viable fit among the organization’s objectives, skills, and resources and its changing market opportunities. The aim of strategic planning is to shape the company’s businesses and products to yield the targeted profits and growth. Strategic planning takes place at four levels: corporate, division, business unit, and product. The corporate strategy establishes the framework within which the divisions and business units prepare their strategic plans. Setting a corporate strategy entails defining the corporate mission; establishing strategic business units (SBUs), assigning resources to each SBU based on its market attractiveness and business strength, and planning new businesses and downsizing older businesses. Strategic planning for SBUs entails defining the business mission, analyzing external opportunities and threats, analyzing internal strengths and weaknesses, formulating goals, formulating strategy, formulating programs, implementing the programs, and gathering feedback and exercising control. The marketing process consists of four steps: analyzing market opportunities, developing marketing strategies, planning marketing programs, and managing marketing effort. Each product level within a business unit must develop a marketing plan for achieving its goals. The marketing plan is one of the most important outputs of the marketing process. It should contain an executive summary and table of contents, an overview of the marketing situation, an analysis of opportunities and threats, a summary of financial and marketing objectives, an overview of marketing strategy, a description of action programs, a projected profit-and-loss statement, and a summary of the controls for monitoring the plan’s progress. In managing the marketing process, companies can organize the marketing department according to function, geographic area, products, or customer markets. Companies that market in other countries can create an export department, an international division, or a global organization. Marketing implementation is the process that turns marketing plans into action assignments and ensures that such assignments are executed in a manner that accomplishes the plan’s stated objectives. To manage the marketing process, companies can apply four types of control: annual-plan control, profitability control, efficiency control, and strategic control. NOTES 1. See “The New Breed of Strategic Planning,” Business Week, September 7, 1984, pp. 62–68. 2. See Peter Drucker, Management: Tasks, Responsibilities and Practices (New York: Harper & Row, 1973), ch. 7. 3. See “The Hollow Corporation,” Business Week, March 3, 1986, pp. 57–59. Also see William H. Davidow and Michael S. Malone, The Virtual Corporation (New York: HarperBusiness, 1992).
Slide 44: Notes 4. For more discussion, see Laura Nash, “Mission Statements—Mirrors and Windows,” Harvard Business Review, March–April 1988, pp. 155–56. 5. For more on Kodak’s imaging strategy, see Irene M. Kunii, “Fuji: Beyond Film,” Business Week, November 22, 1999, pp. 132–38. 6. Derek Abell, Defining the Business: The Starting Point of Strategic Planning (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1980), ch. 3. 7. Theodore Levitt, “Marketing Myopia,” Harvard Business Review, July–August 1960, pp. 45–56. 8. See Roger A. Kerin, Vijay Mahajan, and P. Rajan Varadarajan, Contemporary Perspectives on Strategic Planning (Boston: Allyn & Bacon, 1990). 9. A hard decision must be made between harvesting and divesting a business. Harvesting a business will strip it of its long-run value, in which case it will be difficult to find a buyer. Divesting, on the other hand, is facilitated by maintaining a business in a fit condition in order to attract a buyer. 10. For a contrary view, however, see J. Scott Armstrong and Roderick J. Brodie, “Effects of Portfolio Planning Methods on Decision Making: Experimental Results,” International Journal of Research in Marketing (1994), pp. 73–84. 11. The same matrix can be expanded into nine cells by adding modified products and modified markets. See S. J. Johnson and Conrad Jones, “How to Organize for New Products,” Harvard Business Review, May–June 1957, pp. 49–62. 12. See Michael E. Porter, Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors (New York: Free Press, 1980), ch. 2. 13. Marcia Stepanek, “How Fast Is Net Fast?” Business Week, November 1, 1999, pp. EB52–EB54. 14. See Robin Cooper and Robert S. Kaplan, “Profit Priorities from Activity-Based Costing,” Harvard Business Review, May–June 1991, pp. 130–35. 15. See Thomas J. Peters and Robert H. Waterman, Jr., In Search of Excellence: Lessons from America’s Best-Run Companies (New York: Harper & Row, 1982), pp. 9–12. The same framework is used in Richard Tanner Pascale and Anthony G. Athos, The Art of Japanese Management: Applications for American Executives (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1981). 16. See Terrence E. Deal and Allan A. Kennedy, Corporate Cultures: The Rites and Rituals of Corporate Life (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1982); “Corporate Culture,” Business Week, October 27, 1980, pp. 148–60; Stanley M. Davis, Managing Corporate Culture (Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1984); and John P. Kotter and James L. Heskett, Corporate Culture and Performance (New York: Free Press, 1992). 17. Stephen Baker, “The Future Goes Cellular,” Business Week, November 8, 1999, p. 74. 18. Michael J. Lanning and Edward G. Michaels, “Business Is a Value Delivery System,” McKinsey Staff Paper, no. 41, June 1988 (McKinsey & Co., Inc.). 19. Perrault and McCarthy, Basic Marketing: A Global Managerial Approach, 13th ed. (Burr Ridge, IL: 1996). 20. Michael George, Anthony Freeling, and David Court, “Reinventing the Marketing Organization,” The McKinsey Quarterly, no. 4 (1994): 43–62. 21. For further reading, see Robert Dewar and Don Shultz, “The Product Manager, an Idea Whose Time Has Gone,” Marketing Communications, May 1998, pp. 28–35; “The Marketing Revolution at Procter and Gamble,” Business Week, July 25, 1988, pp. 72–76; Kevin T. Higgins, “Category Management: New Tools Changing Life for Manufacturers, Retailers,” Marketing News, September 25, 1989, pp. 2, 19; George S. Low and Ronald A. Fullerton, “Brands, Brand Management, and the Brand Manager System: A Critical Historical Evaluation,” Journal of Marketing Research, May 1994, pp. 173–90; and Michael J. Zanor, “The Profit Benefits of Category Management,” Journal of Marketing Research, May 1994, pp. 202–13. 22. Stanley F. Slater and John C. Narver, “Market Orientation, Customer Value, and Superior Performance,” Business Horizons, March–April 1994, pp. 22–28. See also Frederick E. 61
Slide 45: 62 CHAPTER 3 WINNING MARKETS THROUGH STRATEGIC PLANNING, IMPLEMENTATION, AND CONTROL Webster, Market-Driven Management (New York: John Wiley, 1994); John C. Narver and Stanley F. Slater, “The Effect of a Market Orientation on Business Profitability, “Journal of Marketing, October 1990, pp. 20–35; Bernard Jaworski and Ajay K. Kohli, “Market Orientation: Antecedents and Consequences,” Journal of Marketing, July 1993, pp. 53–70; and Rohit Deshpande and John U. Farley, “Measuring Market Orientation. “Journal of Market-Focused Management 2 (1998): 213–32. Richard E. Anderson, “Matrix Redux,” Business Horizons, November–December 1994, pp. 6–10. For further reading on marketing organization, see Nigel Piercy, Marketing Organization: An Analysis of Information Processing, Power and Politics (London: George Allen & Unwin, 1985); Robert W. Ruekert, Orville C. Walker, and Kenneth J. Roering, “The Organization of Marketing Activities: A Contingency Theory of Structure and Performance,” Journal of Marketing, Winter 1995, pp. 13–25; Tyzoon T, Tyebjee, Albert V. Bruno, and Shelly H. McIntyre, “Growing Ventures Can Anticipate Marketing Stages,” Harvard Business Review, January–February 1983, pp. 2–4; and Andrew Pollak, “Revamping Said to be Set at Microsoft,” New York Times, February 9, 1999, p. C1. Edward E. Messikomer, “DuPont’s ‘Marketing Community,’ ” Business Marketing, October 1987, pp. 90–94. For an excellent account of how to convert a company into a marketdriven organization, see George Day, The Market-Driven Organization: Aligning Culture, Capabilities, and Configuration to the Market (New York: Free Press, 1989). For more on developing and implementing marketing plans, see H. W. Goetsch, Developing, Implementing, and Managing an Effective Marketing Plan (Chicago: American Marketing Association; Lincolnwood, IL: NTC Business Books, 1993). Thomas V. Bonoma, The Marketing Edge: Making Strategies Work (New York: Free Press, 1985). Much of this section is based on Bonoma’s work. Emily Denitto, “New Steps Bring Alvin Ailey into the Business of Art,” Crain’s New York Business, December, 1998, pp. 4, 33. Alternatively, companies need to focus on factors affecting shareholder value. The goal of marketing planning is to increase shareholder value, which is the present value of the future income stream created by the company’s present actions. Rate-of-return analysis usually focuses on only 1 year’s results. See Alfred Rapport, Creating Shareholder Value, rev. ed. (New York: Free Press, 1997). For additional reading on financial analysis, see Peter L. Mullins, Measuring Customer and Product Line Profitability (Washington, DC: Distribution Research and Education Foundation, 1984). See Robert S. Kaplan and David P. Norton, The Balanced Scorecard (Boston: Harvard Business School Press,1996). Sam R. Goodman, Increasing Corporate Profitability (New York: Ronald Press, 1982), ch. 1. Also see Bernard J. Jaworski, Vlasis Stathakopoulos, and H. Shanker Krishnan, “Control Combinations in Marketing: Conceptual Framework and Empirical Evidence,” Journal of Marketing, January 1993, pp. 57–69. For further discussion of this instrument, see Philip Kotler, “From Sales Obsession to Marketing Effectiveness,” Harvard Business Review, November–December 1977, pp. 67–75. See Philip Kotler, William Gregor, and William Rodgers, “The Marketing Audit Comes of Age,” Sloan Management Review, Winter 1989, pp. 49–62. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34.
Slide 46: Gathering Information and Measuring Market Demand We examine the following questions: tahW er ht s ne opm c f a modern aktig ormnf em?syt t a h W s e u i n o c d g r a m k - te gni ?hcraes woH nac r m k g ite no s c d suport emy hlp marketing mangers k erbt dcision? woH nac d me b erom -ca y l e t a r u c d s m n - e ro f ?de tsac ■ ■ ■ Marketing is becoming more of a battle based on information than one based on sales power. ■
Slide 47: T he marketing environment is changing at an accelerating rate. Given the following changes, the need for real-time market information is greater than at any time in the past: From local to national to global marketing: As companies expand their geographical market coverage, their managers need more information more quickly. From buyer needs to buyer wants: As incomes improve, buyers become more selective in their choice of goods. To predict buyers’ responses to different features, styles, and other attributes, sellers must turn to marketing research. From price to nonprice competition: As sellers increase their use of branding, product differentiation, advertising, and sales promotion, they require information on these marketing tools’ effectiveness. Fortunately, the exploding information requirements have given rise to impressive new information technologies: computers, microfilm, cable television, copy machines, fax machines, tape recorders, video recorders, videodisc players, CD-ROM drives, the Internet.1 Some firms have developed marketing information systems that provide company management with rapid and incredible detail about buyer wants, preferences, and behavior. For example, the Coca-Cola Company knows that we put 3.2 ice cubes in a glass, see 69 of its commercials every year, and prefer cans to pop out of vending machines at a temperature of 35 degrees. Kimberly-Clark, which makes Kleenex, has calculated that the average person blows his or her nose 256 times a year. Hoover learned that we spend about 35 minutes each week vacuuming, sucking up about 8 pounds of dust each year and using 6 bags to do so.2 Marketers also have extensive information about consumption patterns in other countries. On a per capita basis within Western Europe, for example, the Swiss consume the most chocolate, the Greeks eat the most cheese, the Irish drink the most tea, and the Austrians smoke the most cigarettes.3 Nevertheless, many business firms lack information sophistication. Many lack a marketing research department. Others have departments that limit work to routine forecasting, sales analysis, and occasional surveys. In addition, many managers complain about not knowing where critical information is located in the company; getting too much information that they can’t use and too little that they really need; getting important information too late; and doubting the information’s accuracy. In today’s information-based society, companies with superior information enjoy a competitive advantage. The company can choose its markets better, develop better offerings, and execute better marketing planning. T ■ HE COMPONENTS OF A MODERN MARKETING INFORMATION SYSTEM Every firm must organize a rich flow of information to its marketing managers. Competitive companies study their managers’ information needs and design marketing information systems (MIS) to meet these needs. A marketing information system (MIS) consists of people, equipment, and procedures to gather, sort, analyze, evaluate, and distribute needed, timely, and accurate information to marketing decision makers. 100 Analyzing Marketing Opportunities To carry out their analysis, planning, implementation, and control responsibilities, marketing managers need information about developments in the marketing environment. The role of the MIS is to assess the manager’s information needs, develop the needed information, and distribute that information in a timely fashion. The in-
Slide 48: formation is developed through internal company records, marketing intelligence activities, marketing research, and marketing decision support analysis. I NTERNAL RECORDS SYSTEM Marketing managers rely on internal reports on orders, sales, prices, costs, inventory levels, receivables, payables, and so on. By analyzing this information, they can spot important opportunities and problems. THE ORDER-TO-PAYMENT CYCLE The heart of the internal records system is the order-to-payment cycle. Sales representatives, dealers, and customers dispatch orders to the firm. The sales department prepares invoices and transmits copies to various departments. Out-of-stock items are back ordered. Shipped items are accompanied by shipping and billing documents that are sent to various departments. Today’s companies need to perform these steps quickly and accurately. Customers favor those firms that can promise timely delivery. Customers and sales representatives fax or e-mail their orders. Computerized warehouses fulfill these orders quickly. The billing department sends out invoices as quickly as possible. An increasing number of companies are using electronic data interchange (EDI) or intranets to improve the speed, accuracy, and efficiency of the order-to-payment cycle. Retail giant Wal-Mart tracks the stock levels of its products and its computers send automatic replenishment orders to its vendors.4 SALES INFORMATION SYSTEMS Marketing managers need up-to-the-minute reports on current sales. Armed with laptop computers, sales reps can access information about prospects and customers and provide immediate feedback and sales reports. An ad for SalesCTRL, a sales force automation software package, boasts, “Your salesperson in St. Louis knows what Customer Service in Chicago told their customer in Atlanta this morning. Sales managers can monitor everything in their territories and get current sales forecasts anytime.” Sales force automation (SFA) software has come a long way. Earlier versions mainly helped managers track sales and marketing results or acted as glorified datebooks. Recent editions have put even more knowledge at marketers’ fingertips, often through internal “push” or Web technology, so they can give prospective customers more information and keep more detailed notes. Here are three companies that are using computer technology to design fast and comprehensive sales reporting systems: ■ Ascom Timeplex, Inc. Before heading out on a call, sales reps at this telecommunications equipment company use their laptop computers to dial into the company’s worldwide data network. They can retrieve the latest price lists, engineering and configuration notes, status reports on previous orders, and e-mail from anywhere in the company. And when deals are struck, the laptop computers record each order, double-check the order for errors, and send it electronically to Timeplex headquarters in Woodcliff Lake, New Jersey.5 Alliance Health Care Formerly called Baxter, Alliance supplies hospital purchasing departments with computers so that the hospitals can electronically transmit orders directly to Alliance. The timely arrival of orders enables Alliance to cut inventories, improve customer service, and obtain better terms from suppliers for higher volumes. Alliance has achieved a great advantage over competitors, and its market share has soared. Montgomery Security In 1996, San Francisco–based Montgomery Security was in a bind. To remain competitive in the financial sector, this Nations Banks subsidiary had to find a way for more than 400 finance, research, and Gathering Information and Measuring Market Demand ■ ■ 101
Slide 49: sales or trading employees to share information about companies whose stock they were considering taking public. Yet all of the departments at Montgomery had different database formats for their records; some even kept files on notepads. The company solved the problem with Sales Enterprise Software from Siebel Systems. It gave Montgomery significant gains in productivity. With a common database format, everyone could share information and keep confidential information secure.6 The company’s marketing information system should represent a cross between what managers think they need, what managers really need, and what is economically feasible. An internal MIS committee can interview a cross-section of marketing managers to discover their information needs. Some useful questions are: 1. What decisions do you regularly make? 2. What information do you need to make these decisions? 3. What information do you regularly get? 4. What special studies do you periodically request? 5. What information would you want that you are not getting now? 6. What information would you want daily? Weekly? Monthly? Yearly? 7. What magazines and trade reports would you like to see on a regular basis? 8. What topics would you like to be kept informed of? 9. What data analysis programs would you want? 10. What are the four most helpful improvements that could be made in the present marketing information system? M ■ ARKETING INTELLIGENCE SYSTEM Whereas the internal records system supplies results data, the marketing intelligence system supplies happenings data. A marketing intelligence system is a set of procedures and sources used by managers to obtain everyday information about developments in the marketing environment. Marketing managers collect marketing intelligence by reading books, newspapers, and trade publications; talking to customers, suppliers, and distributors; and meeting with other company managers. A company can take several steps to improve the quality of its marketing intelligence. First, it can train and motivate the sales force to spot and report new developments. Sales representatives are the company’s “eyes and ears”; they are positioned to pick up information missed by other means. Yet they are very busy and often fail to pass on significant information. The company must “sell” its sales force on their importance as intelligence gatherers. Sales reps should know which types of information to send to which managers. For instance, the Prentice Hall sales reps who sell this textbook let their editors know what is going on in each discipline, who is doing exciting research, and who plans to write cutting-edge textbooks. Second, the company can motivate distributors, retailers, and other intermediaries to pass along important intelligence. Consider the following example:7 ■ 102 Analyzing Marketing Opportunities Parker Hannifin Corporation A major fluid-power-products manufacturer, Parker Hannifin has asked each of its distributors to forward to Parker’s marketing research division a copy of all invoices containing sales of its products. Parker analyzes these invoices to learn about end users and shares its findings with the distributors. Many companies hire specialists to gather marketing intelligence. Retailers often send mystery shoppers to their stores to assess how employees treat customers. The city of Dallas recently hired Feedback Plus, a professional-shopper agency, to see how car-
Slide 50: pound employees treat citizens picking up their cars. Neiman Marcus employs the same agency to shop at its 26 stores nationwide. “Those stores that consistently score high on the shopping service,” says a Neiman Marcus senior VP, “not so coincidentally have the best sales.” The stores will tell salespeople that they’ve “been shopped” and give them copies of the mystery shopper’s report. Typical questions on the report are: How long before a sales associate greeted you? Did the sales associate act as if he or she wanted your business? Was the sales associate knowledgeable about products in stock?8 Third, companies can learn about competitors by purchasing their products; attending open houses and trade shows; reading competitors’ published reports; attending stockholders’ meetings; talking to employees, dealers, distributors, suppliers, and freight agents; collecting competitors’ ads; and reading the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and trade association papers. Fourth, the company can set up a customer advisory panel made up of representative customers or the company’s largest customers or its most outspoken or sophisticated customers. For example, Hitachi Data Systems holds a three-day meeting with its customer panel of 20 members every 9 months. They discuss service issues, new technologies, and customers’ strategic requirements. The discussion is free-flowing, and both parties gain: The company gains valuable information about customer needs; and the customers feel more bonded to a company that listens closely to their comments.9 Fifth, the company can purchase information from outside suppliers such as the A. C. Nielsen Company and Information Resources, Inc. (see Table 1.2, part D). These research firms gather and store consumer-panel data at a much lower cost than the company could do on its own. Sixth, some companies have established a marketing information center to collect and circulate marketing intelligence. The staff scans the Internet and major publications, abstracts relevant news, and disseminates a news bulletin to marketing managers. It collects and files relevant information and assists managers in evaluating new information. M ARKETING RESEARCH SYSTEM Marketing managers often commission formal marketing studies of specific problems and opportunities. They may request a market survey, a product-preference test, a sales forecast by region, or an advertising evaluation. We define marketing research as follows: ■ Marketing research is the systematic design, collection, analysis, and reporting of data and findings relevant to a specific marketing situation facing the company. SUPPLIERS OF MARKETING RESEARCH A company can obtain marketing research in a number of ways. Most large companies have their own marketing research departments.10 ■ Procter & Gamble P&G assigns marketing researchers to each product operating division to conduct research for existing brands. There are two separate in-house research groups, one in charge of overall company advertising research and the other in charge of market testing. Each group’s staff consists of marketing research managers, supporting specialists (survey designers, statisticians, behavioral scientists), and in-house field representatives to conduct and supervise interviewing. Each year, Procter & Gamble calls or visits over 1 million people in connection with about 1,000 research projects. Hewlett-Packard At HP, marketing research is handled by the Market Research & Information Center (MRIC), located at HP headquarters. The MRIC is a shared resource for all HP divisions worldwide and is divided into three ■ Gathering Information and Measuring Market Demand 103
Slide 51: TABLE 1.2 A. Internal Sources Company profit–loss statements, balance sheets, sales figures, sales-call reports, invoices, inventory records, and prior research reports. B. Government Publications ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Secondary-Data Sources Statistical Abstract of the United States County and City Data Book Industrial Outlook Marketing Information Guide Othervnmgopublicasd Annual Survey of Manufacturers; Business Statistics; Census of Manufacturers; Census of Population; Census of Retail Trade,Wholesale Trade, and Selected Service Industries; Census of Transportation; Federal Reserve Bulletin; Monthly Labor Review; Survey of Current Business; and Vital Statistics Report. C. Periodicals and Books ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Business Periodicals Index Standard and Poor’s Industry Moody’s Manuals Encyclopedia of Associations Mraketingjoulscdh nal of Consumer Research. Journal of Marketing, Journal of Marketing Research, and Jour- Useful trade magzines include Advertising Age, Chain Store Age, Progressive Grocer, Sales & Marketing Management, and Stores. includemagzsbrUf and Harvard Business Review. Business Week, Fortune, Forbes,The Economist, Inc., D. Commercial Data ■ Nielsen Company: Data on products and brands sold through retail outlets (Retail Index Services), supermarket scanner data (Scantrack), data on television audiences (Media Research Services), magazine circulation data (Neodata Services, Inc.), and others. MRCA Information Services: Data on weekly family purchases of consumer products (National Consumer Panel) and data on home food consumption (National Menu Census). Information Resources, Inc.: Supermarket scanner data (InfoScan) and data on the impact of supermarket promotions (PromotioScan). SAMI/Burke: Reports on warehouse withdrawals to food stores in selected market areas (SAMI reports) and supermarket scanner data (Samscam). Simmons Market Research Bureau (MRB Group): Annual reports covering television markets, sporting goods, and proprietary drugs, with demographic data by sex, income, age, and brand preferences (selective markets and media reaching them). O reht laic m o h r es uo gnil es at d o rcsbu e i d l n eht Audit Bureau of Circulation; Arbitron, Audits and Surveys; Dun & Bradstreet; National Family Opinion; Standard Rate & Data Service; and Starch. ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ groups. The Market Information Center provides background information on industries, markets, and competitors using syndicated and other information services. Decision Support Teams provide research consulting services. Regional Satellites in specific locales worldwide support regional HP initiatives.11 Small companies can hire the services of a marketing research firm or conduct research in creative and affordable ways, such as: Analyzing Marketing Opportunities ■ 104 Engaging students or professors to design and carry out projects: One Boston University MBA project helped American Express develop a successful advertising campaign geared toward young professionals. The cost: $15,000.
Slide 52: ■ Using the Internet: A company can collect considerable information at very little cost by examining competitors’ Web sites, monitoring chat rooms, and accessing published data. Checking out rivals: Many small companies routinely visit their competitors. Tom Coohill, a chef who owns two Atlanta restaurants, gives managers a food allowance to dine out and bring back ideas. Atlanta jeweler Frank Maier Jr., who often visits out-of-town rivals, spotted and copied a dramatic way of lighting displays.12 ■ Define the problem and research objectives Companies normally budget marketing research at 1 percent to 2 percent of company sales. A large percentage is spent buying the services of outside firms. Marketing research firms fall into three categories: ■ ■ ■ Develop the research plan Syndicated-service research firms: These firms gather consumer and trade information, which they sell for a fee. Examples: Nielsen Media Research, SAMI/Burke. Custom marketing research firms: These firms are hired to carry out specific projects. They design the study and report the findings. Specialty-line marketing research firms: These firms provide specialized research services. The best example is the field-service firm, which sells field interviewing services to other firms. Collect the information Analyze the information THE MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS Effective marketing research involves the five steps shown in Figure 1-11. We will illustrate these steps with the following situation: American Airlines is constantly looking for new ways to serve its passengers. One manager came up with the idea of offering phone service. The other managers got excited about this idea. The marketing manager volunteered to do some preliminary research. He contacted a major telecommunications company to find out the cost of providing this service on B747 coast-to-coast flights. The telecommunications company said that the equipment would cost the airline about $1,000 a flight. The airline could break even if it charged $25 a phone call and at least 40 passengers made calls during the flight. The marketing manager then asked the company’s marketing research manager to find out how air travelers would respond to this new service. Present the findings FIGURE 1-11 The Marketing Research Process Step 1: Define the Problem and Research Objectives Management must not define a problem too broadly or too narrowly. A marketing manager who tells the marketing researcher, “Find out everything you can about air travelers’ needs,” will collect a lot of unnecessary information. Similarly, a marketing manager who says, “Find out if enough passengers aboard a B747 flying between the East Coast and West Coast would be willing to pay $25 to make a phone call so that American Airlines would break even on the cost of offering this service,” is taking too narrow a view of the problem. To get the information she needs, the marketing researcher could say: “Why does a call have to be priced at $25? Why does American have to break even on the cost of the service? The new service might attract enough new passengers to American so that even if they don’t make enough phone calls, American will make money out of attracting new passengers.” In discussing the problem, American’s managers discovered another issue. If the new service were successful, how fast could other airlines copy it? Airline marketing competition is replete with examples of new services that were so quickly copied by competitors that no airline gained a competitive advantage. How important is it to be first and how long could the lead be sustained? The marketing manager and marketing researcher agreed to define the problem as follows: “Will offering an in-flight phone service create enough incremental preference and profit for American Airlines to justify its cost against other possible investments American might make?” They then agreed on the following specific research objectives: Gathering Information and Measuring Market Demand 105
Slide 53: MARKETING memo 1. What are the main reasons that airline passengers place phone calls while flying? 2. What kinds of passengers would be the most likely to make calls? 3. How many passengers are likely to make calls, given different price levels? 4. How many extra passengers might choose American because of this new service? 5. How much long-term goodwill will this service add to American Airlines’ image? 6. How important is phone service relative to improving other factors such as flight schedules, food quality, and baggage handling? Not all research projects can be this specific. Some research is exploratory—its goal is to shed light on the real nature of the problem and to suggest possible solutions or new ideas. Some research is descriptive—it seeks to ascertain certain magnitudes, such as how many people would make an in-flight phone call at $25 a call. Some research is causal—its purpose is to test a cause-and-effect relationship. For example, would passengers make more calls if the phone were located next to their seat rather than in the aisle near the lavatory? Secondary Sources of Data On-Line The number of on-line government and business information sources is truly overwhelming. Here is a sample of several that should prove useful when conducting on-line market research,and many offer information for free or a reasonable fee. Note that because the Web is changing at such a rapid rate, the addresses may change. Associations ■ American Marketing Association (www.ama.org/hmpage.htm) ■ The American Society of Association Executives (www.asaenet.org) ■ CommerceNet—industry association for Internet commerce (www.commerce.net) ■ Gale’s Encyclopedia of Associations (www.gale.com) Business Information A Business Compass (ABC)—selectively describes and links to key business sites on the Web (www.abcompass.com) ■ A Business Researcher’s Interests— provides links to business directories, media sites, marketing-related resources, and much more (www.brint.com) ■ Bloomberg Personal—timely news and financial services (www.bloomberg.com) ■ C/Net—journalistic coverage of high technology, computers, and the Internet (www.cnet.com) ■ Company Link—free basic directory data, press releases, stock prices, and SEC data on 45,000 U.S. firms and more information available to subscribers (www.companylink.com) ■ EDGAR—public company financial filings (www.sec.gov/edgarhp.htm) ■ Hoover’s—directory of company information (www.hoovers.com) (continued) ■ Step 2: Develop the Research Plan The second stage of marketing research calls for developing the most efficient plan for gathering the needed information. The marketing manager needs to know the cost of the research plan before approving it. Suppose the company estimates that launching the in-flight phone service would yield a long-term profit of $50,000. The manager believes that doing the research would lead to an improved pricing and promotional plan and a long-term profit of $90,000. In this case, the manager should be willing to spend up to $40,000 on this research. If the research would cost more than $40,000, it is not worth doing.13 Designing a research plan calls for decisions on the data sources, research approaches, research instruments, sampling plan, and contact methods. Data Sources. The researcher can gather secondary data, primary data, or both. Secondary data are data that were collected for another purpose and already exist somewhere. Primary data are data gathered for a specific purpose or for a specific research project. Researchers usually start their investigation by examining secondary data to see whether their problem can be partly or wholly solved without collecting costly primary data. (Table 1.2 shows the rich variety of secondary-data sources available in the United States.)14 Secondary data provide a starting point for research and offer the advantages of low cost and ready availability. The Internet, or more particularly, the World Wide Web, is now the greatest repository of information the world has seen. In an incredibly short span of time, the Web has become a key tool for sales and marketing professionals to access competitive information or conduct demographic, industry, or customer research. See the Marketing Memo “Secondary Sources of Data On-line” for a minidirectory of sites where you can conduct free or at least inexpensive market research. When the needed data do not exist or are dated, inaccurate, incomplete, or unreliable, the researcher will have to collect primary data. Most marketing research projects involve some primary-data collection. The normal procedure is to interview some people individually or in groups to get a sense of how people feel about the topic in question and then develop a formal research instrument, debug it, and carry it into the field. When stored and used properly, the data collected in the field can form the backbone of later marketing campaigns. Direct marketers such as record clubs, credit-card companies, and catalog houses have long understood the power of database marketing. ■ 106 Analyzing Marketing Opportunities A customer or prospect database is an organized collection of comprehensive data about individual customers, prospects, or suspects that is current, accessible, and actionable for marketing purposes such as lead
Slide 54: generation, lead qualification, sale of a product or service, or maintenance of customer relationships. Some techniques that are becoming increasingly popular are data warehousing and data mining—but they are not without risks. See the Marketing for the Millennium box, “Companies Turn to Data Warehousing and Data Mining: Exercise Care.” Research Approaches. Primary data can be collected in five ways: observation, focus groups, surveys, behavioral data, and experiments. ■ Observational research: Fresh data can be gathered by observing the relevant actors and settings. The American Airlines researchers might meander around airports, airline offices, and travel agencies to hear how travelers talk about the different carriers. The researchers can fly on American and competitors’ planes to observe the quality of in-flight service. This exploratory research might yield some useful hypotheses about how travelers choose air carriers. Focus-group research: A focus group is a gathering of six to ten people who are invited to spend a few hours with a skilled moderator to discuss a product, service, organization, or other marketing entity. The moderator needs to be objective, knowledgeable on the issue, and skilled in group dynamics. Participants are normally paid a small sum for attending. The meeting is typically held in pleasant surroundings and refreshments are served. In the American Airlines research, the moderator might start with a broad question, such as “How do you feel about air travel?” Questions then move to how people regard the different airlines, different services, and in-flight telephone service. The moderator encourages free and easy discussion, hoping that the group dynamics will reveal deep feelings and thoughts. At the same time, the moderator “focuses” the discussion. The discussion, recorded through note taking or on audiotape or videotape, is subsequently studied to understand consumer beliefs, attitudes, and behavior. Focus-group research is a useful exploratory step. Consumer-goods companies have been using focus groups for many years, and an increasing number of newspapers, law firms, hospitals and public-service organizations are discovering ■ (continued) ■ National Trade Data Bank—free access to over 18,000 market research reports analyzing trends and competition in scores of industries and for hundreds of products (www.stat-usa.gov) ■ Public Register’s Annual Report Service—allows searches of 3,200 public companies by company name or industry and offers annual reports via e-mail (www.prars.com/index.html) ■ Quote.Com—access to a wide range of business wires, companies’ directories, and stock quotes (www.quote.com) Government Information Census Bureau (www.census.gov) ■ FedWorld—a clearinghouse for over 100 federal government agencies (www.fedworld.gov) ■ Thomas—indexes federal government sites (thomas.loc.gov) ■ Trade/Exporting/business:Stat-USA (www.stat-usa.gov) ■ US Business Advisor (www.business.gov) ■ International Information CIA World Factbook—a comprehensive statistical and demographic directory covering 264 countries around the world (www.odic.gov/cia/publications) ■ The Electronic Embassy (www.embassy.org) ■ I-Trade—free and fee-based information services for firms wishing to do business internationally (www.itrade.com) ■ The United Nations (www.un.org) ■ Sources: Based on information from Robert I. Berkman, Find It Fast: How to Uncover Expert Information on Any Subject in Print or Online (New York:HarperCollins, 1997); Christine Galea, “Surf City: The Best Places for Business on the Web,” Sales & Marketing Management,January 1997,pp.69–73;David Curle, “Out-of-the-Way Sources of Market Research on the Web,”Online,January–February 1998,pp.63–68.See also Jan Davis Tudor,“Brewing Up:A Web Approach to Industry Research,”Online,July–August 1996,p.12. Gathering Information and Measuring Market Demand 107
Slide 55: MARKETING FOR MILLENNIUM ram es b t d fo u k h lp x H :gni ■ Companies Turn to Data Warehousing and Data Mining: Exercise Care ICM snoitac um r , p eht , cna sid-g ol r sift throug 1 trilon esytb of omercust phonig dat ot Companies are using data mining, a set of methods that extracts farct wen tnuocsid gnilac snalp rof tnerfid tseyp fo -suc patterns from large masses of data organized in what is called a .omerst a data warehouse. Banks and credit-card companies, telephone ■ e c u d r o t d e g a n m s h r e l a n o i t I b u C n o i t a c V s M ra t o i companies, catalog marketers, and many other companies have sti emulo v f liam dn te y sa rcni t esnop r ta y b -ed a great deal of information about their customers, including not elopingv a md showing c merut in s datbe only their addresses but also their transactions and enhanced era tsom kil y e o t dn pser o t cif ps n a v . re g o data on age, family size, income, and other demographic information. By carefully mining this data, a company could benefit ■ , o c s e r n ip au h m k T B t g f d s e i o n in several ways: such a wine rsbuy o ches ,rbuy when tr wil be a special of wine or .ches ■ K gniwo hc sremo t u y a eb yda r o f a cudorp t edarg f o ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ y napmoc K gniwo hc srem t u y b h o cud rp st f eh Lands ndE ca elt whic of its 2 milon erscut hold ouldwthaemsicngpf rv tif r eh bo d aw . s e n K gniwo hc sremo t u dl w kam e ht seb c p or t orf a specil rof Kowinghcmersutva lifnd gniv meht ro n i t a d rep sk Kowing whic omerscut might endt ot exit and taking epst o nprev this - o r p n a c e s b t d r i py o a h e v i l b r s o m S . e g a t n v d i p m o c y h ef w a s g n I t h c t a w s d,rx iunge o h P t y c n o i t a c l e r s a t a h r e d n o w - a s wntfe u o cih d y b l 0 5 s e r pn xa Ec i m A v o , n e r g o i l m d 5 -3 t a p s n y m o c e h t d s u v a h r e m o t . e s g m d u r n a i c h x e y s m l A a u i do b h c t r p n . sl ib remo t uc f snoil m f gnil am y ht o s i n re f o d t g ra a es hT tif n b od em c tuoh iw v y ae ,tsoc ton yl ni coleting h orignal mecust da but also in matg i and mig t. et Y whn it ,rowsk it yelds mor than i .cost A 69 1 yduts y b D IW de tami s tah eht egar v rute n no -ni tnem s ro v f a d u h w esr oc f t a y i erom naht 0 4 .tnecr p ehT at d s h o t eb ni do g ,n it c dna eht r v ocsid p n al t um eb . dila v M katsi e r -la yspoible:wa 10vtfdcmn T BrolubiatshC erancouvGizlsbkVtgmd selcdt omru wh e vya 90-numbr .se heT insnoita v er w ydaerl ta eht re p tni nehw eht ram k gnite f ats erdvisco tha vye 90-numbr se includ sex- n .thusia lneworqckyTfmdtia of .guest John Verity, A Trillion-Byte Weapon, Business Week, July 31, 1995, pp. 80 81. Sources: Peter R. Peacock, Data Mining in Marketing: Part 1, Marketing Management, Winter l998, pp. 9 18, and Data Mining in Marketing: Part 2, Marketing Management, Spring l998, pp. 15 25; Ginger Conlon, What the !@#!*?!! Is a Data Warehouse? Sales & Marketing Management, April 1997, pp. 41 48; Skip Press, Fool’s Gold? As Companies Rush to Mine Data, They May Dig Up Real Gems—or False Trends, Sales & Marketing Management, April 1997, pp. 58, 60, 62. their value. However, researchers must avoid generalizing the reported feelings of the focus-group participants to the whole market, because the sample size is too small and the sample is not drawn randomly.15 With the development of the World Wide Web, many companies are now conducting on-line focus groups:16 Janice Gjersten of WPStudio, an on-line entertainment company, found that on-line focus-group respondents could be much more honest than those in her traditional in-person focus groups. Gjersten contacted Cyber Dialogue, which provided focusgroup respondents drawn from its 10,000-person database. The focus group was held in a chat room that Gjersten “looked in on” from her office computer. Gjersten could interrupt the moderator at any time with flash e-mails unseen by the respondents. Although the on-line focus group lacked voice and body cues, Gjersten says she will never conduct a traditional focus group again. Not only were respondents more honest, but the cost for the on-line group was one third that of a traditional focus group, and a full report came to her in one day, compared to four weeks. 108 Analyzing Marketing Opportunities
Slide 56: ■ Survey research: Surveys are best suited for descriptive research. Companies undertake surveys to learn about people’s knowledge, beliefs, preferences, and satisfaction, and to measure these magnitudes in the general population. American Airlines researchers might want to survey how many people know American, have flown it, prefer it, and would like telephone availability. Behavioral data: Customers leave traces of their purchasing behavior in store scanning data, catalog purchase records, and customer databases. Much can be learned by analyzing this data. Customers’ actual purchases reflect revealed preferences and often are more reliable than statements they offer to market researchers. People often report preferences for popular brands, and yet the data show them actually buying other brands. For example, grocery shopping data show that high-income people do not necessarily buy the more expensive brands, contrary to what they might state in interviews; and many low-income people buy some expensive brands. Clearly American Airlines can learn many useful things about its passengers by analyzing ticket purchase records. Experimental research: The most scientifically valid research is experimental research. The purpose of experimental research is to capture cause-and-effect relationships by eliminating competing explanations of the observed findings. To the extent that the design and execution of the experiment eliminate alternative hypotheses that might explain the results, the research and marketing managers can have confidence in the conclusions. It calls for selecting matched groups of subjects, subjecting them to different treatments, controlling extraneous variables, and checking whether observed response differences are statistically significant. To the extent that extraneous factors are eliminated or controlled, the observed effects can be related to the variations in the treatments. ■ ■ American Airlines might introduce in-flight phone service on one of its regular flights from New York to Los Angeles at a price of $25 a phone call. On the same flight the following day, it announces the availability of this service at $15 a phone call. If the plane carried the same number and type of passengers on each flight, and the day of the week made no difference, any significant difference in the number of calls made could be related to the price charged. The experimental design could be elaborated further by trying other prices, replicating the same prices on a number of flights, and including other air routes in the experiment. Gathering Information and Measuring Market Demand 109
Slide 57: TABLE 1.3 Name Dichotomous A. Closed-end Questions Description A question with two possible answers. A question with three or more answers. Types of Questions Example In arranging this trip, did you personally phone American? Yes No With whom are you traveling on this flight? eno N nerdlihc a suopS ylno erd ihC se rf/ vital dn co uB puorg tde zina A Spouse Multiple choice Likertscal emntwihcAsa erSmalibtnsgyv ehtswo n d p r /tnem rgafo u .tnem rgasid ylgnortS res . no g al ht civ e rgasiD rehti N e rgasid egrA ylgnortS rone ga 1_ 2_ e rga 3_ e rgasid 4_ 5_ Semantic laitner f d Ascale on ti g w . s d ro w a l p i b - n e h T eg raL reh osi tn p opin. dentslchpoia l amS_ Amer ican l s Experincd_I M redo n denoihsaf- lO_ ropmI elacs n t -ropmiehts a l c A resdo iA f n l m t c v . ret a m o s f c n u b i xE ylem rt re V y emoS ervtoNy toN ropmi tna 1_ -ropmi tahw 2_ -ropmi 3_ tna l at 4_ -ropmi tna tna 5_ -ropmi tna R elacsgnit emos tar h l c A resdo f i c v remA na por atrefomibu elnt.cx ,thgilf no dluo wI celntEx erVyGod God air F 1_ orP 2_ 3_ 4_ 5_ yub-o t n i e I elacs rcsedtah l A bi anoelb i v r w hp I t g f- o tn i e s d p r . yub yle D tin f ylba or P toN yub 1_ ylba or P yle D tin f 2_ yub 3_ 4_ erus yubton 5_ yubton (continued) Research Instruments. Marketing researchers have a choice of two main research instruments in collecting primary data: questionnaires and mechanical devices. ■ 110 Analyzing Marketing Opportunities Questionnaires: A questionnaire consists of a set of questions presented to respondents for their answers. Because of its flexibility, the questionnaire is by far the most common instrument used to collect primary data. Questionnaires need to be carefully developed, tested, and debugged before they are administered on a large scale. In preparing a questionnaire, the professional marketing researcher carefully chooses the questions and their form, wording, and sequence. The form of the question asked can influence the response. Marketing researchers distinguish between closed-end and open-end questions. Closed-end questions prespecify all the possible answers. Open-end questions allow respondents to answer in their own words. Closed-end questions provide answers that are easier to interpret and tabulate. Open-end questions often reveal more because they do not constrain respondents’ answers. Open-end questions are especially useful in exploratory research, where the researcher is looking for insight into how people think rather than in measuring how many people think a certain way. Table 1.3 provides examples of both types of questions.
