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Slide 1: Technology Trends 2004-2008 Bob Hayward These materials can be reproduced only with Gartner’s official approval. Such approvals may be requested via e-mail -quote.requests@gartner.com.
Slide 2: The Long View – Mid-Life Pause For Breath for IT-based Transformation of Business Relative importance Embedded Connectivity Logical Connectivity Physical Connectivity PCs Mainframes "Knowledge" Age Nano & Quantum Age Silicon Age ? 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Slide 3: Technology Laws and Innovation Continue… Moore’s Law – The Fifth Paradigm Electromechanical 10+10 10+8 10+6 10+4 10+2 10 10-2 10-4 10-6 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Relay Transistor Vacuum Tube Integrated Circuit Calculations Per Second Per $1,000. © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Exponential Scale 3
Slide 4: The Hype Cycle Do not join in just because it is "in" Positive Hype Negative Hype Do not miss out just because it is "out" Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Maturity Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 4
Slide 5: Emerging technologies hype cycle Key: Time to Plateau Less than two years Visibility Instant messaging, retail Two to five years Five to 10 years More than 10 years Business rules engine Document imaging Document management/archive Web services Mobile applications, corporate Mobile payments Data mining Network identity services Partner relationship management (PRM) Sales planning and pricing tools Mobile applications, retail Instant messaging, corporate Grid computing Contact chip cards, Europe Artificial intelligence Biometrics E-tag Intelligent agents/push technology E-signatures Speech and voice technologies Contact chip cards, U.S. Chip-based cards, corporate As of May 2003 Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Maturity 5
Slide 6: Radar Screen Benefit Digital Wallets Web Services New business WAP/Wireless Web E-Tags Location Sensing models E-Payments Bluetooth Nanocomputing Wireless VoIP LANs/802.11 New Speech Recognition processes Personal Fuel Cells Grid Biometrics P2P Computing Natural Text-to-Speech Language Improved PKI VPN PDA Search processes Phones Low: demonstrations, prototypes and pilots © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Maturity Moderate: Usable with motivation
Slide 7: Technologies at Different Speeds Biometrics “Autonomic Computing” Desktop Videoconferencing DNA-Computing Fiber optics Tele-Immersion Holographic Storage Nano-Computing Quantum-Decryption “Intelligent Agents” Machine Translation Intelligent Clothes Handwriting Recognition Smart Dust Speech Recognition     Internet E-mail One to two decades from trigger to plateau Science-fiction-like fascination Inherent complexity, business implications. Reliance on certain infrastructure, skills      Long-fuse technologies “Fast Track” Technologies © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Two to four years from trigger to plateau IM, SMS, USB Performance peaks early Flash Cards. Uses current infrastructure/standards Easy to use Vendor support 7
Slide 8: Gartner Predicts: Ten Hot Technologies 2004 The Top Ten Technologies Instant Messaging Real Time Data Warehouse WiFi Security Internal Web Services Policy based management IP Telephony Utility Computing Grid Computing Network Security Technologies RFID Tags Maturing in 18-36 months Wider Applicability Issues Resolved Lowered Risk © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Slide 9: Instant Messaging in the Enterprise Values: Presence Service Real-time No rewind Low overhead Security concerns: Data protection Privacy Tamper resistance © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Other Issues: Lack of audit trail QoS limitations Poor integration capability Lost record of decisions Text focused, limited media 9
Slide 10: Options for developing a ‘Real-Time’ Data Warehouse “Creative Scheduling” Source Source Source Source Source Replication Source Source Source ETL ETL ETL ETL ETL ETL DW Data Warehouse As An Application Source Source Source Source Replicate Replicate Replicate Replicate DW Avoid The Issue — No Data Warehouse! Source Source Source Source Integration Broker Target Apps. © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. ETL DW DW 10 BI Tools and Applications
