Slide 1: Development Seminar Series Workshop 4: Homebuyer Budget & Finance
Monte Franke Franke Consulting Group under contract to NY DHCR/HTFC
Slide 2: Franke Consulting Group
Overview of the Seminar Series
6 workshops:
Introduction to Development – May Project Selection – June Project Design – July Project Finance Project Implementation – October Ongoing Management & Org Survival - November
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Slide 3: Franke Consulting Group
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Slide 4: Franke Consulting Group
LPA Mini-Series
Working with Homebuyers - June Lead Based Paint Overview – July/August Managing Housing Rehab Programs - October
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Slide 5: Franke Consulting Group
Materials
Reference manual
Supplemental discussions of institute topics For review outside of class Overheads for note-taking Tools for project planning
Each seminar, add:
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Slide 6: Franke Consulting Group
Seminar 4 Topics
Project budgeting Project financing Homebuyer financing Subsidizing the buyer
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Slide 7: Homebuyer Project Budgets
Slide 8: Franke Consulting Group
The Development Budget
2 phases: Part I: Development
Construction loans used to build/rehab Costs deferred to sale: sales costs, dev fees, other
Part II: Sales
Proceeds pay:
Sales/ closing costs Private and public construction loans Developer fee
Excess proceeds: profit, subsidy repayment
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Slide 9: Franke Consulting Group
Homebuyer Dev. Budgets
Development: Sources:
Equity Construction loan Public capital advances
Sales: Sources:
Buyer $: DP+1st Mortgage Minus: sales costs Minus: constr. loan payoff
Uses:
Acquisition/site Construction (hard costs) Soft Costs
Net Proceeds:
Developer fee Public loan payoff *
Profit/Loss
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Slide 10: Franke Consulting Group
Development Budget Analysis
Acquisition Construction/Rehab Soft costs Fees
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Slide 11: Franke Consulting Group
Cost Analysis Principles
Principles
Eligible (allocable) Necessary Reasonable Documentable
Pre-award costs: & would have been allowable if incurred after award (2 CFR 225 Att B; Item 31 – old OMB A-87)
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Slide 12: Franke Consulting Group
Acquisition Cost
Acquisition cost < fair market value True acquisition cost: costs to make “shovel ready”
Price + infrastructure + site improvements + env remediation + demolition + relocation
Location: if unsuitable for market housing…
Environmental & neighborhood conditions inaccessibility to services and transportation
Related party transactions – cost reasonableness
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Slide 13: Franke Consulting Group
Construction Costs
Basis of bid/estimate, level of detail Reasonableness: critical if not competitively bid Regulatory compliance:
Program property standards: 504/FHAA; Davis-Bacon; LBP
Adequacy of scope v. sustainability
Compliance period v. useful life of systems/structure Cost of improvements v. energy/maintenance costs Market competitiveness (level of finish)
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Contingency
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Slide 14: Franke Consulting Group
Soft Costs
Typical soft costs
Acquisition: transaction costs Financing costs Interim holding: insurance, taxes, security, mgt, etc. Buyer intake, counseling Marketing & sales
Analysis
Completeness: all costs Reasonableness: typically 20 – 30 % of budget Timing of expenditures
Constr. financing or out of sales proceeds
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Slide 15: Franke Consulting Group
Fee Analysis
What’s a developer fee cover?
Inclusive of consultant fees Level of effort of developer Economy of scale: level of effort is not proportionate Smaller v. large projects; complex v. simpler projects Builder OHPGR; other fees to developer/related parties
Sliding scale of fees
Identity of interest: developer/builder/other
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Tie draws to milestones & accomplishments
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Slide 16: Project Finance
Slide 17: Franke Consulting Group
Sources & Gap Issues
Development financing:
Phasing of construction Costs deferred to sales phase Analysis of net proceeds
Gap analysis – two parts:
Determining gap funds needed for development Estimating buyer subsidy need
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Slide 18: Franke Consulting Group
Phased Development Budgets
Matrix budget: costs distributed by phases
Construction costs based on number of units in phase Costs front-end loaded: e.g., acquisition, infrastructure, design costs, approvals, constr financing costs Sales costs & perhaps partial fees paid Constr. line of credit may be paid down between phases Ph. 1 budget + Overlaps (next phase uses prior to sales proceeds) + Shortfalls in net proceeds (phase to phase dev subsidy)
Net sales proceeds rolled into next phase
Construction line of credit needed =
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Slide 19: Franke Consulting Group
Costs Deferred to Sales Phase?
