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Slide 1: Renub Research www.renub.com Alzheimer’s Disease Patients & Market Worldwide, Future Scenario (2010 – 2015) & Drugs Analysis Publisher: Renub Research Published: June, 2011
Slide 2: Alzheimer’s Disease - Market Overview Alzheimer’s is a complex disease and there is no single “magic bullet” available in the market to prevent or cure it. Though many marketed drugs have been approved for Alzheimer’s disease, but it still remains a significant area of unmet medical need. Clinical success has proven elusive; however, numerous companies are developing novel treatments. Currently there’s no cure for Alzheimer’s and its still waiting for its key product. In addition, all current marketed products are going to be generic in the next five years. In 2010, there were more than 30 Million people suffering with Alzheimer’s disease but it is anticipated that by 2015 over 35 Million people worldwide will be suffering from this disease. Much of this increase will be due to increase in number of people with Alzheimer’s in low and middle income countries. Since the risk of getting the disease increases with age, the number of patients with the illness to be found in any community will depend on the proportion of older people in the group. Traditionally, the developed countries have large proportions of elderly people, and so they have many cases of Alzheimer’s disease in the community at one time. However, developing countries are also undergoing a demographic transition so that more and more persons are surviving to an old age. Global Alzheimer’s disease has increased manifold and expected to cross US$ 19 Billion by 2015. North America controls more than 50% of the total Alzheimer’s drug market share in 2010. Over the past years, the Alzheimer’s disease market has been flagged with several drugs into the market. Till last year Aricept was the world best selling drug which lost patent protection in November 2010, a milestone that will be followed by a rapid loss in sales. But there are other drugs which has the potential to become blockbuster drug by 2010. Namenda, Exelon has shown alluring growth in the market and become blockbusters in 2010. Ebixa a drug of Memantine group is expected to have a Billion dollar market by 2014. Given the alarming worldwide growth in Alzheimer’s patients, and especially if companies are able to address major unmet needs, the outlook for the Alzheimer’s disease market is excellent.
Slide 3: Report Details Renub Research report titled “Alzheimer’s Disease Patients & Market Worldwide, Future Scenario (2010 – 2015) & Drugs Analysis” studies the Alzheimer’s Disease patients prevalence worldwide and region wise. The report provides data on the Alzheimer’s Disease market Worldwide, North America, Europe and Rest of the world. Alzheimer’s drugs such as Exelon, Aricept, Namenda, Razadyne, Axura, Ebixa, Nootropil, Prometax, Memac, Eranz market past, present and future scenario has been analyzed in this report. Key questions answered in the report?     Which regions have the highest prevalence of Alzheimer’s Disease diseases today and by 2050? What is the market share accounted by Alzheimer’s disease drugs in the global markets? What is the market share accounted by the region in the global market? Which drugs have patent expiry and future forecast of drug sales? Research Highlights       More than 35 Million people are expected to suffer from Alzheimer’s disease by 2015 worldwide. By 2050, 59 percent of the world’s Alzheimer’s cases will live in Asia. Global Alzheimer’s disease market is expected to cross the figure of US$ 19 Billion by 2015. North America is the leading market share taker in the Alzheimer’s disease market. Aricept sales is expected to fall after losing its patent in November 2010 Ebixa, Excelon & Namenda are on the path of becoming the next blockbuster drugs after Aricept © Renub Research Page 3 of 18
Slide 4: Key Company Profiles This section provides business overview and key financial information of the companies listed below: Forest Laboratories, Eisai, H. Lundbeck A/S, Novartis, Merz GmbH & Co. KGaA, Johnson & Johnson, UCB Data Sources Information and data in this report has been collected from various printable and nonprintable sources like Trade Journals, White papers, Online paid databases, News websites, Government Agencies, Magazines, Newspapers and Trade associations. © Renub Research Page 4 of 18