Slide 11: On the Cusp of the Most Fundamental Change to Business Since The Internet  IT Architecture, concepts and business philosophy have reached a critical tipping point: – Service Oriented Architectures (SOA), Event Driven Architectures (EDA), Service Oriented Business Applications (SOBA), Service Oriented Development of Applications (SODA), Web Services, Real Time Enterprise (RTE), Business Process Management (BPM) and Modeling and Business Process Fusion gaining major traction and move towards critical mass and mainstream adoption Maturity in these areas will drive dramatic changes in the way we do business, to a degree not seen since the advent of the Internet © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 11
Slide 12: No Business Is an Island: The Increased Dependence on IT for Business Processes Customer Customer Customer Business Process Business Process Business Process IT IT IT Low © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 12 High Integration of IT and Business Processes
Slide 13: Key Trend: Software as a Service  Business Focus & Alignment Services provisioned by service provider (i.e., like voice services provided by a telco) – customer buying a service with no concern or awareness of enabling applications Business Services – – – – – Application agnostic Net-native software Pay for use Business process focused Lower cost  Software As Service – – – – – Speed to solution Rental model Remote delivery Vertical templates Medium cost External applications managed by service provider - customer buying access to an application  Software As Product – License model – Customization required – Post implementation hosting – Expensive External applications managed by customer – customer buying application Time © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 13 2014
Slide 14: Internal Use of Web Services Scope of Deployment Level 3: Unlimited- Potential Prospects, Suppliers, and Influencers — 2007 Level 2: Limited External-Trading Partner Integration — 2005 “B” “C” Scope of Control XML-driven internet cross-industry extended supply chain “C” =Open Sourced Web ServicesUDDI Directories Level 1: InternalcrossBuilding “A” enterprise E-hubsCIO cross2003 office application 1 dept. . U.S. & Int’l standards bodies industry consortia (public) channel master (private) “B” = Shared Web services for closely held supply chains and narrow partner groupings “A” = Proprietary web services for internal integration © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 14
Slide 15: The Emerging Standards Stack Key: In place Need Business Semantics Identifying Standard Liberty, Passport ebXML, UBL, RosettaNet Workflow/BPM BPEL4WS, BPML, WSCI Building trust User interface Reliability Search & find Description Messaging Format Transport WS-Security, SAML, XRML WSRP, WSIA WS-Reliable Messaging UDDI WSDL SOAP XML Common Internet Protocols (e.g., TCP/IP, HTTP) 15 Eventually Emerging Established Entrenched © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Slide 16: Software As A Service Integrated SODA Environment ISE — Producer Platform SOBA Designers/Modelers Registry Pub/Sub Generators Service Wrappers Runtime Engines (for example, Customer record (multiple systems, composite or adapted services) SODA Assembly Editor Orchestration Editor Rules Editor Integrated Development Framework and IDE SES Portal Integration Transactions Application Platform Suite (APS) © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 16 ER P SOA Shared Management Infrastructure Business Application Services CR Shared Middleware Infrastructure M
Slide 17: 2005 to 2006: Move Toward BPF and RTE With Composite Applications 1998: Rigid and simple Proprietary, monolithic app suites & modules, MOM Market Process 1 Process 2 Process 3 Process 4 Business Event Response Function-focused business processes (& MOM) 2005-6: Flexible but complex Web-enabled, services-wrapped composite apps BPM Market Event Process 1 2 3 4 Business Response Cross-function, multienterprise business processes (& BPM) 2008: Fusion & consolidation SOA & CEP enabled business process fusion Market Event Business Response End-to-end virtual processes and relationships (& CEP) © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 17
Slide 18: Processing Styles — Remove the Architecture Silos Messaging Data warehouse and analytics Transactions and RDBMS Document store and workflow © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 18
Slide 19: Business Process Fusion Enables End-to-End Applications and Processes Application Style Noteworthy Architectural Element Determine Yearly Sales Volumes by Customer Analyze Customer Profitability Discuss & Record “T’s & C’s” of Customers’ Relationships Optimize Value of All Contracts With All Customers TransactionBased Systems RDBMS Analytics Systems Data Warehouse Collaboration, Content and Workflow Unstructured Data Mgmt. Business Process Fusion Applications   Cross-functional processes (internal and external) End-to-End process support 19    © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. All content types Embedded analytics Services-based
