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Indias Future Gurcharan Das 

 

 
 
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Published:  February 01, 2012
 
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Slide 1: INDIA’S FUTURE Or prosperity will spread in India but happiness will not, until we fix governance by Gurcharan Das WIPRO Marbella November 12, 2009
Slide 2:  Where are we coming from?  Where are we today?  Where are we going in the future?
Slide 3: Even though the world has just discovered it, the India growth story is not new It has been going on for 25 years
Slide 4: What is the India story?
Slide 5: 28 years of high growth (%) 10 8 6 4 2 0 1900-1950 1950-1980 1980-2002 2002-2007 1.0 3.5 6.0 Average annual GDP growth 8.9
Slide 6: Population growth is slowing (%) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 1901-1950 1951-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 1.0 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.5 Sources: 1900-1990: Angus Maddison (1995), Monitoring the World Economy, 1990-2000:Census of India (2001)
Slide 7: Literacy is rising (%) 100 80 60 40 20 0 17 52 65 80 1950 1990 2000 2010 (proj) Source: Census of India (2001)
Slide 8: When middle class is 50% then the politics will also change (m) 400 300 200 100 0 65 1980 2000 2010 220 22% 8% 368 32% Source: The Consuming Class, National Council of Applied Economic Research, 2002
Slide 9: Poverty is declining (%) 50 40 30 20 10 0 1980 2000 26 16 46 1% of the people have been crossing poverty line each year for 25 years Equals ~ 200m 2010
Slide 10: Per capita income gains US$ ppp 1,178 1980 3,051 2005 Source: World Bank
Slide 11: India is now the 4th largest economy It will overtake Japan between 2012 and 2014 to become the 3rd largest
Slide 12: The India model is unique
Slide 13: Drivers of growth India ■ Domestic East and S.E. Asia ■ Exports
Slide 14: Drivers of growth India ■ Domestic ■ Services East and S.E. Asia ■ Exports ■ Manufacturing
Slide 15: Drivers of growth India ■ Domestic ■ Services ■ Consumption East and S.E. Asia ■ Exports ■ Manufacturing ■ Investment
Slide 16: Drivers of growth India ■ Domestic ■ Services ■ Consumption ■ High tech, capital intensive industry East and S.E. Asia ■ Exports ■ Manufacturing ■ Investment ■ Low tech, labour intensive industry
Slide 17: Implications of India model ‘Domestically led’ means: ■ Insulation from global downturns ■ Less volatility ■ We will come out of the global crisis faster
Slide 18: Implication of India model ‘Services led’ raises uncomfortable questions: ■ Have we skipped the industrial revolution? ■ How do we take people from farms to cities? ■ Will SEZ’s be our tipping point?
Slide 19: Implication of India model – Consumption led People Friendly: Consumption as % of GDP People Friendly, Less inequality: Gini Index 33% India 42% 64% India China Europe 59% 41% 45% China U.S. Brazil 58% Will India become the next big consuming economy after the U.S.?
Slide 20: Reasons for success India’s success is market-led whereas China’s is state induced The entrepreneur is at the centre of the Indian model
Slide 21: Rise of globally competitive Indian companies
Slide 22: India has a vibrant private space ■ 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn
Slide 23: India has a vibrant private space ■ 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn ■ 1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment
Slide 24: India has a vibrant private space ■ 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn ■ 1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment ■ 125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India
Slide 25: India has a vibrant private space ■ 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn ■ 1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment ■ 125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India ■ 390 Fortune 500 companies have outsourced software development to India
Slide 26: India has a vibrant private space ■ 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn ■ 1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment ■ 125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India ■ 390 Fortune 500 companies have outsourced software development to India ■ 2% bad loans in Indian banks (v~20% in China)
