Slide 1: HOW ECONOMISTS VIEW THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
A Study Conducted for
SCOTT ADAMS, INC.
by
The OSR Group
September 2008
Slide 2: CONTENTS
• Research Objectives • Study Methodology • Demographics of the Respondents • Political Profile of the Respondents • Familiarity with the Candidates’ Economic Programs • Most Important Economic Issues • Which Candidate Would Do the Best with Each Issue
4 6 10 15 22 28 40
How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
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Slide 3: CONTENTS (continued)
• Overall Perspectives on the Candidates’ Economic Programs • Advice for the Candidates
60 80
• Summary of Key Findings • Appendix (More Details on the Methodology)
89 94
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Slide 4: RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
•
To understand which Presidential candidate – John McCain or Barack Obama -- is believed by U.S. economists to be best for the economy overall, over the long term. To evaluate which issues economists believe are most important, as they relate to the U.S. economy. To understand which candidate is expected to make the most progress dealing with the issues that economists see as most important.
•
•
How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
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Slide 5: RESEARCH OBJECTIVES (continued)
•
To assess which candidate is expected to do the best job with each of 20 potentially important economic issues. To understand what types of economic advice economists would offer to John McCain and to Barack Obama. To evaluate these and other issues by a selection of key demographics of U.S. economists.
•
•
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Slide 6: STUDY METHODOLOGY
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Slide 7: PROJECT OVERVIEW
• A total of 523 online interviews were conducted among economists who appear on the American Economic Association’s opt-in membership list. • E-mail invitations were sent to 6,514 people on a list of AEA members who have agreed to receive surveys and other e-mails from the Association. • The invitation to participate was sent on August 7, 2008. The survey was closed to additional responses on August 11, 2008.
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Slide 8: RESPONDENT SELECTION
•
To qualify for the survey, potential respondents had to meet two tests:
1. They had to confirm that they are members of the American Economic Association. 1. They had to be citizens of the United States.
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Slide 9: AN IMPORTANT NOTE
• The American Economic Association did not sponsor the survey, and is not responsible for the interpretation of the survey results. • Scott Adams, Inc., and The OSR Group, thank the AEA for providing their opt-in membership list to serve as the sample frame for this effort.
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Slide 10: DEMOGRAPHICS OF THE RESPONDENTS
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Slide 11: GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF THE ECONOMISTS
Midwest (24%) -- Illinois 7% -- Michigan 4%
West (16%) -- California 10%
Northeast (24%) -- New York 8% -- Pennsylvania 5%
South (33%) -- Virginia 7% -- Maryland 6%
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Slide 12: WORK/PROFESSION
Academia/Education Consulting Government The financial industry Other business/corporation/industry Editor/Columnist Think tank Other Retired/Not employed at present 5%
How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
65% 9% 9% 6% 6% 1% 1% 2%
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Slide 13: GENDER
• Eighty-six percent of the economists are male; 14% are female.
14%
Male (86%) Female (14%)
86%
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Slide 14: HOUSEHOLD INCOME
• Forty-three percent of the respondents had household incomes in 2007 of between $100,000 and $200,000. The median income was $154,700.
7% 14% 10% Less than $75,000 (7%) $75,000 - <$100,000 (14%) $100,000 - <$200,000 (43%) $200,000 - <$300,000 (15%) 15% $300,000 + (10%) Prefer not to say (11%) 43%
11%
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Slide 15: POLITICAL PROFILE OF THE RESPONDENTS
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Slide 16: PARTY IDENTIFICATION
• Almost half (48%) of the economists say they are registered Democrats. Only one in six (17%) are registered Republicans. Twenty-seven percent are registered as Independents.
3% Democrat (48%) Republican (17%) 27% 48% Independent (27%) Libertarian (3%) Other party (2%) Not registered (3%) 17%
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3%
2%
Slide 17: CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
• As of today, 66% of the economists say they would vote for Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate. Twenty-eight percent would vote for the Republican candidate, John McCain.
6%
28%
Barack Obama (66%) John McCain (28%) Someone else (6%) 66%
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Slide 18: CANDIDATE PREFERENCE: BY PARTY IDENTIFICATION
• Not surprisingly, Democrats favor Obama, and Republicans favor McCain (although 15% of the Republicans favor Obama). By 60-33%, the Independents favor Obama.