Slide 58: B. Open-end Questions Name Completely unstructured Word association TABLE 1.3(continued) Description A question that respondents can answer in an almost unlimited number of ways. Words are presented, one at a time, and respondents mention the first word that comes to mind. An incomplete sentence is presented and respondents complete the sentence. An incomplete story is presented, and respondents are asked to complete it. A picture of two characters is presented, with one making a statement. Respondents are asked to identify with the other and fill in the empty balloon. A picture is presented and respondents are asked to make up a story about what they think is happening or may happen in the picture. Example What is your opinion of American Airlines? Types of Questions What is the first word that comes to your mind when you hear the following? Airline __________________________ American __________________________ Travel __________________________ When I choose an airline, the most important consideration in my decision is _______________________________ I flew American a few days ago. I noticed that the exterior and interior of the plane had very bright colors.This aroused in me the following thoughts and feelings . Now com... plete the story. Sentence completion Story completion Picture Thematic Apperception Test (TAT) Finally, the questionnaire designer should exercise care in the wording and sequencing of questions. The questionnaire should use simple, direct, unbiased wording and should be pretested with a sample of respondents before it is used. The lead question should attempt to create interest. Difficult or personal questions should be asked toward the end so that respondents do not become defensive early. Finally, the questions should flow in a logical order. ■ Mechanical Instruments: Mechanical devices are occasionally used in marketing research. Galvanometers measure the interest or emotions aroused by exposure to a specific ad or picture. The tachistoscope flashes an ad to a subject with an exposure interval that may range from less than one hundredth of a second to several seconds. After each exposure, the respondent describes everything he or she recalls. Eye cameras study respondents’ eye movements to see where their eyes land first, how long they linger on a given item, and so on. An audiometer is attached to television sets in participating homes to record when the set is on and to which channel it is tuned.17 Sampling Plan. After deciding on the research approach and instruments, the marketing researcher must design a sampling plan. This plan calls for three decisions: 1. Sampling unit: Who is to be surveyed? The marketing researcher must define the target population that will be sampled. In the American Airlines survey, should the sampling unit be business travelers, vacation travelers, or both? Should travelers under age 21 be interviewed? Should both husbands and wives be interviewed? Once the sampling unit is determined, a sampling Gathering Information and Measuring Market Demand 111
Slide 59: frame must be developed so that everyone in the target population has an equal or known chance of being sampled. 2. Sample size: How many people should be surveyed? Large samples give more reliable results than small samples. However, it is not necessary to sample the entire target population or even a substantial portion to achieve reliable results. Samples of less than 1 percent of a population can often provide good reliability, given a credible sampling procedure. 3. Sampling procedure: How should the respondents be chosen? To obtain a representative sample, a probability sample of the population should be drawn. Probability sampling allows the calculation of confidence limits for sampling error. Thus one could conclude after the sample is taken that “the interval 5 to 7 trips per year has 95 chances in 100 of containing the true number of trips taken annually by air travelers in the Southwest.” Three types of probability sampling are described in Table 4.3, part A. When the cost or time involved in probability sampling is too high, marketing researchers will take nonprobability samples. Table 4.3, part B, describes three types of nonprobability sampling. Some marketing researchers feel that nonprobability samples are very useful in many circumstances, even though they do not allow sampling error to be measured. Contact Methods. Once the sampling plan has been determined, the marketing researcher must decide how the subject should be contacted: mail, telephone, personal, or on-line interviews. The mail questionnaire is the best way to reach people who would not give personal interviews or whose responses might be biased or distorted by the interviewers. Mail questionnaires require simple and clearly worded questions. Unfortunately, the response rate is usually low or slow. Telephone interviewing is the best method for gathering information quickly; the interviewer is also able to clarify questions if respondents do not understand them. The response rate is typically higher than in the case of mailed questionnaires. The main drawback is that the interviews have to be short and not too personal. Telephone interviewing is getting more difficult because of answering machines and people becoming suspicious of telemarketing. Personal interviewing is the most versatile method. The interviewer can ask more questions and record additional observations about the respondent, such as dress and body language. Personal interviewing is the most expensive method and requires more administrative planning and supervision than the other three. It is also subject to interviewer bias or distortion. Personal interviewing takes two forms. In arranged interviews, respondents are contacted for an appointment. Often a small payment or incentive is offered. Intercept interviews involve stopping people at a shopping mall or busy street corner and requesting an interview. Intercept interviews have the drawTABLE 1.4 A. Probability Sample Simple random sample Stratified random sample Every member of the population has an equal chance of selection. The population is divided into mutually exclusive groups (such as age groups), and random samples are drawn from each group. The population is divided into mutually exclusive groups (such as city blocks), and the researcher draws a sample of the groups to interview. The researcher selects the most accessible population members. The researcher selects population members who are good prospects for accurate information. The researcher finds and interviews a prescribed number of people in each of several categories. Probability and Nonprobability Samples Cluster (area) sample B. Nonprobability Sample Convenience sample Judgment sample Analyzing Marketing Opportunities Quota sample 112
Slide 60: back of being nonprobability samples, and the interviews must not require too much time. There is increased use of on-line interviewing. A company can include a questionnaire at its Web page and offer an incentive to answer the questionnaire. Or it can place a banner on some frequently visited site inviting people to answer some questions and possibly win a prize. Or the company can enter a target chat room and seek volunteers for a survey. In collecting data on-line, however, the company must recognize the data’s limitations. The company cannot assume that the data are representative of a target population, because the respondents are self-selected. People in the target market who do not use the Internet or who don’t want to answer a questionnaire can bias the results. Still the information can be useful for exploratory research in suggesting hypotheses that might be investigated in a more scientific subsequent survey. Many companies are now using automated telephone surveys to solicit market research information. MetroHealth Systems in Cleveland used to have a dismal return rate of 50 percent on its paper patient-satisfaction surveys. Then the company teamed up with Sprint Healthcare systems of Overland Park, Kansas, to deliver an interactive phone survey. Under the pilot project, patients who left the hospital received a phone card with a toll-free number. When they dialed, a recording asked them several questions about their hospital experience. Results that once took months to sort now came back in a few days, and more patients completed the survey.18 And how do you provide incentives for customers to answer your automated survey? One popular approach is to use prepaid phone cards as an incentive. A survey is programmed into an interactive call system that not only administers the survey but also sorts the results virtually any way the client wants them. Then the client distributes the calling cards to its selected market segment. When the call users place their free calls, a voice prompt asks them if they would like to gain additional minutes by taking a short survey. NBC, Coca-Cola, and Amoco are some of the companies that have used prepaid phone cards to survey their customers.19 Step 3: Collect the Information The data collection phase of marketing research is generally the most expensive and the most prone to error. In the case of surveys, four major problems arise. Some respondents will not be at home and must be recontacted or replaced. Other respondents will refuse to cooperate. Still others will give biased or dishonest answers. Finally, some interviewers will be biased or dishonest. Yet data collection methods are rapidly improving thanks to computers and telecommunications. Some research firms interview from a centralized location. Professional interviewers sit in booths and draw telephone numbers at random. When the phone is answered, the interviewer reads a set of questions from a monitor and types the respondents’ answers into a computer. This procedure eliminates editing and coding, reduces errors, saves time, and produces all the required statistics. Other research firms have set up interactive terminals in shopping centers. Persons willing to be interviewed sit at a terminal, read the questions from the monitor, and type in their answers. Most respondents enjoy this form of “robot” interviewing.20 Several recent technical advances have permitted marketers to research the sales impact of ads and sales promotion. Information Resources, Inc. recruits a panel of supermarkets equipped with scanners and electronic cash registers. Scanners read the universal product code on each product purchased, recording the brand, size, and price for inventory and ordering purposes. Meanwhile, the firm has recruited a panel of these stores’ customers who have agreed to charge their purchases with a special Shopper’s Hotline ID card, which holds information about household characteristics, lifestyle, and income. These same customers have also agreed to let their television-viewing habits be monitored by a black box. All consumer panelists receive their programs through cable television, and Information Resources controls the advertising messages being sent to their houses. The firm can then capture through store purchases which ads led to more purchasing and by which customers.21 Gathering Information and Measuring Market Demand 113
Slide 61: Step 4: Analyze the Information The next-to-last step in the marketing research process is to extract findings from the collected data. The researcher tabulates the data and develops frequency distributions. Averages and measures of dispersion are computed for the major variables. The researcher will also apply some advanced statistical techniques and decision models in the hope of discovering additional findings. (Techniques and models are described later.) Step 5: Present the Findings As the last step, the researcher presents the findings to the relevant parties. The researcher should present major findings that are relevant to the major marketing decisions facing management. The main survey findings for the American Airlines case show that: 1. The chief reasons for using in-flight phone service are emergencies, urgent business deals, and mix-ups in flight times. Making phone calls to pass the time would be rare. Most of the calls would be made by businesspeople on expense accounts. 2. About 20 passengers out of every 200 would make in-flight phone calls at a price of $25 a call; about 40 would make calls at $15. Thus a charge of $15 would produce more revenue (40 $15 $600) than $25 (20 $25 $500). Still, this is far below the in-flight break-even cost of $1,000. 3. The promotion of in-flight phone service would win American about two extra passengers on each flight. The net revenue from these two extra passengers would be about $400, and the airline would be able to break even. 4. Offering in-flight service would strengthen the public’s image of American Airlines as an innovative and progressive airline. American would break even and gain some new passengers and customer goodwill. TABLE 1.5 1.Scientific method: The Seven Characteristics of Good Marketing Research Effective marketing research uses the principles of the scientific method: careful observation, formulation of hypotheses, prediction, and testing. At its best, marketing research develops innovative ways to solve a problem: a clothing company catering to teenagers gave several young men video cameras, then used the videos for focus groups held in restaurants and other places teens frequent. Good marketing researchers shy away from overreliance on any one method.They also recognize the value of using two or three methods to increase confidence in the results. Good marketing researchers recognize that data are interpreted from underlying models that guide the type of information sought. Good marketing researchers show concern for estimating the value of information against its cost. Costs are typically easy to determine, but the value of research is harder to quantify. It depends on the reliability and validity of the findings and management’s willingness to accept and act on those findings. Good marketing researchers show a healthy skepticism toward glib assumptions made by managers about how a market works. They are alert to the problems caused by marketing myths. Good marketing research benefits both the sponsoring company and its customers. The misuse of marketing research can harm or annoy consumers. Increasing resentment at what consumers regard as an invasion of their privacy or a sales pitch has become a major problem for the research industry. 2. Research creativity: 3. Multiple methods: 4. Interdependence of models and data: 5. Value and cost of information: 6. Healthy skepticism: 7. Ethical marketing: 114 Analyzing Marketing Opportunities
Slide 62: M A R K E T I N G 3. The effectiveness of advertising is revealed by how memorable and persuasive it is. Actually, the best ads, when measured by recall and persuasion scores, are not necessarily the most efKevin Clancy and Robert Shulman charge that too many fective ads. A much better predictor of an ad’s effectiveness companies build their marketing plans on marketing myths. is the buyer’s attitude toward the advertising—specifically, Webster’s dictionary defines a myth as an ill-founded belief held the buyer feels he or she received useful informawhether uncritically, especially by an interested group. Clancy and Shul- whether the buyer liked the advertising. tion and man list the following myths that have led marketing managers 4. A company is wise to spend the major portion of its research down the wrong path: budget on focus groups and qualitative research. Focus groups Marketing Researchers Challenge Conventional Marketing Wisdom I NSIGHT 1. A brand’s best prospects are the heavy buyers in the category. Although most companies pursue heavy buyers, these people may not be the best target of marketing efforts. Many heavy users are highly committed to specific competitors, and those who are not are often willing to switch products when a competitor offers them a better deal. 2. The more appealing a new product is, the more likely it will be a success. This philosophy can lead the company to give away too much to the customer and result in lower profitability. and qualitative research are useful but the major part of the research budget should be spent on quantitative research and surveys. Some marketers will undoubtedly present counterexamples where these myths have actually yielded positive results. Nevertheless, the authors deserve credit for forcing marketers to rethink their basic assumptions. Source: Kevin J. Clancy and Robert S. Shulman, The Marketing Revolution: A Radical Manifesto for Dominating the Marketplace (New York: HarperBusiness, 1991). Of course, these findings could suffer from a variety of errors, and management may want to study the issues further. (See Table 1.5 and the Marketing Insight box, “Marketing Researchers Challenge Conventional Marketing Wisdom.”). But American could now have more confidence in launching the telephone service. OVERCOMING BARRIERS TO THE USE OF MARKETING RESEARCH In spite of the rapid growth of marketing research, many companies still fail to use it sufficiently or correctly, for several reasons: ■ A narrow conception of marketing research: Many managers see marketing research as a fact-finding operation. They expect the researcher to design a questionnaire, choose a sample, conduct interviews, and report results, often without a careful definition of the problem or of the decision alternatives facing management. When fact-finding fails to be useful, management’s idea of the limited usefulness of marketing research is reinforced. Uneven caliber of marketing researchers: Some managers view marketing research as little more than a clerical activity and reward it as such. Less competent marketing researchers are hired, and their weak training and deficient creativity lead to unimpressive results. The disappointing results reinforce management’s prejudice against marketing research. Management continues to pay low salaries to its market researchers, thus perpetuating the basic problem. Late and occasionally erroneous findings by marketing research: Managers want quick results that are accurate and conclusive. Yet good marketing research takes time and money. Managers are disappointed when marketing research costs too much or takes too much time. They also point to well-known cases where the marketing research predicted the wrong result, as when Coca-Cola introduced the New Coke. Personality and presentational differences: Differences between the styles of line managers and marketing researchers often get in the way of productive relationships. To a manager who wants concreteness, simplicity, and certainty, a Gathering Information and Measuring Market Demand ■ ■ ■ 115
Slide 63: marketing researcher’s report may seem abstract, complicated, and tentative. Yet in the more progressive companies, marketing researchers are increasingly being included as members of the product management team, and their influence on marketing strategy is growing. M ■ ARKETING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM A growing number of organizations are using a marketing decision support system to help their marketing managers make better decisions. Little defines an MDSS as follows: A marketing decision support system (MDSS) is a coordinated collection of data, systems, tools, and techniques with supporting software and hardware by which an organization gathers and interprets relevant information from business and environment and turns it into a basis for marketing action.22 Table 1.6 describes the major statistical tools, models, and optimization routines that comprise a modern MDSS. Lilien and Rangaswamy recently published Marketing Engineering: Computer-Assisted Marketing Analysis and Planning, which provides a package of widely used modeling software tools.23 The April 13, 1998, issue of Marketing News lists over 100 current marketing and sales software programs that assist in designing marketing research studies, segmenting markets, setting prices and advertising budgets, analyzing media, and planning sales force activity. Here are examples of decision models that have been used by marketing managers: BRANDAID: A flexible marketing-mix model focused on consumer packaged goods whose elements are a manufacturer, competitors, retailers, consumers, and the general environment. The model contains submodels for advertising, pricing, and competition. The model is calibrated with a creative blending of judgment, historical analysis, tracking, field experimentation, and adaptive control.24 CALLPLAN: A model to help salespeople determine the number of calls to make per period to each prospect and current client. The model takes into account travel time as well as selling time. The model was tested at United Airlines with an experimental group that managed to increase its sales over a matched control group by 8 percentage points.25 DETAILER: A model to help salespeople determine which customers to call on and which products to represent on each call. This model was largely developed for pharmaceutical detail people calling on physicians where they could represent no more than three products on a call. In two applications, the model yielded strong profit improvements.26 GEOLINE: A model for designing sales and service territories that satisfies three principles: the territories equalize sales workloads; each territory consists of adjacent areas; and the territories are compact. Several successful applications were reported.27 MEDIAC: A model to help an advertiser buy media for a year. The media planning model includes market-segment delineation, sales potential estimation, diminishing marginal returns, forgetting, timing issues, and competitor media schedules.28 Some models now claim to duplicate the way expert marketers normally make their decisions. Some recent expert system models include: PROMOTER evaluates sales promotions by determining baseline sales (what sales would have been without promotion) and measuring the increase over baseline associated with the promotion.29 ADCAD recommends the type of ad (humorous, slice of life, and so on) to use given the marketing goals, product characteristics, target market, and competitive situation.30 116 Analyzing Marketing Opportunities
Slide 64: Statistical Tools 1. Multiple regression: TABLE A statistical technique for estimating a best fitting equation showing how the value of a dependent variable varies with changing values in a number of independent variables. Example: A company can estimate how unit sales are influenced by changes in the level of company advertising expenditures, sales force size, and price. A statistical technique for classifying an object or persons into two or more categories. Example: A large retail chain store can determine the variables that discriminate between successful and unsuccessful store locations. a A statistical technique used to determine the few underlying dimensions of a larger set of intercorrelated variables. Example: A broadcast network can reduce a large set of TV programs down to a small set of basic program types. b A statistical technique for separating objects into a specified number of mutually exclusive groups such that the groups are relatively homogeneous. Example: A marketing researcher might want to classify a set of cities into four distinct groups. A statistical technique whereby respondents’ ranked preferences for different offers are decomposed to determine the person’s inferred utility function for each attribute and the relative importance of each attribute. Example: An airline can determine the total utility delivered by different combinations of passenger services. 1.6 Quantitative Tools Used in Marketing Decision Support Systems 2. Discriminant analysis: 3. Factor analysis: 4. Cluster analysis: 5. Conjoint analysis: 6. Multidimensional scaling: A variety of techniques for producing perceptual maps of competitive products or brands. Objects are represented as points in a multidimensional space of attributes where their distance from one another is a measure of dissimilarity. Example: A computer manufacturer wants to see where his brand is positioned in relation to competitive brands. Models 1. Markov-process model: This model shows the probability of moving from a current state to any future state. Example: A branded packaged-goods manufacturer can determine the period-to-period switching and staying rates for her brand and, if the probabilities are stable, the brand’s ultimate brand share. This model shows the waiting times and queue lengths that can be expected in any system, given the arrival and service times and the number of service channels. Example: A supermarket can use the model to predict queue lengths at different times of the day given the number of service channels and service speed. This model involves estimating functional relations between buyer states of awareness, trial, and repurchase based on consumer preferences and actions in a pretest situation of the marketing offer and campaign. Among the well-known models are ASSESSOR, COMP, DEMON, NEWS, and SPRINTER. c This is a set of models that estimate functional relations between one or more marketing variables—such as sales force size, advertising expenditure, sales-promotion expenditure, and so forth— and the resulting demand level. This technique allows finding the maximum or minimum value along a well-behaved function. (continued) 2. Queuing model: 3. New-product pretest models: 4. Sales-response models: Optimization Routines 1. Differential calculus: Gathering Information and Measuring Market Demand 117
Slide 65: TABLE 1.6 (cont.) Quantitative Tools Used in Marketing Decision Support Systems 2. Mathematical programming: 3. Statistical decision theory: 4. Game theory: This technique allows finding the values that would optimize some objective function that is subject to a set of constraints. This technique allows determining the course of action that produces the maximum expected value. This technique allows determining the course of action that will minimize the decision maker’s maximum loss in the face of the uncertain behavior of one or more competitors. This involves using a set of rules of thumb that shorten the time or work required to find a reasonably good solution in a complex system. 5. Heuristics: S. Sands, Store Site Selection by Discriminant Analysis, Journal of the Market Research Society, 1981, pp. 40 51. V. R. Rao, Taxonomy of Television Programs Based on Viewing Behavior, Journal of Marketing Research, August 1975, pp. 355 58. c See Kevin J. Clancy, Robert Shulman, and Marianne Wolf, Simulated Test Marketing (New York: Lexington Books, 1994). b a COVERSTORY examines a mass of syndicated sales data and writes an English-language memo reporting the highlights.31 The first decade of the twenty-first century will undoubtedly usher in further software programs and decision models. A N OVERVIEW OF FORECASTING AND DEMAND MEASUREMENT One major reason for undertaking marketing research is to identify market opportunities. Once the research is complete, the company must measure and forecast the size, growth, and profit potential of each market opportunity. Sales forecasts are used by finance to raise the needed cash for investment and operations; by the manufacturing department to establish capacity and output levels; by purchasing to acquire the right amount of supplies; and by human resources to hire the needed number of workers. Marketing is responsible for preparing the sales forecasts. If its forecast is far off the mark, the company will be saddled with excess inventory or have inadequate inventory. Sales forecasts are based on estimates of demand. Managers need to define what they mean by market demand. THE MEASURES OF MARKET DEMAND Companies can prepare as many as 90 different types of demand estimates (see Figure 1-12. Demand can be measured for six different product levels, five different space levels, and three different time levels. Each demand measure serves a specific purpose. A company might forecast shortrun demand for a particular product for the purpose of ordering raw materials, planning production, and borrowing cash. It might forecast regional demand for its major product line to decide whether to set up regional distribution. WHICH MARKET TO MEASURE? Marketers talk about potential markets, available markets, served markets, and penetrated markets. Let us start with the definition of market: ■ A market is the set of all actual and potential buyers of a market offer. 118 Analyzing Marketing Opportunities The size of a market hinges on the number of buyers who might exist for a particular market offer. The potential market is the set of consumers who profess a sufficient level of interest in a market offer.