Some marketing costs Counseling costs Sales costs Closing costs Portion of developer fee
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Slide 20: Franke Consulting Group
Stages of Project Financing
Pre-development financing Acquisition/construction financing Buyer financing – the sales phase
Gap analysis
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Slide 21: Franke Consulting Group
Homebuyer Project Example
$1,200,000
HOME Buyer Subsidy Buyer Downpayment Buyer 1st Mortgage HOME rehabilitation Conv Acquisition HOME Acquisition HOME Pre-Dev Loan Developer Capital Advances
$1,000,000
$800,000
$600,000
$400,000
$200,000
$0 Pre-Dev
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Acquisition
Rehabilitation
Sale
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Pre-Development Funding
Pre-development Uses Pre-development Sources Site control Equity/capital advances Prel design/engineering Pre-development loans Environmental assessment Legal
Usually
repayable (sometimes forgivable)
Rolled into construction loans
May
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need environmental clearance
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Slide 23: Franke Consulting Group
Acquisition Loans
Developers may self-fund or take interim loan Interim financing:
Conventional loans: usually not more than 50% LTV May be rolled into construction loan (if acquisition coordinated with construction start)
Public loans for acquisition:
CDBG HOME - requires development plan (expected to begin construction within 12 mos.) If Federal, contingent on environmental review *
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Slide 24: Franke Consulting Group
Construction Financing
Pays for construction costs till perm closing Often 80 - 90% of TDC (incl acquisition)
Some costs deferred to permanent closing: perm fin costs, partial dev fee & some working capital items
May be a package deal
Construction to homebuyer loans Or a buy-sell agreement between lenders
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Slide 25: Franke Consulting Group
Construction Financing
Construction uses TDC minus:
Dev fee (portion) Sales/closing/legal costs Some marketing costs
Construction sources Equity Construction loans Public gap sources?
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Slide 26: Franke Consulting Group
Construction Lenders
Public agency construction-period lending
Requires underwriting & construction inspections May opt for private lender to administer loan May advance funds during construction as part of perm.
Conventional lenders
Like to do constr lending: short-term, high interest rate Underwriting & management structure in place Risk mgt: bonding, insurance, letters of credit/ guarantees, structured draws & retainage, take-out loans
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Slide 27: Franke Consulting Group
Permanent Financing
Buyer financing (1st mortgage) & downpayments
And rollover of HOME (and other subsidies into buyer subsidy mortgage – and HOME Development Subsidy if applicable)
Takes out construction loans & pays for other development costs incurred at permanent closing
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Slide 28: Franke Consulting Group
Layering
HOME + 1 public source: 92.250 (CPD-98-01):
PJ must adopt guidelines Cost analysis Fee analysis (reasonable; identity of interest) Source analysis (adequate, not excessive funding)
Elements of layering analysis for homebuyer
Also final accounting of HOME funds
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Slide 29: Homebuyer Financing
Slide 30: Franke Consulting Group
The End Borrowers
Homebuyers are the ultimate borrowers Can’t underwrite at project application stage:
If individual borrowers are not known Don’t need to underwrite for repayment
Subsidy loans probably not be amortized
However, still need to do analysis:
Ensure optimal 1st mortgage Understand long-term affordability & default risk
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Slide 31: Franke Consulting Group
Credit: The Primary Issue!