Slide 20: Application Requirements Expand Data to Knowledge; Transactions to Process Innovation Maturity Mission- Business in 2003 Critical Value End-to-End Processing Business Process Fusion Low Low 2007 High Business Collaboration Smart Enterprise Suites, Multienterprise 2005 Transaction Processing ERP, SCM, Customer Transactions, etc. High Med Now 2005 2004 Low Leverage Enterprise Knowledge Content, Data, Analytics, Relationship Mgmt Flexible Application Platform Portal, Integration, App Server, APS, SOA © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 20 Low
Slide 21: Gartner Predicts: Application Development Models, Toolsets Are Changing New Projects Programming Models 100% 3M Professional Developers Visual Basic 6 and lower Java Proprietary Vendor 4GL, AS/400 RPG, Mainframe COBOL, etc. 2M 50% COBOL Visual Basic .NET C# Microsoft .NET Microsoft DNA 1M C/C++ Java Platforms 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 21 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Slide 22: Static and Unshared Islands Service A Edge Service B Service C (And Many Others) Application Database Current state is inflexible and does not reflect business priorities © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 22 • Inefficient • Overprovisioned • Hard to manage
Slide 23: Policy Based Management: The Real-Time Infrastructure INPUTS Black-Box Application Services OUTPUTS Policies • • • • Definition of IT Service Service Agreements User Class Business Priorities Workloads Applications Databases Middleware Resources Compute Store IT Services Actual User Experience Network Policy-based, dynamic, cost-efficient: • Provisioning: Deployment, Growth • Optimization: Resource Efficiency • Availability: Predictable, Service Level 23 © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Slide 24: IP Telephony IP telephony issues Features vs PBX Scalability Reliability QoS and sharing networks Interoperability VoIP on WAN issues QoS control Economics vs carrier trends IP variable latency Standards and interoperability Some Missing Features Very Large IP telephony (2,000 or more phones) Large IP Telephony (500 or more phones) Less then 500 phones; VoIP over WAN Attendant console Least cost routing Busy override Trunk callback queuing Blind transfer © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 24
Slide 25: Utility Computing • Utility computing • Buy the services of system, not HW/SW • Separates the ‘what’ from the ‘how’ • Pricing model tends toward usage • Examples: ASPs, SSPs, MSPs, hosting services • Access them various ways • Web services • Browsers • Thick clients •... © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 25 8.6B$ 2003 25B$ 2006
Slide 26: GRID Computing Application Owner A © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Owner B 26 Owner C
Slide 27: Utility Computing and GRID Application Owner A © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 27 Utility selling grid resources
Slide 28: New Network Security Technology U n Content Scanning i f ? i e d M a n a g e m e n t Firewalls Gigabit+ In the Cloud MSS IDS VA Security Platform Policies and Parameters Gateway AV ? Antispam Sub100 Mb 2004 28 Honey Pots, Application Traces and Forensics 2002 Intrusion Prevention Appliances 2006 © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Slide 29: RFID Tag Successor to Bar Codes  Can read even covered  Can read while moving  Can scan at distance  Survives water, heat, painting  Price dropping to low levels  Remain in product for life Current Applications  Toll pass systems  Pet identification  Access cards  Retail theft protection  Electronic parolee tracking Photos source Texas Instruments © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 29 Potential Applications  Locate common objects  Improved asset control  Real-time retail-shelf inventory  Move to faster or self-checkout  Improve manufacturing and supply-chain efficiency  After-sale services offerings
Slide 30: “Smart” Objects • Passive tags temporarily attached to medium-/highvalue items. • Dedicated communication and computation is applied in specialized situations only. • Computers are relatively large and long-lived. • Passive tags in every nontrivial object. • Active intelligence wireless networking and sensing capabilities cost under 50c and are widely distributed. • The majority of computers are invisible and disposable. 2002 • Bar coded shopping. • Inventory tagging. • Specialized industrial tagging. © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 30 2015 • Nothing is ever lost. • Everything is identifiable. • Many objects know their history and can interact wirelessly.