Slide 66: Space level World U.S.A. Region Territory Customer All sales Industry sales Company sales Product line sales Product form sales Product item sales Short run Medium run Time level Long run FIGURE 1-12 Ninety Types of Demand Measurement (6 5 3) Product level Consumer interest is not enough to define a market. Potential consumers must have enough income and must have access to the product offer. The available market is the set of consumers who have interest, income, and access to a particular offer. For some market offers, the company or government may restrict sales to certain groups. For example, a particular state might ban motorcycle sales to anyone under 21 years of age. The eligible adults constitute the qualified available market—the set of consumers who have interest, income, access, and qualifications for the particular market offer. A company can go after the whole available market or concentrate on certain segments. The target market (also called the served market) is the part of the qualified available market the company decides to pursue. The company, for example, might decide to concentrate its marketing and distribution effort on the East Coast. The company will end up selling to a certain number of buyers in its target market. The penetrated market is the set of consumers who are buying the company’s product. These market definitions are a useful tool for market planning. If the company is not satisfied with its current sales, it can take a number of actions. It can try to attract a larger percentage of buyers from its target market. It can lower the qualifications of potential buyers. It can expand its available market by opening distribution elsewhere or lowering its price. Ultimately, the company can try to expand the potential market by advertising the product to less interested consumers or ones not previously targeted. Some retailers have been successful at retargeting their market with new ad campaigns. Consider the case of Target Stores. ■ Target Facing stiff competition from top retailers Wal-Mart and Kmart, Target Stores decided to reach more affluent shoppers and woo them away from department stores. The midwestern discount retailer ran an unusual advertising campaign in some unusual spots: the Sunday magazines of the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, and the San Francisco Examiner. One ad showed a woman riding a vacuum cleaner through the night sky. The ad simply said “Fashion and Housewares” with the Target logo in the lower righthand corner. With the look of department store ads, these hip spots have now gained Target Stores a reputation as the “upstairs” mass retailer. It’s the place where folks who normally shop in a department store wouldn’t feel they were slumming by purchasing clothing along with staples like housewares, both at good prices.32 Gathering Information and Measuring Market Demand 119
Slide 67: A VOCABULARY FOR DEMAND MEASUREMENT The major concepts in demand measurement are market demand and company demand. Within each, we distinguish among a demand function, a sales forecast, and a potential. Market Demand As we’ve seen, the marketer’s first step in evaluating marketing opportunities is to estimate total market demand. ■ Market demand for a product is the total volume that would be bought by a defined customer group in a defined geographical area in a defined time period in a defined marketing environment under a defined marketing program. Market demand is not a fixed number but rather a function of the stated conditions. For this reason, it can be called the market demand function. The dependence of total market demand on underlying conditions is illustrated in Figure 1-13. The horizontal axis shows different possible levels of industry marketing expenditure in a given time period. The vertical axis shows the resulting demand level. The curve represents the estimated market demand associated with varying levels of industry marketing expenditure. Some base sales (called the market minimum, labeled Q1 in the figure) would take place without any demand-stimulating expenditures. Higher levels of industry marketing expenditures would yield higher levels of demand, first at an increasing rate, then at a decreasing rate. Marketing expenditures beyond a certain level would not stimulate much further demand, thus suggesting an upper limit to market demand called the market potential (labeled Q 2 in the figure). The distance between the market minimum and the market potential shows the overall marketing sensitivity of demand. We can think of two extreme types of markets, the expansible and the nonexpansible. An expansible market, such as the market for racquetball playing, is very much affected in its total size by the level of industry marketing expenditures. In terms of Figure 1-13(a), the distance between Q 1 and Q 2 is relatively large. A nonexpansible market—for example, the market for opera—is not much affected by the level of marketing expenditures; the distance between Q 1 and Q 2 is relatively small. Organizations selling in a nonexpansible market must accept the market’s size (the level of primary demand for the product class) and direct their efforts to winning a larger market share for their product (the level of selective demand for the company’s product). It is important to emphasize that the market demand function is not a picture of market demand over time. Rather, the curve shows alternative current forecasts of market demand associated with alternative possible levels of industry marketing effort in the current period. Market Forecast Only one level of industry marketing expenditure will actually occur. The market demand corresponding to this level is called the market forecast. Market Potential The market forecast shows expected market demand, not maximum market demand. For the latter, we have to visualize the level of market demand resulting from a “very high” level of industry marketing expenditure, where further increases in marketing effort would have little effect in stimulating further demand. ■ Market potential is the limit approached by market demand as industry marketing expenditures approach infinity for a given marketing environment. 120 Analyzing Marketing Opportunities The phrase “for a given market environment” is crucial. Consider the market potential for automobiles in a period of recession versus a period of prosperity. The market potential is higher during prosperity. The dependence of market potential on the environment is illustrated in Figure 1-13(b). Market analysts distinguish between the position of the market demand function and movement along it. Companies cannot do
Slide 68: Market demand in the specific period Market potential, Q2 Market forecast, QF Planned expenditure Industry marketing expenditure Market demand in the specific period (a) Marketing demand as a function of industry marketing expenditure (assumes a particular marketing environment) (b) Marketing demand as a function of industry marketing expenditure (two different environments assumed) Market potential (prosperity) Market potential (recession) Prosperity Recession Market minimum, Q1 Industry marketing expenditure FIGURE anything about the position of the market demand function, which is determined by the marketing environment. However, companies influence their particular location on the function when they decide how much to spend on marketing. 1-13 Market Demand Functions Company Demand We are now ready to define company demand. ■ Company demand is the company’s estimated share of market demand at alternative levels of company marketing effort in a given time period. The company’s share of market demand depends on how its products, services, prices, communications, and so on are perceived relative to the competitors’. If other things are equal, the company’s market share would depend on the size and effectiveness of its market expenditures relative to competitors. Marketing model builders have developed sales-response functions to measure how a company’s sales are affected by its marketing expenditure level, marketing mix, and marketing effectiveness.33 Company Sales Forecast Once marketers have estimated company demand, their next task is to choose a level of marketing effort. The chosen level will produce an expected level of sales. ■ The company sales forecast is the expected level of company sales based on a chosen marketing plan and an assumed marketing environment. The company sales forecast is represented graphically with company sales on the vertical axis and company marketing effort on the horizontal axis, as in Figure 1-13. Too often the sequential relationship between the company forecast and the company marketing plan is confused. One frequently hears that the company should develop its marketing plan on the basis of its sales forecast. This forecast-to-plan sequence is valid if “forecast” means an estimate of national economic activity or if company demand is nonexpansible. The sequence is not valid, however, where market demand is expansible or where “forecast” means an estimate of company sales. The company sales forecast does not establish a basis for deciding what to spend on marketing. On the contrary, the sales forecast is the result of an assumed marketing expenditure plan. Two other concepts are worth mentioning in relation to the company sales forecast. ■ A sales quota is the sales goal set for a product line, company division, or sales representative. It is primarily a managerial device for defining and stimulating sales effort. Gathering Information and Measuring Market Demand Management sets sales quotas on the basis of the company sales forecast and the psychology of stimulating its achievement. Generally, sales quotas are set slightly higher than estimated sales to stretch the sales force’s effort. 121
Slide 69: ■ A sales budget is a conservative estimate of the expected volume of sales and is used primarily for making current purchasing, production, and cashflow decisions. The sales budget considers the sales forecast and the need to avoid excessive risk. Sales budgets are generally set slightly lower than the sales forecast. Company Sales Potential Company sales potential is the sales limit approached by company demand as company marketing effort increases relative to competitors. The absolute limit of company demand is, of course, the market potential. The two would be equal if the company achieved 100 percent of the market. In most cases, company sales potential is less than market potential, even when company marketing expenditures increase considerably relative to competitors’. The reason is that each competitor has a hard core of loyal buyers who are not very responsive to other companies’ efforts to woo them. ESTIMATING CURRENT DEMAND We are now ready to examine practical methods for estimating current market demand. Marketing executives want to estimate total market potential, area market potential, and total industry sales and market shares. Total Market Potential Total market potential is the maximum amount of sales that might be available to all the firms in an industry during a given period under a given level of industry marketing effort and given environmental conditions. A common way to estimate total market potential is as follows: Estimate the potential number of buyers times the average quantity purchased by a buyer times the price. If 100 million people buy books each year, and the average book buyer buys three books a year, and the average price of a book is $10, then the total market potential for books is $3 billion (100 million 3 $10). The most difficult component to estimate is the number of buyers in the specific product or market. One can always start with the total population in the nation, say 261 million people. The next step is to eliminate groups that obviously would not buy the product. Let us assume that illiterate people and children under 12 do not buy books, and they constitute 20 percent of the population. This means that only 80 percent of the population, or approximately 209 million people, would be in the suspect pool. We might do further research and find that people of low income and low education do not read books, and they constitute over 30 percent of the suspect pool. Eliminating them, we arrive at a prospect pool of approximately 146.3 million book buyers. We would use this number of potential buyers to calculate total market potential. A variation on this method is the chain-ratio method. It involves multiplying a base number by several adjusting percentages. Suppose a brewery is interested in estimating the market potential for a new light beer. An estimate can be made by the following calculation:34 Demand for the new light beer Population personal discretionary income per capita average percentage of discretionary income spent on food average percentage of amount spent on food that is spent on beverages average percentage of amount spent on beverages that is spent on alcoholic beverages average percentage of amount spent on alcoholic beverages that is spent on beer expected percentage of amount spent on beer that will be spent on light beer 122 Analyzing Marketing Opportunities Area Market Potential Companies face the problem of selecting the best territories and allocating their marketing budget optimally among these territories. Therefore, they need to estimate the
Slide 70: market potential of different cities, states, and nations. Two major methods of assessing area market potential are available: the market-buildup method, which is used primarily by business marketers, and the multiple-factor index method, which is used primarily by consumer marketers. Market-Buildup Method. The market-buildup method calls for identifying all the potential buyers in each market and estimating their potential purchases. This method produces accurate results if we have a list of all potential buyers and a good estimate of what each will buy. Unfortunately, this information is not always easy to gather. Consider a machine-tool company that wants to estimate the area market potential for its wood lathe in the Boston area. Its first step is to identify all potential buyers of wood lathe in the area. The buyers consist primarily of manufacturing establishments that have to shape or ream wood as part of their operation, so the company could compile a list from a directory of all manufacturing establishments in the Boston area. Then it could estimate the number of lathes each industry might purchase based on the number of lathes per thousand employees or per $1 million of sales in that industry. An efficient method of estimating area market potentials makes use of the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) System developed by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. The SIC classifies all manufacturing into 20 major industry groups, each with a twodigit code. Thus number 25 is furniture and fixtures, and number 35 is machinery except electrical. Each major industry group is further subdivided into about 150 industry groups designated by a three-digit code (number 251 is household furniture, and number 252 is office furniture). Each industry is further subdivided into approximately 450 product categories designated by a four-digit code (number 2521 is wood office furniture, and number 2522 is metal office furniture). For each four-digit SIC number, the Census of Manufacturers provides the number of establishments subclassified by location, number of employees, annual sales, and net worth. The SIC System is currently being changed over to the new North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), which was developed by the United States, Canada, and Mexico to provide statistics that are comparable across the three countries. It includes 350 new industries, and it uses 20 instead of the SIC’s 10 broad sectors of the economy, changes reflecting how the economy has changed. Industries are identified by a six-digit rather than a four-digit code, with the last digit changing depending on the country. The first information based on the new system will be published in early 1999 in the new Economic Census data.35 To use the SIC, the lathe manufacturer must first determine the four-digit SIC codes that represent products whose manufacturers are likely to require lathe machines. For example, lathes will be used by manufacturers in SIC number 2511 (wood household furniture), number 2521 (wood office furniture), and so on. To get a full picture of all four-digit SIC industries that might use lathes, the company can use three methods: (1) It can determine past customers’ SIC codes; (2) it can go through the SIC manual and check off all the four-digit industries that, in its judgment, would have an interest in lathes; (3) it can mail questionnaires to a wide range of companies inquiring about their interest in wood lathes. The company’s next task is to determine an appropriate base for estimating the number of lathes that will be used in each industry. Suppose customer industry sales are the most appropriate base. For example, in SIC number 2511, ten lathes may be used for every $1 million worth of sales. Once the company estimates the rate of lathe ownership relative to the customer industry’s sales, it can compute the market potential. Table 1.7 shows a hypothetical computation for the Boston area involving two SIC codes. In number 2511 (wood household furniture), there are six establishments with annual sales of $1 million and two establishments with annual sales of $5 million. It is estimated that 10 lathes can be sold in this SIC code for every $1 million in customer sales. The six establishments with annual sales of $1 million account for $6 million in sales, which is a potential of 60 lathes (6 10). Altogether, it appears that the Boston area has a market potential for 200 lathes. The company can use the same method to estimate the market potential for other Gathering Information and Measuring Market Demand 123
Slide 71: TABLE 1.7 (b) Number of Establishments 6 2 3 1 Market-Buildup Method Using SIC Codes SIC 2511 2521 (a) Annual Sales in Millions of $ 1 5 1 5 (c) Potential Number of Lathe Sales per $1 Million Customer Sales 10 10 5 5 30 Market Potential (a b c) 60 100 15 25 200 areas in the country. Suppose the market potentials for all the markets add up to 2,000 lathes. This means that the Boston market contains 10 percent of the total market potential, which might warrant the company’s allocating 10 percent of its marketing expenditures to the Boston market. In practice, SIC information is not enough. The lathe manufacturer also needs additional information about each market, such as the extent of market saturation, the number of competitors, the market growth rate, and the average age of existing equipment. If the company decides to sell lathes in Boston, it must know how to identify the best-prospect companies. In the old days, sales reps called on companies door to door; this was called bird-dogging or smokestacking. Cold calls are far too costly today. The company should get a list of Boston companies and qualify them by direct mail or telemarketing to identify the best prospects. The lathe manufacturer can access Dun’s Market Identifiers, which lists 27 key facts for over 9,300,000 business locations in the United States and Canada. Multiple-Factor Index Method. Like business marketers, consumer companies also have to estimate area market potentials. But the customers of consumer companies are too numerous to be listed. Thus the method most commonly used in consumer markets is a straightforward index method. A drug manufacturer, for example, might assume that the market potential for drugs is directly related to population size. If the state of Virginia has 2.28 percent of the U.S. population, the company might assume that Virginia will be a market for 2.28 percent of total drugs sold. A single factor, however, is rarely a complete indicator of sales opportunity. Regional drug sales are also influenced by per capita income and the number of physicians per 10,000 people. Thus it makes sense to develop a multiple-factor index with each factor assigned a specific weight. The numbers are the weights attached to each variable. For example, suppose Virginia has 2.00 percent of the U.S. disposable personal income, 1.96 percent of U.S. retail sales, and 2.28 percent of U.S. population, and the respective weights are 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2. The buying-power index for Virginia would be 0.5(2.00) 0.3(1.96) 0.2(2.28) 2.04 124 Analyzing Marketing Opportunities Thus 2.04 percent of the nation’s drug sales might be expected to take place in Virginia. The weights used in the buying-power index are somewhat arbitrary. Other weights can be assigned if appropriate. Furthermore, a manufacturer would want to adjust the market potential for additional factors, such as competitors’ presence in that market, local promotional costs, seasonal factors, and local market idiosyncrasies. Many companies compute other area indexes as a guide to allocating marketing resources. Suppose the drug company is reviewing the six cities listed in Table 1.8. The first two columns show its percentage of U.S. brand and category sales in these six cities. Column 3 shows the brand development index (BDI), which is the index of brand sales to category sales. Seattle, for example, has a BDI of 114 because the brand
Slide 72: Territory Seattle Portland Boston Toledo Chicago Baltimore (a) Percent of U.S. Brand Sales 3.09 6.74 3.49 .97 1.13 3.12 (b) Percent of U.S. Category Sales 2.71 10.41 3.85 .81 .81 3.00 TABLE BDI b) 100 114 65 91 120 140 104 1.8 (a Calculating the Brand Development Index (BDI) is relatively more developed than the category in Seattle. Portland has a BDI of 65, which means that the brand in Portland is relatively underdeveloped. Normally, the lower the BDI, the higher the market opportunity, in that there is room to grow the brand. However, other marketers would argue the opposite, that marketing funds should go into the brand’s strongest markets—where it might be easy to capture more brand share.36 After the company decides on the city-by-city allocation of its budget, it can refine each city allocation down to census tracts or zip 4 code centers. Census tracts are small, locally defined statistical areas in metropolitan areas and some other counties. They generally have stable boundaries and a population of about 4,000. zip 4 code centers (which were designed by the U.S. Post Office) are a little larger than neighborhoods. Data on population size, median family income, and other characteristics are available for these geographical units. Marketers have found these data extremely useful for identifying high-potential retail areas within large cities or for buying mailing lists to use in direct-mail campaigns. Industry Sales and Market Shares Besides estimating total potential and area potential, a company needs to know the actual industry sales taking place in its market. This means identifying its competitors and estimating their sales. The industry’s trade association will often collect and publish total industry sales, although it usually does not list individual company sales separately. Using this information, each company can evaluate its performance against the whole industry. Suppose a company’s sales are increasing 5 percent a year, and industry sales are increasing 10 percent. This company is actually losing its relative standing in the industry. Another way to estimate sales is to buy reports from a marketing research firm that audits total sales and brand sales. For example, Nielsen Media Research audits retail sales in various product categories in supermarkets and drugstores and sells this information to interested companies. These audits can give a company valuable information about its total product-category sales as well as brand sales. It can compare its performance to the total industry and/or any particular competitor to see whether it is gaining or losing share. Business-goods marketers typically have a harder time estimating industry sales and market shares than consumer-goods manufacturers do. Business marketers have no Nielsens to rely on. Distributors typically will not supply information about how much of competitors’ products they are selling. Business-goods marketers therefore operate with less knowledge of their market-share results. ESTIMATING FUTURE DEMAND We are now ready to examine methods of estimating future demand. Very few products or services lend themselves to easy forecasting. Those that do generally involve Gathering Information and Measuring Market Demand 125
Slide 73: a product whose absolute level or trend is fairly constant and where competition is nonexistent (public utilities) or stable (pure oligopolies). In most markets, total demand and company demand are not stable. Good forecasting becomes a key factor in company success. The more unstable the demand, the more critical is forecast accuracy, and the more elaborate is forecasting procedure. Companies commonly use a three-stage procedure to prepare a sales forecast. They prepare a macroeconomic forecast first, followed by an industry forecast, followed by a company sales forecast. The macroeconomic forecast calls for projecting inflation, unemployment, interest rates, consumer spending, business investment, government expenditures, net exports, and other variables. The end result is a forecast of gross national product, which is then used, along with other environmental indicators, to forecast industry sales. The company derives its sales forecast by assuming that it will win a certain market share. How do firms develop their forecasts? Firms may do it internally or buy forecasts from outside sources such as: ■ ■ Marketing research firms, which develop a forecast by interviewing customers, distributors, and other knowledgeable parties. Specialized forecasting firms, which produce long-range forecasts of particular macroenvironmental components, such as population, natural resources, and technology. Some examples are Data Resources, Wharton Econometric, and Chase Econometric. Futurist research firms, which produce speculative scenarios. Some examples are the Hudson Institute, the Futures Group, and the Institute for the Future. ■ All forecasts are built on one of three information bases: what people say, what people do, or what people have done. The first basis—what people say—involves surveying the opinions of buyers or those close to them, such as salespeople or outside experts. It encompasses three methods: surveys of buyer’s intentions, composites of sales force opinions, and expert opinion. Building a forecast on what people do involves another method, putting the product into a test market to measure buyer response. The final basis—what people have done—involves analyzing records of past buying behavior or using time-series analysis or statistical demand analysis. Survey of Buyers’ Intentions Forecasting is the art of anticipating what buyers are likely to do under a given set of conditions. Because buyer behavior is so important, buyers should be surveyed. In regard to major consumer durables (for example, major appliances), several research organizations conduct periodic surveys of consumer buying intentions. These organizations ask questions like the following: Do you intend to buy an automobile within the next six months? 0.00 No chance 0.20 Slight possibility 0.40 Fair possibility 0.60 Good possibility 0.80 1.00 Certain High probability This is called a purchase probability scale. The various surveys also inquire into consumer’s present and future personal finances and their expectations about the economy. The various bits of information are then combined into a consumer sentiment measure (Survey Research Center of the University of Michigan) or a consumer confidence measure (Sindlinger and Company). Consumer durable-goods producers subscribe to these indexes in the hope of anticipating major shifts in consumer buying intentions so that they can adjust their production and marketing plans accordingly. Some surveys measuring purchase probability are geared toward getting feedback on specific new products before they are released in the marketplace: Analyzing Marketing Opportunities ■ 126 AcuPOLL Cincinnati-based AcuPOLL is one of the nation’s biggest screeners of new products. In 1997 it sifted through more than 25,000 new items,
Slide 74: picking 400 of the most innovative to test on 100 nationally representative primary grocery store shoppers. The consumers see a photo and brief description and are asked (1) whether they would buy the product and (2) whether they think it is new and different. Products deemed both unique and “buys” are dubbed “pure gold.” Products that are just unique but not desired by consumers are dubbed “fool’s gold.” AcuPOLL’s pure gold list in 1997 included “Hair-off Mittens” to remove hair from women’s legs easily, Uncle Ben’s Calcium Plus rice, and Shout Wipes stain treater towelettes. Fool’s gold products included Juiced OJ (PLUS) Caffeine, a potent cocktail of caffeinelaced orange juice; Lumident ChewBrush, a toothbrush that can be chewed like gum; and Back to Basics, a “microbrewed” beer shampoo that starts with malted barley so you can put a “head” on your head.37 For business buying, various agencies carry out buyer-intention surveys regarding plant, equipment, and materials. The better-known agencies are McGraw-Hill Research and Opinion Research Corporation. Their estimates tend to fall within a 10 percent error band of the actual outcomes. Buyer-intention surveys are particularly useful in estimating demand for industrial products, consumer durables, product purchases where advanced planning is required, and new products. The value of a buyer-intention survey increases to the extent that the cost of reaching buyers is small, the buyers are few, they have clear intentions, they implement their intentions, and they willingly disclose their intentions. Composite of Sales Force Opinions Where buyer interviewing is impractical, the company may ask its sales representatives to estimate their future sales. Each sales representative estimates how much each current and prospective customer will buy of each of the company’s products. Few companies use their sales force’s estimates without making some adjustments. Sales representatives might be pessimistic or optimistic, or they might go from one extreme to another because of a recent setback or success. Furthermore, they are often unaware of larger economic developments and do not know how their company’s marketing plans will influence future sales in their territory. They might deliberately underestimate demand so that the company will set a low sales quota. Or they might lack the time to prepare careful estimates or might not consider the effort worthwhile. To encourage better estimating, the company could supply certain aids or incentives to the sales force. For example, sales reps might receive a record of their past forecasts compared with their actual sales and also a description of company assumptions on the business outlook, competitor behavior, and marketing plans. Involving the sales force in forecasting brings a number of benefits. Sales reps might have better insight into developing trends than any other single group. After participating in the forecasting process, sales reps might have greater confidence in their sales quotas and more incentive to achieve them.38 Also, a “grassroots” forecasting procedure provides very detailed estimates broken down by product, territory, customer, and sales reps. Expert Opinion Companies can also obtain forecasts from experts, including dealers, distributors, suppliers, marketing consultants, and trade associations. Large appliance companies survey dealers periodically for their forecasts of short-term demand, as do car companies. Dealer estimates are subject to the same strengths and weaknesses as sales force estimates. Many companies buy economic and industry forecasts from well-known economic-forecasting firms. These specialists are able to prepare better economic forecasts than the company because they have more data available and more forecasting expertise. Occasionally companies will invite a group of experts to prepare a forecast. The experts exchange views and produce a group estimate (group-discussion methods). Or the experts supply their estimates individually, and an analyst combines them into a single estimate (pooling of individual estimates). Alternatively, the experts supply individual estimates and assumptions that are reviewed by the company, then revised. Further rounds of estimating and refining follow (Delphi method).39 Gathering Information and Measuring Market Demand 127
Slide 75: Past-Sales Analysis Sales forecasts can be developed on the basis of past sales. Time-series analysis consists of breaking down past time series into four components (trend, cycle, seasonal, and erratic) and projecting these components into the future. Exponential smoothing consists of projecting the next period’s sales by combining an average of past sales and the most recent sales, giving more weight to the latter. Statistical demand analysis consists of measuring the impact level of each of a set of causal factors (e.g., income, marketing expenditures, price) on the sales level. Finally, econometric analysis consists of building sets of equations that describe a system and proceeding to fit the parameters statistically. Market-Test Method Where buyers do not plan their purchases carefully or experts are not available or reliable, a direct market test is desirable. A direct market test is especially desirable in forecasting new-product sales or established product sales in a new distribution channel or territory. SUMMARY 1. Three developments make the need for marketing information greater now than at any time in the past: the rise of global marketing, the new emphasis on buyers’ wants, and the trend toward nonprice competition. 2. To carry out their analysis, planning, implementation, and control responsibilities, marketing managers need a marketing information system (MIS). The MIS’s role is to assess the managers’ information needs, develop the needed information, and distribute that information in a timely manner. 3. An MIS has four components: (a) an internal records system, which includes information on the order-to-payment cycle and sales reporting systems; (b) a marketing intelligence system, a set of procedures and sources used by managers to obtain everyday information about pertinent developments in the marketing environment; (c) a marketing research system that allows for the systematic design, collection, analysis, and reporting of data and findings relevant to a specific marketing situation; and (d) a computerized marketing decision support system that helps managers interpret relevant information and turn it into a basis for marketing action. 4. Companies can conduct their own marketing research or hire other companies to do it for them. Good marketing research is characterized by the scientific method, creativity, multiple research methods, accurate model building, cost–benefit analysis, healthy skepticism, and an ethical focus. 5. The process consists of defining the problem and research objective, developing the research plan, collecting the information, analyzing the information, and presenting the findings to management. In conducting research, firms must decide whether to collect their own data or use data that already exist. They must also decide which research approach (observational, focus-group, survey, behavioral data, or experimental) and which research instrument (questionnaire or mechanical instruments) to use. In addition, they must decide on a sampling plan and contact methods. 6. One major reason for undertaking marketing research is to discover market opportunities. Once the research is complete, the company must carefully evaluate its opportunities and decide which markets to enter. Once in the market, it must prepare sales forecasts based on estimates of demand. 7. There are two types of demand: market demand and company demand. To estimate current demand, companies attempt to determine total market potential, area market potential, industry sales, and market share. To estimate future demand, companies survey buyers’ intentions, solicit their sales force’s input, gather expert opinions, or engage in market testing. Mathematical models, advanced statistical techniques, and computerized data collection procedures are essential to all types of demand and sales forecasting. 128 Analyzing Marketing Opportunities
Slide 76: APPLICATIONS CONCEPTS 1. Each of the following questions appears on a paper questionnaire that respondents fill out and return to a research firm. Rephrase or reformat each question so that the respondent is more likely to provide the research firm with the information it needs. a. Which brand do you like best? b. Can you tell me how many children you have, whether they are girls or boys, and how old they are? c. How much say do you have regarding the charities that your church contributes to? d. With what frequency have you experienced this phenomenon of late? e. Are auto manufacturers making satisfactory progress in controlling auto emissions? 2. Levi Strauss’s marketing team has determined that the men who buy Levi’s jeans fall into five categories: ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Utilitarian jeans customer: The Levi loyalist who wears jeans for work and play Trendy casual: High-fashion customers who come to life at night Price shopper: Buys on the basis of price at department stores and discount stores Mainstream traditionalist: Over 45 years old and shops in a department store accompanied by his wife Classic independent: Independent buyer, shops alone in specialty stores, and wants clothes that make him “look right” (the target in this case) The marketing team wants to develop a product for the “classic independent” segment. Should the Levi name be used on the new product? Can this product be marketed successfully through Levi’s current channels of distribution? What kinds of formal market research should the company conduct to help it make a sound decision on whether to pursue this segment and how? 3. Suggest creative ways to help companies research the following issues: a. A liquor company needs to estimate liquor consumption in a legally dry town. b. A magazine distribution house wants to know how many people read a specific magazine in doctors’ offices. c. A men’s hair tonic producer wants to know at least four alternative ways to research how men use its products. 4. A children’s toy manufacturer is developing its sales forecast for next year. The company’s forecaster has estimated sales for six different environment/strategy combinations (see Table 1.9). TABLE Sales Forecasts 1.9 High Marketing Budget Recession Normal 15 20 Medium Marketing Budget 12 16 Low Marketing Budget 10 14 Gathering Information and Measuring Market Demand The forecaster believes that there is an 0.20 probability of recession and an 0.80 probability of normal times. He also believes the probabilities of a high, medium, 129
Slide 77: and low company market budget are 0.30, 0.50, and 0.20, respectively. How might the forecaster arrive at a single-point sales forecast? What assumptions are being made? 130 Analyzing Marketing Opportunities
Slide 78: NOTES 1. See James C. Anderson and James A. Narus, Business Market Management: Understanding, Creating and Delivering Value (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1998), Chap. 2. 2. John Koten, “You Aren’t Paranoid if You Feel Someone Eyes You Constantly,” Wall Street Journal, March 29, 1985, pp. 1, 22; “Offbeat Marketing,” Sales & Marketing Management, January 1990, p. 35; and Erik Larson, “Attention Shoppers: Don’t Look Now but You Are Being Tailed,” Smithsonian Magazine, January 1993, pp. 70–79. 3. From Consumer Europe 1993, a publication of Euromonitor, pnc. London: Tel 4471 251 8021; U.S. offices: (312) 541- Gathering Information and Measuring Market Demand 131
Slide 79: 132 Analyzing Marketing Opportunities 8024. 4. Donna DeEulio, “Should Catalogers Travel the EDI Highway?” Catalog Age 11, no. 2 (February 1994): 99. 5. John W. Verity, “Taking a Laptop on a Call,” Business Week, October 25, 1993, pp. 124–25. 6. Stannie Holt, “Sales-Force Automation Ramps Up,” InfoWorld, March 23, 1998, pp. 29, 38. 7. James A. Narus and James C. Anderson, “Turn Your Industrial Distributors into Partners,” Harvard Business Review, March–April 1986, pp. 66–71. 8. Kevin Helliker, “Smile: That Cranky Shopper May Be a Store Spy,” Wall Street Journal, November 30, 1994, pp. B1, B6. 9. Don Peppers, “How You Can Help Them,” Fast Company, October–November 1997, pp. 128–36. 10. See 1994 Survey of Market Research, eds. Thomas Kinnear and Ann Root (Chicago: American Marketing Association, 1994). 11. See William R. BonDurant, “Research: The ‘HP Way,’” Marketing Research, June 1992, pp. 28–33. 12. Kevin J. Clancy and Robert S. Shulman, Marketing Myths That Are Killing Business, (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1994), p. 58; Phaedra Hise, “Comprehensive CompuServe,” Inc., June 1994, p. 109; “Business Bulletin: Studying the Competition,” Wall Street Journal, p. A1.5. 13. For a discussion of the decision-theory approach to the value of research, see Donald R. Lehmann, Sunil Gupta, and Joel Steckel, Market Research (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1997). 14. For an excellent annotated reference to major secondary sources of business and marketing data, see Gilbert A. Churchill Jr., Marketing Research: Methodological Foundations, 6th ed. (Fort Worth, TX: Dryden, 1995). 15. Thomas L. Greenbaum, The Handbook for Focus Group Research (New York: Lexington Books, 1993). 16. Sarah Schafer, “Communications: Getting a Line on Customers,” Inc. Tech (1996), p. 102; see also Alexia Parks, “OnLine Focus Groups Reshape Market Research Industry,” Marketing News, May 12, l997, p. 28. 17. Roger D. Blackwell, James S. Hensel, Michael B. Phillips, and Brian Sternthal, Laboratory Equipment for Marketing Research (Dubuque, IA: Kendall/Hunt, 1970); and Wally Wood, “The Race to Replace Memory,” Marketing and Media Decisions, July 1986, pp. 166–67. See also Gerald Zaltman, “Rethinking Market Research: Putting People Back In,” Journal 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. of Marketing Research 34, no. 4 (November 1997): 424–37. Chris Serb, “If You Liked the Food, Press 1,” Hospitals and Health Networks, April 5, 1997, p. 99. G. K. Sharman, “Sessions Challenge Status Quo,” Marketing News, November 10, 1997, p. 18; “Prepaid Phone Cards Are Revolutionizing Market Research Techniques,” Direct Marketing, March l998, p. 12. Selwyn Feinstein, “Computers Replacing Interviewers for Personnel and Marketing Tasks,” Wall Street Journal, October 9, 1986, p. 35. For further reading, see Joanne Lipman, “Single-Source Ad Research Heralds Detailed Look at Household Habits,” Wall Street Journal, February 16, 1988, p. 39; Joe Schwartz, “Back to the Source,” American Demographics, January 1989, pp. 22–26; and Magid H. Abraham and Leonard M. Lodish, “Getting the Most Out of Advertising and Promotions,” Harvard Business Review, May–June 1990, pp. 50–60. John D. C. Little, “Decision Support Systems for Marketing Managers,” Journal of Marketing, Summer 1979, p. 11. Gary L. Lilien and Arvind Rangaswamy, Marketing Engineering: Computer-Assisted Marketing Analysis and Planning (Reading, MA: Addison Wesley, 1998). John D. C. Little, “BRANDAID: A Marketing Mix Model, Part I: Structure; Part II: Implementation,” Operations Research 23 (1975): 628–73. Leonard M. Lodish, “CALLPLAN: An Interactive Salesman’s Call Planning System,” Management Science, December 1971, pp. 25–40. David B. Montgomery, Alvin J. Silk, and C. E. Zaragoza, “A Multiple-Product Sales-Force Allocation Model,” Management Science, December 1971, pp. 3–24. S. W. Hess and S. A. Samuels, “Experiences with a Sales Districting Model: Criteria and Implementation,” Management Science, December 1971, pp. 41–54. John D. C. Little and Leonard M. Lodish, “A Media Planning Calculus,” Operations Research, January–February 1969, pp. 1–35. Magid M. Abraham and Leonard M. Lodish, “PROMOTER: An Automated Promotion Evaluation System,” Marketing Science, Spring 1987, pp. 101–23. Raymond R. Burke, Arvind Rangaswamy, Jerry Wind, and Jehoshua Eliashberg, “A Knowledge-Based System for Advertising Design,” Marketing Science 9, no. 3 (1990): 212–29. John D. C. Little, “Cover Story: An Expert System to Find the News in Scanner
Slide 80: 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. Data,” Sloan School, MIT Working Paper, 1988. Robert Berner, “Image Ads Catch the Imagination of Dayton Hudson’s Target Unit,” Wall Street Journal, October 3, 1997, p. B5. For further discussion, see Gary L. Lilien, Philip Kotler, and K. Sridhar Moorthy, Marketing Models (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1992). See Russell L. Ackoff, A Concept of Corporate Planning (New York: Wiley-Interscience, 1970), pp. 36–37. For more information on NAICS, check the U.S. Bureau of the Census Web site, www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html. For suggested strategies related to the market area’s BDI standing, see Don E. Schultz, Dennis Martin, and William P. Brown, Strategic Advertising Campaigns (Chicago: Crain Books, 1984), p. 338. 37. Jeff Harrington, “Juiced-Up Orange Juice? Yuck, Buyers Say: Today AcuPOLL releases 10 Best and Six Worst New Products of ’97,” Detroit News, December 7, 1997, p. D3. 38. See Jacob Gonik, “Tie Salesmen’s Bonuses to Their Forecasts,” Harvard Business Review, May–June 1978, pp. 116–23. 39. See Norman Dalkey and Olaf Helmer, “An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts,” Management Science, April 1963, pp. 458–67. Also see Roger J. Best, “An Experiment in Delphi Estimation in Marketing Decision Making,” Journal of Marketing Research, November 1974, pp. Gathering Information and Measuring Market Demand 133
Slide 81: SECTION TWO
Slide 82: Scanning the Marketing Environment We focus on two questions: tahW er ht k e y sdoht m r f tracking d ientfyg oprseit nu eht -noriv cam ?tnem tahW er ht k e y , cihpargom d , cimon e ,larut n -igol nhce t cal, politca, and cultr e-dv ?stnempo ■ ■ Today you have to run faster to stay in the same place.