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
93% 78% 60%
Barack Obama
33% 15% 5%
John McCain
Democrat
Republican
Independent
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
Slide 19: CANDIDATE PREFERENCE: BY INCOME
• There are no statistically significant differences by income, although the economists who earn less than $100,000 are slightly less likely to favor Obama.
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
69% 61%
68%
28%
26%
29%
Barack Obama John McCain
<$100K
$100K - <$200K
$200K +
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
Slide 20: PROVIDING ECONOMIC ADVICE
• Fifteen percent of the economists say they have provided economic advice to one or more candidates – at a national, state, or local level – during the past year. Eighty-five percent have not done so.
15%
Yes/Have provided advice (15%) No/Have not provided advice (85%)
85%
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Slide 21: PROVIDING ADVICE: BY PARTY IDENTIFICATION
• Republican economists are more likely to have provided advice than are Democrats or Independents.
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
86% 78%
89%
Yes
20% 14% 9%
No
Democrat
Republican
Independent
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
Slide 22: FAMILIARITY WITH THE CANDIDATES’ ECONOMIC PROGRAMS
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Slide 23: FAMILIARITY WITH McCAIN’S ECONOMIC PROGRAM
• Twenty-seven percent of economists say they are “very familiar” with John McCain’s economic program. In total, 90% say they are at least “somewhat familiar” with this program.
9% 1% 27% Very familiar (27%) Somewhat familiar (63%) Not very familiar (9%) Not at all familiar (1%)
63%
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Slide 24: FAMILIARITY WITH McCAIN’S PROGRAM: BY CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
• Those who favor McCain are more likely to be at least “somewhat familiar” with McCain’s economic program.
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
69%
61%
Somewhat familiar Very familiar
25%
27%
Favor McCain
Favor Obama
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
Slide 25: FAMILIARITY WITH OBAMA’S ECONOMIC PROGRAM
• Three in ten economists say they are “very familiar” with Barack Obama’s economic program. In total, 91% say they are at least “somewhat familiar” with this program.
8% 1% 30% Very familiar (30%) Somewhat familiar (61%) Not very familiar (8%) Not at all familiar (1%)
61%
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Slide 26: FAMILIARITY WITH OBAMA’S PROGRAM: BY CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
• Those who favor Obama are slightly more likely to be “very familiar” with his economic program. When the “somewhat familiar“ people are included, there is no significant difference.
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
66%
59%
Somewhat familiar Very familiar
25%
31%
Favor McCain
Favor Obama
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
Slide 27: OVERALL FAMILIARITY WITH THE TWO PROGRAMS
• Overall, the economists are about equally familiar with the two programs.
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
63%
61%
Somewhat familiar Very familiar
27%
30%
McCain Program
Obama Program
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
Slide 28: MOST IMPORTANT ECONOMIC ISSUES
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Slide 29: HOW THE QUESTION WAS ASKED
• The respondents were shown a list of 20 issues and asked to rate the importance of each. The question was worded as follows:
– “Here are some issues that some people have said are important to the U.S. economy. Please rate your own view of the importance of each issue, as it relates to the U.S. economy. Use a scale of 110, where “10” means this issue is absolutely critical to the economy, and “1” means it is not important to the economy.
•
The order of presentation of the 20 items was randomized, to reduce bias. The items appear on the next two pages.
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Slide 30: THE 20 ISSUES
• • • • • • • • International trade policy Encouraging technology and innovation The mortgage and housing crisis Providing tax relief for the middle class Reducing the Federal budget deficit Environmental protection, including reducing global warming Education Energy policy, including developing alternative sources of energy • Eliminating the estate tax • Increasing the proportion of taxes paid by the wealthiest Americans
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Slide 31: THE 20 ISSUES (continued)
• • • • • • • • • • Immigration policy Reforming bankruptcy laws Extending unemployment insurance Raising the minimum wage and indexing it to inflation Reducing the capital gains tax Extending and strengthening the Unemployment Insurance system Fixing the Social Security system Health care policy Reducing waste in government Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and homeland security
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Slide 32: THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES (based on % of 8-10 ratings)
• The top four issues – education, health care, international trade, and energy – are each rated at least “8” in importance by 60% or more.
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
71%
67%
62%
60%
Education
Health care
International trade
Energy
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Slide 33: THE NEXT SET OF ISSUES (based on % of 8-10 ratings)
• The next three issues are each rated at least “8” in importance by 50% or more.