Poor credit is the leading factor in the rejection of mortgage applications
Affects all income and racial groups BUT
Minority & immigrant borrowers are more likely than white borrowers to experience credit problems
But 2/3 of HH growth in the next decade
Let’s talk about the 4 C’s in reference to buyers
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Slide 32: Franke Consulting Group
Layering of Risk
Why automated underwriting is better
Objectivity Synergy of risk factors Multiple small problems tend to be deceptive (appear to be insignificant) May overwhelm borrower
Layering: the interaction of many small risk factors
Pay attention to market & borrower risks as well as project risks, and consider interaction of risk factors
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Capacity
Can the homebuyer repay the debt? Ratio Analysis
Housing expense to income ratio – front ratio Total debt to income ratio – back ratio Back end more important: increasing debt load of HHs
Freddie Mac does not consider front ratio
Ratio concerns:
High ratios, especially with adjustable mortgages
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Growth in Consumer Debt
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Slide 35: Franke Consulting Group
Cash (Capital)
Does the homebuyer have sufficient cash for down payment and closing costs?
No longer the major barrier due to high LTV loans But DP + Closing Costs can drain all cash
Analyze:
Total buyer funds required for DP and closing costs Standards for reserves/liquidity after closing Level of improvements; likelihood of early capital needs
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Slide 36: Franke Consulting Group
Q
Financing the Mortgage
According to 2005 NAR survey, what percentage of the first-time buyers bought with no money down?
A
1) 2) 3) 4)
72% 56% 42% 27%
25% of all buyers financed 100 percent of the purchase price
*This Survey covered people who bought homes from August 2004 – July 2005. 9/08 DHCR/HTFC Development Seminar Series
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Slide 37: Franke Consulting Group
Collateral
Will the lender(s) have adequate security?
Likelihood of recovery in event of foreclosure Higher owner equity reduces risk of default
Value v. cost
Look at appraisal (1st mortgage likely required) TLTV: Risk increased if TLTV > 100% Even if “Development Subsidy”
Loss of public funds & intended use
Mortgage insurance unlikely to protect subsidy liens
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Slide 38: Franke Consulting Group
Default Risk Highest at High LTV
Loan Performance 3/06
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Slide 39: Franke Consulting Group
Credit History
Will the homebuyer repay the debt? Past performance is the best predictor
1st time buyers don’t have prior history Enables automated approvals, but some LI buyers won’t qualify Identified loan programs that will work with lower scores and non-traditional credit? Provided adequate lead outreach, education, counseling?
Credit reports are major source of information
Has the developer
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Slide 40: Franke Consulting Group
Delinquency Rates by Loan Type
Joint Economic Committee
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Slide 41: Franke Consulting Group
Credit Scores
Statistical method of predicting likelihood of repayment
Only one of several pieces of information lenders use
FICO score v. new VantageScore Credit scores based on (in order of importance in FICO):
Late payments, delinquencies, bankruptcies (35%) Outstanding debt (30%) Length of credit history (15%) New applications/inquiries for credit (15%) Types of credit in use (10%)
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Slide 42: Franke Consulting Group
Review Your Borrower Standards
Counseling requirements Downpayment Underwriting ratios/metrics Standards for 1st mortgages Sustainability Structuring the subsidy Resubordination policy Legal documents
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Slide 43: Franke Consulting Group
Underwriting Ratios & Metrics
Loan-to-Value (LTV)
1st lender’s LTV (affects PMI) TLTV (affects your collateral risk) Should you go above 25-28%? And how about a minimum?
Front-end ratio (PITI):
Back-end ratio: probably the limiting factor Loan types: allow anything other than FRMs?
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Slide 44: Franke Consulting Group
Sustainability Risk
Can homebuyers can sustain ownership over compliance period/loan term?
Ability to manage mortgage/financial obligations Energy efficiency: control utility costs Ability to maintain: quality/useful life of structure, systems & finishes Market viability: ability to sell & recover funds
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Slide 45: Franke Consulting Group
The Effect of Counseling
The higher the “touch”, the greater the impact.
40
30
34% 26% 21%
Reduction in Delinquency Rate (%)
20 10 0
Individualized
Classroom
Home Study
Type of Counseling/Education Type of Counseling/Education
Source: A Little Knowledge Is a Good Thing: Empirical Evidence of the Effectiveness of Pre-Purchase Homeownership Counseling, Freddie Mac, 2001. 9/08 DHCR/HTFC Development Seminar Series 45
Slide 46: Franke Consulting Group
Q
Awareness of mortgage type
According to a 2007 Gfk Roper survey, what % of owners don’t know what type of mortgage they have?