Slide 31: Analysis: Mind the Gap Analysis Gap More information       Action Gap Improved understanding    Improved decisions   Digital footprints (Sensors, RFID) Self-service Information extraction Unstructured data sources Embedded connectivity Metadata and tags Improved algorithms Targeted algorithms Integrated analysis Business rules Business process fusion © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 31
Slide 32: Gartner Predicts: Linux in the Enterprise: Grass Roots Client Devices Internet Access Infrastructure Server/Blade Line of Business Business Application Server Enterprise Data Data/Content Server/ Warehouse Desktops Proxy • Caching • VPN • Firewall • WAP • VoIP Gateway • Directory • Security • Load balance • File/print • Web • E-mail • NAS • ERP • SCM • CRM • HR • Databases • Consolidation on zSeries • Network Edge Servers 32 Compute Clusters Financial, R&D, biotech, geophysical, energy, visualize © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Slide 33: Gartner Predicts: Smart Enterprise Suite — A New Wave of Software Consolidation Office Suite Word Processor Spreadsheet Charting Personal Database ERP Suite Material Requirements Planning Inventory Control Financials Human Resources 33 Smart Enterprise Suite Collaboration Support Content Management Information Access Portal Framework © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Slide 34: SES — What to Expect Content management Collaboration Information organization and retrieval Business intelligence Portal framework Ad hoc process support Expertise location and management Community support With:  Sufficient range of functionality price points offer for individual, team and enterprise processes across suite — for user and administration and support  Aggressive  Coherent  Integration  Services © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Slide 35: Three Megatrends Connected Society wireless wearables locationbased services smart phones Smart Networked Objects RFID digital ink smart dust MEMS embedded computing Wi-Fi ultra-wide band Semantic Connectivity Semantic Web XBRL © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. automatic tagging affinity profiles information extraction
Slide 36: Mobile and Wireless in the Next Decade By 2007, hubs (central units without peripherals) will emerge that connect many peripherals (e.g., via PAN).  Lots of Functions: Phone, Calendar, Internet, MP3 Player, Camera, Video, House/Car Key, Payment, Authentication, Biometrics, Life Saving, Stun Gunning, Insect Repelling  Shared Hub: I/O, Security, Battery, Storage, Call Center PDA Hub  A mix of technologies, e.g., Zigbee, UWB, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi x.y, 2.5/3/4G, will allow best economical mix: Mesh reliability, costs, size, bandwidth, reach Sensor Mesh Networks/Monitoring Self-Organizing Principles: Plug-and-Play   Networks Tags, Motes, GPS © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.    RFID, Smart Dust (Smart Peas), GPS Sensors Fleet Management (AVLDS), Inventory Management Optimized Traffic Routing 36
Slide 37: Mobile Network Evolution Location precision of 80 M or better 2006 WCDMA ? 1x-EV DV cdma2000 1xRTT EV DO WCDMA 2005 2004 3G Assume 200-300 Kbps 2.5G Assume 80-100 Kbps EDGE, 20-40 Kbps GPRS 2G Assume 9.6-19.6 Kbps EDGE Cell Cell location 2003 location (worst GPRS (worst case, case, several 2002 several Km) Km) 2001 TDMA CDMA CDMA GSM CDMA 37 EDGE GPRS GSM GSM © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Slide 38: Short-Range Wireless Adjacent Personal Area Local Area Metropolitan Near field Passive RFID Active RFID UWB 802.15.4 (Zigbee) Bluetooth Proprietary PAN 10M 38 Proprietary mesh 802.11 a,b e,g,h,i,f (b = Wi-Fi) 802.16a (Wi-Max) 802.16b (mobile) Proprietary fixed mesh 802.20 (mobile) 1M © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 100M 1KM