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
58%
58%
52%
Encouraging technology and innovation
Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and homeland security
Mortgage and housing crisis
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Slide 34: THE THIRD SET OF ISSUES (based on % of 8-10 ratings)
• The next set of issues are each rated at least “8” in importance by 30% or more of the economists.
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
49%
45%
39%
37%
Social Security
EnvironReducing the mental policy deficit
Immigration
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Slide 35: THE FOURTH SET OF ISSUES (based on % of 8-10 ratings)
• The next two issues are each rated at least “8” in importance by 20% or more.
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
29%
28%
Increasing the proportion of taxes paid by the wealthiest Americans
Reducing waste in government
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Slide 36: THE REST OF THE LIST (based on % of 8-10 ratings)
• The final seven issues are each rated at least “8” on the “1-10” importance scale by fewer than 20% of the economists:
– – – – Providing tax relief for the middle class (16%) Reducing the capital gains tax (15%) Extending unemployment insurance (14%) Extending and strengthening the Unemployment Insurance system (13%) – Raising the minimum wage and indexing it to inflation (13%) – Reforming bankruptcy laws (11%) – Eliminating the estate tax (9%)
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Slide 37: MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES: BY CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
For those who favor McCain • International trade (73%) • Education (64%) • Social Security (63%) • Technology and innovation (58%) • Iraq, Afghanistan, and homeland security (49%) • Reducing waste (46%) • Health care (45%) • Energy (42%) • Immigration (42%) For those who favor Obama • Health care (77%) • Education (74%) • Energy (70%) • Iraq, Afghanistan, homeland security (63%) • Environment (61%) • Mortgage and housing crisis (59%) • Technology and innovation (59%) • International trade (57%)
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
Slide 38: THE ISSUES WITH THE LARGEST PERCENTAGE DIFFERENCES
Favor McCain Reducing capital gains tax Reducing waste Eliminating estate tax Social Security Environment Taxes paid by the wealthiest Health care Energy 39% 46% 23% 63% 12% 5% 45% 42% Favor Obama 4% 18% 3% 43% 61% 40% 77% 70%
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
Slide 39: A NOTE ABOUT SUBGROUPS
• It is worth noting that those who favor Obama give higher percentage ratings [in other words, higher proportions rate the issue at least “8” in importance] for 14 of the 20 issues. • It is also worth noting that those who claim to be most familiar with the two candidates’ economic plans are most likely to choose higher percentage ratings.
– Those who say they are “very familiar” with McCain’s program choose higher percentages for 14 issues than do those who are less familiar. – Those who say they are “very familiar” with Obama’s program choose higher percentages for 16 issues than do those who are less familiar.
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Slide 40: WHICH CANDIDATE WOULD DO THE BEST WITH EACH ISSUE
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Slide 41: HOW THE QUESTION WAS ASKED
• After they rated the importance of each of the 20 issues, the respondents were asked to note which candidate would do the best job with each issue. The question was worded as follows:
– “Here is the list of issues once again. Now please note which of the two Presidential candidates you believe would do the best job with each of these issues. Please use the scale you see below for your ratings. – “If you wish, you may refer to the candidates’ Web pages to review their proposed policies, but you do not need to do this. The following links will get you to the economic policy pages at each candidate’s Web site: – “John McCain: http://www.johnmccain.com/Issues/jobsforamerica/ – “Barack Obama http://origin:barackobama.com/issues/economy/”
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Slide 42: HOW THE QUESTION WAS ASKED (continued)
• For this question, the economists used a 7-point scale, with McCain at 1, “no difference” at 4, and Obama at 7. Therefore, any response of 1-3 meant that McCain would do the best job with that issue, and any response of 5-7 meant Obama would do the best job with that issue. • As was true earlier, the order of presentation of the 20 items was randomized, to reduce bias.