Slide 83: S ■ uccessful companies take an outside-inside view of their business. They recognize that the marketing environment is constantly spinning new opportunities and threats and understand the importance of continuously monitoring and adapting to that envi- ronment. One company that has continually reinvented one of its brands to keep up with the changing marketing environment is Mattel with its Barbie doll:1 Mattel Mattel’s genius is in keeping its Barbie doll both timeless and trendy. Since Barbie’s creation in 1959, the doll has filled a fundamental need that all girls share: to play a grown-up. Yet Barbie has changed as girls’ dreams have changed. Her aspirations have evolved from jobs like “stewardess,” “fashion model,” and “nurse,” to “astronaut,” “rock singer,” and “presidential candidate.” Mattel introduces new Barbie dolls every year in order to keep up with the latest definitions of achievement, glamour, romance, adventure, and nurturing. Barbie also reflects America’s diverse population. Mattel has produced African American Barbie dolls since 1968— the time of the civil rights movement—and the company has introduced Hispanic and Asian dolls as well. In recent years, Mattel has introduced the Crystal Barbie doll (a gorgeous glamour doll), Puerto Rican Barbie (part of its “dolls of the world” collection), Great Shape Barbie (to tie into the fitness craze), Flight Time Barbie (a pilot), and Troll and Baywatch Barbies (to tie into kids’ fads and TV shows). Industry analysts estimate that two Barbie dolls are sold every second and that the average American girl owns eight versions of Barbie. Every year since 1993, sales of the perky plastic doll have exceeded $1 billion. Many companies fail to see change as opportunity. They ignore or resist changes un- til it is too late. Their strategies, structures, systems, and organizational culture grow increasingly obsolete and dysfunctional. Corporations as mighty as General Motors, IBM, and Sears have passed through difficult times because they ignored macroenvironmental changes too long. The major responsibility for identifying significant marketplace changes falls to the company’s marketers. More than any other group in the company, they must be the trend trackers and opportunity seekers. Although every manager in an organization needs to observe the outside environment, marketers have two advantages: They have disciplined methods—marketing intelligence and marketing research—for collecting information about the marketing environment. They also spend more time with customers and more time watching competitors. We examine the firm’s external environment —the macroenvironment forces that affect it, its consumer markets, its business markets, and its competitors. Successful companies recognize and respond profitably to unmet needs and trends. Companies could make a fortune if they could solve any of these problems: a cure for cancer, chemical cures for mental diseases, desalinization of seawater, nonfattening tasty nutritious food, practical electric cars, and affordable housing. Enterprising individuals and companies manage to create new solutions to unmet needs. Club Mediterranee emerged to meet the needs of single people for exotic vacations; the Walkman and CD Man were created for active people who wanted to listen to music; Nautilus was created for men and women who wanted to tone their bodies; Federal Express was created to meet the need for next-day mail delivery. Many opportunities are found by identifying trends. Analyzing Marketing Opportunities ■ A NALYZING NEEDS AND TRENDS IN THE MACROENVIRONMENT A trend is a direction or sequence of events that have some momentum and durability. 136
Slide 84: One major trend is the increasing participation of women in the workforce, which has spawned the child day-care business, increased consumption of microwavable foods, and office-oriented women’s clothing. ■ Simplex Knowledge More and more workplaces and child-care centers are installing monitoring setups such as the “I See You” equipment from Simplex Knowledge in White Plains, New York. Not created to monitor child-care providers, the system allows parents to see their children at different points throughout the day. Via still photos taken by a camera in the child-care center and posted on a secure Web site on the Internet, working parents who long to spend more time with their young ones get reassuring glimpses throughout the day.2 Shops at Somerset Square Although shopping malls are in decline, there’s been a boom in niche malls that cater to the needs of working women. Shops at Somerset Square in Glastonbury, Connecticut, is one such open-air shopping center. It features a customized retail mix of specialty shops, targeted promotions, and phone-in shopping, in which shoppers phone ahead with sizes and color preferences while store employees perform a “wardrobing” service. Many of the stores also informally extend hours for working women who find time to shop only before or after work.3 ■ We can draw distinctions among fads, trends, and megatrends. A fad is “unpredictable, short-lived, and without social, economic, and political significance.”4 A company can cash in on a fad such as Pet Rocks or Cabbage Patch dolls, but this is more a matter of luck and good timing than anything else. Trends are more predictable and durable. A trend reveals the shape of the future. According to futurist Faith Popcorn, a trend has longevity, is observable across several market areas and consumer activities, and is consistent with other significant indicators occurring or emerging at the same time.5 (See the Marketing Insight “Faith Popcorn Points to 16 Trends in the Economy.”) John Naisbitt, another futurist, prefers to talk about megatrends, which are “large social, economic, political and technological changes [that] are slow to form, and once in place, they influence us for some time—between seven and ten years, or longer.”6 Naisbitt and his staff spot megatrends by counting the number of times hard-news items on different topics appear in major newspapers. The 10 megatrends Naisbitt has identified are: 1. The booming global economy 2. A renaissance in the arts 3. The emergence of free-market socialism 4. Global lifestyles and cultural nationalism 5. The privatization of the welfare state 6. The rise of the Pacific Rim 7. The decade of women in leadership 8. The age of biology 9. The religious revival of the new millennium 10. The triumph of the individual Trends and megatrends merit marketers’ close attention. A new product or marketing program is likely to be more successful if it is in line with strong trends rather than opposed to them. But detecting a new market opportunity does not guarantee its success, even if it is technically feasible. For example, today some companies have created portable “electronic books” in which different book disks can be inserted for reading. But there may not be a sufficient number of people interested in reading a book on a computer screen or willing to pay the required price. This is why market research is necessary to determine an opportunity’s profit potential. Scanning the Marketing Environment 137
Slide 85: M A R K E T I N G 5. Cocooning: The impulse to stay inside when the going outside gets too tough and scary. People are turning their homes into nests: redecorating, watching TV and rental Famous trend-watcher Faith Popcorn runs BrainReserve, a market- ordering from catalogs, and using answering mamovies, ing consulting firm that monitors cultural trends and advises chines to filter out the outside world. Socialized cocoons companies such as AT&T, Black & Decker, Hoffman-LaRoche, Nissan,inside for conversation or a salon. Wandering cogather Rubbermaid, and many more. Popcorn and her associates have are people who hole up in their cars with take-out coons identified 16 major cultural trends affecting the U.S.economy.How foods and their car phones. many of these trends have you noticed in your own life? 6. Down-aging: The tendency for older people to act and feel Faith Popcorn Points to 16 Trends in the Economy I NSIGHT 1. Anchoring: The tendency to use ancient practices as anchors or support for modern lifestyles. This trend explains the widespread popularity of aromatherapy, meditation, yoga, and Eastern religions. 2. Being alive: The desire to lead longer and more enjoyable lives. Vegetarianism, low-tech medicine, meditation, and other life extenders and enhancers are part of this trend. Marketers can capitalize on the trend by designing healthier products and services. 3. Cashing out: The desire for a simpler, less hectic lifestyle, as when an executive suddenly quits a high-profile career, escapes the hassles of big-city life, and turns up in Vermont running a bed-and-breakfast.The trend is marked by a nostalgic return to small-town values. 4. Clanning: The growing need to join up with and belong to groups in order to confront a more chaotic world. Marketers are responding with products, services, and programs that help make consumers feel a part of something; for example, Harley-Davidson’s Harley Owners Group (HOG). younger than their age. They spend more on youthful clothes and hair coloring, and they engage in more playful behavior, such as buying adult toys, attending adult camps, or signing up for adventure vacations. 7. Egonomics: The wish to individualize oneself through possessions and experience. Egonomics gives marketers an opportunity to succeed by offering customized goods, services, and experiences. 8. Fantasy adventure: The need to find emotional escapes to offset daily routines. People following this trend seek safari vacations or eat exotic foods. For marketers, this is an opportunity to create fantasy products and services.The trend will certainly feed the growth of virtual reality throughout the first decade of the new millennium. 9. Female think: The recognition that men and women act and think differently.A strong indicator of female think is the popularity of books such as Men Are from Mars, Women Are from Venus. Because relationships are powerful motivators for women,for example,Saturn Car Company has created strong relationships with its customers, many of whom are women. (continued) I DENTIFYING AND RESPONDING TO THE MAJOR MACROENVIRONMENT FORCES Companies and their suppliers, marketing intermediaries, customers, competitors, and publics all operate in a macroenvironment of forces and trends that shape opportunities and pose threats. These forces represent “noncontrollables,” which the company must monitor and respond to. In the economic arena, companies and consumers are increasingly affected by global forces. These include: ■ The substantial speedup of international transportation, communication, and financial transactions, leading to the rapid growth of world trade and investment, especially tripolar trade (North America, Western Europe, Far East). The rising economic power of several Asian countries in world markets. The rise of trade blocs such as the European Union and the NAFTA signatories. The severe debt problems of a number of countries, along with the increasing fragility of the international financial system. The increasing use of barter and countertrade to support international transactions. The move toward market economies in formerly socialist countries along with rapid privatization of publicly owned companies. The rapid dissemination of global lifestyles. ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ 138 Analyzing Marketing Opportunities
Slide 86: 10. Icon toppling: The idea that if it’s big, it’s bad. Marketers are responding by finding ways to think, act, and look smaller. An example is Miller’s Plank Road Brewery beer, which has the look and feel of today’s popular microbrewery beverages. 11. Mancipation: The emancipation of men from stereotypical male roles. Men are no longer required to be macho, distant, and strong.This trend is revealed in ads featuring men as nurturing dads and concerned husbands. 12. 99 lives: The attempt to relieve time pressures by doing many things at once. People become adept at multitasking, doing many tasks at once,such as talking on a portable phone while surfing the Internet. Marketers can cash in on the 99 lives trend by creating cluster marketing enterprises—all-in-one service stops. 13. Pleasure revenge: The proud and public pursuit of pleasure as a rebellion against self-control and deprivation. Fed up with the health kick of the early 1990s, people are consuming more red meat, fats, and sugars and turning away from health-food alternatives. 14. S.O.S. (save our society): The desire to make society more socially responsible with respect to education, ethics, and the environment. The best response for marketers is to urge their own companies to practice more socially responsible marketing. 15. Small indulgences: A penchant to indulge in small-scale splurges to obtain an occasional emotional lift. A consumer Source: This summary is drawn from various pages of Faith Popcorn’s (New York: HarperCollins, 1996) might eat healthy all week, and then splurge on a pint of superpremium Hagen-Dazs ice cream on the weekend, or might brown bag it for lunch but buy an expensive Starbucks latte and pastries for breakfast. 16. The vigilant consumer: Intolerance for shoddy products and poor service. Vigilant consumers want companies to be more aware and responsive, so they act up, boycott, write letters, and buy green products. The Popcorn Report (New York: HarperBusiness, 1992) and Faith Popcorn and Lys Marigold, Clicking ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ The gradual opening of major new markets, namely China, India, eastern Europe, the Arab countries, and Latin America. The increasing tendency of multinationals to transcend their locational and national characteristics and become transnational firms. The increasing number of cross-border corporate strategic alliances—for example, MCI and British Telecom, and Texas Instruments and Hitachi. The increasing ethnic and religious conflicts in certain countries and regions. The growth of global brands in autos, food, clothing, electronics, and so on. Colgate-Palmolive Colgate-Palmolive test-marketed Total, its antibacterial plaque-fighting toothpaste, in six countries: the Philippines, Australia, Colombia, Greece, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. The team in charge of the global launch was a veritable corporate United Nations of operations, logistics, and marketing strategists. Their efforts paid off handsomely: Total was soon a $150 million brand worldwide, selling in 75 countries, with virtually identical packaging, positioning, and advertising (Figure 2-1).7 Scanning the Marketing Environment 139 Within the rapidly changing global picture, the firm must monitor six major forces: demographic, economic, natural, technological, political-legal, and social-cultural. Although these forces will be described separately, marketers must pay attention to their
Slide 87: causal interactions, because these set the stage for new opportunities as well as threats. For example, explosive population growth (demographic) leads to more resource depletion and pollution (natural environment), which leads consumers to call for more laws (political-legal). The restrictions stimulate new technological solutions and products (technology), which if they are affordable (economic forces) may actually change attitudes and behavior (social-cultural). DEMOGRAPHIC ENVIRONMENT The first macroenvironmental force that marketers monitor is population because people make up markets. Marketers are keenly interested in the size and growth rate of population in different cities, regions, and nations; age distribution and ethnic mix; educational levels; household patterns; and regional characteristics and movements. Worldwide Population Growth The world population is showing “explosive” growth. It totaled 5.4 billion in 1991 and is growing at 1.7 percent per year. At this rate, the world’s population will reach 6.2 billion by the year 2000.8 The world population explosion has been a source of major concern, for two reasons. The first is the fact that certain resources needed to support this much human life (fuel, foods, and minerals) are limited and may run out at some point. First published in 1972, The Limits to Growth presented an impressive array of evidence that unchecked population growth and consumption would eventually result in insufficient food supply, depletion of key minerals, overcrowding, pollution, and an overall deterioration in the quality of life.9 One of the study’s strong recommendations is the worldwide social marketing of family planning.10 The second cause for concern is that population growth is highest in countries and communities that can least afford it. The less developed regions of the world currently account for 76 percent of the world population and are growing at 2 percent per year, whereas the population in the more developed countries is growing at only 0.6 percent per year. In the developing countries, the death rate has been falling as a result of modern medicine, but the birthrate has remained fairly stable. Feeding, clothing, and educating their children while also providing a rising standard of living is nearly impossible in these countries. 140 Analyzing Marketing Opportunities
Slide 88: The explosive world population growth has major implications for business. A growing population does not mean growing markets unless these markets have sufficient purchasing power. Nonetheless, companies that carefully analyze their markets can find major opportunities. For example, to curb its skyrocketing population, the Chinese government has passed regulations limiting families to one child per family. Toy marketers, in particular, are paying attention to one consequence of these regulations: These children are spoiled and fussed over as never before. Known in China as “little emperors,” Chinese children are being showered with everything from candy to computers as a result of what’s known as the “six pocket syndrome.” As many as six adults—parents, grandparents, great-grandparents, and aunts and uncles—may be indulging the whims of each child. This trend has encouraged such companies as Japan’s Bandai Company (famous for its Mighty Morphin’ Power Rangers), Denmark’s Lego Group, and Mattel to enter the Chinese market.11 MARKETING memo Tapping into the Internet Generation Net-Gens already influence adult purchases more than any preceding generation. The Alliance for Converging Technologies estimates that American preteens and teens spend $130 billion of their own dollars annually and influence upward of $500 billion of their parents’spending.How do you market to this group? Don Tapscott, author of Growing Up Digital:The Rise of the Net Generation (www.growingupdigital.com), advises marketers to keep five things in mind: 1. Options are a must—choice is one of their most deeply held values. 2. Customize to meet their needs. These are the kids who build their own levels in video games and write their own Web pages, and they want things their way. 3. Let them have the option of changing their minds. They’re growing up in a world where fixing mistakes takes a stroke of the mouse, and they believe that changing their minds should be equally painless. 4. Let them try before they buy. They’re users and doers.They reject expert opinions in favor of forming their own. 5. Never forget that they will choose function over form.“Unlike baby boomers, who witnessed the technological revolution,”Tapscott says,“N-Geners have no awe of new technology. They have grown up with computers and treat them like any other household appliance. This is an audience that cares about what the technology will do, not the technology itself.” Source: Excerpted from Lisa Krakowka,“In the Net,” American Demographics, August 1998, p. 56. Population Age Mix National populations vary in their age mix. At one extreme is Mexico, a country with a very young population and rapid population growth. At the other extreme is Japan, a country with one of the world’s oldest populations. Milk, diapers, school supplies, and toys would be important products in Mexico. Japan’s population would consume many more adult products. A population can be subdivided into six age groups: preschool, school-age children, teens, young adults age 25 to 40, middle-aged adults age 40 to 65, and older adults age 65 and up. For marketers, the most populous age groups shape the marketing environment. In the United States, the “baby boomers,” the 78 million people born between 1946 and 1964, are one of the most powerful forces shaping the marketplace. Baby boomers are fixated on their youth, not their age, and ads geared to them tend to capitalize on nostalgia for their past, such as those for the newly redesigned Volkswagen Beetle or the Mercedes-Benz ad featuring the rock music of Janis Joplin. Boomers grew up with TV advertising, so they are an easier market to reach than the 45 million born between 1965 and 1976, dubbed Generation X (and also the shadow generation, twentysomethings, and baby busters). Gen-Xers are typically cynical about hard-sell marketing pitches that promise more than they can deliver. Ads created to woo this market often puzzle older people, because they often don’t seem to “sell” at all:12 ■ Miller Brewing Company Instead of the usual macho men, scantily clad women, beauty shots of beer and mountain vistas, Miller’s new beer ads targeted to 21- to 27-year-olds feature the on-screen legend “It’s time to embrace your inner idiot” and images of a frenetic, sloppy hot-dog eating contest.13 Diesel Jeans Diesel jeans ads revolve around a celebration of the bizarre, and they playfully poke fun at mainstream situations. Called “Reasons for Living,” the ads reverse our code of ethics with images like one of humans serving a roasted girl to pigs sitting at a dining table laden with exotic foods.14 ■ Finally, both baby boomers and Gen-Xers will be passing the torch to the latest demographic group, the baby boomlet, born between 1977 and 1994. Now numbering 72 million, this group is almost equal in size to baby boomers. One distinguishing characteristic of this age group is their utter fluency and comfort with computer and Internet technology. Douglas Tapscott has christened them Net-Gens for this reason. He says: “To them, digital technology is no more intimidating than a VCR or a toaster.” See the Marketing Memo “Tapping into the Internet Generation.”15 But do marketers have to create separate ads for each generation? J. Walker Smith, co-author of Rocking the Ages: The Yankelovich Report on Generational Marketing, says that marketers do have to be careful about turning off one generation each time they craft a message that appeals effectively to another. “I think the idea is to try to be broadly inclusive and at the same time offer each generation something specifically designed for it. Tommy Hilfiger has big brand logos on his clothes for teenagers and little pocket polo logos on his shirts for baby boomers. It’s a brand that has a more inclusive than exclusive strategy.”16 Scanning the Marketing Environment 141
Slide 89: Ethnic Markets Countries also vary in ethnic and racial makeup. At one extreme is Japan, where almost everyone is Japanese; at the other is the United States, where people from come virtually all nations. The United States was originally called a “melting pot,” but there are increasing signs that the melting didn’t occur. Now people call the United States a “salad bowl” society with ethnic groups maintaining their ethnic differences, neighborhoods, and cultures. The U.S. population (267 million in 1997) is 73 percent white. African Americans constitute another 13 percent, and Latinos another 10 percent. The Latino population has been growing fast, with the largest subgroups of Mexican (5.4 percent), Puerto Rican (1.1 percent), and Cuban (0.4 percent) descent. Asian Americans constitute 3.4 percent of the U.S. population, with the Chinese constituting the largest group, followed by the Filipinos, Japanese, Asian Indians, and Koreans, in that order. Latino and Asian American consumers are concentrated in the far western and southern parts of the country, although some dispersal is taking place. Moreover, there are nearly 25 million people living in the United States—more than 9 percent of the population—who were born in another country. Each group has certain specific wants and buying habits. Several food, clothing, and furniture companies have directed their products and promotions to one or more of these groups.17 For instance, Sears is taking note of the preferences of different ethnic groups: ■ Sears If a Sears, Roebuck and Company store has a shopping base that is at least 20 percent Latino, it is designated as a Hispanic store for the purpose of Sears’s Hispanic marketing program. More than 130 stores in southern California, Texas, Florida, and New York have earned this label. “We make a special effort to staff those stores with bilingual sales personnel, to use bilingual signage, and to support community programs,” says a Sears spokesperson. Choosing merchandise for the Latino marketplace is primarily a color and size issue. “What we find in Hispanic communities is that people tend to be smaller than the general market, and that there is a greater demand for special-occasion clothing and a preference for bright colors. In hardlines, there isn’t much difference from the mainstream market.” 142 Analyzing Marketing Opportunities
Slide 90: Yet marketers must be careful not to overgeneralize about ethnic groups. Within each ethnic group are consumers who are as different from each other as they are from Americans of European background. “There is really no such thing as an Asian market,” says Greg Macabenta, whose ethnic advertising agency specializes in the Filipino market. Macabenta emphasizes that the five major Asian American groups have their own very specific market characteristics, speak different languages, consume different cuisines, practice different religions, and represent very distinct national cultures.18 Educational Groups The population in any society falls into five educational groups: illiterates, high school dropouts, high school degrees, college degrees, and professional degrees. In Japan, 99 percent of the population is literate, whereas in the United States 10 percent to 15 percent of the population may be functionally illiterate. However, the United States has one of the world’s highest percentages of college-educated citizenry, around 36 percent. The high number of educated people in the United States spells a high demand for quality books, magazines, and travel. Household Patterns The “traditional household” consists of a husband, wife, and children (and sometimes grandparents). Yet, in the United States today, one out of eight households are “diverse” or “nontraditional,” and include single live-alones, adult live-togethers of one or both sexes, single-parent families, childless married couples, and empty nesters. More people are divorcing or separating, choosing not to marry, marrying later, or marrying without the intention to have children. Each group has a distinctive set of needs and buying habits. For example, people in the SSWD group (single, separated, widowed, divorced) need smaller apartments; inexpensive and smaller appliances, furniture, and furnishings; and food packaged in smaller sizes. Marketers must increasingly consider the special needs of nontraditional households, because they are now growing more rapidly than traditional households. The gay market, in particular, is a lucrative one. A 1997 Simmons Market Research study of readers of the National Gay Newspaper Guild’s 12 publications found that, compared to the average American, respondents are 11.7 times more likely to be in professional jobs, almost twice as likely to own a vacation home, eight times more likely to own a computer notebook, and twice as likely to own individual stocks.19 Insurance companies and financial services companies are now waking up to the needs and potential of not only the gay market but also the nontraditional household market as a whole: ■ American Express Financial Advisors, Inc. Minneapolis-based American Express Financial Advisors, Inc., launched print ads that depict same-sex couples planning their financial futures. The ads ran in Out and The Advocate, the two highest-circulation national gay publications. The company’s director of segment marketing, Margaret Vergeyle, said: “We’re targeting gay audiences with targeted ads and promotions that are relevant to them and say that we understand their specific needs. Often, gay couples are very concerned about issues like Social Security benefits and estate planning, since same-sex marriages often are not recognized under the law.”20 John Hancock Mutual Life Insurance Company The John Hancock Mutual Insurance Company has been focusing on single parents and working women with two series of ads on cable television channels. The company is focusing on a very specific segment of women whose financial needs happen to be even more critical because of their situation. The slogan for the ads: “Insurance for the unexpected. Investments for the opportunities.”21 ■ Geographical Shifts in Population This is a period of great migratory movements between and within countries. Since the collapse of Soviet eastern Europe, nationalities are reasserting themselves and forming independent countries. The new countries are making certain ethnic groups Scanning the Marketing Environment 143
Slide 91: unwelcome (such as Russians in Latvia or Muslims in Serbia), and many of these groups are migrating to safer areas. As foreign groups enter other countries for political sanctuary, some local groups start protesting. In the United States, there has been opposition to the influx of immigrants from Mexico, the Caribbean, and certain Asian nations. Yet many immigrants have done very well. Forward-looking companies and entrepreneurs are taking advantage of the growth in immigrant populations and marketing their wares specifically to these new members of the population. ■ 1-800-777-CLUB, Inc. When they came to the United States from Taiwan in the late 1970s, brother and sister Marty and Helen Shih earned a living by selling flowers on a street corner. They now own an 800-employee telemarketing business, 1-800-777-CLUB, Inc., based in El Monte, California. That number logs about 1,200 phone calls a day from Asian immigrants seeking information in six languages: Japanese, Korean, Mandarin and Cantonese Chinese, Tagalog, and English. The callers seek advice on dealing with immigration officials, perhaps, or help in understanding an electric bill. The Shihs use those calls to add to a database of names, phone numbers, and demographic information that is then used for highly targeted telemarketing. The Shihs’ great advantage is that their telemarketers talk in their native language to people who are far from assimilated. A recent Vietnamese immigrant is thrilled to pick up the phone and hear someone speaking Vietnamese. Last year, the Shihs’ telemarketers sold more than $146 million worth of goods and services for companies including Sprint Corporation and DHL Worldwide Express. Their database now has around 1.5 million individual names covering a high percentage of Asian American households and 300,000 businesses.22 Population movement also occurs as people migrate from rural to urban areas, and then to suburban areas. The U.S. population has now undergone another shift, which demographers call “the rural rebound.” Nonmetropolitan counties that lost population to cities for most of this century are now attracting large numbers of urban refugees. Between 1990 and 1995, the rural population has grown 3.1 percent as people from the city have moved to small towns.23 ■ Cashing Out Wanda Urbanska and her husband, Frank Levering, moved from the media grind of Los Angeles to a simpler life in Mount Airy, North Carolina (population 7,200). Urbanska’s former job as a reporter for the Los Angeles Herald Examiner and Levering’s former job as a screenwriter for B movies had taken up so much of their time and energy that they couldn’t really enjoy the material gains they were making. When Levering’s father had a heart attack, the couple packed up and moved to Mt. Airy to help him with his fruit orchard. They still help him run the orchard while doing freelance writing on the side, such as two books about seeking a better life: Simple Living and Moving to a Small Town.24 144 Analyzing Marketing Opportunities Businesses with potential to cash in on the rural rebound might be those that cater to the growing SOHO (small office–home office) segment. For instance, makers of RTA (ready to assemble) furniture might find a strong consumer base among all the cashedout former city residents setting up offices in small towns or telecommuting from there to larger companies. Location makes a difference in goods and service preferences. The movement to the Sunbelt states has lessened the demand for warm clothing and home heating equipment and increased the demand for air conditioning. Those who live in large cities such as New York, Chicago, and San Francisco account for most of the sales of expensive furs, perfumes, luggage, and works of art. These cities also support the opera, ballet, and other forms of culture. Americans living in the suburbs lead more casual lives, do more outdoor living, and have greater neighbor interaction, higher incomes, and younger families. Suburbanites buy vans, home workshop equipment, outdoor furniture, lawn and gardening tools, and outdoor cooking equipment. There are also
Slide 92: regional differences: People in Seattle buy more toothbrushes per capita than people in any other U.S. city; people in Salt Lake City eat more candy bars; people from New Orleans use more ketchup; and people in Miami drink more prune juice. Shift from a Mass Market to Micromarkets The effect of all these changes is fragmentation of the mass market into numerous micromarkets differentiated by age, sex, ethnic background, education, geography, lifestyle, and other characteristics. Each group has strong preferences and is reached through increasingly targeted communication and distribution channels. Companies are abandoning the “shotgun approach” that aimed at a mythical “average” consumer and are increasingly designing their products and marketing programs for specific micromarkets. Demographic trends are highly reliable for the short and intermediate run. There is little excuse for a company’s being suddenly surprised by demographic developments. The Singer Company should have known for years that its sewing machine business would be hurt by smaller families and more working wives, yet it was slow in responding. In contrast, think of the rewards marketers reap when they focus on a demographic development. Some marketers are actively courting the home office segment of the lucrative SOHO market. Nearly 40 million Americans are working out of their homes with the help of electronic conveniences like cell phones, fax machines, and handheld organizers. One company that is shifting gears to appeal to this micromarket is Kinko’s Copy Centers: ■ Kinko’s Copy Centers Founded in the 1970s as a campus photocopying business, Kinko’s is now reinventing itself as the well-appointed office outside the home. Where once there were copy machines, the 902 Kinko’s stores in this country and abroad now feature a uniform mixture of fax machines, ultrafast color printers, and networks of computers equipped with popular software programs and high-speed Internet connections. People can come to a Kinko’s store to do all their office jobs: They can copy, send and receive faxes, use various programs on the computer, go on the Internet, order stationery and other printed supplies, and even teleconference. And as more and more people join the work-at-home trend, Kinko’s is offering an escape from the isolation of the home office. Kinko’s, which charges $12 an hour for computer use, is hoping to increase its share of industry revenue by getting people to spend more time—and hence, more money—at its stores. Besides adding state-of-the-art equipment, the company is talking to Starbucks about opening up coffee shops adjacent to some Kinko’s. The lettering on the Kinko’s door sums up the $1 billion company’s new business model: “Your branch office/Open 24 hours.”25 ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT Markets require purchasing power as well as people. The available purchasing power in an economy depends on current income, prices, savings, debt, and credit availability. Marketers must pay close attention to major trends in income and consumerspending patterns. Income Distribution Nations vary greatly in level and distribution of income and industrial structure. There are four types of industrial structures: 1. Subsistence economies: In a subsistence economy, the vast majority of people engage in simple agriculture, consume most of their output, and barter the rest for simple goods and services. These economies offer few opportunities for marketers. 2. Raw-material-exporting economies: These economies are rich in one or more natural resources but poor in other respects. Much of their revenue comes from exporting these resources. Examples are Zaire (copper) and Saudi Arabia (oil). These countries are good markets for extractive equipment, tools and Scanning the Marketing Environment 145
Slide 93: supplies, materials-handling equipment, and trucks. Depending on the number of foreign residents and wealthy native rulers and landholders, they are also a market for Western-style commodities and luxury goods. 3. Industrializing economies: In an industrializing economy, manufacturing begins to account for 10 percent to 20 percent of gross domestic product. Examples include India, Egypt, and the Philippines. As manufacturing increases, the country relies more on imports of raw materials, steel, and heavy machinery and less on imports of finished textiles, paper products, and processed foods. Industrialization creates a new rich class and a small but growing middle class, both demanding new types of goods. 4. Industrial economies: Industrial economies are major exporters of manufactured goods and investment funds. They buy manufactured goods from one another and also export them to other types of economies in exchange for raw materials and semifinished goods. The large and varied manufacturing activities of these nations and their sizable middle class make them rich markets for all sorts of goods. Marketers often distinguish countries with five different income-distribution patterns: (1) very low incomes; (2) mostly low incomes; (3) very low, very high incomes; (4) low, medium, high incomes; and (5) mostly medium incomes. Consider the market for Lamborghinis, an automobile costing more than $150,000. The market would be very small in countries with type 1 or 2 income patterns. One of the largest single markets for Lamborghinis turns out to be Portugal (income pattern 3)—one of the poorer countries in Western Europe, but one with enough wealthy families to afford expensive cars. Since 1980, the wealthiest fifth of the U.S. population has seen its income grow by 21 percent, while wages for the bottom 60 percent have stagnated or even dipped. According to Census Bureau statisticians, the 1990s have seen a greater polarization of income in the United States than at any point since the end of World War II. This is leading to a two-tier U.S. market, with affluent people buying expensive goods and working-class people spending more carefully, shopping at discount stores and factory outlet malls, and selecting less expensive store brands. Conventional retailers who offer medium-price goods are the most vulnerable to these changes. Companies that respond to the trend by tailoring their products and pitches to these two very different Americas stand to gain a lot:26 ■ The Gap At Gap’s Banana Republic stores, jeans sell for $58. Its Old Navy stores sell a version for $22. Both chains are thriving. 146 Analyzing Marketing Opportunities
Slide 94: ■ The Walt Disney Company The Walt Disney Company, which owns the rights to A. A. Milne’s Winnie-the-Pooh and his make-believe friends, is marketing two distinct Poohs. The original line-drawn figures appear on fine china, pewter spoons, and expensive kids’ stationery found in upscale specialty and department stores like Nordstrom and Bloomingdales. A plump, cartoonlike Pooh, clad in a red T-shirt and a goofy smile, adorns plastic key chains, polyester bedsheets, and animated videos. This downscaled Pooh sells at Wal-Mart and other discount stores. The National Basketball Association The National Basketball Association sells front-row seats in New York’s Madison Square Garden for $1,000 apiece. Yet, worried they might lose fans who can’t afford the typical $200 for a family night out at a sports event, NBA marketers have launched an array of much more affordable merchandise and entertainment properties such as traveling basketball exhibitions. ■ Savings, Debt, and Credit Availability Consumer expenditures are affected by consumer savings, debt, and credit availability. The Japanese, for example, save about 13.1 percent of their income, whereas U.S. consumers save about 4.7 percent. The result has been that Japanese banks were able to loan money to Japanese companies at a much lower interest rate than U.S. banks could offer to U.S. companies. Access to lower interest rates helped Japanese companies expand faster. U.S. consumers also have a high debt-to-income ratio, which slows down further expenditures on housing and large-ticket items. Credit is very available in the United States but at fairly high interest rates, especially to lower-income borrowers. Marketers must pay careful attention to major changes in incomes, cost of living, interest rates, savings, and borrowing patterns because they can have a high impact on business, especially for companies whose products have high income and price sensitivity. NATURAL ENVIRONMENT The deterioration of the natural environment is a major global concern. In many world cities, air and water pollution have reached dangerous levels. There is great concern about certain chemicals creating a hole in the ozone layer and producing a “greenhouse effect” that will lead to dangerous warming of the earth. In Western Europe, “green” parties have vigorously pressed for public action to reduce industrial pollution. In the United States, several thought leaders have documented ecological deterioration, whereas watchdog groups such as the Sierra Club and Friends of the Earth carried these concerns into political and social action. New legislation passed as a result has hit certain industries very hard. Steel companies and public utilities have had to invest billions of dollars in pollution-control equipment and more environmentally friendly fuels. The auto industry has had to introduce expensive emission controls in cars. The soap industry has had to increase its products’ biodegradability. Marketers need to be aware of the threats and opportunities associated with four trends in the natural environment: the shortage of raw materials, the increased cost of energy, increased pollution levels, and the changing role of governments. Shortage of Raw Materials The earth’s raw materials consist of the infinite, the finite renewable, and the finite nonrenewable. Infinite resources, such as air and water, pose no immediate problem, although some groups see a long-run danger. Environmental groups have lobbied for a ban on certain propellants used in aerosol cans because of the potential damage they can cause to the ozone layer. Water shortages and pollution are already major problems in some parts of the world. Finite renewable resources, such as forests and food, must be used wisely. Forestry companies are required to reforest timberlands in order to protect the soil and to ensure sufficient wood to meet future demand. Because the amount of arable land is Scanning the Marketing Environment 147
Slide 95: fixed and urban areas are constantly encroaching on farmland, food supply can also be a major problem. Finite nonrenewable resources—oil, coal, platinum, zinc, silver— will pose a serious problem as the point of depletion approaches. Firms making products that require these increasingly scarce minerals face substantial cost increases. They may not find it easy to pass these cost increases on to customers. Firms engaged in research and development have an excellent opportunity to develop substitute materials. Increased Energy Costs One finite nonrenewable resource, oil, has created serious problems for the world economy. Oil prices shot up from $2.23 a barrel in 1970 to $34.00 a barrel in 1982, creating a frantic search for alternative energy forms. Coal became popular again, and companies searched for practical means to harness solar, nuclear, wind, and other forms of energy. In the solar energy field alone, hundreds of firms introduced firstgeneration products to harness solar energy for heating homes and other uses. Other firms searched for ways to make a practical electric automobile, with a potential prize of billions for the winner. The development of alternative sources of energy and more efficient ways to use energy and the weakening of the oil cartel led to a subsequent decline in oil prices. Lower prices had an adverse effect on the oil-exploration industry but considerably improved the income of oil-using industries and consumers. In the meantime, the search continues for alternative sources of energy. Increased Pollution Levels Some industrial activity will inevitably damage the natural environment. Consider the dangerous mercury levels in the ocean, the quantity of DDT and other chemical pollutants in the soil and food supply, and the littering of the environment with bottles, plastics, and other packaging materials. Research has shown that about 42 percent of U.S. consumers are willing to pay higher prices for “green” products. This willingness creates a large market for pollution-control solutions, such as scrubbers, recycling centers, and landfill systems. It leads to a search for alternative ways to produce and package goods. Smart companies are initiating environment-friendly moves to show their concern. 3M runs a Pollution Prevention Pays program that has led to a substantial reduction in pollution and costs. Dow built a new ethylene plant in Alberta that uses 40 percent less energy and releases 97 percent less wastewater. AT&T uses a special software package to choose the least harmful materials, cut hazardous waste, reduce energy use, and improve product recycling in its operations. McDonald’s and Burger King eliminated their polystyrene cartons and now use smaller, recyclable paper wrappings and paper napkins.27 New concern over the toxic nature of dry cleaning solvents has opened up opportunities for a new breed of “green cleaners,” although these new businesses face an uphill battle. See the Marketing for the Millennium “A New Guard of Green Cleaners Vies for Concerned Customers.” Changing Role of Governments Governments vary in their concern and efforts to promote a clean environment. For example, the German government is vigorous in its pursuit of environmental quality, partly because of the strong green movement in Germany and partly because of the ecological devastation in the former East Germany. Many poor nations are doing little about pollution, largely because they lack the funds or the political will. It is in the richer nations’ interest to help the poorer nations control their pollution, but even the richer nations today lack the necessary funds. The major hopes are that companies around the world will accept more social responsibility and that less expensive devices will be invented to control and reduce pollution. 148 Analyzing Marketing Opportunities TECHNOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT One of the most dramatic forces shaping people’s lives is technology. Technology has released such wonders as penicillin, open-heart surgery, and the birth-control pill. It
Slide 96: MARKETING FOR MILLENNIUM green alternatives are readily available. There are already 6,000 dry cleaning stores using alternative cleaning materials. About 95 percent of those use odorless petroleum-based solvents, You need to get your business suit cleaned for a saleswhich actually get rid of stains that seemed impervious to perc. conference in Miami, and your flight leaves in 24 hours. Are you going smaller group of stores are wet cleaners, going back A much to go to the dry cleaner on the corner, which uses environto soap-and-water basics. All the alternatives with names such mentally damaging, possibly carcinogenic chemicals? Or are you as Cleaner-by-Nature, Eco-Mat, and Greener Cleaner are pricegoing to go across town and use a wet cleaner, who will get competitive with their toxic counterparts. Cleaner-by-Nature, your clothes clean without damaging you or the environment which opened up smack between two traditional dry cleaners (and make them smell a lot less toxic, too)? If you’re like most broke even only six months after opening. Its owner, in Denver, consumers, you’ll choose convenience and the quick Chris Comfort, plans a second store in Boulder. fix over concerns about health and environment. Although dry cleaners are the quintessential small business, Percloroethylene, or perc, the solvent used by the majority cleaning trend could open up opportunities for giant the green of dry cleaners, has been labeled a probable human carcinogen multinational corporations.Exxon Corporation has come up with by the EPA. More conclusive reports on its damaging effects are a new petroleum solvent called DF 2000, which is widely used expected soon. Yet when it comes to products that enhance in Europe. Hughes Environmental Systems, a unit of Raytheon their own or their clothing’s appearance, consumers are notably Corporation, and Global Technologies, Inc., of El Segundo, Caliindifferent to environmental concerns. In a 1996 surveyfornia, have teamed up to market a new method for cleaning of 30 dry cleaners in suburban Pittsburgh, Dan Kovacks asked customers clothes using liquid carbon dioxide. Procter & Gamble has inwhat they would do if they learned dry cleaning posed troduced a perc-free alternative for home use, Dryel, which ala threat to their well-being. Unable to think up alternatives, most said lows people to do their dry cleaning at home.Yet, as a testimony they would just get clothes dry-cleaned less frequently. the resistance faced by companies in this burgeoning prodto Yet a new guard of environmentally friendly dry cleaners is uct category, Procter & Gamble advertises Dryel’s convenience, willing to bet that consumers will choose green over not itsif toxic green advantage. A New Guard of Green Cleaners Vies for Concerned Customers Sources: Jacquelyn Ottman, Innovative Marketers Give New Products the Green Light, Marketing News, March 30, 1998, p. 10; Shelly Reese, Dressed to Kill, mographics, May 1998, pp. 22 25; Stacy Kravetz, Dry Cleaners’ New Wrinkle: Going Green, Wall Street Journal, June 3, 1998, p. B1. American De- has released such horrors as the hydrogen bomb, nerve gas, and the submachine gun. It has also released such mixed blessings as the automobile and video games. Every new technology is a force for “creative destruction.” Transistors hurt the vacuum-tube industry, xerography hurt the carbon-paper business, autos hurt the railroads, and television hurt the newspapers. Instead of moving into the new technologies, many old industries fought or ignored them, and their businesses declined. The economy’s growth rate is affected by how many major new technologies are discovered. Unfortunately, technological discoveries do not arise evenly through time—the railroad industry created a lot of investment, and then investment petered out until the auto industry emerged. Later, radio created a lot of investment, which then petered out until television appeared. In the time between major innovations, the economy can stagnate. In the meantime, minor innovations fill the gap: freeze-dried coffee, combination shampoo and conditioner, antiperspirant/deodorants, and the like. Minor innovations involve less risk, but critics argue that today too much research effort is going into producing minor improvements rather than major breakthroughs. New technology creates major long-run consequences that are not always foreseeable. The contraceptive pill, for example, led to smaller families, more working wives, and larger discretionary incomes—resulting in higher expenditures on vacation travel, durable goods, and luxury items. The marketer should monitor the following trends in technology: the pace of change, the opportunities for innovation, varying R&D budgets, and increased regulation. Scanning the Marketing Environment 149
Slide 97: Accelerating Pace of Technological Change Many of today’s common products were not available 40 years ago. John F. Kennedy did not know personal computers, digital wristwatches, video recorders, or fax machines. More ideas are being worked on; the time lag between new ideas and their successful implementation is decreasing rapidly; and the time between introduction and peak production is shortening considerably. Ninety percent of all the scientists who ever lived are alive today, and technology feeds upon itself. The advent of personal computers and fax machines has made it possible for people to telecommute—that is, work at home instead of traveling to offices that may be 30 or more minutes away. Some hope that this trend will reduce auto pollution, bring the family closer together, and create more home-centered entertainment and activity. It will also have substantial impact on shopping behavior and marketing performance. Unlimited Opportunities for Innovation Scientists today are working on a startling range of new technologies that will revolutionize products and production processes. Some of the most exciting work is being done in biotechnology, solid-state electronics, robotics, and materials sciences.28 Researchers are working on AIDS cures, happiness pills, painkillers, totally safe contraceptives, and nonfattening foods. They are designing robots for firefighting, underwater exploration, and home nursing. In addition, scientists also work on fantasy products, such as small flying cars, three-dimensional television, and space colonies. The challenge in each case is not only technical but also commercial—to develop affordable versions of these products. Companies are already harnessing the power of virtual reality (VR), the combination of technologies that allows users to experience three-dimensional, computergenerated environments through sound, sight, and touch. Virtual reality has already been applied to gathering consumer reactions to new automobile designs, kitchen layouts, exterior home designs, and other potential offerings. Varying R&D Budgets The United States leads the world in annual R&D expenditures ($74 billion), but nearly 60 percent of these funds are still earmarked for defense. There is a need to transfer more of this money into research on material science, biotechnology, and micromechanics. Japan has increased its R&D expenditures much faster than has the United States and is spending it mostly on nondefense-related research in physics, biophysics, and computer science.29 A growing portion of U.S. R&D expenditures is going into the development side of R&D, raising concerns about whether the United States can maintain its lead in basic science. Many companies are content to put their money into copying competitors’ products and making minor feature and style improvements. Even basicresearch companies such as DuPont, Bell Laboratories, and Pfizer are proceeding cautiously. Much of the research is defensive rather than offensive. And, increasingly, research directed toward major breakthroughs is being conducted by consortiums of companies rather than by single companies. Increased Regulation of Technological Change As products become more complex, the public needs to be assured of their safety. Consequently, government agencies’ powers to investigate and ban potentially unsafe products have been expanded. In the United States, the Federal Food and Drug Administration must approve all drugs before they can be sold. Safety and health regulations have also increased in the areas of food, automobiles, clothing, electrical appliances, and construction. Marketers must be aware of these regulations when proposing, developing, and launching new products. 150 Analyzing Marketing Opportunities POLITICAL-LEGAL ENVIRONMENT Marketing decisions are strongly affected by developments in the political and legal environment. This environment is composed of laws, government agencies, and pres-
Slide 98: sure groups that influence and limit various organizations and individuals. Sometimes these laws also create new opportunities for business. For example, mandatory recycling laws have given the recycling industry a major boost and spurred the creation of dozens of new companies making new products from recycled materials: ■ Wellman In 1993, Wellman introduced Ecospun Post Consumer Recycled (PCR) fiber, made from recycled soda bottles, and sold 800,000 pounds in that first year alone. Today, Wellman boasts 15 million pounds in sales and is partnering with domestic fabric mills like Milliken & Company, Malden Mills, and Dybersburg. At the outdoor Retailer Winter Market in 1998, Wellman introduced its new EcoSpun Squared fiber, which has moisturemanagement properties and was designed specifically for a performanceapparel market anxious to jump aboard the recycling bandwagon. Legislation Regulating Business Business legislation has three main purposes: to protect companies from unfair competition, to protect consumers from unfair business practices, and to protect the interests of society from unbridled business behavior. A major purpose of business legislation and enforcement is to charge businesses with the social costs created by their products or production processes. Legislation affecting business has steadily increased over the years. The European Commission has been active in establishing a new framework of laws covering competitive behavior, product standards, product liability, and commercial transactions for the 15 member nations of the European Union. Ex-Soviet nations are rapidly passing laws to promote and regulate an open market economy. The United States has many laws on its books covering such issues as competition, product safety and liability, fair trade and credit practices, and packaging and labeling.30 Several countries have gone further than the United States in passing strong consumer-protection legislation. Norway bans several forms of sales promotion—trading stamps, contests, premiums—as inappropriate or “unfair” instruments for promoting products. Thailand requires food processors selling national brands to market low-price brands also so that low-income consumers can find economy brands. In India, food companies need special approval to launch brands that duplicate what already exists on the market, such as another cola drink or brand of rice. A central concern about business legislation is: At what point do the costs of regulation exceed the benefits? The laws are not always administered fairly; regulators and enforcers may be lax or overzealous. Although each new law may have a legitimate rationale, it may have the unintended effect of sapping initiative and retarding economic growth. Marketers must have a good working knowledge of the major laws protecting competition, consumers, and society. Companies generally establish legal review procedures and promulgate ethical standards to guide their marketing managers. As more Scanning the Marketing Environment 151
Slide 99: and more business takes place in cyberspace, marketers must establish new parameters for doing business ethically. Although America Online has been hugely successful and is the country’s most popular on-line service provider, it has lost millions of dollars due to consumer complaints regarding unethical marketing tactics: ■ America Online, Inc. In 1998, America Online, Inc., agreed to pay a $2.6 million penalty and revamp some of its business practices to settle deceptivemarketing complaints brought by 44 state attorneys general. In this instance, AOL failed to clearly notify consumers that the “50 free hours” in its on-line service’s much-touted trial memberships must be used within a one-month period and that users would incur subscription fees after the first month. This was AOL’s third settlement with state regulators in less than two years. Previous settlements dealt with the company’s data network congestion in early 1997 (due to a move to flat rate pricing that gave the company more subscriptions than it had equipment to handle) and efforts in late 1996 to switch customers to a higher-priced subscription plan. The three agreements not only cost the company $34 million in total but also created a barrage of negative publicity that AOL had to work hard to counter.31 Growth of Special-Interest Groups The number and power of special-interest groups have increased over the past three decades. Political-action committees (PACs) lobby government officials and pressure business executives to pay more attention to consumer rights, women’s rights, senior citizen rights, minority rights, and gay rights. Many companies have established public-affairs departments to deal with these groups and issues. An important force affecting business is the consumerist movement—an organized movement of citizens and government to strengthen the rights and powers of buyers in relation to sellers. Consumerists have advocated and won the right to know the true interest cost of a loan, the true cost per standard unit of competing brands (unit pricing), the basic ingredients in a product, the nutritional quality of food, the freshness of products, and the true benefits of a product. In response to consumerism, several companies have established consumer-affairs departments to help formulate policies and respond to consumer complaints. Whirlpool Corporation is just one of the companies that have installed toll-free phone numbers for consumers. Whirlpool even expanded the coverage of its product warranties and rewrote them in basic English. Clearly, new laws and growing numbers of pressure groups have put more restraints on marketers. Marketers have to clear their plans with the company’s legal, publicrelations, public-affairs, and consumer-affairs departments. Insurance companies directly or indirectly affect the design of smoke detectors; scientific groups affect the design of spray products by condemning aerosols. In essence, many private marketing transactions have moved into the public domain. SOCIAL-CULTURAL ENVIRONMENT Society shapes our beliefs, values, and norms. People absorb, almost unconsciously, a worldview that defines their relationship to themselves, to others, to organizations, to society, to nature, and to the universe. ■ 152 Analyzing Marketing Opportunities Views of themselves: People vary in the relative emphasis they place on selfgratification. In the United States during the 1960s and 1970s, “pleasure seekers” sought fun, change, and escape. Others sought “self-realization.” People bought products, brands, and services as a means of self-expression. They bought dream cars and dream vacations and spent more time in health activities (jogging, tennis), in introspection, and in arts and crafts. Today, in contrast, people are adopting more conservative behaviors and ambitions. They have witnessed harder times and cannot rely on continuous employment and rising real income. They are more cautious in their spending pattern and more value-driven in their purchases.