Slide 39: Device Innovation, 2003-2005 Market Trends  Fashion is still key  Annuity handset revenue  Nokia n-gage console  Asian manufacturers  Consumer Technology Trends  Color, polyphonic sound  Imaging, video, cameras  Game technology  M-commerce hardware           Greater competition, e.g., Dell, Microsoft Fragmentation, not convergence Microsoft and Symbian battle for corporate "mind share" No single-standard corporate device Corporate 39 Java everywhere Form-factor proliferation Slow Bluetooth deployment Integrated WLAN Microsoft .NET grows 1GHz, PDA by 2005 Tablet PC © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Slide 40: The Diverse Mobile User Mobile Population B2C Pre-Teen Teen Young Adult Middle Aged Senior Citizen B2E, B2B, B2G Mobile Exec. Sales Knowledge Worker Fleet Delivery Field Service Construction/ Maintenance Critical Workers Caregiver Hazardous Education Site Rover Point of Sale Dock Worker Warehouse Site Security Head Office Telecommuter SMB 40 M2M Meters Vending Kiosk Campus Workers ATM Vehicular Mass Transit Supervisory Control Preventative Maintenance Traveling Workers (Road Warriors) OfficeCentric © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Slide 41: Primary Modes of Mobile Workers Power Knowledge Alerts Thin client, Read, onebutton response Avg. Annual Cost: $416 Unstructured messages Message Well-defined, and forms, structured E-mail-centric, cached thin/slim thick client slim offline Avg. Annual client Avg. Annual Cost: $2,296 Avg. Annual Cost: $889 Cost: $1,183 Forms Full fidelity thick client Avg. Annual Cost: $3,106 © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Gartner estimates as of February 2003 41
Slide 42: Computer Human Interaction in the Next Decade     Biometrics, Speech, Handwriting, Eye Position Gait Analysis, Infrared Emotion/Lie Detection SPA: Most CHI will remain keyboard-driven throughout 2015 (0.7 probability) Human  Computer     OLED/OLEP, E-Ink Head-Mounted Displays Speech Synthesis Avatars, Synthetic Characters     Computer  Human Logic Natural Language Search Machine Translation Taxonomies/Browsing Personalization 42 © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Slide 43: The Connected Economy Opens the Door to New Dependencies and Threats Political & social instability Services IP Supply Chain Services Supply Chain Geographical & cultural remoteness Electronic fraud Lack of trust in Internet security Supplier dependency IP Uncontrolled distribution of information IP IP In recent years, we have witnessed terrorist attacks, political unrest, war and most recently SARS which has forced us to urgently address the business issues of globalization in a way never before required © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 43
Slide 44: The Basics Demand Attention and Spending: Security, Governance, Transparency The World in 1995-2002 Enterprise Security  Creative Accounting  Secrecy, Confidentiality  Investors Seek Big Ideas  Audit Provides Opinions  Better Management  The World in 2003-2006 Universal Security  Compliant Accounting  Transparency  Investors Seek Value  Audit Certifies Accuracy  Better Governance  2004-06: 50% annual increases in spending for “basic” applications to ensure security, governance and transparency Lower spending, less attention to next-generation applications © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 44
Slide 45: Regulation is Tightening on Corporate Governance Management, Privacy and Security Database Security Breach Notification Act (California) Turnbull (All industries, UK) Data Protection Directives (EU) Sarbanes-Oxley (All industries,USA) Basel II (Financial Services, world-wide) [pending] © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 45 IFRS (accounting, Australia)
Slide 46: This Next Wave of Technology Will Cause Massive Disruption in the IT Workforce and Societies Infrastructure becomes more reliable and robust IT professionals that are now employed to perform administration and maintenance functions must upgrade their skills Application development shifts to a service model Programmers also must upgrade their skill sets. Assembly overtakes coding. Secure robust, wireless networks will reach critical mass Broadband, wireless, Linux, content management, real-time analytics, data mining, security, middleware and certification skills will be highly valued Global, ubiquitous communications Arbitrage of costs, global delivery models Replacement or reduction of entire industries 46 © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Slide 47: Technology Trends 2004-2008 Bob Hayward These materials can be reproduced only with Gartner’s official approval. Such approvals may be requested via e-mail -quote.requests@gartner.com.