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Slide 43: McCAIN’S STRONGEST ISSUES (% who say he would do the best job)
Reducing the capital gains tax Eliminating the estate tax International trade policy Reducing waste in government Iraq, Afghanistan, and homeland security Immigration policy Reducing the deficit
How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
72% 63% 51% 38% 30% 29% 29%
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Slide 44: OBAMA’S STRONGEST ISSUES (% who say he would do the best job)
Taxes paid by the wealthiest Environmental protection Raising the minimum wage Extending unemployment insurance Health care Unemployment Insurance system Energy Education Iraq, Afghanistan, and homeland security
How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
79% 72% 70% 68% 65% 65% 61% 59% 58%
44
Slide 45: HOW THE CANDIDATES COMPARE ON THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES
• The charts on the next seven pages compare the candidates on all 20 issues, in order of the importance of these issues. For each issue, the charts show the percentage who say McCain would be best, the percentage who say Obama would be best, and the percentage who say there would be no difference between the candidates. • In total, Obama rates higher than McCain on 16 of the 20 issues; McCain rates higher than Obama on four issues. • Among the most important issues, Obama rates higher on 11 of the top 12.
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Slide 46: COMPARISONS ON THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES
• Obama is the overwhelming choice for the two most important issues – education and health care. McCain is the clear choice for the third issue – international trade.
120% 100% 80% 60% 40%
14% 27%
20% 15% 51%
McCain No difference
59%
20% 0%
65%
23%
Obama
26%
Education
Health care
International trade
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
Slide 47: COMPARISONS ON THE NEXT MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES
• Obama is strongly preferred on each of the next three issues.
120% 100%
22%
80%
23%
30% 11%
McCain No difference
17%
60% 40%
34%
61%
20% 0%
43%
58%
Obama
Energy
Tech./Innovation
Wars/Security
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
Slide 48: COMPARISONS ON THE THIRD SET OF ISSUES
• Obama is also the clear choice for the next three issues. The difference is particularly striking for environmental protection.
120% 100%
18%
80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
9%
24%
19%
McCain No difference
41%
35% 72%
Obama
41%
40%
Mortgage/Housing
Social Security
Environment
48
How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
Slide 49: COMPARISONS ON THE FOURTH SET OF ISSUES
• Obama is also preferred for these next three issues, and especially for increasing the proportion of taxes paid by the wealthiest Americans. Note that Obama is seen as the best choice (by 37-29%) for reducing the Federal budget deficit.
120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
29%
29%
14%
7%
33%
38% 79%
McCain No difference Obama
37%
33%
Deficit
Immigration
Taxes paid by the wealthiest
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
Slide 50: COMPARISONS ON THE FIFTH SET OF ISSUES
• On two of these three issues – the 13th and 15th most important – McCain is seen as the better choice. Obama is best for providing tax relief to the middle class.
120% 100%
19%
80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
38% 26% 46% 55% 16% 11% 17% 72%
McCain No difference Obama
Reducing waste
Middle class tax relief
Reducing capital gains tax
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
Slide 51: COMPARISONS ON THE SIXTH SET OF ISSUES
• Obama is the overwhelming choice for all three of these relatively unimportant issues.
120% 100% 80% 60%
10% 21%
10% 25%
16% 14%
McCain
40% 20% 0%
68%
65%
70%
No difference Obama
Extending unemployment insurance
Strengthening Unemployment Ins. System
Raising minimum wage
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Slide 52: COMPARISONS ON THE LEAST IMPORTANT ISSUES
• Obama is the choice for reforming bankruptcy laws. McCain is clearly preferred for eliminating the estate tax.
120% 100%
20%
80%
63%
60% 40%
49%
McCain No difference
17%
20% 0%
Obama
31%
20%
Reforming bankruptcy laws
Eliminating the estate tax
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
Slide 53: DEFECTIONS ON THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES
• The next six pages show how opinions about who would be best for the six most important issues vary by candidate preference and by party identification. In other words, to what extent do those who support McCain overall defect to Obama for particular issues, and to what extent do those who support Obama overall defect to McCain. • Similarly, to what extent do Democrats and Republicans cross party lines on the most important economic issues. The views of Independents on each issue are also shown.
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Slide 54: WHO WOULD BE BEST AT EDUCATION: BY KEY SUBGROUPS
• For the most important issue – education -- McCain supporters believe McCain would do the best job on this issue, but by a smaller margin than the one by which Obama supporters choose Obama. The same is true for Democrats and Republicans. Independents believe Obama would do the best job on education.
– McCain supporters (Obama 16%; McCain 41%) – Obama supporters (Obama 81%; McCain 2%) – Democrats (Obama 82%; McCain 2%) – Republicans (Obama 19%; McCain 41%) – Independents (Obama 50%; McCain 18%)
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Slide 55: WHO WOULD BE BEST AT HEALTH CARE: BY KEY SUBGROUPS
• For the second most important issue – health care – the same pattern holds. McCain supporters believe McCain would do the best job on this issue, but by a smaller margin than the one by which Obama supporters choose Obama. The same is true, once again, for Democrats and Republicans. Independents believe Obama would do the best job on health care.