A
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Slide 47: Franke Consulting Group
Delinquent Owners Contact Lenders?
Delinquent owners: 25% claimed not contacted by lender; 31% never contacted lender; 11% claimed no problem
Don't need to/ No reason to Can take care of situation without involving them There’s nothing they can do Don’t have money to pay it now Never had difficulty paying mortgage
Source: Telephone survey in 8/05 by Roper for Freddie Mac. Respondents were considered to be in default if they were more than one month late on their mortgage payment.
20%
17 8 7 6 6 5 5 12 0% 20% 40%
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Embarrassed Didn’t know who to call Scared Don’t know/Refuse
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Awareness of Options
% Aware % Likely (Aided) to Use
Talking to a housing counseling agency A forbearance agreement Adding missed payments to the existing loan balance Changing the interest rate on the mortgage loan Extending number of years you have to repay A repayment plan
Knowledge Gap 38 34 18 17 13 7 3 -6
Low awareness; High interest
36 36 54 58 53
74 70 72 75 66
Moderate awareness; Moderate/high interest
60
61 74 43
67
64 68 26
Making an adjustable-rate mortgage into a fixed-rate Paying mortgage company lump sum you are behind An assumption of the mortgage
A deed-in-lieu of foreclosure
High awareness; Moderate interest Low awareness; Low interest
-17
-18
41
23
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Source: Telephone survey conducted in 2005 by Roper Public Affairs and Media for Freddie Mac
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Slide 49: Franke Consulting Group
Summary: Borrower Financing
Assess your program design for:
Marketing: lead time for buyers to improve credit & save for downpayment Quality of counseling Special lending programs & flexible lending criteria Fixed rate loans & underwriting metrics Level of improvements & long-term operating costs Post-purchase assistance
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Slide 50: Subsidizing Buyers
Slide 51: Franke Consulting Group
Extra Risks in the Current Market
Home values extremely high…markets dropping
Many markets still considered over-valued; further declines? Price : income imbalance -- affordability problem Risky mortgage products that over-leveraged disappearing Investors have pulled out Building slowed, but inventory high (pipeline, investor dumping, foreclosures)
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Demand down
Excessive supply
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Why?
Strong national push into homeownership
Both as public policy and recognition of investment
Labor & materials up – national, international But run-up not explained by the usual supply & demand factors:
Household growth? 2 M production v. 1.4 M HHs /yr Housing shortage? Prices 51% up v rents 8% (2004)
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Slide 53: Franke Consulting Group
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Slide 54: Franke Consulting Group
291 of 330 metro markets showed decline in 4th Quarter 2007
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Slide 55: Franke Consulting Group
National City & Global Insight
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Slide 56: Franke Consulting Group
Over-Valued Housing Markets
National City & Global Insight, 4th Qtr 2007
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Slide 57: Franke Consulting Group
Affordability Improving…
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Slide 58: Franke Consulting Group
But Still Not Affordable to 1st Timers
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Slide 59: 20 00
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 200 400 600 800 0
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In thousands
Housing Permits for Single-family Units
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-J 20 an 00 20 Ju 01 l -J 20 an 01 20 Ju 02 l -J 20 an 02 20 Ju 03 l -J 20 an 03 20 Ju 04 l -J 20 an 04 20 Ju 05 l -J 20 an 05 20 Ju 06 l -J 20 an 06 20 Ju 07 l -J 20 an 07 20 Ju 08 l -J an
Franke Consulting Group
Slide 60: Franke Consulting Group
Existing Home Sales Inventory
5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
In Millions
Months
11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
• 10.3 months supply, 2nd highest since 1999.
20 Jan 00 20 - Ju 01 l 20 Jan 01 20 - Ju 02 l 20 Jan 02 20 - Ju 03 l 20 Jan 03 20 - Ju 04 l 20 Jan 04 20 - Ju 05 l 20 Jan 05 20 - Ju 06 l 20 Jan 06 20 - Ju 07 l 20 Jan 07 20 - Ju 08 l -J an
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Slide 61: Franke Consulting Group
Implications
Previously assisted buyers might be in troubled
Recent buyers might be over-leveraged & “upside down” ARM & high LTV mortgagors extremely vulnerable Lending products more limited & stricter Bottom line: “Can’t Pay, Can’t Refi, Can’t Sell”
New buyers might be buying in at the top Collateral damage: increasing foreclosures & job losses might hurt everyone
0.9% decline in value for foreclosed home w/in 1/8th mile
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Slide 62: Franke Consulting Group
What’s Going On In Your Market?