Slide 100: ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Views of others: Some observers have pointed to a countermovement from a “me society” to a “we society.” People are concerned about the homeless, crime and victims, and other social problems. They would like to live in a more humane society. At the same time, people are seeking out their “own kind” and avoiding strangers. People hunger for serious and long-lasting relationships with a few others. These trends portend a growing market for social-support products and services that promote direct relations between human beings, such as health clubs, cruises, and religious activity. They also suggest a growing market for “social surrogates,” things that allow people who are alone to feel that they are not, such as television, home video games, and chat rooms on the Internet. Views of organizations: People vary in their attitudes toward corporations, government agencies, trade unions, and other organizations. Most people are willing to work for these organizations, although they may be critical of particular ones. But there has been an overall decline in organizational loyalty. The massive wave of company downsizings has bred cynicism and distrust. Many people today see work not as a source of satisfaction but as a required chore to earn money to enjoy their nonwork hours. This outlook has several marketing implications. Companies need to find new ways to win back consumer and employee confidence. They need to make sure that they are good corporate citizens and that their consumer messages are honest. More companies are turning to social audits and public relations to improve their image with their publics. Views of society: People vary in their attitudes toward their society. Some defend it (preservers), some run it (makers), some take what they can from it (takers), some want to change it (changers), some are looking for something deeper (seekers), and some want to leave it (escapers).32 Often consumption patterns reflect social attitude. Makers tend to be high achievers who eat, dress, and live well. Changers usually live more frugally, driving smaller cars and wearing simpler clothes. Escapers and seekers are a major market for movies, music, surfing, and camping. Views of nature: People vary in their attitude toward nature. Some feel subjugated by it, others feel harmony with it, and still others seek mastery over it. A longterm trend has been humankind’s growing mastery of nature through technology. More recently, however, people have awakened to nature’s fragility and finite resources. They recognize that nature can be destroyed by human activities. Love of nature is leading to more camping, hiking, boating, and fishing. Business has responded with hiking boots, tenting equipment, and other gear. Tour operators are packaging more tours to wilderness areas. Marketing communicators are using more scenic backgrounds in advertising. Food producers have found growing markets for “natural” products, such as natural cereal, natural ice cream, and health foods. Two natural-food grocery stores, Whole Foods Markets and Fresh Fields, merged in 1997 with sales of $1.1 billion. Views of the universe: People vary in their beliefs about the origin of the universe and their place in it. Most Americans are monotheistic, although religious conviction and practice have been waning through the years. Church attendance has fallen steadily, with the exception of certain evangelical movements that reach out to bring people back into organized religion. Some of the religious impulse has been redirected into an interest in Eastern religions, mysticism, the occult, and the human potential movement. As people lose their religious orientation, they seek self-fulfillment and immediate gratification. At the same time, every trend seems to breed a countertrend, as indicated by a worldwide rise in religious fundamentalism. Here are some other cultural characteristics of interest to marketers: the persistence of core cultural values, the existence of subcultures, and shifts of values through time. High Persistence of Core Cultural Values The people living in a particular society hold many core beliefs and values that tend to persist. Most Americans still believe in work, in getting married, in giving to charity, and in being honest. Core beliefs and values are passed on from parents to Scanning the Marketing Environment 153
Slide 101: children and are reinforced by major social institutions—schools, churches, business, and government. Secondary beliefs and values are more open to change. Believing in the institution of marriage is a core belief; believing that people ought to get married early is a secondary belief. Thus family-planning marketers could make some headway arguing that people should get married later rather than that they should not get married at all. Marketers have some chance of changing secondary values but little chance of changing core values. For instance, the nonprofit organization Mothers Against Drunk Drivers (MADD) does not try to stop the sale of alcohol, but it does promote the idea of appointing a designated driver who will not drink that evening. The group also lobbies to raise the legal drinking age. Existence of Subcultures Each society contains subcultures, groups with shared values emerging from their special life experiences or circumstances. Star Trek fans, Black Muslims, and Hell’s Angels all represent subcultures whose members share common beliefs, preferences, and behaviors. To the extent that subcultural groups exhibit different wants and consumption behavior, marketers can choose particular subcultures as target markets. Marketers sometimes reap unexpected rewards in targeting subcultures. For instance, marketers have always loved teenagers because they’re society’s trendsetters in fashion, music, entertainment, ideas, and attitudes. Marketers also know that if they attract someone as a teen, there’s a good chance they’ll keep the person as a customer in the years ahead. Frito-Lay, which draws 15 percent of its sales from teens, says it has seen a rise in chip-snacking by grown-ups. “We think it’s because we brought them in as teenagers,” says a Frito-Lay marketing director.33 Shifts of Secondary Cultural Values Through Time Although core values are fairly persistent, cultural swings do take place. The advent in the 1960s of hippies, the Beatles, Elvis Presley, and other cultural phenomena had a major impact on young people’s hairstyles, clothing, sexual norms, and life goals. Today’s young people are influenced by new heroes and fads: Pearl Jam’s Eddie Vedder, Michael Jordan, and rollerblading. Marketers have a keen interest in spotting cultural shifts that might bring new marketing opportunities or threats. Several firms offer social-cultural forecasts. The Yankelovich Monitor interviews 2,500 people each year and tracks 35 social trends, such as “antibigness,” “mysticism,” “living for today,” “away from possessions,” and “sensuousness.” It describes the percentage of the population who share the attitude as well as the percentage who do not. For example, the percentage of people who value physical fitness and well-being has risen steadily over the years, especially in the under-30 group, the young women and upscale group, and people living in the West. Marketers of health foods and exercise equipment cater to this trend with appropriate products and communications. In 1995, Taco Bell unveiled a new lower-fat “Border Lights” menu. The Center for Science in the Public Interest, a consumer advocacy group in Washington, praised the new menu as being “more than a marketing gimmick.”34 SUMMARY 1. Successful companies realize that the marketing environment presents a neverending series of opportunities and threats. The major responsibility for identifying significant changes in the macroenvironment falls to a company’s marketers. More than any other group in the company, marketing managers must be the trend trackers and opportunity seekers. 2. Many opportunities are found by identifying trends (directions or sequences of events that have some momentum and durability) and megatrends (major social, economic, political, and technological changes that have long-lasting influence). 154 Analyzing Marketing Opportunities
Slide 102: 3. Within the rapidly changing global picture, marketers must monitor six major environmental forces: demographic, economic, natural, technological, political-legal, and social-cultural. 4. In the demographic environment, marketers must be aware of worldwide population growth; changing mixes of age, ethnic composition, and educational levels; the rise of nontraditional families; large geographic shifts in population; and the move to micromarketing and away from mass marketing. 5. In the economic arena, marketers need to focus on income distribution and levels of savings, debt, and credit availability. 6. In the natural environment, marketers need to be aware of raw-materials shortages, increased energy costs and pollution levels, and the changing role of governments in environmental protection. 7. In the technological arena, marketers should take account of the accelerating pace of technological change, opportunities for innovation, varying R&D budgets, and the increased governmental regulation brought about by technological change. 8. In the political-legal environment, marketers must work within the many laws regulating business practices and with various special-interest groups. 9. In the social-cultural arena, marketers must understand people’s views of themselves, others, organizations, society, nature, and the universe. They must market products that correspond to society’s core and secondary values, and address the needs of different subcultures within a society. APPLICATIONS CONCEPTS 1. One of the changes in the demographic environment is the increasing proportion of older adults, who comprise many markets for certain products. Discuss how this demographic trend could affect the product features and/or distribution arrangements of the following: a. Minute Maid orange juice b. Mail-order businesses c. the Social Security office 2. You are a product manager at Minolta. Your boss has just received a copy of The Popcorn Report (see the Marketing Insight “Faith Popcorn Points to 16 Trends in the Economy”). Although her background is in engineering, your boss has always been interested in the sensory appeal of product features, and this book has aroused her curiosity about this phenomenon. Prepare a report summarizing the potential impact of each of Popcorn’s 16 trends on Minolta’s product (cameras). Specifically, how will each trend affect product development, features, and marketing? 3. Budweiser, Calvin Klein, McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, and Chevrolet are examples of brands that have become cultural symbols for the United States. Name some brand names and products that are cultural symbols for the following countries: (a) Japan, (b) Germany, (c) Russia, (d) France, (e) Italy, (f) Ireland, (g) Colombia, (h) Mexico, (i) England, (j) Switzerland, (k) the Middle Eastern nations, (l) Australia. Scanning the Marketing Environment 155
Slide 103: NOTES 1. Gene Del Vecchio, “Keeping It Timeless, Trendy,” Advertising Age, March 23, l998, p. 24. 2. Sue Shellenbarger, “‘Child-Care Cams’: Are They Good News for Working Parents?” Wall Street Journal, August 19, 1998, p. B1. 3. Kelly Shermach, “Niche Malls: Innovation for an Industry in Decline,” Marketing News, February 26, l996, p. 1. 4. Gerald Celente, Trend Tracking (New York: Warner Books, 1991). 5. See Faith Popcorn, The Popcorn Report (New York: HarperBusiness, 1992). 6. John Naisbitt and Patricia Aburdene, Megatrends 2000 (New York: Avon Books, 1990). 7. Pam Weisz, “Border Crossings: Brands Unify Image to Counter Cult of Culture,” Brandweek, October 31, 1994, pp. 24–28. 8. Much of the statistical data in this chapter is drawn from the World Almanac and Book of Facts, 1997 and the Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1997 (Washington, DC: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1998). 156
Slide 104: 9. Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III, The Limits to Growth (New York: New American Library, 1972), p. 41. 10. Philip Kotler and Eduardo Roberto, Social Marketing: Strategies for Changing Public Attitudes (New York: Free Press, 1989). 11. Sally D. Goll, “Marketing: China’s (Only) Children Get the Royal Treatment,” Wall Street Journal, February 8, 1995, p. B1. 12. Bill Stoneman, “Beyond Rocking the Ages: An Interview with J. Walker Smith,” American Demographics, May 1998, pp. 45–49; Margot Hornblower, “Great X,” Time, June 9, l997, pp. 58–59; Bruce Horowitz, “Gen X in a Class by Itself,” USA Today, September 23, 1996, p. B1. 13. Steve Johnson, “Beer Ads for a New Generation of Guzzlers,” Chicago Tribune, June 5, 1998, p. 1. 14. Jaine Lopiano-Misdom and Joanne de Luca, “Street Scene,” Across the Board, March 1998, p. 14. 15. David Leonhardt, “Hey Kids, Buy This,” Business Week, June 30, 1997, pp. 62–67; Lisa Krakowka, “In the Net,” American Demographics, August 1998, p. 56. 16. J. Walker Smith and Ann Clurman, Rocking the Ages: The Yankelovich Report on Generational Marketing (New York: HarperBusiness, 1998). 17. For descriptions on the buying habits and marketing approaches to African Americans and Latinos, see Chester A. Swenson, Selling to a Segmented Market: The Lifestyle Approach (Lincolnwood, IL: NTC Business Books, 1992). 18. Jacquelyn Lynn, “Tapping the Riches of Bilingual Markets,” Management Review, March 1995, pp. 56–61. 19. Laura Koss-Feder, “Out and About,” Marketing News, May 25, 1998, pp. 1, 20. 20. Ibid. 21. Dana Canedy, “As the Purchasing Power of Women Rises, Marketers Start to Pay More Attention to Them,” New York Times, July 2, 1998, p. 6. 22. Michael Barrier, “The Language of Success,” Nation’s Business, August 1997, pp. 56–57. 23. Brad Edmondson, “A New Era for Rural Americans,” American Demographics, September 1997, pp. 30–31. See also Kenneth M. Johnson and Calvin L. Beale, “The Rural Rebound,” The Wilson Quarterly, Spring 1998, pp. 16–27. 24. Robert Kelly, “‘It Felt Like Home’: More Are Making Move to Small Towns,” St. Louis Post-Dispatch, April 27, 1997, p. D6. 25. Lauri J. Flynn, “Not Just a Copy Shop Any Longer, Kinko’s Pushes Its Computer Services,” New York Times, July 6, 1998, p. D1. 26. David Leonhardt, “Two-Tier Marketing,” Business Week, March 17, 1997, pp. 82–90. 27. Francoise L. Simon, “Marketing Green Products in the Triad,” The Columbia Journal of World Business, Fall and Winter 1992, pp. 268–85; and Jacquelyn A. Ottman, Green Marketing: Responding to Environmental Consumer Demands (Lincolnwood, IL: NTC Business Books, 1993). 28. See “White House to Name 22 Technologies It Says Are Crucial to Prosperity, Security,” Wall Street Journal, April 26, 1991, p. 2. 29. See “R&D Scoreboard: On a Clear Day You Can See Progress,” Business Week, June 29, 1992, pp. 104–25. 30. See Dorothy Cohen, Legal Issues on Marketing Decision Making (Cincinnati: South-Western, 1995). 31. Rajiv Chandrasekaran, “AOL Settles Marketing Complaints,” Washington Post, May 29, 1998, p. F1. 32. Arnold Mitchell of the Stanford Research Institute, private publication. 33. Laura Zinn, “Teens: Here Comes the Biggest Wave Yet,” Business Week, April 11, 1994, pp. 76–86. 34. Glenn Collins, “From Taco Bell, a Healthier Option,” New York Times, February 9, 1995, p. D4. Scanning the Marketing Environment 157
Slide 105: Developing New Market Offerings Examine the questions: tahW segn l c od a -moc ypan fce i elopngdv w cudorp ?st tahW l noi z g r cu s e t are usd ot mange wcudorp t ? nem l v tahW er ht niam seg t ni -ed elopingv w ,products and how can they b manged er?bt tahW c f sro e t a h e tar fo difuson a consumer adption f newly auchd cudorp ?st following ■ ■ ■ Who should ultimately design the product? The customer, of course. ■
Slide 106: O nce a company has carefully segmented the market, chosen its target customers, identified their needs, and determined its market positioning, it is better able to develop new products. Marketers play a key role in the new-product process, by iden- tifying and evaluating new-product ideas and working with R&D and others in every stage of development. Every company must develop new products. New-product development shapes the company’s future. Replacement products must be created to maintain or build sales. Customers want new products, and competitors will do their best to supply them. Each year over 16,000 new products (including line extensions and new brands) are introduced into groceries and drugstores. A company can add new products through acquisition or development. The acquisition route can take three forms. The company can buy other companies, it can acquire patents from other companies, or it can buy a license or franchise from another company. The development route can take two forms. The company can develop new products in its own laboratories. Or it can contract with independent researchers or new-product-development firms to develop specific new products. Booz, Allen & Hamilton has identified six categories of new products:1 1. New-to-the-world products: New products that create an entirely new market. 2. New product lines: New products that allow a company to enter an established market for the first time. 3. Additions to existing product lines: New products that supplement a company’s established product lines (package sizes, flavors, and so on). 4. Improvements and revisions of existing products: New products that provide improved performance or greater perceived value and replace existing products. 5. Repositionings: Existing products that are targeted to new markets or market segments. 6. Cost reductions: New products that provide similar performance at lower cost. Less than 10 percent of all new products are truly innovative and new to the world. These products involve the greatest cost and risk because they are new to both the company and the marketplace. Most new-product activity is devoted to improving existing products. At Sony, over 80 percent of new-product activity is undertaken to modify and improve existing Sony products. C HALLENGES IN NEW-PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT 328 Developing Marketing Strategies Companies that fail to develop new products are putting themselves at great risk. Their existing products are vulnerable to changing customer needs and tastes, new technologies, shortened product life cycles, and increased domestic and foreign competition. At the same time, new-product development is risky. Texas Instruments lost $660 million before withdrawing from the home computer business, RCA lost $500 million on its videodisc players, Federal Express lost $340 million on its Zap mail, Ford lost $250 million on its Edsel, DuPont lost an estimated $100 million on a synthetic leather called Corfam, and the British–French Concorde aircraft will never recover its investment.2 To get a feel for how much money can be thrown at a product that is destined to fail, consider the fate of the smokeless cigarette.
Slide 107: ■ R. J. Reynolds By the late 1980s, R. J. Reynolds Tobacco Company (RJR) had already spent more than $300 million on the reduced-smoke Premier cigarette. Five months after its introduction in 1988, Premier disappeared from the test markets because smokers “didn’t like the taste.” It was also difficult to light. “Premier gave you a hernia trying to get the smoke through,” said one tobacco industry analyst. Undeterred by the costly failure of Premier, RJR went on to spend an additional $125 million on another attempt. In 1997 RJR tested its smokeless Eclipse cigarette in Chattanooga, Tennessee. But smokers say they’re not switching. Eclipse seemed like a good alternative; the cigarette heats the tobacco instead of burning it, resulting in only 10 percent of the smoke of conventional cigarettes. Only problem is smokers like smoke. Research shows that smokers enjoy the “security blanket” of being wreathed in smoke, regardless of how much nonsmokers dislike it. So far, nonsmokers are the only ones who like Eclipse.3 New products continue to fail at a disturbing rate. In 1997, a record 25,261 new packaged-goods products were launched, and that doesn’t even include products you won’t find at your local supermarket, like techno-gizmos and software programs. But equally stunning is the number that fail: Tom Vierhile, general manager of Market Intelligence Service Ltd., a new-product reporting and retrieval firm, estimates that 80 percent of recently launched products aren’t around today.4 When you consider that it costs $20 million to $50 million to launch a new product, you wonder why people continue to innovate at all. Yet product failures can serve one useful purpose: Inventors, entrepreneurs, and new-product team leaders can learn valuable lessons about what not to do. With this credo in mind, marketing consultant Robert McMath has collected about 80,000 consumer products, most of them abject flops, in his New Product Showcase and Learning Center in the rolling hills of Ithaca, New York. See the Marketing Insight box, “Mr. Failure’s Lessons for Sweet Success: Robert McMath’s New Product Showcase and Learning Center,” for some insights on product failure. Why do new products fail? ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ A high-level executive pushes a favorite idea through in spite of negative market research findings. The idea is good, but the market size is overestimated. The product is not well designed. The product is incorrectly positioned in the market, not advertised effectively, or overpriced. Development costs are higher than expected. Competitors fight back harder than expected. Several other factors hinder new-product development: ■ ■ Shortage of important ideas in certain areas: There may be few ways left to improve some basic products (such as steel, detergents). Fragmented markets: Keen competition is leading to market fragmentation. Companies have to aim their new products at smaller market segments, and this can mean lower sales and profits for each product. Social and governmental constraints: New products have to satisfy consumer safety and environmental concerns. Government requirements slow down innovation in drugs, toys, and some other industries. Costliness of the development process: A company typically has to generate many ideas to find just one worthy of development. Furthermore, the company often faces high R&D, manufacturing, and marketing costs. Capital shortages: Some companies with good ideas cannot raise the funds needed to research and launch them. ■ ■ ■ chapter 11 Developing New Market Offerings 329
Slide 108: M A R K E T I N G a l y r e q u i r e s o u c a n d p e r s i t n c b e yo n d t h e c a p b i l i t e s o f m t a r k e t s . e p P s i - Co l a e d v r y p e c a r i o u s e x i s te n c ofr d e c a s b eofr e s t a b l i h n g i t s e l f a s t h e m a j o r competi r o Cca- l . M ore t he point, thoug , is tha e p P s i i s o n e o f t h e e f w s u r v i o s a m o n g d z eo n s o f o t h e r Strolling the aisles at Robert McMath’s New Product Showcase b r a n d s t h a v e c l n g e d C o k f r m o e t h a n c e t u .r y and Learning Center is like being in some nightmare version of E v e r h a o c - fC T l ? o c - u C m l a Y ? r e n F c h a supermarket. There’s Gerber food for adults pureed sweetW i n e o f C l a ? H w b o u t K i n g - Co l a , t h e r o y a l d i n k ? M o r e and-sour pork and chicken Madeira microwaveable ice cream r e c, n t l y Amer ican soda sundaes, parsnip chips, aerosol mustard, Ben-Gay aspirin,tlfCfAri ola aied o atrc African and d r i n k e , s a n d C a j u n Co l a p r e t y w e l f l o p e d i n t h e l a n d o f Miller Clear Beer. How about Richard Simmons Dijon Vinaigrette qual, an establi h d pro uc t has Salad Spray, garlic cake in a jar, and Farrah shampoo? MostAogumb. l things being of the 80,000 products on display were flops. Behind each of them-iraaa distnc dvntge ovr ny ew poduct ha s not rad are squandered dollars and hopes, but the genial curator ofodicaly ifernt frm it. this Smithsonian of consumerism, a former marketer for Colgate-Pal■ t Dno be oledf yb the suce of the Complete Dummy’s molive, believes that even and perhaps, especially failure has to . . . line of books. People usually don’t buy products Guide valuable lessons to teach. that remind them of their shortcomings. Gillette’s For Oily The New Product Showcase and Learning Center is a place Hair Only shampoo flopped because people did not want to where product developers pay hundreds of dollars an hour to that they had greasy hair. People will use products confess visit and learn from others’ mistakes. McMath’s unusual that discreetly say for oily hair or for sensitive skin in small showcase represents $4 billion in product investment. From it heprint on containers that are otherwise identical to the reguhas distilled dozens of lessons for an industry that, by its own product. But they do not want to be hit over the head lar admission, has a very short memory. For those who can’t make the with reminders that they are overweight, have bad breath, trip to Ithaca or pay a steep consulting fee, McMath has sweat too much, or are elderly. Nor do they wish to advertise now put his unique insights into a What Were They Thinking? book, their faults and foibles to other people by carrying such prodHere are a few of the marketing lessons McMath espouses: ucts in their grocery carts. Mr. Failure’s Lessons for Sweet Success: Robert McMath’s New Product Showcase and Learning Center I NSIGHT ■ e h T u l a v f o a d n a r b s i s t i d o g , e m a n h c i w t i srna e v o . e m i t e l m ap o y c b t . P i y e t h s T u r i o v l a d - n c t n e s i f o . s e t u b ri a t n Do r e d a u q s i h t s u r y b - h c a t g n i r u o y d o g e m a n o t g n i h e m o s y l a t u o f o . r e c at h n e u h ,o W y r i aG - p s B lk en h t a ui od m y - g a m i u o y n a C k s? i r u o y s a e m r c y G a - n e B t h y a w e h t f o e g n i w o l a ? t s u r L h S y o N r a lg u d S e z n A G , g n i e s r a u w t o h v d S C y L k rn ow f , m a e r c d ins h : t b l u o s, e r a g s e h c d n a d l a s . g n i e r d k crae C k c a J , l e r c s k cruem S i p r e h t o w n g d , u a y l m p o h c k tL e f i r F d n a n s e t p m o g bh a c i r d o . g e m a n M e - to m a r k e t i n g i s t h e n u m b e r - o k i l e r o f n e w p r o d u c t s. M o s t s u c h a t e m p s f a i l . T h e o n e s t h a s u c e d u s - ■ ■ emoS cud rp st a yl n i f h , o -res , seciv ro epx s cn i tah mu yl . r o T yl acid r .tne f id yehT liaf esuac b sremu noc t nod e tal r o t .meht uo Y nac l e t tah emos e vit a on cudorp st era dome as on as ouy hear ti names: eroast .TEg u-C cumber .Antipsa y Health-S .Sausge Other . s pa t uc e b n v i d h m of r ro F , elpmax s oc iba N erO elt iL , s gdu F a ce r noit f y cudorp t htiw a e taloc h gnitaoc tnaem o t e t pmoc htiw , ydnac sdnuo kil e a .l rut n tuB ro f y nam s e oc ib N sah degaruocn lp o t l up ra t oerO k c sei dna kcil tuo e h t . g n i l f s I t re v y s m o t n e p a o e r O h t i w a e t l o c h , gnitaoc re v woh ; os erO lt iL s gdu F kc r a tn drocsi enot wih .consumer Sources: Paul Lukas, The Ghastliest Product Launches, Fortune, March 16, 1996, p. 44; Jan Alexander, Failure Inc. Worldbusiness, May June 1996, p. 46;Ted Anthony, Where’s Farrah Shampoo? Next to the Salsa Ketchup, Marketing News, May 6, 1996, p. 13; bulleted points are adapted from Robert M. McMath and Thom Forbes, What Were They Thinking? Marketing Lessons I’ve Learned from Over 80,000 New-Product Innovations and Idiocies (New York: Times Business, 1998), pp. 22 24, 28, 30 31, and 129 30. ■ 330 Developing Marketing Strategies Faster required development time: Companies that cannot develop new products quickly will be at a disadvantage. Companies must learn how to compress development time by using computer-aided design and manufacturing techniques, strategic partners, early concept tests, and advanced marketing planning. Alert companies use concurrent new-product development, in which cross-functional teams collaborate to push new products through development and to market. Concurrent product development resembles a rubgy match rather than a relay race, with team members passing the new product back and forth as they head toward the goal. The Allen-Bradley Corporation (a maker of industrial controls)
Slide 109: was able to develop a new electrical control device in just two years, as opposed to six years under its old system. ■ Shorter product life cycles: When a new product is successful, rivals are quick to copy it. Sony used to enjoy a three-year lead on its new products. Now Matsushita will copy the product within six months, leaving hardly enough time for Sony to recoup its investment. Given these challenges, what can a company do to develop successful new products? Cooper and Kleinschmidt found that the number-one success factor is a unique, superior product. Products with a high product advantage succeed 98 percent of the time, compared to products with a moderate advantage (58 percent success) or minimal advantage (18 percent success). Another key success factor is a well-defined product concept prior to development. The company carefully defines and assesses the target market, product requirements, and benefits before proceeding. Other success factors are technological and marketing synergy, quality of execution in all stages, and market attractiveness.5 Madique and Zirger, in a study of successful product launches in the electronics industry, found eight factors accounting for new-product success. New-product success is greater the deeper the company’s understanding of customer needs, the higher the performance-to-cost ratio, the earlier the product is introduced ahead of competition, the greater the expected contribution margin, the more spent on announcing and launching the product, the greater the top management support, and the greater the cross-functional teamwork.6 New-product development is most effective when there is teamwork among R&D, engineering, manufacturing, purchasing, marketing, and finance. The product idea must be researched from a marketing point of view, and a specific cross-functional team must guide the project throughout its development. Studies of Japanese companies show that their new-product successes are due in large part to cross-functional teamwork. E FFECTIVE ORGANIZATIONAL ARRANGEMENTS Top management is ultimately accountable for the success of new products. Newproduct development requires senior management to define business domains, product categories, and specific criteria. For example, the Gould Corporation established the following acceptance criteria: ■ ■ ■ ■ The product can be introduced within five years. The product has a market potential of at least $50 million and a 15 percent growth rate. The product would provide at least 30 percent return on sales and 40 percent on investment. The product would achieve technical or market leadership. BUDGETING FOR NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT Senior management must decide how much to budget for new-product development. R&D outcomes are so uncertain that it is difficult to use normal investment criteria. Some companies solve this problem by financing as many projects as possible, hoping to achieve a few winners. Other companies set their budget by applying a conventional percentage of sales figures or by spending what the competition spends. Still other companies decide how many successful new products they need and work backward to estimate the required investment. The U.S. company best known for its commitment to new-product research and development is Minneapolis-based 3M Company: Developing New Market Offerings 331
Slide 110: ■ 3M Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing (3M) fosters a culture of innovation and improvisation that was evident at its very beginnings: In 1906 the directors were faced with a failed mining operation, but they ended up making sandpaper out of the grit and wastage. Today 3M makes more than 60,000 products, including sandpaper, adhesives, computer diskettes, contact lenses, and Post-it notes. Each year 3M launches scores of new products. This $15 billion company’s immodest goal is to have each of its divisions generate at least 30 percent of sales from products less than four years on the market.7 ■ 3M encourages everyone, not just engineers, to become “product champions.” The company’s 15 percent rule allows all employees to spend up to 15 percent of their time working on projects of personal interest. Products such as Post-it notes, masking tape, and 3M’s microreplication technology grew from 15 percent-rule activities. Each promising new idea is assigned to a multidisciplinary venture team headed by an “executive champion.” 3M expects some failures and learns from them. Its slogan is “You have to kiss a lot of frogs to find a prince.” 3M hands out its Golden Step awards each year to the venture teams whose new product earned more than $2 million in U.S. sales or $4 million in worldwide sales within three years of its commercial introduction. ■ ■ ■ 332 Developing Marketing Strategies Table 2.1 shows how a company might calculate the cost of new-product development. The new-products manager at a large consumer packaged-goods company reviewed the results of 64 new-product ideas. Only one in four ideas, or 16, passed the screening stage. It cost $1,000 to review each idea at this stage. Half of these ideas, or eight, survived the concept-testing stage, at a cost of $20,000 each. Half of these, or four, survived the product-development stage, at a cost of $200,000 each. Half of these, or two, did well in the test market, at a cost of $500,000 each. When these two ideas were launched, at a cost of $5 million each, only one was highly successful. Thus the one successful idea had cost the company $5,721,000 to develop. In the process, 63 other ideas fell by the wayside. The total cost for developing one successful new product was $13,984,400. Unless the company can improve the pass ratios and reduce the costs at each stage, it will have to budget nearly $14 million for each suc-
Slide 111: Stage 1. Idea screening 2. Concept testing 3. Product development 4. Test marketing 5. National launch Number of Ideas 64 16 8 4 2 Pass Ratio 1:4 1:2 1:2 1:2 1:2 Cost per Product Idea $ 1,000 20,000 200,000 500,000 5,000,000 $5,721,000 TABLE 2. 1 Total Estimated Cost of Finding One Cost Successful New Product (Starting $ 64,000 with 64 New Ideas) 320,000 1,600,000 2,000,000 10,000,000 $13,984,000 cessful new idea it hopes to find. If top management wants four successful new products in the next few years, it will have to budget at least $56 million (4 14 million) for new-product development. ORGANIZING NEW-PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT Companies handle the organizational aspect of new-product development in several ways.8 The most common are: ■ Product managers: Many companies assign responsibility for new-product ideas to product managers. In practice, this system has several faults. Product managers are so busy managing existing lines that they give little thought to new products other than line extensions. They also lack the specific skills and knowledge needed to develop and critique new products. New-product managers: Kraft and Johnson & Johnson have new-product managers who report to category managers. This position professionalizes the new-product function. However, like product managers, new-product managers tend to think in terms of modifications and line extensions limited to their product market. New-product committees: Many companies have a high-level management committee charged with reviewing and approving proposals. New-product departments: Large companies often establish a department headed by a manager who has substantial authority and access to top management. The department’s major responsibilities include generating and screening new ideas, working with the R&D department, and carrying out field testing and commercialization. New-product venture teams: 3M, Dow, Westinghouse, and General Mills often assign new-product development work to venture teams. A venture team is a group brought together from various operating departments and charged with developing a specific product or business. They are “intrapreneurs” relieved of their other duties and given a budget, a time frame, and a “skunkworks” setting. Skunkworks are informal workplaces, sometimes garages, where intrapreneurial teams attempt to develop new products. See the Marketing Insight box, “NewProduct Development Not Just for Engineers: The Wisdom of Cross-Functional Teams,” for more information on how companies benefit from cross-functional teamwork when developing new products. ■ ■ ■ ■ The most sophisticated tool for managing the innovation process is the stage-gate system used by 3M and a number of other companies.9 The innovation process is divided into several stages. At the end of each stage is a gate or checkpoint. The project leader, working with a cross-functional team, must bring a set of known deliverables to each gate before the project can pass to the next stage. To move from the business plan stage into product development requires a convincing market research study of consumer needs and interest, a competitive analysis, and a technical appraisal. Senior chapter 11 Developing New Market Offerings 333
Slide 112: M A R K E T I N G New-Product Development Not Just for Engineers: The Wisdom of Cross-Functional Teams I NSIGHT Chrysler typically gets new cars or trucks from concept to market in three years or less. Another important benefit of adding key people from other functions is the creation of more knowledge. Harley-Davidson pairs engineering, purchasing, manufacturing, marketing, and suppliers for the conceptual stage of design. For complex components, such as brake systems, it has tapped suppliers to lead development. Instead of hiring this expertise in-house, we’re relying on the competence that already exists within our supply base, says Leroy Zimdars, Harley-Davidson’s director of development purchasing. For all the benefits that come from the cross-functional design team process, no one should be lulled into thinking that forming a team and working on one is easy. Don H. Lester, a manager of operations for a Hoechst division, knows this firsthand. Lester has over 10 years of experience as a new-product venture team leader, and he’s developed the following criteria for staffing new-product venture teams: ■ In his best-selling book, of a New Machine, Tracy Kidder The Soul described how a group of engineers in a tightly knit team developed a revolutionary new computer for Data General. These engineers were part of a long tradition in product development, in which engineers and scientists worked in isolation, not only from the outsiders but also from other company departments, to develop original products. Although relegating new-product development solely to engineers or scientists often reaped brilliant results, it also produced crushing inefficiencies and marketing myopia—engineers driven to create a better mousetrap when potential customers didn’t really need or want a better mousetrap. The venerable tradition of engineers working in isolation finally burst apart in the late 1980s and early 1990s with the implementation of cross-functional new-product teams. Under pressure to shrink design cycles, leverage new techniques, and lower product-development costs, manufacturers are transforming product design from a solitary activity handled by engineering to a dynamic process involving the input of multiple company functions and key suppliers, too. In a survey of Design News and Purchasing magazine readers, 80 percent of respondents reported that their companies use cross-functional teams to develop new products. Chrysler, now the most profitable automaker in the world, is a pioneer in the use of these new-product teams. In the late 1980s , Chrysler began pairing car designers with cohorts in purchasing. The result: A whole layer of bureaucracy has been cut from the product-development process. Since instituting crossfunctional design teams, Chrysler has slashed new-vehicle development cycles by over 40 percent and reduced costs dramatically. For instance, in the late 1980s, development lead times for domestic automakers often spanned five years. Today, Desired team leadership style and level of expertise: The more complex the new-product concept, the greater the expertise that is desirable. Team member skills and expertise: Hoechst staffs its new venture teams with people with skills and expertise in chemistry, engineering, market research, financial analysis, and manufacturing. A different company would choose different functions to be represented. Level of interest in the particular new-product concept: Is there interest or, even better, a high level of ownership and commitment (a concept champion )? Potential for personal reward: What’s in it for me? What motivates individuals to want to participate in this effort? Diversity of team members, in the broadest sense: This includes race, gender, nationality, breadth of experience, depth of expertise,and personality.The greater the diversity,the greater the range of viewpoints and the team’s decision-making potential. ■ ■ ■ ■ Sources: Don H. Lester, Critical Success Factors for New Product Development, Research Technology Management, January February 1998, pp. 36 43;Tim Minahan, HarleyDavidson Revs Up Development Process, Design News, May 18, 1998, pp. S18 S23; Tim Minahan, Platform Teams Pair with Suppliers to Dri ve Chrysler to Better Designs, Purchasing, May 7, 1998, pp. 44S3 44S7; Design Teams Bring Radical Change in Product Development, Design News, May 18, 1998, p. S2; see also Gary S. Lynn, New Product Team Learning: Developing and Profiting from Your Knowledge Capital, California Management Review, Summer 1998, pp. 74 93. 334 Developing Marketing Strategies managers review the criteria at each gate to judge whether the project deserves to move to the next stage. The gatekeepers make one of four decisions: go, kill, hold, or recycle. Stage-gate systems put strong discipline into the innovation process, making its steps visible to all involved and clarifying the project leader’s and team’s responsibilities at each point. Some of the companies that rely on the stage-gate process are Mobil, 3M, Hewlett-Packard, and Seattle-based Fluke, a pioneer in handheld electronic instruments. Lego, the Danish toy maker, replaces about one-third of its product line every year with new products. Since the late 1980s, Lego has been relying on a stagegate new-product process to ensure that everything comes together for rapid product launches.10
Slide 113: Lay future plans Yes 1. Idea 1. Idea generation generation Is the Is the particular idea worth idea worth considering? considering? 2. Idea screening Is the product idea compatible with company objectives, strategies, and resources? Yes 3. Concept development and testing Can we find a good concept for the product that consumers say they would try? Yes 4. Marketing strategy development Can we find a cost-effective, affordable marketing strategy? Yes 5. Business analysis Will this product meet our profit goal? Yes 6. Product development Have we developed a technically and commercially sound product? Yes 7. Market testing Have product sales met expectations? Yes Yes 8. Commercialization Are product sales meeting expectations? No Yes No No No No No No Should we send the idea back for product development? No Yes Would it help to modify the product or marketing program? No No DROP FIGURE We will now look at the marketing challenges arising at each of the eight stages of the development process: idea generation, idea screening, concept development and testing, marketing strategy development, business analysis, product development, market testing, and commercialization. A preview of the various steps and decisions in the process is presented in Figure 2-1. 2-1 The New-Product-Development Decision Process M ANAGING THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS: IDEAS IDEA GENERATION The new-product development process starts with the search for ideas. Top managers should define the product and market scope and the new product’s objectives. They should state how much effort should be devoted to developing breakthrough products, modifying existing products, and copying competitors’ products. New-product ideas can come from many sources: customers, scientists, competitors, employees, channel members, and top management. The marketing concept holds that customer needs and wants are the logical place to start the search for ideas. Hippel has shown that the highest percentage of ideas for new industrial products originate with customers.11 Technical companies can learn a great deal by studying their lead users, those customers who make the most advanced use of the company’s products and who recognize the need for improvements before other customers do. Many of the best ideas come from asking customers to describe their problems with current products. For instance, in an attempt to grab a foothold in steel wool soap pads a niche dominated by SOS and Brillo, 3M arranged eight focus groups with consumers around the country. 3M asked what problems consumers found with traditional soap pads, and found the most frequent complaint was that the pads scratched expensive cookware. This finding produced the idea for the chapter 11 Developing New Market Offerings 335