– McCain supporters (Obama 20%; McCain 59%) – Obama supporters (Obama 88%; McCain 2%) – Democrats (Obama 89%; McCain 4%) – Republicans (Obama 24%; McCain 58%) – Independents (Obama 56%; McCain 25%)
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Slide 56: WHO WOULD BE BEST AT INTERNATIONAL TRADE: BY KEY SUBGROUPS
• For the next issue – international trade – Obama supporters are just as likely to pick McCain as they are to pick their own candidate. McCain’s international trade policy also picks up significant support from Democrats and from Independents.
– McCain supporters (Obama 3%; McCain 86%) – Obama supporters (Obama 37%; McCain 37%) – Democrats (Obama 42%; McCain 34%) – Republicans (Obama 5%; McCain 82%) – Independents (Obama 16%; McCain 63%)
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Slide 57: WHO WOULD BE BEST AT ENERGY: BY KEY SUBGROUPS
• For the next issue – energy policy – the pattern is the same as for the first two issues. Obama does better among McCain supporters than McCain does among Obama supporters. Independents think Obama would do the best job on energy.
– McCain supporters (Obama 14%; McCain 63%) – Obama supporters (Obama 84%; McCain 4%) – Democrats (Obama 86%; McCain 4%) – Republicans (Obama 18%; McCain 65%) – Independents (Obama 50%; McCain 26%)
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Slide 58: WHO WOULD BE BEST AT TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION: BY KEY SUBGROUPS
• For encouraging technology and innovation, there are more respondents in the “No difference” category than for some other issues. Among those who do pick a candidate, the McCain margin among his supporters is again smaller than Obama’s margin among his. Independents favor Obama, but by a smaller margin than for some issues.
– McCain supporters (Obama 9%; McCain 58%) – Obama supporters (Obama 60%; McCain 7%) – Democrats (Obama 61%; McCain 8%) – Republicans (Obama 11%; McCain 57%) – Independents (Obama 38%; McCain 27%)
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Slide 59: WHO WOULD BE BEST AT IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN, AND HOMELAND SECURITY: BY KEY SUBGROUPS
• On this issue, McCain supporters believe McCain would do the best, and Obama supporters believe Obama would do the best. The fact that there are more Obama supporters overall explains why this issue is in the Obama column. Independents favor Obama.
– McCain supporters (Obama 10%; McCain 81%) – Obama supporters (Obama 81%; McCain 10%) – Democrats (Obama 81%; McCain 12%) – Republicans (Obama 16%; McCain 74%) – Independents (Obama 52%; McCain 37%)
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Slide 60: OVERALL PERSPECTIVES ON THE CANDIDATES’ ECONOMIC PROGRAMS
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Slide 61: MAKING THE MOST PROGRESS – HOW THE QUESTION WAS ASKED
• After the discussion of specific issues, the economists were asked which candidate would be best on the issues of importance. The question was worded as follows:
– “Overall, which candidate do you think would make the most progress on the issues you believe are most important to the economy overall?”
• Once again, the respondents were asked to use a 7-point scale, with McCain at 1, “no difference” at 4, and Obama at 7. Therefore, any response of 1-3 meant that McCain would make the most progress, and any response of 5-7 meant Obama would make the most.
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Slide 62: WHO WOULD MAKE THE MOST PROGRESS
• Overall, 60% of the economists say Barack Obama would make the most progress on important economic issues. Thirty-two percent pick John McCain.
32% Barack Obama (60%) No difference (8%) John McCain (32%) 60% 8%
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Slide 63: WHO WOULD MAKE THE MOST PROGRESS: BY PARTY IDENTIFICATION
• Democrats choose Obama by a large margin, and Republicans choose McCain. Independents pick Obama, by 49-37%.
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
90%
86%
49% 37%
Barack Obama John McCain
8%
10%
Democrat
Republican
Independent
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
Slide 64: WHO WOULD MAKE THE MOST PROGRESS: BY CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
• Not surprisingly, those who favor each candidate overall also believe that candidate would do best with the most important economic issues.