Slide 5: Published By Renub Research A–116B, Sector–27 Noida – 201301 Phone: +91-120-4219-822, 2545-750 (India) +1-678-3020-700 (USA) Fax : +91-120-4249-780 Email: info@renub.com www.renub.com © Alzheimer’s Disease Patients & Market Worldwide, Future Scenario (2010 – 2015) & Drugs Analysis Renub Research, 2011 Edition 1.0 All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright. No part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publishers © Renub Research Page 5 of 18
Slide 6: Table of Contents 1. 2. Executive Summary Worldwide Prevalence of Alzheimer’s Patients 2.1 2.2 2.3 3. Total Number of Alzheimer’s Patients Total Number of Early Stage Alzheimer’s Patients Total Number of Late Stage Alzheimer’s Patients Regional Estimates for Alzheimer’s Patients 3.1 Africa Total Number of Alzheimer’s Patients Total Number of Early Stage Alzheimer’s Patients Total Number of Late Stage Alzheimer’s Patients 3.1.1 3.1.2 3.1.3 3.2 Asia 3.2.1 3.2.2 3.2.3 3.3 Total Number of Alzheimer’s Patients Total Number of Early Stage Alzheimer’s Patients Total Number of Late Stage Alzheimer’s Patients Europe Total Number of Alzheimer’s Patients Total Number of Early Stage Alzheimer’s Patients Total Number Of Late Stage Alzheimer’s Patients 3.3.1 3.3.2 3.3.3 3.4 Latin America & Caribbean Total Number of Alzheimer’s Patients Total Number of Early Stage Alzheimer’s Patients Total Number of Late Stage Alzheimer’s Patients 3.4.1 3.4.2 3.4.3 3.5 North America Total Number of Alzheimer’s Patients Total Number of Early Stage Alzheimer’s Patients Total Number of Late Stage Alzheimer’s Patients 3.5.1 3.5.2 3.5.3 3.6 Oceania Total Number of Alzheimer’s Patients Total Number of Early Stage Alzheimer’s Patients Total Number of Late Stage Alzheimer’s Patients 3.6.1 3.6.2 3.6.3 4. Worldwide Alzheimer’s Disease Market Page 6 of 18 © Renub Research
Slide 7: 4.1 4.2 4.3 5. 6. North America Alzheimer’s Disease Market Europe Alzheimer’s Disease Market Rest of the World Alzheimer’s Disease Market Worldwide – Alzheimer’s Drug Market Share 2008 – 2009 Worldwide – Top 10 Alzheimer’s Drug Brands Market Performance 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 Exelon (Rivastigmine) – Past, Present & Future Forecast Aricept (Donepezil) – Past & Present Market Razadyne (Galantamine) (Past & Present Market) Memantine (Namenda, Ebixa, Axura) Namenda (Memantine) – Past, Present & Future Forecast Ebixa (Memantine) – Past, Present & Future Forecast Axura (Memantine) – Past, Present & Future Forecast 6.4.1 6.4.2 6.4.3 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 7. 8. Nootropil (Piracetam) – Past, Present & Future Market Prometax (Rivastigmine) – Past, Present & Future Forecast Memac (Donepezil) Eranz (Donepezil) Future Blockbuster Alzheimer’s Drug Alzheimer’s Disease Deals, 2005 – 2009 Key Drivers of Growth in Global Alzheimer’s Disease Drug Market 8.1 8.2 8.3 Aging Population Unmet Medical Needs Future Drugs for Disease Modification in Alzheimer’s Disease 9. Key Challenges in the Global Alzheimer’s Disease Drug Market 9.1 9.2 9.3 Lack of Validated Targets & Lack of Animal Models Barriers in the Design and Implementation of Clinical Trials Barriers in Academia & Regulatory Issues Key Players in the Alzheimer’s Drug Market Forest Laboratories Eisai Page 7 of 18 10. 10.1 10.2 © Renub Research
Slide 8: 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 H. Lundbeck A/S Novartis Merz GmbH & Co. KGaA Johnson & Johnson UCB © Renub Research Page 8 of 18
Slide 9: List of Figures: Figure 2-1: Worldwide – Number of Patients with Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2006 – 2010 Figure 2-2: Worldwide – Number of Patients with Early Stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2006 – 2010 Figure 2-3: Worldwide – Number of Patients with Late Stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2006 – 2010 Figure 3-1: Africa – Number of Patients with Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2006 – 2010 Figure 3-2: Africa – Number of Patients with Early Stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2006 – 2010 Figure 3-3: Africa – Number of Patients with Late Stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2006 – 2010 Figure 3-4: Asia – Number of Patients with Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2006 – 2010 Figure 3-5: Asia – Number of Patients with Late Stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2006 – 2010 Figure 3-6: Europe – Number of Patients with Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2006 – 2010 Figure 3-7: Europe – Number of Patients with Early Stage Alzheimer ’s Disease (Million), 2006 – 2010 Figure 3-8: Europe – Number of Patients with Late Stage Alzheimer ’s Disease (Million), 2006 – 2010 Figure 3-9: Latin America & Caribbean – Number of Patients with Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2006 – 2010 Figure 3-10: Latin America & Caribbean – Number of Patients with Early Stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2006 – 2010 Figure 3-11: Latin America & Caribbean – Number of Patients with Late Stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2006 – 2010 Figure 3-12: North America – Number of Patients with Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2006 – 2010 Figure 3-13: North America – Number of Patients with Early Stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2006 – 2010 Figure 3-14: North America – Number of Patients with Late Stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2006 – 2010 Figure 3-15: Oceania – Number of Patients with Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2006 – 2010 Figure 3-16: Oceania – Number of Patients with Early Stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2006 – 2010 Figure 3-17: Oceania – Number of Patients with Late Stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2006 – 2010 Figure 4-1: Worldwide – Alzheimer’s Disease Market (Billion US$), 2006 – 2010 Figure 4-2: Worldwide – Future Forecast for Alzheimer’s Disease Market (Billion US$), 2011 – 2015 Figure 4-3: North America – Alzheimer’s Disease Market (Billion US$), 2006 – 2010 Figure 4-4: North America – Future Forecast for Alzheimer’s Disease Market (Billion US$), 2011 – 2015 Figure 4-5: Europe – Alzheimer’s Disease Market (Billion US$), 2006 – 2010 Figure 4-6: Europe – Future Forecast for Alzheimer’s Disease Market (Billion US$), 2011 – 2015 Figure 4-7: Rest of the World – Alzheimer’s Disease Market (Billion US$), 2006 – 2010 Figure 4-8: Rest of the World – Forecast for Alzheimer’s Disease Market (Billion US$), 2011 – 2015 Figure 5-1: Worldwide – Drug Companies Market Share in Alzheimer’s Disease Market (Percent), 2008 Figure 5-2: Worldwide – Drug Companies Market Share in Alzheimer’s Disease Market (Percent), 2009 © Renub Research Page 9 of 18
Slide 10: Figure 6-1: Worldwide – Exelon Alzheimer’s Drug Sales (Million US$), 2005 – 2010 Figure 6-2: Worldwide – Future Forecast for Exelon Alzheimer’s Drug Sales (Million US$), 2010 – 2014 Figure 6-3: Worldwide – Aricept Alzheimer’s Drug Sales (Billion US$), 2005 – 2009 Figure 6-4: Worldwide – Razadyne Alzheimer’s Drug Sales (Million US$), 2007 – 2009 Figure 6-5: Worldwide – Namenda Alzheimer’s Drug Sales (Million US$), 2003 – 2010 Figure 6-6: Worldwide – Future Forecast for Namenda Alzheimer’s Drug Sales (Million US$), 2011 – 2015 Figure 6-7: Worldwide – Ebixa Alzheimer’s Drug Sales (Million US$), 2003 – 2010 Figure 6-8: Worldwide – Future Forecast for Ebixa Alzheimer’s Drug Sales (Million US$), 2011 – 2014 Figure 6-9: Worldwide – Axura Alzheimer’s Drug Sales (Million US$), 2003 – 2010 Figure 6-10: Worldwide – Future Forecast for Axura Alzheimer’s Drug Sales (Million US$), 2011 – 2014 Figure 6-11: Worldwide – Nootropil Alzheimer’s Drug Sales (Million US$), 2004 – 2010 Figure 6-12: Worldwide – Future Forecast for Nootropil Alzheimer’s Drug Sales (Million US$), 2011 – 2014 Figure 6-13: Worldwide – Prometax Alzheimer’s Drug Sales (Million US$), 2007 – 2010 Figure 6-14: Worldwide – Future Forecast for Prometax Alzheimer’s Drug Sales (Million US$), 2011 – 2012 Figure 6-15: Worldwide – Memac Alzheimer’s Drug Sales (Million US$), 2007 – 2009 Figure 6-16: Worldwide – Eranz Alzheimer’s Drug Sales (Million US$), 2007 – 2009 Figure 8-1: Worldwide – Population Aged 60 or Over: World and Development Regions, 1950, 1975, 2009, 2025 & 2050 Figure 8-2: Worldwide – Old-Age Dependency Ratio: Major Areas, 2009 & 2050 © Renub Research Page 10 of 18