Slide 114: MARKETING memo Ten Ways to Great New-Product Ideas 1. Run pizza–video parties, as Kodak does—informal sessions where groups of customers meet with company engineers and designers to discuss problems and needs and brainstorm potential solutions. 2. Allow time off—scouting time—for technical people to putter on their own pet projects.3M allows 15 percent time off;Rohm & Haas allows 10 percent. 3. Make a customer brainstorming session a standard feature of plant tours. 4. Survey your customers: Find out what they like and dislike in your and competitors’ products. 5. Undertake “fly-on-the-wall”or “camping out”research with customers,as do Fluke and Hewlett-Packard. 6. Use iterative rounds: a group of customers in one room,focusing on identifying problems, and a group of your technical people in the next room, listening and brainstorming solutions.The proposed solutions are then tested immediately on the group of customers. 7. Set up a keyword search that routinely scans trade publications in multiple countries for new-product announcements and so on. 8. Treat trade shows as intelligence missions,where you view all that is new in your industry under one roof. 9. Have your technical and marketing people visit your suppliers’ labs and spend time with their technical people—find out what’s new. 10. Set up an idea vault, and make it open and easily accessed.Allow employees to review the ideas and add constructively to them. Source: Adapted from Robert Cooper,Product Leadership:Creating and Launching Superior New Products (New York: Perseus Books, 1998). Scotch-Brite Never Scratch soap pad. Sales of the new soap pad have now exceeded 3M’s expectations by 25 percent.12 Successful companies have established a company culture that encourages every employee to seek new ways of improving production, products, and services. Toyota claims its employees submit 2 million ideas annually (about 35 suggestions per employee), over 85 percent of which are implemented. Kodak and other firms give monetary, holiday, or recognition awards to employees who submit the best ideas. Companies can also find good ideas by researching their competitors’ products and services. They can learn from distributors, suppliers, and sales representatives. They can find out what customers like and dislike in their competitors’ products. They can buy their competitors’ products, take them apart, and build better ones. Company sales representatives and intermediaries are a particularly good source of ideas. These groups have firsthand exposure to customers and are often the first to learn about competitive developments. An increasing number of companies train and reward sales representatives, distributors, and dealers for finding new ideas. Top management can be another major source of ideas. Some company leaders, such as Edwin H. Land, former CEO of Polaroid, took personal responsibility for technological innovation in their companies. On the other hand, Lewis Platt, CEO of Hewlett-Packard, believes senior management’s role is to create an environment that encourages business managers to take risks and create new growth opportunities. Under Platt’s leadership, HP has been structured as a collection of highly autonomous entrepreneurial businesses. New-product ideas can come from other sources as well, including inventors, patent attorneys, university and commercial laboratories, industrial consultants, advertising agencies, marketing research firms, and industrial publications. But although ideas can flow from many sources, their chances of receiving serious attention often depend on someone in the organization taking the role of product champion. The product idea is not likely to receive serious consideration unless it has a strong advocate. See the Marketing Memo “Ten Ways to Great New-Product Ideas.” IDEA SCREENING Any company can attract good ideas by organizing itself properly. The company should motivate its employees to submit their ideas to an idea manager whose name and phone number are widely circulated. Ideas should be written down and reviewed each week by an idea committee, which sorts them into three groups: promising ideas, marginal ideas, and rejects. Each promising idea is researched by a committee member, who reports back to the committee. The surviving promising ideas then move into a full-scale screening process. The company should reward employees submitting the best ideas. In screening ideas, the company must avoid two types of errors. A DROP-error occurs when the company dismisses an otherwise good idea. It is extremely easy to find fault with other people’s ideas. Some companies shudder when they look back at ideas they dismissed: Xerox saw the novel promise of Chester Carlson’s copying machine, but IBM and Eastman Kodak did not. IBM thought the market for personal computers was minuscule. RCA saw the opportunity of radio; the Victor Talking Machine Company did not. Marshall Field understood the unique market-development possibilities of installment buying; Endicott Johnson did not. Sears dismissed the importance of discounting; Wal-Mart and Kmart did not.13 If a company makes too many DROP-errors, its standards are too conservative. A GO-error occurs when the company permits a poor idea to move into development and commercialization. We can distinguish three types of product failures. An absolute product failure loses money; its sales do not cover variable costs. A partial product failure loses money, but its sales cover all its variable costs and some of its fixed costs. A relative product failure yields a profit that is less than the company’s target rate of return. The purpose of screening is to drop poor ideas as early as possible. The rationale is that product-development costs rise substantially with each successive development stage. Most companies require new-product ideas to be described on a standard form 336 Developing Marketing Strategies
Slide 115: that can be reviewed by a new-product committee. The description states the product idea, the target market, and the competition, and roughly estimates market size, product price, development time and costs, manufacturing costs, and rate of return. The executive committee then reviews each idea against a set of criteria. Does the product meet a need? Would it offer superior value? Can it be distinctively advertised? Does the company have the necessary know-how and capital? Will the new product deliver the expected sales volume, sales growth, and profit? The surviving ideas can be rated using a weighted-index method like that in Table 2.2. The first column lists factors required for successful product launches, and the second column assigns importance weights. The third column scores the product idea on a scale from 0 to 1.0, with 1.0 the highest score. The final step multiplies each factor’s importance by the product score to obtain an overall rating. In this example, the product idea scores .69, which places it in the “good idea” level. The purpose of this basic rating device is to promote systematic product-idea evaluation and discussion. It is not supposed to make the decision for management. As the new-product idea moves through development, the company will constantly need to revise its estimate of the product’s overall probability of success, using the following formula: Overall probability of success Probability of technical completion Probability of commercialization given technical completion Probability of economic success given commercialization For example, if the three probabilities are estimated as .50, .65, and .74, respectively, the company would conclude that the overall probability of success is .24. The company then has to judge whether this probability is high enough to warrant continued development. M ANAGING THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS: CONCEPT TO STRATEGY CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING Attractive ideas must be refined into testable product concepts. A product idea is a possible product the company might offer to the market. A product concept is an elaborated version of the idea expressed in meaningful consumer terms. Concept Development We shall illustrate concept development with the following situation: A large food processing company gets the idea of producing a powder to add to milk to increase its nutritional value and taste. This is a product idea. But consumers do not buy product ideas; they buy product concepts. A product idea can be turned into several concepts. The first question is: Who will use this product? The powder can be aimed at infants, children, teenagers, young or middle-aged adults, or older adults. Second, what primary benefit should this product provide? Taste, nutrition, refreshment, energy? Third, when will people consume this drink? Breakfast, midmorning, lunch, midafternoon, dinner, late evening? By answering these questions, a company can form several concepts: ■ ■ ■ Concept 1: An instant breakfast drink for adults who want a quick nutritious breakfast without preparing a breakfast. Concept 2: A tasty snack drink for children to drink as a midday refreshment. Concept 3: A health supplement for older adults to drink in the late evening before they go to bed. chapter 11 Developing New Market Offerings Each concept represents a category concept that defines the product’s competition. An instant breakfast drink would compete against bacon and eggs, breakfast cereals, 337
Slide 116: TABLE 2.2 Product Success Requirements Unique or superior product High performance-to-cost ratio High marketing dollar support Lack of strong competition Total Product-Idea Rating Device Relative Weight (a) .40 .30 .20 .10 1.00 Product Score (b) .8 .6 .7 .5 Product Rating (c a b) .32 .18 .14 .05 .69* *Rating scale: .00–.30 poor; .31–.60 fair; .61–.80 good. Minimum acceptance rate: .61 (a) Product-positioning map (breakfast market) Expensive Bacon and eggs Cold cereal Quick Slow Pancakes Hot Instant cereal breakfast Inexpensive (b) Brand-positioning map (instant breakfast market) High price per ounce Brand C Low in calories Brand A Low price per ounce FIGURE 2-2 Brand B High in calories coffee and pastry, and other breakfast alternatives. A tasty snack drink would compete against soft drinks, fruit juices, and other thirst quenchers. Suppose the instant-breakfast-drink concept looks best. The next task is to show where this powdered product would stand in relation to other breakfast products. Figure 2-2 uses the two dimensions of cost and preparation time to create a product-positioning map for the breakfast drink. An instant breakfast drink offers low cost and quick preparation. Its nearest competitor is cold cereal; its most distant competitor is bacon and eggs. These contrasts can be utilized in communicating and promoting the concept to the market. Next, the product concept has to be turned into a brand concept. Figure 2-2 is a brandpositioning map showing the current positions of three existing brands of instant breakfast drinks. The company needs to decide how much to charge and how calorific to make its drink. The new brand would be distinctive in the medium-price, medium-calorie market or in the high-price, high-calorie market. The company would not want to position it next to an existing brand, where it would have to fight for market share. Concept Testing Concept testing involves presenting the product concept to appropriate target consumers and getting their reactions. The concepts can be presented symbolically or physically. However, the more the tested concepts resemble the final product or experience, the more dependable concept testing is. In the past, creating physical prototypes was costly and time-consuming, but computer-aided design and manufacturing programs have changed that. Today firms can design alternative physical products (for example, small appliances or toys) on a computer, and then produce plastic models of each. Potential consumers can view the plastic models and give their reactions.14 Companies are also using virtual reality to test product concepts. Virtual reality programs use computers and sensory devices (such as gloves or goggles) to simulate reality. Gadd International has developed a research tool called Simul-Shop, a CDROM virtual reality approach that re-creates shopping situations in which researchers can test consumer reactions to factors such as product positioning, store layouts, and package designs. Suppose a cereal marketer wants to test reactions to a new package design and store shelf positioning. Using Simul-Shop on a standard desktop PC, test shoppers begin their shopping spree with a screen showing the outside of a grocery store. They click to enter the virtual store and are guided to the appropriate store section. Once there, they can scan the shelf, pick up various cereal packages, rotate them, study the labels—even look around to see what is on the shelf behind them. A Gadd’s research director explains: “Once users move toward the item we want to test, [they] can look at different packaging, shelf layouts, and package colors. Depending on the activity, we can even ask users why they did what they did.”15 Many companies today use customer-driven engineering to design new products. Customer-driven engineering attaches high importance to incorporating customer preferences in the final design. Here’s how one company uses the World Wide Web to enhance its customer-driven engineering: Product and Brand Positioning 338 Developing Marketing Strategies
Slide 117: ■ National Semiconductor Based in Santa Clara, California, National Semiconductor has used “applets”—simple multimedia applications written in Java—and parametric search technologies to make its entire product database available on the Web. With the means to track customer searches, National Semiconductor can determine the performance metrics that are most important to them. Sometimes, says the company’s Web services manager, it’s more important to know when a customer didn’t find a product than when he did. That information helps National Semiconductor shrink the time needed to identify market niches and to develop new products. It’s basically high-quality market research—for free.16 Concept testing entails presenting consumers with an elaborated version of the concept. Here is the elaboration of concept 1 in our milk example: Our product is a powdered mixture that is added to milk to make an instant breakfast that gives the person all the needed nutrition along with good taste and high convenience. The product would be offered in three flavors (chocolate, vanilla, and strawberry) and would come in individual packets, six to a box, at $2.49 a box. After receiving this information, consumers respond to the following questions: Question 1. Are the benefits clear to you and believable? 2. Do you see this product solving a problem or filling a need for you? 3. Do other products currently meet this need and satisfy you? Product Dimension Measured Communicability and believability. If the scores are low, the concept must be refined or revised. Need level. The stronger the need, the higher the expected consumer interest. Gap level. The greater the gap, the higher the expected consumer interest. The need level can be multiplied by the gap level to produce a need-gap score. A high needgap score means that the consumer sees the product as filling a strong need that is not satisfied by available alternatives. Perceived value. The higher the perceived value, the higher the expected consumer interest. Purchase intention. This would be high for consumers who answered the previous three questions positively. User targets, purchase occasions, and purchasing frequency. 4. Is the price reasonable in relation to the value? 5. Would you (definitely, probably, probably not, definitely not) buy the product? 6. Who would use this product, and when and how often will the product be used? The respondents’ answers indicate whether the concept has a broad and strong consumer appeal, what products this new product competes against, and which consumers are the best targets. The need-gap levels and purchase-intention levels can be checked against norms for the product category to see whether the concept appears to be a winner, a long shot, or a loser. One food manufacturer rejects any concept that draws a definitely-would-buy score of less than 40 percent. Conjoint Analysis Consumer preferences for alternative product concepts can be measured through conjoint analysis, a method for deriving the utility values that consumers attach to varying levels of a product’s attributes. Respondents are shown different hypothetical offers formed by combining varying levels of the attributes, then asked to rank the various offers. Management can identify the most appealing offer and the estimated market share and profit the company might realize. chapter 11 Developing New Market Offerings 339
Slide 118: Green and Wind have illustrated this approach in connection with developing a new spot-removing carpet-cleaning agent for home use.17 Suppose the new-product marketer is considering five design elements: ■ ■ ■ ■ Three package designs (A, B, C—see Figure 2-3) Three brand names (K2R, Glory, Bissell) Three prices ($1.19, $1.39, $1.59) A possible Good Housekeeping seal (yes, no) A possible money-back guarantee (yes, no) A B C ■ FIGURE 2-3 Samples for Conjoint Analysis Although the researcher can form 108 possible product concepts (3 3 3 2 2), it would be too much to ask consumers to rank 108 concepts. A sample of, say, 18 contrasting product concepts can be chosen, and consumers would rank them from the most preferred to the least preferred. The marketer now uses a statistical program to derive the consumer’s utility functions for each of the five attributes (Figure 2-4). Utility ranges between zero and one; the higher the utility, the stronger the consumer’s preference for that level of the attribute. Looking at packaging, we see that package B is the most favored, followed by C and then A (A hardly has any utility). The preferred names are Bissell, K2R, and Glory, in that order. The consumer’s utility varies inversely with price. A Good Housekeeping seal is preferred, but it does not add that much utility and may not be worth the effort to obtain it. A money-back guarantee is strongly preferred. Putting these results together, we can see that the consumer’s most desired offer would be package design B, with the brand name Bissell, selling at the price of $1.19, with a Good Housekeeping seal and a money-back guarantee. We can also determine the relative importance of each attribute to this consumer— the difference between the highest and lowest utility level for that attribute. The greater the difference, the more important the attribute. Clearly, this consumer sees price and package design as the most important attributes followed by money-back guarantee, brand name, and last, a Good Housekeeping seal. When preference data are collected from a sufficient sample of target consumers, the data can be used to estimate the market share any specific offer is likely to achieve, given any assumptions about competitive response. The company, however, may not launch the market offer that promises to gain the greatest market share because of cost considerations. The most customer-appealing offer is not always the most profitable offer to make. Under some conditions, researchers will collect the data not with a full-profile description of each offer but by presenting two factors at a time. For example, respondents may be shown a table with three price levels and three package types and asked which of the nine combinations they would like most, followed by which one they would prefer next, and so on. They would then be shown a further table consisting of trade-offs between two other variables. The trade-off approach may be easier to use when there are many variables and possible offers. However, it is less realistic in that respondents are focusing on only two variables at a time. Conjoint analysis has become one of the most popular concept development and testing tools. Marriott designed its Courtyard hotel concept with the benefit of conjoint analysis. Other applications have included airline travel services, ethical drug design, and credit-card features. MARKETING-STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT After testing, the new-product manager must develop a preliminary marketing-strategy plan for introducing the new product into the market. The plan consists of three parts. The first part describes the target market’s size, structure, and behavior; the planned product positioning; and the sales, market share, and profit goals sought in the first few years: Developing Marketing Strategies The target market for the instant breakfast drink is families with children who are receptive to a new, convenient, nutritious, and inexpensive form of breakfast. The company’s brand will be positioned at the higher-price, higher-quality end of the instant-breakfast-drink category. The company will aim initially 340
Slide 119: Package Design 1.0 1.0 Brand Name 1.0 Retail Price FIGURE 2-4 Utility Functions Based on Conjoint Analysis Utility Utility 0 A B C 0 K2R Glory Bissell Utility 0 $1.19 $1.39 $1.59 Good Housekeeping Seal? 1.0 1.0 Money-Back Guarantee? Utility 0 No Yes Utility 0 No Yes to sell 500,000 cases or 10 percent of the market, with a loss in the first year not exceeding $1.3 million. The second year will aim for 700,000 cases or 14 percent of the market, with a planned profit of $2.2 million. The second part outlines the planned price, distribution strategy, and marketing budget for the first year: The product will be offered in chocolate, vanilla, and strawberry in individual packets of six to a box at a retail price of $2.49 a box. There will be 48 boxes per case, and the case price to distributors will be $24. For the first two months, dealers will be offered one case free for every four cases bought, plus cooperative-advertising allowances. Free samples will be distributed door to door. Coupons for 20¢ off will appear in newspapers. The total sales-promotional budget will be $2.9 million. An advertising budget of $6 million will be split 50:50 between national and local. Two-thirds will go into television and one-third into newspapers. Advertising copy will emphasize the benefit concepts of nutrition and convenience. The advertising-execution concept will revolve around a small boy who drinks instant breakfast and grows strong. During the first year, $100,000 will be spent on marketing research to buy store audits and consumer-panel information to monitor market reaction and buying rates. The third part of the marketing-strategy plan describes the long-run sales and profit goals and marketing-mix strategy over time: The company intends to win a 25 percent market share and realize an after-tax return on investment of 12 percent. To achieve this return, product quality will start high and be improved over time through technical research. Price will initially be set at a high level and lowered gradually to expand the market and meet competition. The total promotion budget will be boosted each year about 20 percent, with the initial advertising–sales promotion split chapter 11 Developing New Market Offerings 341
Slide 120: (a) One-time purchased product of 65:35 evolving eventually to 50:50. Marketing research will be reduced to $60,000 per year after the first year. BUSINESS ANALYSIS After management develops the product concept and marketing strategy, it can evaluate the proposal’s business attractiveness. Management needs to prepare sales, cost, and profit projections to determine whether they satisfy company objectives. If they do, the product concept can move to the product-development stage. As new information comes in, the business analysis will undergo revision and expansion. Time (b) Infrequently purchased product Sales Estimating Total Sales Management needs to estimate whether sales will be high enough to yield a satisfactory profit. Total estimated sales are the sum of estimated first-time sales, replacement sales, and repeat sales. Sales-estimation methods depend on whether the product is a one-time purchase (such as an engagement ring or retirement home), an infrequently purchased product, or a frequently purchased product. For one-time purchased products, sales rise at the beginning, peak, and later approach zero as the number of potential buyers is exhausted (Figure 2-5). If new buyers keep entering the market, the curve will not go down to zero. Infrequently purchased products—such as automobiles, toasters, and industrial equipment—exhibit replacement cycles dictated by physical wearing out or by obsolescence associated with changing styles, features, and performance. Sales forecasting for this product category calls for estimating first-time sales and replacement sales separately (Figure 2-5). Frequently purchased products, such as consumer and industrial nondurables, have product life-cycle sales resembling Figure 2-5. The number of first-time buyers initially increases and then decreases as fewer buyers are left (assuming a fixed population). Repeat purchases occur soon, providing that the product satisfies some buyers. The sales curve eventually falls to a plateau representing a level of steady repeat-purchase volume; by this time, the product is no longer a new product. In estimating a new product’s sales, the manager’s first task is to estimate first-time purchases of the new product in each period. A variety of techniques is available. To estimate replacement sales, management has to research the product’s survival-age distribution—that is, the number of units that fail in year one, two, three, and so on. The low end of the distribution indicates when the first replacement sales will take place. The actual timing of replacement will be influenced by a variety of factors. Because replacement sales are difficult to estimate before the product is in use, some manufacturers base the decision to launch a new product solely on the estimate of first-time sales. For a frequently purchased new product, the seller has to estimate repeat sales as well as first-time sales. A high rate of repeat purchasing means that customers are satisfied; sales are likely to stay high even after all first-time purchases take place. The seller should note the percentage of repeat purchases that take place in each repeatpurchase class: those who rebuy once, twice, three times, and so on. Some products and brands are bought a few times and dropped.18 Replacement sales Sales Time (c) Frequently purchased product Repeat purchase sales Sales Time FIGURE 2-5 Product Life-Cycle Sales for Three Types of Products Estimating Costs and Profits After preparing the sales forecast, management should estimate expected costs and profits. Costs are estimated by the R&D, manufacturing, marketing, and finance departments. Table 2.3 illustrates a five-year projection of sales, costs, and profits for the instant breakfast drink. Row 1 shows the projected sales revenue over the five-year period. The company expects to sell $11,889,000 (approximately 500,000 cases at $24 per case) in the first year. Behind this sales projection is a set of assumptions about the rate of market growth, the company’s market share, and the factory-realized price. Row 2 shows the cost of goods sold, which hovers around 33 percent of sales revenue. This cost is found by estimating the average cost of labor, ingredients, and packaging per case. Row 3 shows the expected gross margin, which is the difference between sales revenue and cost of goods sold. 342 Developing Marketing Strategies
Slide 121: Year 0 1. Sales revenue 2. Cost of goods sold 3. Gross margin 4. Development costs 5. Mraketing cos 6. edAlocat rvh .7 s orG tn c i ub .8 ratnem lp uS y oc i b .9 teN r noc i ub .01 de tnuocsiD r b )%51( .1 e vitalum C d n ocs h w lf 3,50 0 0 3,50 3,50 0 0 1,89 3,50 0 8,0 1,538 3,50 6,40 $0 0 0 Year 1 $11,889 3,981 7,908 0 8,25 1,965 1,28 0 1,28 1,3 4,613 1,69 2,3 2,85 2,3 1,86 0 Year 2 $15,381 5,150 10,231 0 13,64 3,249 2,853 0 2,853 1,87 2,9 Year 3 $19,654 6,581 13,073 0 Year 4 $28,253 9,461 18,792 0 Year 5 $32, 491 10,880 21,611 4,10 0 4,10 2,34 1,045 1,298 4,716 4,716 2,346 3,64 TABLE 2.3 Row 4 shows anticipated development costs of $3.5 million, including productdevelopment cost, marketing research costs, and manufacturing-development costs. Row 5 shows the estimated marketing costs over the five-year period to cover advertising, sales promotion, and marketing research and an amount allocated for sales force coverage and marketing administration. Row 6 shows the allocated overhead to this new product to cover its share of the cost of executive salaries, heat, light, and so on. Row 7, the gross contribution, is found by subtracting the preceding three costs from the gross margin. Row 8, supplementary contribution, lists any change in income from other company products caused by the introduction of the new product. It has two components. Dragalong income is additional income on other company products resulting from adding this product to the line. Cannibalized income is the reduced income on other company products resulting from adding this product to the line.19 Table 2.3 assumes no supplementary contributions. Row 9 shows the net contribution, which in this case is the same as the gross contribution. Row 10 shows the discounted contribution—that is, the present value of each future contribution discounted at 15 percent per annum. For example, the company will not receive $4,716,000 until the fifth year. This amount is worth only $2,346,000 today if the company can earn 15 percent on its money through other investments.20 Finally, row 11 shows the cumulative discounted cash flow, which is the cumulation of the annual contributions in row 10. Two things are of central interest. The first is the maximum investment exposure, which is the highest loss that the project can create. We see that the company will be in a maximum loss position of $4,613,000 in year 1. The second is the payback period, which is the time when the company recovers all of its investment including the built-in return of 15 percent. The payback period here is approximately three and a half years. Management therefore has to decide whether to risk a maximum investment loss of $4.6 million and a possible payback period of three and a half years. Companies use other financial measures to evaluate the merit of a new-product proposal. The simplest is break-even analysis, in which management estimates how many units of the product the company would have to sell to break even with the given price and cost structure. If management believes sales could easily reach the break-even number, it is likely to move the project into product development. The most complex method of estimating profit is risk analysis. Here three estimates (optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely) are obtained for each uncertain variable Projected Five-Year Cash-Flow Statement (in thousands of dollars) chapter 11 Developing New Market Offerings 343
Slide 122: affecting profitability under an assumed marketing environment and marketing strategy for the planning period. The computer simulates possible outcomes and computes a rate-of-return probability distribution showing the range of possible rates of returns and their probabilities.21 M ANAGING THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS: DEVELOPMENT TO COMMERCIALIZATION PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT If the product concept passes the business test, it moves to R&D or engineering to be developed into a physical product. Up to now it has existed only as a word description, a drawing, or a prototype. This step involves a large jump in investment that dwarfs the costs incurred in the earlier stages. At this stage the company will determine whether the product idea can be translated into a technically and commercially feasible product. If it cannot, the accumulated project cost will be lost except for any useful information gained in the process. The job of translating target customer requirements into a working prototype is helped by a set of methods known as quality function deployment (QFD). The methodology takes the list of desired customer attributes (CAs) generated by market research and turns them into a list of engineering attributes (EAs) that the engineers can use. For example, customers of a proposed truck may want a certain acceleration rate (CA). Engineers can turn this into the required horsepower and other engineering equivalents (EAs). The methodology permits measuring the trade-offs and costs of providing the customer requirements. A major contribution of QFD is that it improves communication between marketers, engineers, and the manufacturing people.22 The R&D department will develop one or more physical versions of the product concept. Its goal is to find a prototype that consumers see as embodying the key attributes described in the product-concept statement, that performs safely under normal use and conditions, and that can be produced within the budgeted manufacturing costs. Developing and manufacturing a successful prototype can take days, weeks, months, or even years. Designing a new commercial aircraft takes several years of development work, yet sophisticated virtual reality technology is speeding the process. By designing and testing product designs through simulation, for example, companies achieve the flexibility to respond to new information and to resolve uncertainties by quickly exploring alternatives. ■ Boeing At Boeing, the all-digital development of the 777 aircraft made use of a computer-generated “human” who would climb inside the three-dimensional design on-screen to show how difficult maintenance access would be for a live mechanic. Such computer modeling allowed engineers to spot design errors that otherwise would have remained undiscovered until a person began to work on a physical prototype. By avoiding the time and cost associated with building physical prototypes at several stages, Boeing’s development process has acquired the flexibility to evaluate a wider range of design options than previously thought possible.23 344 Developing Marketing Strategies Even developing a new taste formula can take time. Maxwell House discovered that consumers wanted coffee that was “bold, vigorous, and deep tasting.” Its laboratory technicians spent over four months working with various coffee blends and flavors to formulate a corresponding taste that turned out to be too expensive to produce. The company cost-reduced the blend to meet the target manufacturing cost. The change compromised the taste, and the new brand did not sell well in the market. With the rise of the World Wide Web, there is a need for more rapid prototyping and more flexible development processes. Michael Schrage, research associate at MIT’s
Slide 123: MARKETING FOR THE MILLENNIUM Web site for testing by the development staff. Although many of the intended functions were not yet available, the prototype captured enough of the essence of the new product to generTraditional [product] development processes . . . are highly strucate meaningful feedback from members of the development tured. A future product is designed, developed, transferred to February 22, less than two weeks later, the team group. On production, and rolled out to the market in clearly articulated, updated version, Beta 1, again for internal developposted an sequential phases In contrast, fle product development .... xible ment staff only. In early March, with major bugs in the product delays until as late as possible any commitment to a final de- out, the first public release, Beta 2, appeared on worked sign configuration.The concept development phase and the imNetscape’s Internet Web site. Additional public releases followed plementation phase the translation of concept thereafter every few weeks until the official release date in Auinto reality thus overlap instead of following each other sequengust, with gradual refinements appearing in each beta iteration. tially. By accepting the need for and reducing the cost of sequence of beta versions was extremely useful to The changes,companies are able to respond to new information that because it enabled the development team to react Netscape arises during the course of a product’s development. both to feedback from users and to changes in the marketplace When technology, product features, and competitive con- team was still working on the Web browser’s design. while the ditions are predictable or evolve slowly, a traditional Beta users by and large are more sophisticated than Netscape’s development process works well. But in turbulent business customer base and therefore are a valuable source of broader environments, a sequential approach . . . is more than inefficient; . . . the team also paid careful attention to competinformation. it risks creating an obsolete product one that fails to address ing products. Netscape continually monitored the latest beta customer needs and to make use of the latest technologies. of Microsoft’s competing product, Explorer, to compare versions [Netscape faced just such a turbulent environment when it de- and format. features veloped the second generation of its Navigator Web browser.] To facilitate the integration of the vast amounts of informaIndustry giant Microsoft, which had already developed its own tion generated during the project, Netscape set up a project flexible product-development process, was readying aWeb site on its Intranet. The site contained the product’s develproduct to compete with Navigator .... opment schedule and specifications,each of which was updated Netscape introduced Navigator 2.0 to the market in Janu- dates changed or new features were added. In addias target ary of 1996 and immediately thereafter began to develop it contained bulletin boards through which team members tion, the next version of the Web browser, Navigator 3.0, which was to monitor the evolution of various parts of the design, notcould be released in August of the same year.The Netscape development ing the completion of specific features and logging problems in group which included staff from engineering, marketing, and the existing version. Once the Navigator moved to public beta customer support produced the first prototype quickly. By these Intranet features became especially valuable betesting, February 14, just six weeks into the project, it had put acause O increasing amount of information then had to be rebeta an version of the program up on the company’s internalceived, classified, and processed project .... Developing Products on Internet Time: The Story of Netscape’s Navigator Source: Adapted from Marco Iansiti and Alan MacCormack, Developing Products on Internet Time, Harvard Business Review, September October 1997, pp. 108 17. media lab, has correctly predicted: “Effective prototyping may be the most valuable ‘core competence’ an innovative organization can hope to have.”24 This has certainly been true for software companies such as Microsoft, Netscape, and the hundreds of Silicon Valley start-ups. Although Schrage says that specification-driven companies require that every “i” be dotted and “t” be crossed before anything can be shown to the next level of management, prototype-driven companies—such as Yahoo!, Microsoft, and Netscape—cherish quick-and-dirty tests and experiments. See the Marketing for the Millennium box, “Developing Products on Internet Time: The Story of Netscape’s Navigator.” Lab scientists must not only design the product’s functional characteristics but also communicate its psychological aspects through physical cues. How will consumers react to different colors, sizes, and weights? In the case of a mouthwash, a yellow color supports an “antiseptic” claim (Listerine), a red color supports a “refreshing” claim (Lavoris), and a green or blue color supports a “cool” claim (Scope). Marketers chapter 11 Developing New Market Offerings 345
Slide 124: need to supply lab people with information on what attributes consumers seek and how consumers judge whether these attributes are present. When the prototypes are ready, they must be put through rigorous functional tests and customer tests. Alpha testing is the name given to testing the product within the firm to see how it performs in different applications. After refining the prototype further, the company moves to beta testing. It enlists a set of customers to use the prototype and give feedback on their experiences. Beta testing is most useful when the potential customers are heterogeneous, the potential applications are not fully known, several decision makers are involved in purchasing the product, and opinion leadership from early adopters is sought.25 Here are some of the functional tests that products go through before they enter the marketplace: ■ Shaw Industries At Shaw Industries, temps are paid $5 an hour to pace up and down five long rows of sample carpets for up to eight hours a day, logging an average of 14 miles each. One regular reads three mysteries a week while pacing and shed 40 pounds in two years. Shaw Industries counts walkers’ steps and figures that 20,000 steps equal several years of average wear. Apple Computer Apple Computer assumes the worst for its PowerBook customers and submits the computers to a battery of indignities: It drenches the computers in Pepsi and other sodas, smears them with mayonnaise, and bakes them in ovens at temperatures of 140 degrees or more to simulate conditions in a car trunk. Gillette At Gillette, 200 volunteers from various departments come to work unshaven each day, troop to the second floor of the company’s South Boston manufacturing and research plant, and enter small booths with a sink and mirror. There they take instructions from technicians on the other side of a small window as to which razor, shaving cream, or aftershave to use, and then they fill out questionnaires. “We bleed so you’ll get a good shave at home,” says one Gillette employee.26 ■ ■ Companies that position products on the basis of their durability even incorporate functional product testing into their advertising: ■ Corelle Dinnerware High durability was the focus of some unusual advertising for Corning’s Consumer Products Division’s Corelle dinnerware. On five city buses in Phoenix, out-of-home media network TDI constructed a special Plexiglas cage, four feet long by one foot high, that housed a Corelle plate. Within the cage, the plate was free to roll back and forth as the bus accelerated, decelerated, and took turns.27 346 Developing Marketing Strategies Consumer testing can take a variety of forms, from bringing consumers into a laboratory to giving them samples to use in their homes. In-home placement tests are common with products ranging from ice cream flavors to new appliances. When DuPont developed its new synthetic carpeting, it installed free carpeting in several homes in exchange for the homeowners’ willingness to report their likes and dislikes about the carpeting. When testing cutting-edge products such as electric cars, marketers must be as creative as the product designers and engineers: Rügen, a small island in the Baltic Sea, has become the testing ground for the cars of the future. Fifty-eight residents of the former East German island have gone from driving decrepit gas-guzzling cars to sleek new electric models manufactured by BMW, Daimler Chrysler, and Audi. The Rügen tests have made the auto manufacturers aware of several problems: Rügen drivers have found that trips of any length must be carefully mapped out because of the batteries’ limited life. Recharging the batteries can consume anywhere from a half hour to an entire evening.28 Consumer preferences can be measured in several ways. Suppose a consumer is shown three items—A, B, and C, such as three cameras, three insurance plans, or three advertisements.