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
91%
90%
Barack Obama John McCain
1%
5%
Favor McCain
Favor Obama
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
Slide 65: WHO WOULD MAKE THE MOST PROGRESS: BY INCOME
• The middle group is slightly more likely to favor Obama. Otherwise, there are no significant differences by income.
70% 60% 50% 40%
65% 58% 58%
38% 31% 27%
Barack Obama John McCain
30% 20% 10% 0%
<$100K
$100K - <$200K
$200K +
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
Slide 66: WHO WOULD MAKE THE MOST PROGRESS: BY FAMILIARITY WITH McCAIN PROGRAM
• Those who are “very familiar” with the McCain economic program are about as likely to believe Obama would do the best job as are those who are less familiar with McCain’s program.
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
63%
60%
32%
32%
Barack Obama John McCain
Very familiar
Less familiar
66
How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
Slide 67: WHO WOULD MAKE THE MOST PROGRESS: BY FAMILIARITY WITH OBAMA PROGRAM
• Those who are “very familiar” with the Obama economic program are slightly more likely to believe Obama would do the best job than are those who are less familiar with Obama’s program.
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
65% 59%
30%
33%
Barack Obama John McCain
Very familiar
Less familiar
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
Slide 68: WHY SOME RESPONDENTS SELECTED McCAIN (open-ended question)
Prefer his economic policy Prefer his trade policy More likely to reduce government/Less regulation More experienced McCain understands economics Disagree with Obama’s policies Disagree with Obama’s trade policy
22% 12% 9% 7% 4% 17% 5%
How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
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Slide 69: WHY McCAIN – IN THE RESPONDENTS’ OWN WORDS
• “McCain could be less inclined to ‘make changes,’ which will be better for the economy. Obama will try to leave ‘his mark’ in the society, which is bad. Never underestimate a politician's capacity to screw up the economy.” • “Sen. McCain appears to favor a greater reliance on the market and less on taxation or regulation, which is an approach I favor.” • “In most cases, McCain favors doing the things like free trade that will most help the economy and opposes things like increasing and indexing the minimum wage which would hurt it.” • “Republicans are better for business and capitalism.” • “McCain understands that there is no free lunch. He will encourage private initiative and take more seriously our longterm fiscal crisis.”
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Slide 70: WHY SOME RESPONDENTS SELECTED OBAMA (open-ended question)
Prefer his economic policy Prefer his health care policy He is intelligent/educated Good advisors More likely to bring about change Agree with his values/positions Prefer his energy policy Disagree with McCain’s policies McCain wants to maintain Bush policies
How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
15% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 8% 6%
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Slide 71: WHY OBAMA – IN THE RESPONDENTS’ OWN WORDS
• “Only Obama is interested in taking economic issues seriously in general, and certainly only Obama is concerned with economic justice.” • “McCain virtually ignores all of the problems that I see as important to the economy.” • “McCain would simply continue the policies of Bush on the major issues. Obama would take steps to make the tax system more equitable, invest in America, and deal with key environmental issues.” • “I prefer his approach to health care/health insurance.” • “Obama will be more responsive to the need for new technology, new energy sources, new environmental protections, and less controlled by corporate interests.”
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Slide 72: WHY SOME RESPONDENTS SAY THERE IS NO DIFFERENCE (open-ended question)
Dislike both/It doesn’t matter A President has limited ability to affect the economy They have similar views
28% 15% 15%
How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
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Slide 73: BEST FOR THE LONG TERM – HOW THE QUESTION WAS ASKED
• The economists were also asked which candidate would be best for the economy, over the long term. The question was worded as follows:
– “Which candidate do you think would be best for the economy overall, over the long term?”
• As before, the respondents were asked to use a 7-point scale, with McCain at 1, “no difference” at 4, and Obama at 7. Therefore, any response of 1-3 meant that McCain would be best for the long term, and any response of 5-7 meant Obama would be best.
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Slide 74: WHO WOULD BE BEST FOR THE LONG TERM
• By almost exactly the same percentages as for the “make the most progress” question, 59% of the economists say Barack Obama would be best for the long term; 31% say John McCain would be best.
31% Barack Obama (59%) No difference (10%) 59% 10% John McCain (31%)
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Slide 75: BEST FOR THE LONG TERM: BY PARTY IDENTIFICATION
• Once again, Democrats choose Obama by a large margin, and Republicans choose McCain. Independents pick Obama, by 46-39%.