Slide 27: India has a vibrant private space ■ 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn ■ 1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment ■ 125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India ■ 390 Fortune 500 companies have outsourced software development to India ■ 2% bad loans in Indian banks (v~20% in China) ■ 80% credit goes to private sector (v~10% in China)
Slide 28: Public space is a problem We have ■ Dynamic democracy with honest elections ■ Free, lively media and press But we also have Poor governance!
Slide 29: Governance Failures  Not the minister caught with a bribe  1 out of 4 school teachers absent in government schools  2 out of 5 doctors absent in primary health centers  Delhi’s water  Land titles  Etc
Slide 30: Ironically, we used to have world class institutions from 1950-1980, but our problem was growth. Now we have growth, but our institutions are failing ■ Bureaucracy ■ Judiciary ■ Police
Slide 31: The economy grows at night when the government is asleep
Slide 33: Key reforms ■ Opened economy to trade and investment ■ Dismantled controls ■ Lowered tariffs ■ Dropped tax rates ■ Broke public sector monopolies
Slide 34: Understanding India’s economic success  Remarkable --every government has reformed (slowly) since 1991  Even slow reforms add up  65 countries have done the same reforms – why did India become the second fastest in the world?  Unappreciated fact – rule of law
Slide 35: “By 2010 India will have world’s largest number of English speakers” “When 300 million Indians speak a word in a certain way, that will be the way to speak it.” Professor David Crystal Cambridge Encyclopedia of the English Language
Slide 36: Understanding India’s economic success ■ Mental revolution among the young ■ ‘I want to be Bilgay’ ■ Raju’s secret of success ■ Banianisation of society ■ 180 TV channels; 65 news channels ■ The rise of Hinglish
Slide 37: Where are we today?  Growth fell to 6.7% in 08-09; 7% in 09-10  Pain has been less than in China  Competitive companies have recovered faster.  Risk of protectionism has receded  Recovery has been ahead of the world
Slide 38: Where are we going? ■ Base case post recovery is 7.5 % – 8.5 % GDP growth ■ Democracy will not permit more than 8% unless you have a Thatcher ■ 1.5% population growth ■ Demographic dividend – growth will continue beyond China’s
Slide 39: Per capita income ($000) 40 30 20 10 2,100 0 2000 2005 2020 2040 2066 5,800 3,050 16,800 On a ppp basis 37,000
Slide 40: Convergence in the 21st century ■ Why convergence is intuitive? ■ Convergence didn’t happen in the 20th century because the world was closed ■ Returning to a world of equality prior to 1750 ■ When China and India accounted for 45% of world GDP
Slide 41: India will gradually turn middle-class West of the KanpurChennai line East of the KanpurChennai line 50% 32% 22% 50% Kanpur- Chennai 8% 1980 2000 2010 2020 2040
Slide 42: What could stop the show? - Infrastructure - Improving via public-private parterships - Fiscal Deficit - Governance None of these stopped the show in the past 25 years - Nuclear War?
Slide 43: Education System Is reasonably good for the top 20% But it is abysmal for the rest ■ 1 in 4 teachers is absent in government primary schools ■ Hence, 54% of children in urban India are in private schools Solution: Education Vouchers
Slide 44: Caste system ■ Origin of India’s caste system ■ Classical four castes vs 3000 jatis ■ Hostage to competitive politics ■ Source of competitive advantage ■ Affirmative action
Slide 45: Role of Religion India’s pluralism, diversity and tolerance 2% 1% 12% Hinduism ■ Spiritual entrepreneurialism: Gurus ■ No hierarchy: Every Brahmin thinks he is the Pope ■ 300 million gods: Lack of theological narcissism 85% ■ Nasadiya Temper Hindu Muslim Sikh Christian
Slide 46: Elephant and not Tiger ■ India got democracy before capitalism and this has made all the difference ■ It is slower than China but its path is surer ■ However, an elephant at 8% growth is a formidable beast ■ We have waited 3000 years for this moment ■ India is more likely to preserve its way of life
Slide 47: The Wise Elephant

   
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