Slide 125: ■ The rank-order method asks the consumer to rank the three items in order of preference. The consumer might respond with A B C. Although this method has the advantage of simplicity, it does not reveal how intensely the consumer feels about each item nor whether the consumer likes any item very much. It is also difficult to use this method when there are many objects to be ranked. The paired-comparison method calls for presenting pairs of items and asking the consumer which one is preferred in each pair. Thus the consumer could be presented with the pairs AB, AC, and BC and say that she prefers A to B, A to C, and B to C. Then we could conclude that A B C. People find it easy to state their preference between two items, and this method allows the consumer to focus on the two items, noting their differences and similarities. The monadic-rating method asks the consumer to rate liking of each product on a scale. Suppose a seven-point scale is used, where 1 signifies intense dislike, 4 indifference, and 7 intense like. Suppose the consumer returns the following ratings: A 6, B 5, C 3. We can derive the individual’s preference order (i.e., A B C) and even know the qualitative levels of the person’s preference for each and the rough distance between preferences. ■ ■ MARKET TESTING After management is satisfied with functional and psychological performance, the product is ready to be dressed up with a brand name and packaging, and put to a market test. The new product is introduced into an authentic setting to learn how large the market is and how consumers and dealers react to handling, using, and repurchasing the product. Not all companies undertake market testing. A company officer at Revlon, Inc., stated: “In our field—primarily higher-priced cosmetics not geared for mass distribution—it would be unnecessary for us to market test. When we develop a new product, say an improved liquid makeup, we know it’s going to sell because we’re familiar with the field. And we’ve got 1,500 demonstrators in department stores to promote it.” Most companies, however, know that market testing can yield valuable information about buyers, dealers, marketing program effectiveness, and market potential. The main issues are: How much market testing should be done, and what kind(s)? The amount of market testing is influenced by the investment cost and risk on the one hand, and the time pressure and research cost on the other. High investment–high risk products, where the chance of failure is high, must be market tested; the cost of the market tests will be an insignificant percentage of the total project cost. High-risk products—those that create new-product categories (first instant breakfast drink) or have novel features (first fluoride toothpaste)—warrant more market testing than modified products (another toothpaste brand). Procter & Gamble spent two years market testing its new no-calorie fat substitute, Olestra. While the Food and Drug Administration approved the new product in 1996, a very small percentage (estimated at 2 percent) of consumers experienced stomach problems and the indelicately named side effect, “anal leakage.” The company made a slight change in the formula, but even after test marketing has proved that this side effect does not occur, the FDA requires that every package containing food made with Olestra bear a label that reads: “This product contains Olestra. Olestra may cause abdominal cramping and loose stools. Olestra inhibits the absorption of some vitamins and other nutrients. . . . ”29 But the amount of market testing may be severely reduced if the company is under great time pressure because the season is just starting or because competitors are about to launch their brands. The company may therefore prefer to face the risk of a product failure to the risk of losing distribution or market penetration on a highly successful product. Next we describe consumer-goods market testing and business-goods testing. Consumer-Goods Market Testing In testing consumer products, the company seeks to estimate four variables: trial, first repeat, adoption, and purchase frequency. The company hopes to find all these variables at high levels. In some cases, it will find many consumers trying the product chapter 11 Developing New Market Offerings 347
Slide 126: but few rebuying it. Or it might find high permanent adoption but low purchase frequency (as with gourmet frozen foods). Here we describe the major methods of consumer-goods market testing, from the least to the most costly. Sales-Wave Research. In sales-wave research, consumers who initially try the product at no cost are reoffered the product, or a competitor’s product, at slightly reduced prices. They might be reoffered the product as many as three to five times (sales waves), with the company noting how many customers selected that company’s product again and their reported level of satisfaction. Sales-wave research can also include exposing consumers to one or more advertising concepts to see the impact of that advertising on repeat purchase. Sales-wave research can be implemented quickly, conducted with a fair amount of security, and carried out without final packaging and advertising. However, sales-wave research does not indicate the trial rates that would be achieved with different salespromotion incentives, because the consumers are preselected to try the product. Nor does it indicate the brand’s power to gain distribution and favorable shelf position. Simulated Test Marketing. Simulated test marketing calls for finding 30 to 40 qualified shoppers and questioning them about brand familiarity and preferences in a specific product category. These people are then invited to a brief screening of both well-known and new commercials or print ads. One ad advertises the new product, but it is not singled out for attention. Consumers receive a small amount of money and are invited into a store where they may buy any items. The company notes how many consumers buy the new brand and competing brands. This provides a measure of the ad’s relative effectiveness against competing ads in stimulating trial. Consumers are asked the reasons for their purchases or nonpurchases. Those who did not buy the new brand are given a free sample. Some weeks later, they are reinterviewed by phone to determine product attitudes, usage, satisfaction, and repurchase intention and are offered an opportunity to repurchase any products. This method has several advantages. It gives fairly accurate results on advertising effectiveness and trial rates (and repeat rates if extended) in a much shorter time and at a fraction of the cost of using real test markets. Pretests often take only three months and may cost $250,000.30 The results are incorporated into new-product forecasting models to project ultimate sales levels. Marketing research firms report surprisingly accurate predictions of sales levels of products that are subsequently launched in the market.31 Controlled Test Marketing. In this method, a research firm manages a panel of stores that will carry new products for a fee. The company with the new product specifies the number of stores and geographic locations it wants to test. The research firm delivers the product to the participating stores and controls shelf position; number of facings, displays, and point-of-purchase promotions; and pricing. Sales results can be measured through electronic scanners at the checkout. The company can also evaluate the impact of local advertising and promotions during the test. Controlled test marketing allows the company to test the impact of in-store factors and limited advertising on buying behavior. A sample of consumers can be interviewed later to give their impressions of the product. The company does not have to use its own sales force, give trade allowances, or “buy” distribution. However, controlled test marketing provides no information on how to sell the trade on carrying the new product. This technique also exposes the product and its features to competitors’ scrutiny. Test Markets. The ultimate way to test a new consumer product is to put it into full-blown test markets. The company chooses a few representative cities, and the sales force tries to sell the trade on carrying the product and giving it good shelf exposure. The company puts on a full advertising and promotion campaign in these markets similar to the one that it would use in national marketing. A full-scale test can cost over $1 million, depending on the number of test cities, the test duration, and the amount of data the company wants to collect. Management faces several questions: Developing Marketing Strategies 1. How many test cities? Most tests use between two and six cities. The greater the maximum possible loss, the greater the number of contending marketing 348
Slide 127: strategies, the greater the regional differences, and the greater the chance of test-market interference by competitors, the greater the number of cities that should be used. 2. Which cities? Each company must develop test-city selection criteria. One company looks for test cities that have diversified industry, good media coverage, cooperative chain stores, average competitive activity, and no evidence of being overtested. 3. Length of test? Market tests last anywhere from a few months to a year. The longer the product’s average repurchase period, the longer the test period necessary to observe repeat-purchase rates. This period should be cut down if competitors are rushing to the market. 4. What information? Warehouse shipment data will show gross inventory buying but will not indicate weekly sales at the retail level. Store audits will show retail sales and competitors’ market shares but will not reveal buyer characteristics. Consumer panels will indicate which people are buying which brands and their loyalty and switching rates. Buyer surveys will yield in-depth information about consumer attitudes, usage, and satisfaction. 5. What action to take? If the test markets show high trial and repurchase rates, the product should be launched nationally. If the test markets show a high trial rate and a low repurchase rate, customers are not satisfied and the product should be redesigned or dropped. If the test markets show a low trial rate and a high repurchase rate, the product is satisfying but more people have to try it. This means increasing advertising and sales promotion. If trial and repurchase rates are both low, the product should be abandoned. Test marketing permits testing the impact of alternative marketing plans. ColgatePalmolive used a different marketing mix in each of four cities to market a new soap product: (1) an average amount of advertising coupled with free samples distributed door to door, (2) heavy advertising plus samples, (3) an average amount of advertising linked with mailed redeemable coupons, and (4) an average amount of advertising with no special introductory offer. The third alternative generated the best profit level, although not the highest sales level. In spite of the benefits of test marketing, many companies question its value today. In a fast-changing marketplace, companies are eager to get to market first. Test marketing slows them down and reveals their plans to competitors. Procter & Gamble began testing a ready-to-spread Duncan Hines frosting. General Mills took note and rushed out its own Betty Crocker brand, which now dominates the category. Furthermore, aggressive competitors increasingly take steps to spoil the test markets. When Pepsi tested its Mountain Dew sport drink in Minneapolis, Gatorade counterattacked furiously with coupons and ads.32 Many companies today are skipping test marketing and relying on faster and more economical market-testing methods. General Mills now prefers to launch new products in perhaps 25 percent of the country, an area too large for rivals to disrupt. Managers review retail scanner data, which tell them within days how the product is doing and what corrective fine-tuning to do. Colgate-Palmolive often launches a new product in a set of small “lead countries” and keeps rolling it out if it proves successful. Nonetheless, managers should consider all the angles before deciding to dispense with test marketing. In this case, not testing a formula modification before the product launch had disastrous—and soggy—results: ■ Nabisco Foods Company Nabisco hit a marketing home run with its Teddy Grahams, teddy-bear-shaped graham crackers in several different flavors. So, the company decided to extend Teddy Grahams into a new area. In 1989, it introduced chocolate, cinnamon, and honey versions of Breakfast Bears Graham Cereal. When the product came out, however, consumers didn’t like the taste enough, so the product developers went back to the kitchen and modified the formula, but didn’t test it. The result was a disaster. Although the cereal may chapter 11 Developing New Market Offerings 349
Slide 128: have tasted better, it no longer stayed crunchy in milk, as the advertising on the box promised. Instead, it left a gooey mess of graham mush on the bottom of cereal bowls. Supermarket managers soon refused to restock the cereal, and Nabisco executives decided it was too late to reformulate the product again. So a promising new product was killed through haste to get it to market.33 Business-Goods Market Testing Business goods can also benefit from market testing. Expensive industrial goods and new technologies will normally undergo alpha testing (within the company) and beta testing (with outside customers). During beta testing, the vendor’s technical people observe how test customers use the product, a practice that often exposes unanticipated problems of safety and servicing and alerts the vendor to customer training and servicing requirements. The vendor can also observe how much value the equipment adds to the customer’s operation as a clue to subsequent pricing. The vendor will ask the test customers to express their purchase intention and other reactions after the test. The test customers benefit in several ways: They can influence product design, gain experience with the new product ahead of competitors, receive a price break in return for cooperation, and enhance their reputation as technological pioneers. Vendors must carefully interpret the beta test results because only a small number of test customers are used, they are not randomly drawn, and the tests are somewhat customized to each site. Another risk is that test customers who are unimpressed with the product may leak unfavorable reports about it. A second common test method for business goods is to introduce the new product at trade shows. Trade shows draw a large number of buyers, who view many new products in a few concentrated days. The vendor can observe how much interest buyers show in the new product, how they react to various features and terms, and how many express purchase intentions or place orders. Book publishers, for instance, regularly launch their fall titles at the American Booksellers Association convention each spring. There they display page proofs wrapped in dummy book covers. If a large bookstore chain objects to a cover design or title of a promising new book, the publisher will consider changing the cover or title. The disadvantage of trade shows is that they reveal the product to competitors; therefore, the vendor should be ready to launch the product soon after the trade show. New industrial products can be tested in distributor and dealer display rooms, where they may stand next to the manufacturer’s other products and possibly competitors’ products. This method yields preference and pricing information in the product’s normal selling atmosphere. The disadvantages are that the customers might want to place early orders that cannot be filled, and those customers who come in might not represent the target market. Industrial manufacturers come close to using full test marketing when they give a limited supply of the product to the sales force to sell in a limited number of areas that receive promotion support and printed catalog sheets. In this way, management can make a more informed decision about commercializing the product. COMMERCIALIZATION If the company goes ahead with commercialization, it will face its largest costs to date. The company will have to contract for manufacture or build or rent a full-scale manufacturing facility. Plant size will be a critical decision. The company can build a smaller plant than called for by the sales forecast, to be on the safe side. That is what Quaker Oats did when it launched its 100 Percent Natural breakfast cereal. The demand so exceeded the company’s sales forecast that for about a year it could not supply enough product to the stores. Although Quaker Oats was gratified with the response, the low forecast cost it a considerable amount of profit. Another major cost is marketing. To introduce a major new consumer packaged good into the national market, the company may have to spend between $20 million and $80 million in advertising and promotion in the first year. In the introduction of new food products, marketing expenditures typically represent 57 percent of sales during the first year. 350 Developing Marketing Strategies
Slide 129: In the movie business, it’s not unusual for the cost of marketing a movie to eclipse the cost of making it, particularly for what Hollywood calls “tentpole” films, those big summer blockbusters that can carry the rest of the studio’s projects on the strength of their revenues. In the decade between 1987 and 1997, the average cost of making a movie went from $20 million to $53 million, but marketing costs zoomed from $6.7 million to $22 million. Here’s a story that illustrates what money and marketing can do for a new movie—and what it can’t do: ■ Sony Pictures Entertainment During the summer of 1998, you probably noticed the giant billboards with the teasing, double entendre, “Size does matter.” However, you may have already forgotten the movie that the billboards were touting. Sony Pictures spent $125 million to make its summer blockbuster, Godzilla, and some $200 million to make sure it was a hit. Actually, Sony’s 250 marketing partners, such as Taco Bell, put up $150 million of that $200 million for licensing rights to Godzilla backpacks, T-shirts, and other scaly paraphernalia. The huge ad campaign infiltrated billboards and buses, buttons and T-shirts, TV and radio. Yet, for all of Sony’s marketing muscle, the only truly big thing about Godzilla was that it was a big flop. Three weeks after it opened, it had grossed only $110 million, about half of what Sony had predicted. Critics panned the movie and audiences agreed. However, Sony’s claim that “Size does matter” certainly rings true when it comes to marketing movies. When Sony’s top brass saw the initial screening and realized Godzilla would be a bomb, they went out and spent even more money on marketing. By luring as many moviegoers as possible into theaters early, Sony’s gamble paid off. It would end up grossing more than the $175 million it spent to make and market Godzilla.34 When (Timing) In commercializing a new product, market-entry timing is critical. Suppose a company has almost completed the development work on its new product and learns that a competitor is nearing the end of its development work. The company faces three choices: 1. First entry: The first firm entering a market usually enjoys the “first mover advantages” of locking up key distributors and customers and gaining reputational leadership. But, if the product is rushed to market before it is thoroughly debugged, the product can acquire a flawed image. 2. Parallel entry: The firm might time its entry to coincide with the competitor’s entry. The market may pay more attention when two companies are advertising the new product. 3. Late entry: The firm might delay its launch until after the competitor has entered. The competitor will have borne the cost of educating the market. The competitor’s product may reveal faults the late entrant can avoid. The company can also learn the size of the market. The timing decision involves additional considerations. If a new product replaces an older product, the company might delay the introduction until the old product’s stock is drawn down. If the product is highly seasonal, it might be delayed until the right season arrives.35 Where (Geographic Strategy) The company must decide whether to launch the new product in a single locality, a region, several regions, the national market, or the international market. Most will develop a planned market rollout over time. For instance, Coca-Cola launched its new soda, Citra, a caffeine-free, grapefruit-flavored drink, in about half the United States. The multistaged rollout, following test marketing in Phoenix, south Texas, and south Florida, began in January 1998 in Dallas, Denver, and Cincinnati.36 Company size is an important factor here. Small companies will select an attractive city and put on a blitz campaign. They will enter other cities one at a time. Large companies will introduce their product into a whole region and then move to the next region. chapter 11 Developing New Market Offerings 351
Slide 130: Companies with national distribution networks, such as auto companies, will launch their new models in the national market. Most companies design new products to sell primarily in the domestic market. If the product does well, the company considers exporting to neighboring countries or the world market, redesigning if necessary. Cooper and Kleinschmidt, in their study of industrial products, found that domestic products designed solely for the domestic market tend to show a high failure rate, low market share, and low growth. In contrast, products designed for the world market—or at least to include neighboring countries—achieve significantly more profits, both at home and abroad. Yet only 17 percent of the products in Cooper and Kleinschmidt’s study were designed with an international orientation.37 The implication is that companies should adopt an international focus in designing and developing new products. In choosing rollout markets, the candidate markets can be listed as rows, and rollout attractiveness criteria can be listed as columns. The major rating criteria are market potential, company’s local reputation, cost of filling the pipeline, cost of communication media, influence of area on other areas, and competitive penetration. The presence of strong competitors will influence rollout strategy. Suppose McDonald’s wants to launch a new chain of fast-food pizza parlors. Pizza Hut, a formidable competitor, is strongly entrenched on the East Coast. Another pizza chain is entrenched on the West Coast but is weak. The Midwest is the battleground between two other chains. The South is open, but Shakey’s is planning to move in. McDonald’s faces a complex decision in choosing a geographic rollout strategy. With the World Wide Web connecting far-flung parts of the globe, competition is more likely to cross national borders. Companies are increasingly rolling out new products simultaneously across the globe, rather than nationally or even regionally. However, masterminding a global launch provides challenges. Autodesk, the world’s leading supplier of PC design software and multimedia tools, has 3 million customers in more than 150 countries. Carol Bartz, chairman and CEO, says that the biggest obstacle to a global launch success is getting all the different marketers to agree with the positioning: “Then the issue is speed—getting the materials out fast enough. We get them to agree on the look (using one image), and then it’s a matter of putting a local spin on it. It requires an immense amount of concentration.”38 Coordinating an international launch also requires very deep pockets, as was the case with the launch of Iridium’s “world phone.” ■ Iridium Inc. It’s a phone the size of a brick with an antenna as thick as a stout breadstick. It costs $3,000, but this satellite-linked phone allows users to communicate from anywhere on earth. Iridium faced countless challenges in marketing this unwieldy, expensive device to a diverse, globe-trotting market. Brazil expected to presell 46,000 Iridium phones because of the country’s creaky phone system. Iridium Mideast wanted the phone in hunting-supply shops, because it was the perfect toy for desert falconry. An executive from Iridium India planned exclusive parties for rich businessmen who might want the new status symbol. Eventually, the company relied on APL, a division of Interpublic Group, to craft a single campaign for what is, arguably, the most intensive effort ever to build a global brand overnight. The $140 million campaign is running in 45 countries. Direct-mail materials are being translated into 13 languages. TV ads are scheduled on 17 different airlines. Iridium booths, where travelers will be able to handle the phones in person, are being set up in executive lounges in airports around the world. Finally, in what is surely the ultimate symbol of a global launch, APL hired laser specialists to beam the company’s Big Dipper logo onto the clouds.39 To Whom (Target-Market Prospects) Developing Marketing Strategies Within the rollout markets, the company must target its initial distribution and promotion to the best prospect groups. Presumably, the company has already profiled the prime prospects, who would ideally have the following characteristics: They would be early adopters, heavy users, and opinion leaders, and they could be reached at a low cost.40 Few groups have all these characteristics. The company should rate the 352
Slide 131: various prospect groups on these characteristics and target the best prospect group. The aim is to generate strong sales as soon as possible to motivate the sales force and attract further prospects. Many companies are surprised to learn who really buys their product and why. Microwave ovens began to enjoy explosive growth only after microwave-oven popcorn was developed. Households dramatically increased their purchase of computers when the CD-ROM multimedia feature was introduced. How (Introductory Market Strategy) The company must develop an action plan for introducing the new product into the rollout markets. With its debut in 1998, the competitively priced iMac represented Apple Computer’s reentry into the computer PC business after a hiatus of 14 years. The company staged a massive marketing blitz to launch the new machine. ■ Apple Computer Inc. Apple’s launch of the iMac, the sleek, egg-shaped computer with one-touch Internet access, was dramatic. For starters, the iMac was a closely guarded secret until May 6, 1998, when Jobs literally unveiled the machine to awestruck reporters. The buzz continued to mount, on-line and off, until the machine went on sale in August. On the weekend of August 14, computer retailers prepared Midnight Madness sales featuring 20-foot-high inflatable iMacs flying above the stores. Radio stations across the country began an iMac countdown, topped off with iMac giveaways. Jobs personally signed five “golden” tickets and placed them in the boxes of five iMacs, with the winner receiving a free iMac each year for the next five years. Apple augmented these efforts with a $100 million ad campaign, its biggest ever, to promote iMac through TV, print, radio, and billboards. The campaign chapter 11 Developing New Market Offerings 353
Slide 132: featured images of the iMac alongside slogans such as “Mental Floss” and “I think, therefore iMac.”41 To coordinate the many activities involved in launching a new product, management can use network-planning techniques such as critical path scheduling. Critical path scheduling (CPS) calls for developing a master chart showing the simultaneous and sequential activities that must take place to launch the product. By estimating how much time each activity takes, the planners estimate completion time for the entire project. Any delay in any activity on the critical path will cause the project to be delayed. If the launch must be completed earlier, the planner searches for ways to reduce time along the critical path.42 T HE CONSUMER-ADOPTION PROCESS 354 Developing Marketing Strategies How do potential customers learn about new products, try them, and adopt or reject them? (Adoption is an individual’s decision to become a regular user of a product.) The consumer-adoption process is later followed by the consumer-loyalty process, which is the concern of the established producer. Years ago, new-product marketers used a mass-market approach in launching products. They would distribute a product everywhere and advertise it to everyone on the assumption that most people are potential buyers. This approach had two main drawbacks: It called for heavy marketing expenditures, and it involved many wasted exposures to people who are not potential consumers. These drawbacks led to a second approach, heavy-user target marketing, where the product is initially aimed at heavy users. This approach makes sense, provided that heavy users are identifiable and are early adopters. But even within the heavy-user group, consumers differ in interest in new products and brands; many heavy users are loyal to existing brands. Many new-product marketers now aim at consumers who are early adopters. According to early-adopter theory: ■ Persons within a target market differ in the amount of elapsed time between their exposure to a new product and their trying it.