Price trends? Supply:demand balance? Affordability? Foreclosures?
What are the implications for your homebuyer programs/projects?
What happens if values decrease? What happens to new owners: building wealth or taking hostages? What are the risks of foreclosures & subsidy loss for existing owners?
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Implications for Homebuyer Projects
Current market information is essential
Watch trends: inventory, listing times, sales/listing price ratios
Declining prices & large public subsidies
What is the TLTV? If declines continue?
As mortgage products narrow and underwriting becomes more conservative, what is happening to buyer pipelines? How much equity do they have? How quickly might they be upside down? What mortgage factors put them at risk?
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Narrower affordable income band: smaller target pool
Risk of buying in at top or on downward trend
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Slide 64: Franke Consulting Group
HOME Resale: 92.254(a)(5)(i)
During min affordability period, resale at price:
Affordable to LI buyer Giving reasonable return to seller
New buyer must be LI Deed covenant/restriction running with land Required if no buyer subsidy over $1,000
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Slide 65: Franke Consulting Group
HOME Recapture: 92.254(a)(5)(ii)
Options:
Full recapture Declining balance recapture Shared net proceeds Owner investment returned first Other method approved by HUD
Note & mortgage required Recaptured $ repaid to City HOME account Resale/recapture option designed in ConPlan
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Slide 66: Franke Consulting Group
Trends in HOME Buyer Subsidies
Recapture method preferred (exc high cost areas)
Move away from declining balance toward full recapture Equity sharing in up markets (instead of resale method) Owner’s equity returned 1st in flat markets
Shift toward emphasis of program income
More extended local use periods (loan terms) After min compliance period, no repayment or recaptured funds, it’s all Program Income
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Slide 67: Franke Consulting Group
Development v. Buyer Subsidy
Development subsidy:
Development costs in excess of fair market value Forgiven after sale Amount that enabled homebuyer to buy the dwelling unit DPA or 2nd mortgage/gap funds HOME Mortgage = FMV – buyer funds (DP & 1st)
Buyer subsidy:
Applies only to recapture method
Buyer subsidy must be secured by note/mortgage If no buyer subsidy, resale method must be used
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Estimating Buyer Subsidy
Review expected 1st mortgage loan terms:
Reasonable terms given expected closing date Look at front-end/back-end ratios Look for predatory terms
Estimate the total gap amount:
High/low max mortgages (back-end ration) Compute average debt load (average other debt) Compute ave gap: FMV – average debt – buyer DP Average gap + 20% margin of error?