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
88% 80%
46%
39%
Barack Obama John McCain
7%
9%
Democrat
Republican
Independent
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How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
Slide 76: BEST FOR THE LONG TERM: BY CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
• As was true earlier, those who favor each candidate overall also believe that candidate would be best for the economy, over the long term.
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
90%
87%
Barack Obama John McCain
1%
5%
Favor McCain
Favor Obama
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Slide 77: BEST FOR THE LONG TERM: BY INCOME
• The middle group is slightly more likely to favor Obama. The highest income group is slightly more likely to prefer McCain than are the other groups.
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
58%
62% 57%
34% 29% 29%
Barack Obama John McCain
<$100K
$100K - <$200K
$200K +
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Slide 78: BEST FOR THE LONG TERM: BY FAMILIARITY WITH McCAIN PROGRAM
• Those who are “very familiar” with the McCain economic program are more likely to believe Obama would be best for the long term than are those who are less familiar with McCain’s program.
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
63% 57%
28%
32%
Barack Obama John McCain
Very familiar
Less familiar
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Slide 79: BEST FOR THE LONG TERM: BY FAMILIARITY WITH OBAMA PROGRAM
• Those who are “very familiar” with the Obama economic program are more likely to believe Obama would be best for the long term than are those who are less familiar with Obama’s program.
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
65% 56%
33% 27%
Barack Obama John McCain
Very familiar
Less familiar
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Slide 80: ADVICE FOR THE CANDIDATES
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Slide 81: ASKING FOR ADVICE
• Toward the end of the interview, the economists were asked to offer advice to the two candidates. The questions were asked in an open-ended way, so that the economists could respond in their own words. The two questions were worded as follows:
– “Let’s say John McCain’s campaign asked you to offer some economic advice. What 2 or 3 things would you suggest, from the perspective of an economist? Please be as specific as possible.” – “Let’s say Barack Obama’s campaign asked you to offer some economic advice. What 2 or 3 things would you suggest, from the perspective of an economist? Please be as specific as possible.”
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Slide 82: ADVICE FOR JOHN McCAIN (open-ended question)
Focus on specific policy areas (NET) -- Focus on health care -- Focus on energy policy -- Focus on education -- Focus on immigration -- Focus on the environment Taxes (NET) -- Raise taxes -- Cut taxes -- Don’t cut taxes
How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
44% 20% 17% 11% 8% 5% 38% 10% 8% 8%
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Slide 83: ADVICE FOR JOHN McCAIN (continued)
Taxes (NET) – continued -- Focus on tax reform -- Eliminate the Bush tax cuts -- Scrap the Gas Tax Holiday idea Finance (NET) -- Cut/control spending -- Cut the deficit -- Increase financial regulation -- Balance the budget
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7% 5% 4% 20% 7% 7% 5% 3%
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Slide 84: ADVICE FOR JOHN McCAIN (continued)
Support free trade Defense (NET) -- Get out of Iraq -- Reduce military spending Fix Social Security Don’t drill for oil Focus on smaller government/less regulation Reduce/Remove subsidies Invest in infrastructure
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13% 9% 7% 3% 8% 5% 4% 4% 3%
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Slide 85: ADVICE FOR BARACK OBAMA (open-ended question)
Focus on specific policy areas (NET) -- Focus on health care -- Focus on energy policy -- Focus on education -- Focus on immigration -- Focus on the environment Taxes (NET) -- Raise taxes -- Don’t raise taxes -- Cut taxes
How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
42% 24% 14% 13% 5% 3% 33% 8% 7% 6%
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Slide 86: ADVICE FOR BARACK OBAMA (continued)
Taxes (NET) – continued -- Focus on tax reform -- Don’t cut taxes -- Drop the windfall/excess profits tax Support free trade Finance (NET) -- Cut the deficit -- Cut/control spending -- Increase financial regulation -- Balance the budget
How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
6% 3% 3% 26% 20% 9% 5% 4% 4%
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Slide 87: ADVICE FOR BARACK OBAMA (continued)
Fix Social Security Focus on smaller government/less regulation Reduce/Remove subsidies Defense (NET) -- Get out of Iraq -- Reduce military spending Increase incentives Fix Medicare Invest in infrastructure
How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
8% 6% 6% 6% 4% 3% 5% 3% 3%
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Slide 88: A COMMENT ABOUT THE ADVICE
• Note that the categories of advice are the same for both candidates. The percentages change somewhat, when one candidate is perceived to need more advice in that area. For example, the percentage who tell Obama to support free trade is 26%; only 13% offer this advice to McCain. On the other side, 17% advise McCain to focus on energy policy, compared to 14% who give this advice to Obama. • Note also that the specific policy areas that generate the most advice – education, health care, international trade, and energy – are also the four areas that ranked as the most important issues, according to the economists.