Slide 11: List of Tables: Table 2-1: Worldwide – Forecast For Number of Patients with Alzheimer’s (Million) 2011 – 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050 Table 2-2: Worldwide – Stages of Alzheimer’s Disease Table 2-3: Worldwide – Forecast for Number of Patients with Early Stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million) 2011 – 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050 Table 2-4: Worldwide – Forecast for Number of Patients with Late Stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2011 – 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050 Table 3-1: Africa – Forecast for Number of Patients with Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2011 – 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050 Table 3-2: Africa – Forecast for Number of Patients with Early Stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2011 – 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050 Table 3-3: Africa – Forecast for Number of Patients with Late Stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2011 – 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050 Table 3-4: Asia – Forecast for Number of Patients with Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2011 – 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050 Table 3-5: Asia – Number of Patients with early stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2006 – 2010 Table 3-6: Asia – Forecast for Number of Patients with Early Stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2011 – 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050 Table 3-7: Asia – Forecast for Number of Patients with Late Stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2011 – 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050 Table 3-8: Europe – Forecast for Number of Patients with Alzheimer ’s Disease (Million), 2011 – 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050 Table 3-9: Europe – Forecast for Number of Patients with Early Stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2011 – 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050 Table 3-10: Europe – Forecast for number of patients with late stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2011 – 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050 Table 3-11: Latin America & Caribbean – Forecast for Number Of Patients with Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2011 – 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050 Table 3-12: Latin America & Caribbean – Forecast for Number of Patients with Early Stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2011 – 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050 Table 3-13: Latin America & Caribbean – Forecast for Number of Patients with Late Stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2011 – 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050 Table 3-14: North America – Forecast for Number of Patients with Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2011 – 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050 © Renub Research Page 11 of 18
Slide 12: Table 3-15: North America – Forecast for Number of Patients with Early Stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2011 – 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050 Table 3-16: North America – Forecast for Number of Patients with Late Stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2011 – 2016, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050 Table 3-17: Oceania – Forecast for Number Of Patients with Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2011 – 2016, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050 Table 3-18: Oceania – Forecast for Number of Patients with Early Stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2011 – 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050 Table 3-19: Oceania – Forecast for Number of Patients with Late Stage Alzheimer’s Disease (Million), 2011 – 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050 Table 6-1: Worldwide – Bapineuzumab Drug Future Forecast Sales, (Billion US$), 2016 Table 7-1: Worldwide – Alzheimer’s Disease Deals, 2005 – 2009 Table 8-1: Worldwide – Population Aged 60 or Over, 65 or Over and 80 Or Over By Sex (Thousands): World, Major Areas and Regions, 2009 Table 10-1: Forest Laboratories – Key Financials (Million US$), March 2008 – March 2010 Table 10-2: Eisai – Key Financials (Million US$) March 2008 – March 2010 Table 10-3: H. Lundbeck A/S – Key Financials (Million US$), 2007 – 2009 Table 10-4: Novartis – Key Financials (Million US$), 2007 – 2009 Table 10-5: Merz GmbH & Co. KGaA – Key Financials (Euro Million) 2007/08 – 2008/09 Table 10-6: Johnson & Johnson – Key Financials (Million US$) 2007 – 2009 Table 10-7: UCB – Key Financials (Million US$) 2007 – 2009 © Renub Research Page 12 of 18
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