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Slide 1: AN ECONOMIC DEVELOMENT STRATEGY FOR BLAINE COUNTY PROGRESS REPORT October 2008 TIP Strategies Alan Cox Meredith Whitten
Slide 2: TIP • • • • • • About us About the process Our framework Data findings SWOT Discussion | agenda
Slide 3: TIP | about us
Slide 4: TIP TIP STRATEGIES INC | what we do is an economic development consulting firm based in Austin, Texas, USA. Our core strength is in strategic planning with special emphasis in these areas: Economic assessment & trend analysis Benchmarking & measurement Target industry & cluster analysis Location & land-use analysis Fiscal impact analysis
Slide 5: TIP Projects
Slide 6: TIP | about the process
Slide 7: Project timeline AUG DISCOVERY OPPORTUNITY SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB Data analysis, field work, site visits We are here Vision, benchmarking, additional field work as needed Finalize strategies, action items, budget, measures, etc. IMPLEMENTATION FINAL Roll-out
Slide 8: Activities to date • Data collection – – – – – – – Demographics Migration Housing & income Traffic & commuting Economy & tax base Workforce Benchmarks • Interviews/focus group meetings
Slide 9: TIP August: • City reps (Bellevue, Carey, Hailey, Ketchum, Sun Valley) • School district • 2 county commissioners • St. Luke’s hospital • Hailey Chamber • Workforce commission • 2 community-wide forums | interviews & focus groups October: • Housing groups • Land trusts • Youth group • 1 county commissioner • Tourism representatives • Sun Valley/Ketchum Chamber • Sun Valley biz owners and homeowners September: • Rocky Mt. Hardware • Power Engineers • Young professionals • Sun Valley Co. • Scott USA • WREP • Smith Optics • Realtors • Entrepreneurs • Agriculture
Slide 10: TIP – – – – | next visit • Upcoming communitywide workshop: Charette format with break-out groups Establish vision Identify opportunities Form task forces • November 18
Slide 11: TIP | our framework
Slide 12: TIP economic development (n) | definition 1) the application of public resources to stimulate private investment
Slide 13: EC DEV | evolution of goals 2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 talent / innovation / place knowledge higher wages more jobs buildings lut evo ry s iona cale
Slide 14: TIP Industry | a new framework The traditional ED model focuses on place-based industrial recruitment and job creation as a means to stimulate economic growth. Innovation & Capital Sites Jobs Our model focuses on the factors that play essential roles in stimulating economic vitality in a community. Quality of Place Talent
Slide 15: TIP defined TALENT • Individuals that posses the skills and values to make organizations more effective INNOVATION • The sectors and entities that leverage technology and advanced processes for design, manufacturing and services. PLACE • Viewing the assets of your community through the eyes of the talent you wish to attract and retain.
Slide 16: BLAINE CO. | data findings
Slide 17: BLAINE COUNTY RESIDENT POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY AGE, 1980 vs 2030 20% Age 0 to 4 Age 5 to 9 Age 10 to 14 Age 15 to 19 Age 20 to 24 Age 25 to 29 Age 30 to 34 Age 35 to 39 Age 40 to 44 Age 45 to 49 Age 50 to 54 Age 55 to 59 Age 60 to 64 Age 65 and greater SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census (accessed via Moody's Analytics) 15% 10% 1980 5% 0% 8% 7% 7% 7% 11% 2030 5% 10% 6% 5% 6% 6% 15% 20% 4% 4% 6% 8% 8% 9% 9% 8% 7% 16% ● Comparing Blaine County's age distribution in 1980 to the projected distribution in 2030 shows how the population is evolving. Our perspective in 2008 is near the mid-point of this 50-year period of change. ● The long-term changes are stark. All age cohorts over 40 rise as a share of the population while all age chorts under 35 decline. The long-term decline among young adults in their 20s and early 30s is particularly notable. 14% 13% 8% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 6%
Slide 18: NET MIGRATION FLOWS TO/FROM BLAINE COUNTY BY TYPE In-State +250 +200 +150 +100 Net Inflow Out-of-State +250 +200 +150 +100 +50 +0 −50 −100 −150 −200 −250 +250 +200 +150 +100 +50 +0 −50 −100 −150 −200 −250 1997 2007 1997 Foreign Net Outflow +50 +0 −50 −100 −150 −200 −250 1997 2007 2007 SOURCE: U.S. Internal Revenue Service (accessed via Moody's Analytics) ● By digging deeper into the IRS data, we learn even more about Blaine County's migration patterns. Even though total net domestic migration flucturates back and forth from year to year, the net totals are much more consistent when separated into in-state and out-ofstate of flows. ● The net migration patterns within Idaho tend to be consistently net outflows to other counties. Meanwhile, the net patterns with other states tend to be steady net inflows of new residents.
Slide 19: TOP 3 NET MIGRATION FLOW PATTERNS WITH BLAINE COUNTY Ada County, ID +50 +25 Net Inflow Twin Falls County, ID +50 +50 Lincoln County, ID +0 Net Outflow +0 +0 −25 −50 −75 −100 −125 −150 1990 2007 −150 1990 2007 −150 1990 2007 −100 −100 −50 −50 NOTE: Complete data for Lincoln County, ID, unavailable prior to 1998 SOURCE: U.S. Internal Revenue Service (accessed via Moody's Analytics) ● Blaine County has significant annual migration flow patterns with Ada, Twin Falls, and Lincoln counties in Idaho. In most years, the balance is a net outflow from Blaine to these three counties. The outflows to Ada County are particularly notable.