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Slide 89: SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS
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Slide 90: SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS
1. By a margin of 60-32%, economists believe Barack Obama would be better than John McCain at making progress on the issues that are most important to the economy. (The remaining 8% see no difference between the candidates on this measure.) 1. By an almost identical margin (59-31%), economists think Obama would be best for the economy overall, over the long term. (Ten percent say there would be no difference between the candidates.) 1. If the election were held today, 66% of the economists would favor Obama and 28% would favor McCain. (Six percent would favor someone else.)
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Slide 91: SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS (continued)
1. Democrats make up 48% of the economists; only 17% say they are Republicans. About three in ten (28%) are Independents. The Democrats are especially likely to favor Obama, and to believe Obama would be best for the economy. Similarly, the Republicans favor McCain and believe McCain would be best for the economy. By 60-33%, the Independents favor Obama. 1. From a list of 20 issues, the economists rank education as most important to the U.S. economy (71% rate this issue either “8,” “9,” or “10” in importance, on a 10-point scale). The next most important issues are health care (67%), international trade (62%), and energy (60%). Following that are wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and homeland security (58%), and technology and innovation (also 58%).
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Slide 92: SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS (continued)
1. Obama is seen as most likely to do the best job on 16 of the 20 issues that were discussed. McCain rates higher than Obama on four issues. Among the issues seen as most important to the U.S. economy, Obama rates higher than McCain on 11 of the top 12. 1. The top issues for McCain are:
– Reducing the capital gains tax (72% say McCain would be better on this issue); – Eliminating the estate tax (63%); – International trade policy (51%); and – Reducing waste in government (38%).
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Slide 93: SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS (continued)
1. The top issues for Obama are:
– Increasing the proportion of taxes paid by the wealthiest Americans (79% say Obama would be better on this issue); – Environmental protection, including reducing global warming (72%); – Raising the minimum wage and indexing it to inflation (70%); and – Extending unemployment insurance (68%).
1. When asked to give advice to the candidates, the economists focus on the issues they had described as most important – education, health care, international trade, and energy.
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Slide 94: APPENDIX (MORE DETAILS ON THE METHODOLOGY)
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Slide 95: INTERVIEWING PROCEDURES
• The questionnaire for this study was developed by The OSR Group. The questionnaire was reviewed and revised by the Scott Adams, Inc., project team before interviewing began. • Answer categories were randomized, as appropriate, to remove bias in the ordering of the questions. • The respondents were told that Scott Adams, Inc., is sponsoring the study. All of the respondents were promised confidentiality for participating in the study.
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Slide 96: STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE
• All individuals on the AEA’s opt-in list were asked to participate in the survey. Therefore the respondents were not “sampled” in a statistical sense. Those who chose to participate were included among the respondents. • With that said, it is helpful to understand the rules for statistical significance that would apply to random samples of similar sizes, as a guideline in understanding the importance of differences among various subgroups of the data. • The maximum sampling tolerances that would apply to randomly selected samples of various sizes are shown on the next page. These figures represent the 95% confidence level, which is based on two standard deviations.
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Slide 97: MAXIMUM SAMPLING TOLERANCES
• The respondents in total (523 interviews) • Prefer McCain (146 interviews) • Prefer Obama (344 interviews) • Democrat (251 interviews) • Republican (88 interviews) • Independent (144 interviews) • Less than $100,000 income (108 interviews) • $100,000 - <$200,000 (226 interviews) • $200,000 or more (132 interviews)
How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008
+ + +
4% 8% 5%
+ 6% + 10% + 8% + + + 9% 7% 9%
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Slide 98: MAXIMUM SAMPLING TOLERANCES (continued)
• The sampling tolerances that apply to other subgroups of the data depend on the numbers of interviews in those subgroups:
Numbers of Interviews 400 200 150 100 50 Maximum Sampling Tolerance + 5% + 7% + 8% + 10% + 14%
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