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Slide 1: The Credit Crisis: What Went Wrong? 35th General Assembly of the Geneva Association Hamilton, Bermuda May 29, 2008 Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President Insurance Information Institute ♦ 110 William Street ♦ New York, NY 10038 Tel: (212) 346-5520 ♦ Fax: (212) 732-1916 ♦ bobh@iii.org ♦ www.iii.org
Slide 2: Five Distinguishing Characteristics of the Credit Crisis 1. The crisis originated not in small or financially immature economies fraught with political risk as in the past (e.g., Latin America) but in large, well established and sophisticated financial markets, primarily the United States 3. The crisis was created and exacerbated by some of the largest, most sophisticated financial institutions in the world, suggesting a collapse of basic risk management 5. The crisis was triggered, transmitted and fueled not by widespread defaults on debt instruments as in past credit crises but through excessive leverage (borrowing) and widespread securitization of complex structured financial products. The leverage amplified even small changes in real (or perceived) risk associated with the underlying debt instruments which were then transmitted globally via securitization
Slide 3: Five Distinguishing Characteristics of the Credit Crisis 1. Regulatory and accounting mechanisms for identifying, monitoring, quantifying and controlling excessive exposure to credit risk were at best ineffective and at worst outright failures  Raises fundamental questions regarding the current nature and form of regulation, its adequacy as well as necessary proscriptive changes to prevent such collapses in the future  Do mark-to-market requirements exacerbate the problem? • Traditional economic policy tools (such as central bank interest rate reductions and fiscal stimulus initiatives) were not designed to manage credit and liquidity crises and are therefore are of limited effectiveness.
Slide 4: Credit Crisis Media Coverage of the Insurance Industry Bond Insurance Dominated Headlines
Slide 5: Media Coverage of Subprime Exposure of Insurers* 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 J na 07 Fe b - M r- A a pr- M y- J a un07 07 07 07 07 J ul07 January 2007—May 2008 Peak of media coverage of subprime issue pertaining to insurers was Feb. 2008* Coverage has receded to pre-crisis levels A - S p- Oc t- N v- De c - J nug e o a 07 07 07 07 07 08 Fe b - M r- A a pr- M ya 08 08 08 08 Source: Lexis/Nexis searches. *Excluding bond/monoline insurers.
Slide 6: Media Coverage of Bond Insurance/Bond Insurers 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 J n- Fe b - M r- A a a pr- M y- J a un07 07 07 07 07 07 J ul07 January 2007—May 2008 Peak of media coverage of bond insurance issue was Feb. 2008 with near collapse of several bond insurers Coverage has receded to near pre-crisis levels A - S p- Oc t- N v- De c - J n- Fe b - M r- A ug e o a a pr- M ya 07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 Source: Lexis/Nexis searches.
Slide 7: Media Coverage of Key Insurance Issues: Jan-May 2008 vs. Jan-May 2007 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% nd 124% Coverage of bond insurance soared 124% through May 2008 65% 29% 2% Media coverage of bond (monoline) insurers dominated headlines during the first 5 months of 2008 -10% -17% ir es ur ri ca ne s ris m su ra nc e ns on di tio W ild f -30% ss ue s -41% -41% ne rs I ns ur an ce -50% In su ra nc e Ch an ge M ar ke tC Bo A C lim Sources: Insurance Information Institute from Lexis/Nexis search. H om eo w In ve st ig at io ns rr o Te In rt I ut o To at e H
Slide 8: Media Coverage of D&O/E&O Insurance/Insurers 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 J na 07 Fe b - M r- A a pr- M y- J a un07 07 07 07 07 J ul07 January 2007—May 2008 Peak of media coverage of D&O/E&O insurance issue was Jan. 2008 Media coverage has receded to pre-crisis levels A - S p- Oc t- N v- De c - J nug e o a 07 07 07 07 07 08 Fe b - M r- A a pr- M ya 08 08 08 08 Source: Lexis/Nexis searches.
Slide 9: Credit Crisis Public Public Perceptions of the Insurance Industry Consumers Concerns
Slide 10: POLL: Has the Insurance Industry Been Affected by the Downturn in the Economy? Nearly 3 in 4 Americans believe that the economic downturn has adversely affected the insurance industry Yes 74% No 17% Don't Know 9% Source: Insurance Information Institute, 2008 Pulse Survey, May 2008.
Slide 11: POLL: How Will US Economic/Financial Problems Affect Insurers? 70% of those polled believe that the recent national economic and financial conditions harm insurers’ ability to pay claims and sell insurance Affects Ability to Pay Claims AND Sell Insurance 70% Affects Ability to Pay Claims 12% Affects Ability to Sell Insurance 8% Doesn't Affect Ability to Pay Claims or Sell Insurance 7% Don't Know 3% Source: Insurance Information Institute, 2008 Pulse Survey, May 2008.
Slide 12: POLL: How Important is the Financial Strength of Your Insurance Company? 78% of those polled believe that an insurer’s financial strength is “Extremely” or “Very” important Extremely Important 37% Very Important 41% Don't Know 2% Not At All Important 3% Not Very Important 2% Somewhat Important 15% Source: Insurance Information Institute, 2008 Pulse Survey, May 2008.
Slide 13: POLL: What is the MOST Important Quality to You When You Choose and Insurer? Americans are nearly equally divided between price, service and financial strength when it comes to the most important quality of their insurer Service 31% Financial Strength & Stability 35% Price 31% Source: Insurance Information Institute, 2008 Pulse Survey, May 2008. Don't Know 3%
Slide 14: The Credit Crisis: Download at: www.iii.org/media/presentations/CreditCrisis 35th General Assembly of the Geneva Association Hamilton, Bermuda May 29, 2008 Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President Insurance Information Institute ♦ 110 William Street ♦ New York, NY 10038 Tel: (212) 346-5520 ♦ Fax: (212) 732-1916 ♦ bobh@iii.org ♦ www.iii.org What Went Wrong?