Slide 20: BLAINE COUNTY HOUSEHOLDS vs. HOUSING STOCK 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 ● Blaine County adds new housing units faster 10,000 than it adds new 9,000 households. This makes 8,000 sense in a resort area. A large portion of new 7,000 housing units would logically represent second 6,000 homes rather than primary 5,000 residences. 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census (accessed via Moody's Analytics) Number of permanent households Number of housing units
Slide 21: BLAINE COUNTY SINGLE-FAMILY SALES PRICES VERSUS NEW CONSTRUCTION VALUES Median Sales Price for an Existing Single-Family Home Average Permitted Value of a Single-Family Home $1,000,000 $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 ● Comparing averages and medians can be dangerous, especially in thinly populated areas with skewed incomes. With that caveat, however, such a comparison can still be a useful rule-of-thumb when considering the median sale price of an existing single-family home to actual local construction costs for a new single-family home. ● In many areas of the country where housing prices in recent years spun out of control, this type of sales price-toconstruction cost comparison shows that median sale prices far exceed average construction values, thus indicating a potential price bubble. In Blaine County, we see the opposite. Recent construction costs have escalated well beyond median sales prices for existing single-family units. This hints at the rapidly rising affluence of new full and part-time residents who will occupy the newly constructed units. SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau; National Association of Realtors; Moody's Analytics
Slide 22: BLAINE COUNTY IMBALANCE: MORE JOBS THAN EMPLOYED RESIDENTS 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Blaine County Jobs Employed Blaine County Residents ● Comparing employment data from two separate collection processes can be problematic. However, in a place like Blaine County, it is important to understand the distinct differences between what labor economists call "household employment" and "establishment employment". This means counting jobs either by where people live or by where they work. ● By comparing the BEA's establishement-based wage and salary employment series to the BLS's household survey, we see a growing discrepancy. The number of jobs in Blaine County is greater than the number of employed residents and the gap appears to be widening over time. This underscores data in previous charts that showed a growing net volume of inbound commuters into the county. SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Staitstics (household survey); U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (wage & salary employment by place of work), accessed via Moody's Analytics
Slide 23: BLAINE COUNTY INDUSTRIES Industry Construction Accommodation & food services Retail trade Real estate Professional & technical services Personal & other services Administrative & waste services Local government Health care & social assistance Arts, entertainment, & recreation Finance & insurance Manufacturing Information Wholesale trade Farm Educational services Transportation & warehousing Forestry & fishing Federal government (civilian) Mining Federal government (military) Corporate & regional headquarters State government Utilities Total SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (accessed via Moody's Analytics) ● Blaine County's industry employment reflects exactly what it is: a fast-growing county with a tourism based economy. ● High employment totals for construction and real estate indicate fast growth. In a less dynamic county, these job totals would be lower. ● Abundant numbers of jobs in accomodation and food services, retail trade, and personal services underscore the importance of tourism to the county. 2006 Employment 3,506 2,813 2,254 2,238 1,695 1,587 1,478 1,215 848 803 793 572 434 362 323 283 239 123 118 101 84 49 40 18 21,976
Slide 24: BLAINE COUNTY INDUSTRIES above average (>1.25) average (0.75 to 1.25) below average (<0.75) 2001-2006 Net Chg. +610 +482 +313 +296 +245 +225 +222 +218 +206 +192 +143 +94 +86 +49 +16 +12 +9 +5 +5 +4 +2 -2 -9 -35 +3,388 2006 Location Quotient 2.36 2.46 0.95 1.27 0.70 1.12 1.18 0.76 1.80 1.91 0.98 0.62 0.31 0.45 0.34 0.39 0.21 0.33 0.34 0.26 0.98 0.06 0.91 0.92 1.00 Industry Real estate Construction Retail trade Personal & other services Local government Administrative & waste services Professional & technical services Finance & insurance Arts, entertainment, & recreation Accommodation & food services Information Educational services Manufacturing Wholesale trade Federal government (civilian) Health care & social assistance Corporate & regional headquarters Federal government (military) Transportation & warehousing Utilities Forestry & fishing State government Farm Mining Total SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (accessed via Moody's Analytics)
Slide 25: SWOT | Initial thoughts
Slide 26: BLAINE Co. | weaknesses TALENT • Difficulty in recruiting & retaining workers • Limited higher education INNOVATION • Lack of diversity in economy PLACE • Cost of living • Limited developable land • Accessibility/isolation ORGANIZATION • No cohesive economic development efforts (no dedicated organization) • Lack of countywide consensus
Slide 27: BLAINE Co. | threats SHORT-TERM • National economy (effects on tourism, real estate, etc.) • Reduction in flight service (airlines struggling) • Continued loss of employers & young workers LONG-TERM • Aging population (workforce & tourists) • Instability in energy costs (effects on commuters & visitors) • Rental rates burdening local businesses • Increase in traffic
Slide 28: BLAINE Co. | strengths TALENT • Educated/skilled workforce • Entrepreneurial culture • Public schools above state avg. INNOVATION • Healthcare/hospital • Home-grown success stories (Scott, Power, Smith, Rocky Mountain) PLACE • Plentiful outdoor recreational opportunities • Other amenities (cultural, local retail) • Established destination/national name recognition
Slide 29: BLAINE Co. | opportunities SHORT-TERM • Countywide economic development program • BRE program • Talent retention & recruitment campaign • Strengthening entrepreneurial efforts • Bus linkage between Blaine & Twin LONG-TERM • Airport relocation • Redevelopment of airport site • Other site-specific (redevelopment & greenfield) • International investment • Higher education? • Cluster development: – Diversify tourism options – Green/sustainability – Health/wellness – Research & development
Slide 30: Discussion
Slide 31: Thank you TIP Strategies, Inc. 7000 N. MoPac, Ste. 305 Austin, TX 78731 512.343.9113 tel 512.343.9190 fax www.TIPstrategies.com alan@tipstrategies.com meredith@tipstrategies.com