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Slide 69: Franke Consulting Group
Dev/Buyer Subsidy Example
Acquisition + Rehab/soft costs = $140,000 HOME funds provided nonprofit = $30,000 Market value after rehab/sale = $120,000 Buyer funds = $105,000 mortgage + $5,000 DP Devel. subsidy = $140,000 - $120,000 = $20,000 Buyer Subsidy = $120,000 - $110,000 = $10,000 Buyer’s HOME (2nd) note/mortgage = $10,000
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Slide 70: Franke Consulting Group
Developer Funds + DPA
Same project as before:
TDC = $140,000 FMV = $120,000 HOME $ to nonprofit developer = $30,000
But HOME DPA of $5,000 added:
Buyer funds = $105,000 (DP + 1st) HOME buyer subsidy = $10,000 + $5,000 = $15,000 Can be covered by one or two HOME notes/mortgages
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Slide 71: Franke Consulting Group
No Buyer Subsidy
Project facts:
TDC = $140,000 FMV = $110,000 HOME $ to nonprofit developer = $30,000 No DPA
House sold with resale restrictive covenant
$30,000 HOME note/mortgage for foreclosure/noncompliance
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Slide 72: Franke Consulting Group
Investment Terms
Designation of assisted units
Fixed/floating; VLI/LI; unit mix; rents Grants (recoverable) v. loans Beyond min compliance period Pre-development; development; permanent Amortization, cash flow loans, loan reviews Repayment in the event of default (foreclosure, non-compl)
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Amount & terms of investment
Timing of HOME investment
Repayment terms
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Legal Documents
Commitment letter
Terms of commitment & closing requirements/checklist Accepted commitment Rental: covenants; note/mortgage Homebuyer: resale covenants or recapture note/mortgage
Written agreement required for IDIS setup
Legal documents:
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Slide 74: Franke Consulting Group
Accounting for HOME $ @ Closing
Written off at sale (Recapture) or in Resale Covenant
Development Subsidy
Development assistance + buyer assistance at closing
CHDO Proceeds
Total HOME Investment
Buyer Subsidy
In CHDO Agreement & 1st reuse monitored
Report in IDIS; subject to recapture
Program Income
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Report in IDIS; returned
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Slide 75: Franke Consulting Group
Resubordination Policy
Resubordination:
Prepayment policy:
Refi with no takeout? Equity takeout for:
Home improvements? Economic emergency (e.g., job loss) Medical emergencies? Education? Other debt? Foreclosure prevention?
Will you prohibit? Will you require preprepayment counseling? Do you require full repayment if noncompliance
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Slide 76: Foreclosure Prevention & Intervention
Slide 77: Franke Consulting Group
Foreclosure Trends
foreclosures.com – foreclosure filings 50,000 (1.05%) of NY homes entered foreclosure in 2007
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Slide 78: Franke Consulting Group
Default Risk Highest at High LTV
Loan Performance 3/06
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Slide 79: Franke Consulting Group
Delinquency Rates by Loan Type
Joint Economic Committee
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Slide 80: Franke Consulting Group
Prevention v. Intervention
Prevention
Helping existing owner avoid foreclosure Counselor involvement Restructure public loan terms? Other subsidies; resubordinate HOME? Additional HOME funds not eligible
Intervention
Getting control of property or new buyer Repurchase rights Repurchase funds Entity to repurchase/convey Active buyer pool Additional HOME funds eligible (see next slide)
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Slide 81: Franke Consulting Group
Post-Purchase Counseling
A relationship…not just an event Require it? Pay for it?
HOME $ not eligible
Cover:
Things they forget/didn’t hear pre-purchase Managing/maintaining your home Avoiding predatory lending Responsible refinancing & resubordination Where to turn if you get into trouble
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Slide 82: Franke Consulting Group
HOME Foreclosure Intervention
11/22/04 rule
Recapture/repayment capped: net proceeds Additional investment:
To acquire/repair/resell properties; not for prevention
Add project $:
subject to max subsidy limits (cum) Admin funds may be borrowed (not subject to cap)
4/4/7 rule
Can use Admin $ to preserve affordable units
But not assist existing owner
Home $ to buy foreclosures/assist new buyer Amendment to existing project, not new project
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Slide 83: Franke Consulting Group
Repayment
Repayment: HOME $ must be repaid that did not meet statute (incl. foreclosure, DILOF) Amount subject to repayment
If resale, all HOME $ repaid If recapture, only balance of note/mortgage due
Foreclosure: Restrictions may terminate if foreclosure, transfer in lieu of foreclosure or FHA assignment
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Slide 84: Wrap Up & Evaluation
Slide 85: Franke Consulting Group
Questions to Take Away
Do you recognize/track what is happening to your housing & mortgage markets & buyers? 2. Do you need to change underwriting and loan terms to better protect the public investment? 3. Do you need to increase your post-purchase monitoring and support?
1.
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Slide 86: Franke Consulting Group
Final questions? Evaluation MLFranke@aol.com Tomorrow: Rental project budgets & finance
Next development seminar: 5. Project Implementation
Albany: 10/15 New York City: 10/16 Buffalo: 10/22 Syracuse: 10/23
Next in LPA series:
Managing Rehab Prgms
9/08 DHCR/HTFC Development Seminar Series
Saratoga 10/7 Rochester: 10/8 Poughkeepsie: 10/28
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