Slide 133: ■ ■ ■ Early adopters share some traits that differentiate them from late adopters. Efficient media exist for reaching early adopters. Early adopters tend to be opinion leaders and helpful in “advertising” the new product to other potential buyers. The theory of innovation diffusion and consumer adoption helps marketers identify early adopters. STAGES IN THE ADOPTION PROCESS An innovation refers to any good, service, or idea that is perceived by someone as new. The idea may have a long history, but it is an innovation to the person who sees it as new. Innovations take time to spread through the social system. Rogers defines the innovation diffusion process as “the spread of a new idea from its source of invention or creation to its ultimate users or adopters.”43 The consumer-adoption process focuses on the mental process through which an individual passes from first hearing about an innovation to final adoption. Adopters of new products have been observed to move through five stages: 1. Awareness: The consumer becomes aware of the innovation but lacks information about it. 2. Interest: The consumer is stimulated to seek information about the innovation. 3. Evaluation: The consumer considers whether to try the innovation. 4. Trial: The consumer tries the innovation to improve his or her estimate of its value. 5. Adoption: The consumer decides to make full and regular use of the innovation. The new-product marketer should facilitate consumer movement through these stages. A portable electric-dishwasher manufacturer might discover that many consumers are stuck in the interest stage; they do not buy because of their uncertainty and the large investment cost. But these same consumers would be willing to use an electric dishwasher on a trial basis for a small monthly fee. The manufacturer should consider offering a trial-use plan with option to buy. Developers of most general-interest interactive CD-ROM titles found that consumers were stuck in the interest or trial stage and moved less rapidly to adoption. ■ CD-ROMs In the early 1990s, there seemed to be room in the CD-ROM industry for everyone. Multimedia developers were producing action games and educational software and moving into a hodgepodge of interactive products that ranged from hypertext novels to multimedia music anthologies. Today, few of these titles are selling well or even on the market. One of the main causes of the poor sales is the ascendance of the Web. Most CD-ROMs, particularly reference titles, found a more cost-effective home on the Web, a medium that also enables them to keep up-to-date and link to a community of users. CD-ROMs also faced hundreds of competitors in an extremely fragmented entertainment market. Another problem was the glut of titles with serious quality problems. Although consumers were willing to put up with lower quality, they were not patient with technical glitches. When Disney was beset by massive store returns of its defective Lion King CD-ROM, the New York Times promptly claimed that CD-ROMs were dead.44 FACTORS INFLUENCING THE ADOPTION PROCESS Marketers recognize the following characteristics of the adoption process: differences in individual readiness to try new products; the effect of personal influence; differing rates of adoption; and differences in organizations’ readiness to try new products. chapter 11 Developing New Market Offerings 355
Slide 134: FIGURE 2-6 Adopter Categorization on the Basis of Relative Time of Adoption of Innovations Source: Redrawn from Everett M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations (New York: Free Press, 1983). 21/2% Innovators 131/2% Early adopters 34% Early majority 34% Late majority 16% Laggards Time of adoption of innovations People Differ in Readiness to Try New Products Rogers defines a person’s innovativeness as “the degree to which an individual is relatively earlier in adopting new ideas than the other members of his social system.” In each product area, there are consumption pioneers and early adopters. Some people are the first to adopt new clothing fashions or new appliances; some doctors are the first to prescribe new medicines; and some farmers are the first to adopt new farming methods. Other individuals adopt new products much later. People can be classified into the adopter categories shown in Figure 2-6. After a slow start, an increasing number of people adopt the innovation, the number reaches a peak, and then it diminishes as fewer nonadopters remain. Rogers sees the five adopter groups as differing in their value orientations. Innovators are venturesome; they are willing to try new ideas. Early adopters are guided by respect; they are opinion leaders in their community and adopt new ideas early but carefully. The early majority are deliberate; they adopt new ideas before the average person, although they rarely are leaders. The late majority are skeptical; they adopt an innovation only after a majority of people have tried it. Finally, laggards are tradition bound; they are suspicious of change, mix with other tradition-bound people, and adopt the innovation only when it takes on a measure of tradition itself. This classification suggests that an innovating firm should research the demographic, psychographic, and media characteristics of innovators and early adopters and direct communications specifically to them. For example, innovative farmers are likely to be better educated and more efficient. Innovative homemakers are more gregarious and usually higher in social status. Certain communities have a high share of early adopters. According to Rogers, earlier adopters tend to be younger in age, have higher social status, and a more favorable financial position. They utilize a greater number of more cosmopolitan information sources than do later adopters.45 Personal Influence Plays a Large Role Personal influence is the effect one person has on another’s attitude or purchase probability. Although personal influence is an important factor, its significance is greater in some situations and for some individuals than for others. Personal influence is more important in the evaluation stage of the adoption process than in the other stages. It has more influence on late adopters than early adopters. It also is more important in risky situations. Characteristics of the Innovation Affect Rate of Adoption Developing Marketing Strategies Some products catch on immediately (e.g., rollerblades), whereas others take a long time to gain acceptance (e.g., diesel-engine autos). Five characteristics influence the rate of adoption of an innovation. We will consider them in relation to the adoption of personal computers for home use. 356
Slide 135: The first is relative advantage—the degree to which the innovation appears superior to existing products. The greater the perceived relative advantage of using a personal computer, say, in preparing income taxes and keeping financial records, the more quickly personal computers will be adopted. The second is compatibility—the degree to which the innovation matches the values and experiences of the individuals. Personal computers, for example, are highly compatible with upper-middle-class lifestyles. Third is complexity—the degree to which the innovation is relatively difficult to understand or use. Personal computers are complex and will therefore take a longer time to penetrate into home use. Fourth is divisibility—the degree to which the innovation can be tried on a limited basis. The availability of rentals of personal computers with an option to buy increases their rate of adoption. Fifth is communicability—the degree to which the beneficial results of use are observable or describable to others. The fact that personal computers lend themselves to demonstration and description helps them diffuse faster in the social system. Other characteristics that influence the rate of adoption are cost, risk and uncertainty, scientific credibility, and social approval. The new-product marketer has to research all these factors and give the key ones maximum attention in designing the new-product and marketing program.46 Organizations Also Vary in Readiness to Adopt Innovations The creator of a new teaching method would want to identify innovative schools. The producer of a new piece of medical equipment would want to identify innovative hospitals. Adoption is associated with variables in the organization’s environment (community progressiveness, community income), the organization itself (size, profits, pressure to change), and the administrators (education level, age, sophistication). Other forces come into play when trying to get a product adopted into organizations that receive the bulk of their funding from the government, such as public schools. A controversial or innovative product can be squelched by negative public opinion. This was certainly the case with Christopher Whittle’s Channel One, a television station for secondary schools. ■ Channel One Communications Inc. and K-III Communications Corporation Do you remember Channel One? This was Christopher Whittle’s grand plan to put free television sets in every secondary school. The catch? Teachers would have to flick on a twelve-minute news broadcast every morning, including two minutes of paid ads. Whittle came across as a slick huckster and drew protests from parents and teachers who didn’t think commercials had any place in the school. It also didn’t help that the original Channel One newscast, with its thumping rock music, looked more like a setting for the ads than for news. Whittle’s media empire crumbled in 1994. However, in an interesting epilogue, and a testimony to the lessons to be learned from product failure, another company has bought Channel One and managed to gain adoption in enough schools to reach 8 million kids, 40 percent of the nation’s teenagers. K-III Communications Corporation listened to teachers and parents and made news programming more serious. There is still paid advertising, but the public furor had died down, and, as one principal says, “Even the commercials let us talk about how images are constructed.” So maybe Whittle had the right product idea; he just flubbed the execution.47 SUMMARY 1. Once a company has segmented the market, chosen its target customer groups, identified their needs, and determined its desired market positioning, it is ready to develop and launch appropriate new products. Marketing should actively participate with other departments in every stage of new-product development. chapter 11 Developing New Market Offerings 357
Slide 136: 2. Successful new-product development requires the company to establish an effective organization for managing the development process. Companies can choose to use product managers, new-product managers, new-product committees, newproduct departments, or new-product venture teams. 3. Eight stages are involved in the new-product development process: idea generation, screening, concept development and testing, marketing strategy development, business analysis, product development, market testing, and commercialization. The purpose of each stage is to determine whether the idea should be dropped or moved to the next stage. 4. The consumer-adoption process is the process by which customers learn about new products, try them, and adopt or reject them. Today many marketers are targeting heavy users and early adopters of new products, because both groups can be reached by specific media and tend to be opinion leaders. The consumer-adoption process is influenced by many factors beyond the marketer’s control, including consumers’ and organizations’ willingness to try new products, personal influences, and the characteristics of the new product or innovation. APPLICATIONS CONCEPTS 1. To generate really good new-product ideas you need inspiration, perspiration, and good techniques. Some companies struggle with trying to develop new-product ideas because they place more emphasis on inspiration and perspiration than they do on technique. Attribute listing, Alex Osborn’s powerful creative tool, can activate the creative juices in just about everyone. Identify a product or service that you are familiar with and list its attributes. Then modify each attribute in search of an improved product. The following form will be useful in your deliberations. If you are having trouble getting started, consider a famous example Attribute Listing Worksheet Attributes Magnify Minify Substitute Adapt Rearrange Reverse Combine New Uses Replace of attribute alteration and expansion: that of Oreo cookies. From the simple, blackand-white Oreo, Nabisco has developed double-stuff Oreos, chocolate-covered Oreos, giant-size Oreos, mini-size Oreos, low-fat Oreos, lower-calorie Oreos, different packaging and package sizes, Oreo cookie ice cream, Oreo cookie ice cream cones, Oreo granola bars, Oreo cereal, and Oreo snack treats. 2. Prepare a list of questions that management should answer prior to developing a new product or service. Organize the questions according to the following categories: (a) market opportunity, (b) competition, (c) production, (d) patentable features, (e) distribution (for products) or delivery (for services), and (f) finance. Then answer each question for a new-product idea you have. Would the development and testing of a new service differ from those of a new product? 358 Developing Marketing Strategies
Slide 137: (1) (2) (3) (4) Type of Sock 18-inch Tube Sock (22) 45% 27 23 5 3 7 3 42% 35 15 6 (5) Total Respondents Respondent base* Definitely would buy Probably would buy Might or might not buy Probably would not buy Definitely would not buy (185) 38% 44 14 3 2 24-inch Tube Sock (60) 43% 47 Athletic Sock (34) Crew Sock (7) (8) (9) Package Size and Price 1 pair 1 pair 3 pairs 3 pairs at at at at $1.79– $1.99– $4.99– $5.49– $1.99 $2.4 9 $5.99 $6.49 (53) 45% 38 13 4 4 (42) 31% 40 20 5 2 (42) 33% 48 19 4 50 13 (48) (6) (69) 42% 51 16 1 3 29% *Based on four-week consumer home-use test. Source: CU Market Research. 3. Before beginning an in-home-use test of Odor-Eater socks, each consumer participant selected the Odor-Eaters sock style he or she preferred. At the end of the test, the participants summarized how likely they would be to purchase Odor-Eaters in the future. These data are reported in Table 2.4. What conclusions can you draw from these data? What type of sock is most popular with consumers? Assuming that the consumer testers are representative of the market, how price sensitive is this market? Should the company package Odor-Eaters one to the box (columns 6 and 7), or would multiple packs (columns 8 and 9) be preferable? TABLE 2.4 Likelihood of Purchasing Odor-Eaters chapter 11 Developing New Market Offerings 359
Slide 138: NOTES 1. New Products Management for the 1980s (New York: Booz, Allen & Hamilton, 1982). 2. Christopher Power, “Flops,” Business Week, August 16, 1993, pp. 76–82. 3. “Smokeless Cigarettes Not Catching on with Consumers,” Marketing News, August 4, 1997, p. 21; Robert McMath, “Smokeless Isn’t Smoking,” American Demographics, October 1996. 4. Erika Rasmussen, “Staying Power,” Sales & Marketing Management, August 1998, pp. 44–46. 5. Robert G. Cooper and Elko J. Kleinschmidt, New Products: The Key Factors in Success (Chicago: American Marketing Association, 1990). 6. Modesto A. Madique and Billie Jo Zirger, “A Study of Success and Failure in Product Innovation: The Case of the U.S. Electronics Industry,” IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, November 1984, pp. 192–203. 7. Michelle Conlin, “Too Much Doodle?” Forbes, October 19, 1998, pp. 54–55; Tim Stevens, “Idea Dollars,” Industry Week, February 16, 1998, pp. 47–49. 8. See David S. Hopkins, Options in New-Product Organization (New York: Conference Board, 1974); Doug Ayers, Robert Dahlstrom, and Steven J. Skinner, “An Exploratory Investigation of Organizational Antecedents to New Product Success,” Journal of Marketing Research, February 1997, pp. 107–16. 9. See Robert G. Cooper, “Stage-Gate Systems: A New Tool for Managing New Products,” Business Horizons, May–June 1990, pp. 44–54. See also his “The New Prod System: The Industry Experience,” Journal of Product Innovation Management 9 (1992): 113–27. 10. Robert Cooper, Product Leadership: Creating and Launching Superior New Products (New York: Perseus Books, 1998). 11. Eric von Hippel, “Lead Users: A Source of Novel Product Concepts,” Management Science, July 1986, pp. 791–805. Also see his The Sources of Innovation (New York: Oxford University Press, 1988); and “Learning from Lead Users,” in Marketing in an Electronic Age, ed. Robert D. Buzzell (Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School Press, 1985), pp. 308–17. 12. Constance Gustke, “Built to Last,” Sales & Marketing Management, August 1997, pp. 78–83. 13. Mark Hanan, “Corporate Growth through Venture Management,” Harvard Business Review, January–February 1969, p. 44. See also Carol J. Loomis, “Dinosaurs?” Fortune, May 3, 1993, pp. 36–42. 14. ”The Ultimate Widget: 3-D ‘Printing’ May Revolutionize Product Design and Manufacturing,” U.S. News & World Report, July 20, 1992, p. 55. 15. Tom Dellacave Jr., “Curing Market Research Headaches,” Sales & Marketing Management, July 1996, pp. 84–85. 16. Dan Deitz, “Customer-Driven Engineering,” Mechanical Engineering, May 1996, p. 68. 17. The full-profile example was taken from Paul E. Green and Yoram Wind, “New Ways to Measure Consumers’ Judgments,” Harvard Business Review (July–August 1975), pp. 107–17. Copyright © 1975 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College; all rights reserved. Also see Paul E. Green and V. Srinivasan, “Conjoint Analysis in Marketing: New Developments with Implications for Research and Practice,” Journal of Marketing, October
Slide 139: 18. 19. 20. 21. 1990, pp. 3–19; Jonathan Weiner, “Forecasting Demand: Consumer Electronics Marketer Uses a Conjoint Approach to Configure Its New Product and Set the Right Price,” Marketing Research: A Magazine of Management & Applications, Summer 1994, pp. 6–11; Dick R. Wittnick, Marco Vriens, and Wim Burhenne, “Commercial Uses of Conjoint Analysis in Europe: Results and Critical Reflections,” International Journal of Research in Marketing, January 1994, pp. 41–52. See Robert Blattberg and John Golanty, “Tracker: An Early Test Market Forecasting and Diagnostic Model for New Product Planning,” Journal of Marketing Research, May 1978, pp. 192–202; Glen L. Urban, Bruce D. Weinberg, and John R. Hauser, “Premarket Forecasting of Really New Products,” Journal of Marketing, January 1996, pp. 47–60; Peter N. Golder and Gerald J. Tellis, “Will It Ever Fly? Modeling the Takeoff of Really New Consumer Durables,” Marketing Science, 16, no. 3 (1997): 256–70. See Roger A. Kerin, Michael G. Harvey, and James T. Rothe, “Cannibalism and New Product Development,” Business Horizons, October 1978, pp. 25–31. The present value (V) of a future sum (I) to be received t years from today and discounted at the interest rate (r) is given by V It/(1 r)t. Thus $4,761,000/(1.15)5 $2,346,000. See David B. Hertz, “Risk Analysis in Capital Investment,” Harvard Business Review, January–February 1964, pp. 96–106. 22. See John Hauser, “House of Quality,” Harvard Business Review, May–June 1988, pp. 63–73. Customer-driven engineering is also called “quality function deployment.” See Lawrence R. Guinta and Nancy C. Praizler, The QFD Book: The Team Approach to Solving Problems and Satisfying Customers through Quality Function Deployment (New York: AMACOM, 1993); V. Srinivasan, William S. Lovejoy, and David Beach, “Integrated Product Design for Marketability and Manufacturing,” Journal of Marketing Research, February 1997, pp. 154–63. 23. Marco Iansiti and Alan MacCormack, “Developing Products on Internet Time,” Harvard Business Review, September–October 1997, pp. 108–17; Srikant Datar, C. Clark Jordan, and Kannan Srinivasan, “Advantages of Time Based New Product Development in a Fast-Cycle Industry,” Journal of Marketing Research, February 1997, pp. 36–49; Christopher D. Ittner and David F. Larcker, “Product Development Cycle Time and Organizational Performance,” Journal of Marketing Research, February 1997, pp. 13–23. 24. Tom Peters, The Circle of Innovation, (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1997), p. 96. 25. Ibid., p. 99. 26. Faye Rice, “Secrets of Product Testing,” Fortune, November 28, 1994, pp. 172–74; Lawrence Ingrassia, “Taming the Monster: How Big Companies Can Change: Keeping Sharp: Gillette Holds Its Edge by Endlessly Searching for a Better Shave,” Wall Street Journal, December 10, 1992, p. A1. 27. Gerry Khermouch, “Plate Tectonics,” Brandweek, February 12, 1996, p. 1. 28. Audrey Choi and Gabriella Stern, “The Lessons of Rügen: Electric Cars are Slow, Temperamental and Exasperating,” Wall Street Journal, March 30, 1995, p. B1. 29. John Schwartz, “After 2 Years of Market Tests, Olestra Products Going National; Consumer Advocates Still Concerned About Health Risks,” Washington Post, February 11, 1998, p. A3. 30. Christopher Power, “Will it Sell in Podunk? Hard to Say,” Business Week, August 10, 1992, pp. 46–47. 31. See Kevin J. Clancy, Robert S. Shulman, and Marianne Wolf, Simulated Test Marketing: Technology for Launching Successful New Products (New York: Lexington Books, 1994); and V. Mahajan and Jerry Wind, “New Product Models: Practice, Shortcomings, and Desired Improvements,” Journal of Product Innovation Management 9 (1992): 128–39; Glen L. Urban, John R. Hauser, and Roberta A. Chicos, “Information Acceleration: Validation and Lessons from the Field,” Journal of Marketing Research, February 1997, pp. 143–53. 32. Power, “Will It Sell in Podunk,” pp. 46–47. 33. Robert McMath, “To Test or Not to Test . . . ,” American Demographics, June 1998, p. 64. 34. Corie Brown, “The Lizard Was a Turkey,” Newsweek, June 15, 998, p. 71; Tim Carvell, “How Sony Created a Monster,” Fortune, June 8, 1998, pp. 162–70. 35. For further discussion, see Robert J. Thomas, “Timing—The Key to Market Entry,” Journal of Consumer Marketing, Summer 1985, pp. 77–87; Thomas S. Robertson, Jehoshua Eliashberg, and Talia Rymon, “New Product Announcement Signals and Incumbent Reactions,” Journal of Marketing, July 1995, pp. 1–15; Frank H. Alpert and Michael A. Kamins, “Pioneer Brand Advantages and Consumer Behavior:A Conceptual Framework and Propositional Inventory,” Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Summer 1994, pp. 244–36. 36. Mickey H. Gramig, “Coca-Cola Unveiling New Citrus Drink,” Atlanta Journal and Constitution, January 24, 1998, p. E3.
Slide 140: 37. See Cooper and Kleinschmidt, New Products, pp. 35–38. 38. Erika Rasmusson, “Staying Power,” Sales & Marketing Management, August 1998, pp. 44–46. 39. Quentin Hardy, “Iridium’s Orbit to Sell a World Phone, Play to Executive Fears of Being out of Touch: Satellite Consortium Chooses That Pitch for Bid to Build a Global Brand Overnight,” Wall Street Journal, June 4, 1998 p. A1; Sally Beatty, “Iridium Is Betting Satellite Phone Will Hook Restless Professionals,” Wall Street Journal, June 22, 1998, p. B6. 40. Philip Kotler and Gerald Zaltman, “Targeting Prospects for a New Product,” Journal of Advertising Research, February 1976, pp. 7–20. 41. Jim Carlton, “From Apple, a New Marketing Blitz,” Wall Street Journal, August 14, 1998, p. B1. 42. For details, see Keith G. Lockyer, Critical Path Analysis and Other Project Network Techniques (London: Pitman, 1984). Also see Arvind Rangaswamy and Gary L. Lilien, “Software Tools for New Product Development,” Journal of Marketing Research, February 1997, pp. 177–84. 43. The following discussion leans heavily on Everett M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations (New York: Free Press, 1962). Also see his third edition, published in 1983. 44. Gillian Newson and Eric Brown, “CDROM: What Went Wrong?” NewMedia, August 1998, pp. 32–38. 45. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations, p. 192. Also see S. Ram and Hyung-Shik Jung, “Innovativeness in Product Usage: A Comparison of Early Adopters and Early Majority,” Psychology and Marketing, January–February 1994, pp. 57–68. 46. See Hubert Gatignon and Thomas S. Robertson, “A Propositional Inventory for New Diffusion Research,” Journal of Consumer Research, March 1985, pp. 849–67; Vijay Mahajan, Eitan Muller, and Frank M. Bass, “Diffusion of New Products: Empirical Generalizations and Managerial Uses,” Marketing Science, 14, no. 3, part 2 (1995); G79–G89; Fareena Sultan, John U. Farley, and Donald R. Lehmann, “Reflection on ‘A Meta-Analysis of Applications of Diffusion Models,’” Journal of Marketing Research, May 1996, pp. 247–49; Minhi Hahn, Sehoon Park, and Andris A. Zoltners, “Analysis of New Product Diffusion Using a Four-segment Trial-repeat Model,” Marketing Science, 13, no. 3 (1994), 224–47. 47. Joshua Levine, “TV in the Classroom,” Forbes, January 27, 1997, p. 98. 362 Developing Marketing Strategies
Slide 141: SECTION THREE
Slide 142: Analyzing Consumer Markets and Buyer Behavior We will address the following questions: ■ How do cultural, social, personal, and psychological factors influence consumer buying behavior? ■ How does the consumer make a purchasing decision? T he aim of marketing is to meet and satisfy target customers’ needs and wants. The field of consumer behavior studies how individuals, groups, and organizations select, buy, use, and dispose of goods, services, ideas, or experiences to satisfy their needs and desires. Understanding consumer behavior is never simple, because customers may say one thing but do another. They may not be in touch with their deeper motivations, and they may respond to influences and change their minds at the last minute. Still, all marketers can profit from understanding how and why consumers buy. For example, Whirlpool’s staff anthropologists go into people’s homes, observe how they use appliances, and talk with household members. Whirlpool has found that in busy families, women are not the only ones doing the laundry. Knowing this, the company’s engineers developed color-coded washer and dryer controls to make it easier for kids and men to pitch in.1 In fact, not understanding your customer’s motivations, needs, and preferences can lead to major mistakes. This is what happened when Kodak introduced its Advanta camera—a costly bust. The company proudly touted it as a high-tech product, but the marketplace was dominated by middle-aged baby-boomers. In midlife, fancy new technology generally loses its appeal, and simplicity begins to edge out complexity in consumer preferences, so Advanta sales did not skyrocket. Such examples show why successful marketers use both rigorous scientific procedures and more intuitive methods to study customers and uncover clues for developing new products, product features, prices, channels, messages, and other marketing- 87
Slide 143: 88 CHAPTER 5 ANALYZING CONSUMER MARKETS AND BUYER BEHAVIOR mix elements. This chapter explores individual consumers’ buying dynamics; the next chapter explores the buying dynamics of business buyers. HOW AND WHY CONSUMERS BUY The starting point for understanding consumer buying behavior is the stimulusresponse model shown in Figure 3-1. As this model shows, both marketing and environmental stimuli enter the buyer’s consciousness. In turn, the buyer’s characteristics and decision process lead to certain purchase decisions. The marketer’s task is to understand what happens in the buyer’s consciousness between the arrival of outside stimuli and the buyer’s purchase decisions. As this model indicates, a consumer’s buying behavior is influenced by cultural, social, personal, and psychological factors. Cultural Factors Influencing Buyer Behavior Culture, subculture, and social class are particularly important influences on consumer buying behavior. ➤ Culture. Culture is the most fundamental determinant of a person’s wants and behavior. A child growing up in the United States is exposed to these broad cultural values: achievement and success, activity, efficiency and practicality, progress, material comfort, individualism, freedom, external comfort, humanitarianism, and youthfulness.2 Subculture. Each culture consists of smaller subcultures that provide more specific identification and socialization for their members. Subcultures include nationalities, religions, racial groups, and geographic regions. Many subcultures make up important market segments, leading marketers to tailor products and marketing programs to their needs. Latinos, for example, the fastest-growing U.S. subculture, are targeted by Dallas-based Carnival Food Stores, among other marketers. Dallas is one of the top 10 cities in terms of Latino population, and when the chain uses Spanish language promotions, customers are more responsive. Marketers are targeting another subculture, African Americans, because of its hefty $500 billion in purchasing power. Hallmark, for instance, created its Mahogany line of 800 greeting cards especially for African Americans. Age forms subcultures, as well; the 75 million Americans in the 50-plus market are being targeted by marketers such as Pfizer, which airs ads showing how its medications help seniors live life to the fullest.3 ➤ Figure 3-1 Model of Consumer Buyer Behavior
Slide 144: How and Why Consumers Buy ➤ Social class. Social classes are relatively homogeneous and enduring divisions in a society. They are hierarchically ordered and their members share similar values, interests, and behavior (see Table 3.1). Social classes reflect income as well as occupation, education, and other indicators. Those within each social class tend to behave more alike than do persons from different social classes. Also, within the culture, persons are perceived as occupying inferior or superior positions according to social class. Social class is indicated by a cluster of variables rather than by any single variable. Still, individuals can move from one social class to another—up or down—during their lifetime. Because social classes often show distinct product and brand preferences, some marketers focus their efforts on one social class. Neiman Marcus, for example, focuses on the upper classes, offering top-quality merchandise in upscale stores with many personal services geared to these customers’ needs. 89 Social Factors Influencing Buyer Behavior In addition to cultural factors, a consumer’s behavior is influenced by such social factors as reference groups, family, and social roles and statuses. Reference Groups Reference groups consist of all of the groups that have a direct (face-to-face) or indirect influence on a person’s attitudes or behavior. Groups that have a direct influence on a person are called membership groups. Some primary membership groups are family, friends, neighbors, and co-workers, with whom individuals interact fairly continuously and informally. Secondary groups, such as professional and trade-union groups, tend to be more formal and require less continuous interaction. Reference groups expose people to new behaviors and lifestyles, influence attitudes and self-concept, and create pressures for conformity that may affect product and brand choices. People are also influenced by groups to which they do not belong. Aspirational groups are those the person hopes to join; dissociative groups are those whose values or behavior an individual rejects. Although marketers try to identify target customers’ reference groups, the level of reference-group influence varies among products and brands. Manufacturers of products and brands with strong group influence must reach and influence the opinion leaders in these reference groups. An opinion leader is the person in informal productrelated communications who offers advice or information about a product or product category.4 Marketers try to reach opinion leaders by identifying demographic and psychographic characteristics associated with opinion leadership, identifying the preferred media of opinion leaders, and directing messages at the opinion leaders. For example, the hottest trends in teenage music and fashion start in America’s inner cities, then spread to youth in the suburbs. As a result, clothing companies that target teens carefully monitor the style and behavior of urban opinion leaders. Family The family is the most important consumer-buying organization in society, and it has been researched extensively.5 The family of orientation consists of one’s parents and siblings. From parents, a person acquires an orientation toward religion, politics, and economics as well as a sense of personal ambition, self-worth, and love.6 A more direct influence on the everyday buying behavior of adults is the family of procreation—namely, one’s spouse and children. Marketers are interested in the roles and relative influence of the husband, wife, and children in the purchase of a large variety of products and services. These roles vary widely in different cultures and social classes. Vietnamese Americans, for example,
Slide 145: 90 CHAPTER 5 ANALYZING CONSUMER MARKETS AND BUYER BEHAVIOR Table 3.1 Selected Characteristics of Major U.S. Social Classes Social Class Upper Uppers (less than 1 percent of U.S. population) Characteristics The social elite who live on inherited wealth; they give large sums to charity, maintain more than one home, and send their children to top schools.This small group serves as a reference group for other social classes. People coming up from the middle class who have earned high income or wealth through professions or business; they tend to be active in social and civic affairs, buy status-symbol products, and aspire to be accepted in the upper-upper stratum. People without family status or unusual wealth who are focused on their careers as professionals, independent business persons, and corporate managers; they believe in education and are civicminded and home-oriented. Average-pay white- and blue-collar workers; they often buy popular products to keep up with trends, and they believe in spending more money on worthwhile experiences for their children and aiming them toward a college education. Average-pay blue-collar workers and those who lead a working-class lifestyle; they depend on relatives for economic and emotional support, job tips, and assistance, and they tend to maintain sharp sex-role divisions and stereotyping. Workers whose living standard is just above poverty; they perform unskilled work, are poorly paid, and are educationally deficient. People on welfare, visibly poverty stricken, and usually out of work; some are uninterested in finding permanent work, and most depend on public aid or charity for income. Lower Uppers (about 2 percent of U.S. population) Upper Middles (12 percent of U.S. population) Middle Class (32 percent of U.S. population) Working Class (38 percent of U.S. population) Upper Lowers (9 percent of U.S. population) Lower Lowers (7 percent of U.S. population) Sources: Richard P. Coleman,“The Continuing Significance of Social Class to Marketing,” Journal of Consumer Research, December 1983, pp. 265–80, and Richard P. Coleman and Lee P. Rainwater, Social Standing in America: New Dimension of Class (New York: Basic Books, 1978). are more likely to adhere to the model in which the man makes large-purchase decisions. In the United States, husband-wife involvement has traditionally varied widely by product category, so marketers need to determine which member has the greater influence in choosing particular products. Today, traditional household purchasing patterns are changing, with baby-boomer husbands and wives shopping jointly for products traditionally thought to be under the separate control of one spouse or the other.7 For this reason, marketers of products traditionally purchased by one spouse may need to start thinking of the other as a possible purchaser.
Slide 146: How and Why Consumers Buy 91 Another shift in buying patterns is an increase in the amount of money spent and influence wielded by children and teens.8 Children age 4 to 12 spend an estimated $24.4 billion annually—three times the value of the ready-to-eat cereal market. Indirect influence means that parents know the brands, product choices, and preferences of their children without hints or outright requests; direct influence refers to children’s hints, requests, and demands. Because the fastest route to Mom and Dad’s wallets may be through Junior, many successful companies are showing off their products to children—and soliciting marketing information from them—over the Internet. This has consumer groups and parents up in arms. Many marketers have come under fire for not requiring parental consent when requesting personal information and not clearly differentiating ads from games or entertainment. One company that uses ethical tactics to market to children is Disney, which operates the popular children’s site Disney Online. Disney clearly states its on-line policies on its home page and on the home pages of its other sites, including Disney’s Daily Blast, a subscription-based Internet service geared to children age 3 to 12. Disney’s on-line practices include alerting parents through e-mail when a child has submitted personal information to a Web site, whether it be to enter a contest, cast a vote, or register at a site. Whereas many sites and advertisers use “cookies,” tiny bits of data that a Web site puts on a user’s computer to enhance his or her visit, Disney does not use cookies for promotional or marketing purposes and does not share them with third parties.9 Roles and Statuses A person participates in many groups, such as family, clubs, or organizations. The person’s position in each group can be defined in terms of role and status. A role consists of the activities that a person is expected to perform. Each role carries a status. A Supreme Court justice has more status than a sales manager, and a sales manager has more status than an administrative assistant. In general, people choose products that communicate their role and status in society. Thus, company presidents often drive Mercedes, wear expensive suits, and drink Chivas Regal scotch. Savvy marketers are aware of the status symbol potential of products and brands. Personal Factors Influencing Buyer Behavior Cultural and social factors are just two of the four major factors that influence consumer buying behavior. The third factor is personal characteristics, including the buyer’s age, stage in the life cycle, occupation, economic circumstances, lifestyle, personality, and self-concept. Age and Stage in the Life Cycle People buy different goods and services over a lifetime. They eat baby food in the early years, most foods in the growing and mature years, and special diets in the later years. Taste in clothes, furniture, and recreation is also age-related, which is why smart marketers are attentive to the influence of age. Similarly, consumption is shaped by the family life cycle. The traditional family life cycle covers stages in adult lives, starting with independence from parents and continuing into marriage, child-rearing, empty-nest years, retirement, and later life. Marketers often choose a specific group from this traditional life-cycle as their target market. Yet target households are not always family based: There are also single households, gay households, and cohabitor households. Some recent research has identified psychological life-cycle stages. Adults experience certain “passages” or “transformations” as they go through life.10 Leading mar-
Slide 147: 92 CHAPTER 5 ANALYZING CONSUMER MARKETS AND BUYER BEHAVIOR keters pay close attention to changing life circumstances—divorce, widowhood, remarriage—and their effect on consumption behavior. Occupation and Economic Circumstances Occupation also influences a person’s consumption pattern. A blue-collar worker will buy work clothes and lunchboxes, while a company president will buy expensive suits and a country club membership. For this reason, marketers should identify the occupational groups that are more interested in their products and services, and consider specializing their products for certain occupations. Software manufacturers, for example, have developed special programs for lawyers, physicians, and other occupational groups. In addition, product choice is greatly affected by a consumer’s economic circumstances: spendable income (level, stability, and time pattern), savings and assets (including the percentage that is liquid), debts, borrowing power, and attitude toward spending versus saving. Thus, marketers of income-sensitive goods must track trends in personal income, savings, and interest rates. If a recession is likely, marketers can redesign, reposition, and reprice their products to offer more value to target customers. Lifestyle People from the same subculture, social class, and occupation may actually lead quite different lifestyles. A lifestyle is the person’s pattern of living in the world as expressed in activities, interests, and opinions. Lifestyle portrays the “whole person” interacting with his or her environment. Successful marketers search for relationships between their products and lifestyle groups. For example, a computer manufacturer might find that most computer buyers are achievement-oriented. The marketer may then aim its brand more clearly at the achiever lifestyle. Psychographics is the science of measuring and categorizing consumer lifestyles. One of the most popular classifications based on psychographic measurements is SRI International’s Values and Lifestyles (VALS) framework. The VALS 2 system classifies all U.S. adults into eight groups based on psychological attributes drawn from survey responses to demographic, attitudinal, and behavioral questions, including questions about Internet usage.11 The major tendencies of these groups are: ➤ ➤ ➤ ➤ ➤ ➤ ➤ Actualizers: Successful, sophisticated, active, “take-charge” people whose purchases often reflect cultivated tastes for relatively upscale, niche-oriented products. Fulfilleds: Mature, satisfied, comfortable, and reflective people who favor durability, functionality, and value in products. Achievers: Successful, career- and work-oriented consumers who favor established, prestige products that demonstrate success. Experiencers: Young, vital, enthusiastic, impulsive, and rebellious people who spend much of their income on clothing, fast food, music, movies, and video. Believers: Conservative, conventional, and traditional people who favor familiar products and established brands. Strivers: Uncertain, insecure, approval-seeking, resource constrained consumers who favor stylish products that emulate the purchases of wealthier people. Makers: Practical, self-sufficient, traditional, and family-oriented people who favor products with a practical or functional purpose, such as tools and fishing equipment. Strugglers: Elderly, resigned, passive, concerned, and resource-constrained consumers who are cautious and loyal to favorite brands. ➤
Slide 148: How and Why Consumers Buy 93 Although psychographics is a valid and valued methodology for many marketers, social scientists are realizing that older tools for predicting consumer behavior are not always applicable to the use of the Internet or on-line services and purchases of technology products. As a result, researchers are coming up with new research methods for segmenting consumers based on technology types. Forrester Research’s Technographics system segments consumers according to motivation, desire, and ability to invest in technology; SRI’s iVALS system segments consumers into segments based on Internet usage.12 Lifestyle segmentation schemes vary by culture. McCann-Erickson London, for example, has identified these British lifestyles: Avant-Gardians (interested in change); Pontificators (traditionalists); Chameleons (follow the crowd); and Sleepwalkers (contented underachievers). The advertising agency D’Arcy, Masius, Benton & Bowles has identified these segments of Russian consumers: “Kuptsi” (merchants), “Cossacks” (ambitious and status seeking), “Students,” “Business Executives,” and “Russian Souls” (passive, fearful of choices).13 Personality and Self-Concept Each person has a distinct personality that influences buying behavior. Personality refers to the distinguishing psychological characteristics that lead to relatively consistent and enduring responses to environment. Personality is usually described in terms of such traits as self-confidence, dominance, autonomy, deference, sociability, defensiveness, and adaptability.14 Personality can be useful in analyzing consumer behavior, provided that personality types can be classified accurately and that strong correlations exist between certain personality types and product or brand choices. For example, a computer company might discover that many prospects show high self-confidence, dominance, and autonomy, suggesting that computer ads should appeal to these traits. Self-concept (or self-image) is related to personality. Marketers often try to develop brand images that match the target market’s self-image. Yet it is possible that a person’s actual self-concept (how she views herself ) differs from her ideal self-concept (how she would like to view herself) and from her others-self-concept (how she thinks others see her). Which self will she try to satisfy in making a purchase? Because it is difficult to answer this question, self-concept theory has had a mixed record of success in predicting consumer responses to brand images.15 Psychological Factors Influencing Buyer Behavior Psychological factors are the fourth major influence on consumer buying behavior (in addition to cultural, social, and personal factors). In general, a person’s buying choices are influenced by the psychological factors of motivation, perception, learning, beliefs, and attitudes. Motivation A person has many needs at any given time. Some needs are biogenic; they arise from physiological states of tension such as hunger, thirst, discomfort. Other needs are psychogenic; they arise from psychological states of tension such as the need for recognition, esteem, or belonging. A need becomes a motive when it is aroused to a sufficient level of intensity. A motive is a need that is sufficiently pressing to drive the person to act. Psychologists have developed theories of human motivation. Three of the best known—the theories of Sigmund Freud, Abraham Maslow, and Frederick Herzberg— carry quite different implications for consumer analysis and marketing strategy.
Slide 149: 94 ➤ CHAPTER 5 ANALYZING CONSUMER MARKETS AND BUYER BEHAVIOR Freud’s theory. Sigmund Freud assumed that the psychological forces shaping people’s behavior are largely unconscious, and that a person cannot fully understand his or her own motivations. A technique called laddering can be used to trace a person’s motivations from the stated instrumental ones to the more terminal ones. Then the marketer can decide at what level to develop the message and appeal.16 In line with Freud’s theory, consumers react not only to the stated capabilities of specific brands, but also to other, less conscious cues. Successful marketers are therefore mindful that shape, size, weight, material, color, and brand name can all trigger certain associations and emotions. Maslow’s theory. Abraham Maslow sought to explain why people are driven by particular needs at particular times.17 His theory is that human needs are arranged in a hierarchy, from the most to the least pressing. In order of importance, these five categories are physiological, safety, social, esteem, and self-actualization needs. A consumer will try to satisfy the most important need first; when that need is satisfied, the person will try to satisfy the next-most-pressing need. Maslow’s theory helps marketers understand how various products fit into the plans, goals, and lives of consumers. Herzberg’s theory. Frederick Herzberg developed a two-factor theory that distinguishes dissatisfiers (factors that cause dissatisfaction) from satisfiers (factors that cause satisfaction).18 The absence of dissatisfiers is not enough; satisfiers must be actively present to motivate a purchase. For example, a computer that comes without a warranty would be a dissatisfier. Yet the presence of a product warranty would not act as a satisfier or motivator of a purchase, because it is not a source of intrinsic satisfaction with the computer. Ease of use would, however, be a satisfier for a computer buyer. In line with this theory, marketers should avoid dissatisfiers that might unsell their products. They should also identify and supply the major satisfiers or motivators of purchase, because these satisfiers determine which brand consumers will buy. ➤ ➤ Perception A motivated person is ready to act, yet how that person actually acts is influenced by his or her perception of the situation. Perception is the process by which an individual selects, organizes, and interprets information inputs to create a meaningful picture of the world.19 Perception depends not only on physical stimuli, but also on the stimuli’s relation to the surrounding field and on conditions within the individual. The key word is individual. Individuals can have different perceptions of the same object because of three perceptual processes: selective attention, selective distortion, and selective retention. ➤ Selective attention. People are exposed to many daily stimuli such as ads; most of these stimuli are screened out—a process called selective attention. The end result is that marketers have to work hard to attract consumers’ attention. Through research, marketers have learned that people are more likely to notice stimuli that relate to a current need, which is why car shoppers notice car ads but not appliance ads. Furthermore, people are more likely to notice stimuli that they anticipate—such as foods being promoted on a food Web site. And people are more likely to notice stimuli whose deviations are large in relation to the normal size of the stimuli, such as a banner ad offering $100 (not just $5) off a product’s list price. Selective distortion. Even noticed stimuli do not always come across the way that marketers intend. Selective distortion is the tendency to twist information into ➤
Slide 150: How and Why Consumers Buy personal meanings and interpret information in a way that fits our preconceptions. Unfortunately, marketers can do little about selective distortion. ➤ Selective retention. People forget much that they learn but tend to retain information that supports their attitudes and beliefs. Because of selective retention, we are likely to remember good points mentioned about a product we like and forget good points mentioned about competing products. Selective retention explains why marketers use drama and repetition in messages to target audiences. 95 Learning When people act, they learn. Learning involves changes in an individual’s behavior that arise from experience. Most human behavior is learned. Theorists believe that learning is produced through the interplay of drives, stimuli, cues, responses, and reinforcement. A drive is a strong internal stimulus that impels action. Cues are minor stimuli that determine when, where, and how a person responds. Suppose you buy an IBM computer. If your experience is rewarding, your response to computers and IBM will be positively reinforced. Later, when you want to buy a printer, you may assume that because IBM makes good computers, it also makes good printers. You have now generalized your response to similar stimuli. A countertendency to generalization is discrimination, in which the person learns to recognize differences in sets of similar stimuli and adjust responses accordingly. Applying learning theory, marketers can build up demand for a product by associating it with strong drives, using motivating cues, and providing positive reinforcement. Beliefs and Attitudes Through doing and learning, people acquire beliefs and attitudes that, in turn, influence buying behavior. A belief is a descriptive thought that a person holds about something. Beliefs may be based on knowledge, opinion, or faith, and they may or may not carry an emotional charge. Of course, manufacturers are very interested in the beliefs that people have about their products and services. These beliefs make up product and brand images, and people act on their images. If some beliefs are wrong and inhibit purchase, the manufacturer will want to launch a campaign to correct these beliefs.20 Particularly important to global marketers is the fact that buyers often hold distinct beliefs about brands or products based on their country of origin. Studies have found, for example, that the impact of country of origin varies with the type of product. Consumers want to know where a car was made but not where lubricating oil came from. In addition, attitudes toward country of origin can change over time; Japan, for instance, had a poor quality image before World War II. A company has several options when its products’ place of origin turns off consumers. The company can consider co-production with a foreign company that has a better name. Another alternative is to hire a well-known celebrity to endorse the product. Or the company can adopt a strategy to achieve world-class quality in the local industry, as is the case with Belgian chocolates and Colombian coffee. This is what South African wineries are attempting to do as their wine exports increase. South African wines have been hurt by the perception that the country’s vineyards are primitive in comparison to those in other countries and that wine farmers are continuing crude labor practices. In reality, South Africa’s wine farmers have improved the lives of their workers. “Wine is such a product of origin that we cannot succeed if South Africa doesn’t look good,” says Willem Barnard, chief executive of the Ko-operatieve Wijnbouwers Vereniging, the farmers’ co-op that dominates the industry.21