Slide 1: Understanding The Hardware Landscape Steve Kleynhans Vice President, End-user Platforms META Group Steve.Kleynhans @ metagroup.com
Slide 2: A Turbulent Time For End-Users Corporate World  Market Perspective Consumer World     Improving economy will raise concern about value of technology Organizational productivity replaces personal productivity Lack of innovation disrupts established buying patterns Increasing gulf between user expectations and IT’s ability to deliver      Digital entertainment is mainstream but usage models in flux Complexity is a killer Users don’t want to be tied up in wires Subscription weariness is setting in Tiring of chasing next big thing Users are looking for “more” for less
Slide 3: The User Experience Corporate World    Market Perspective Consumer World    Scalable experience Information overload Immediate access   Immersive experience Content navigation Unfettered access   To people To information     To people To content     Flexible Security “Just in time” learning Central control Interoperable Privacy Ease of use is key Self managed/ unmanaged But users are users and want both sides at different times!
Slide 4: Computing As A Lifestyle  Market Perspective Lifestyle computing merges personal and corporate computing requirements       A User-Centric View Pervasive availability (access anytime, anywhere) Device diversity Independence/control of computing environment Simplicity of ergonomics and process Personalized content Collaborative environment Entertainment Education Work User Well-Being Family & Personal Commerce Community
Slide 5: Have We Reached The End Of The Road?        Market Perspective Information access still clumsy Gulf between digital and physical worlds Deployment and redeployment still cumbersome Communications still not integrated Security issues continually escalating Users are forced to choose between conflicting standards “Personal Assistant” remains elusive It’s still way too difficult! For all the improvements in the past two decades, there remain significant issues. There is still a lot of potential to be unlocked
Slide 6: The End-User Platform  Technology Trends Consumers drive technology shifts   Corporations are skeptical and not looking for change User owned devices invade corporations Performance Needs? Wireless Open Source Accelerating Business Device Chaos PC Market Turmoil      Days of “one size fits all” are over Pervasive security vs. point security Hyper-collaboration adds context Proliferation of form factors Mobility and device independence
Slide 7: When Law’s Collide 6,000 Technology Trends 100,000     Moore’s law drives transistor budgets Laws of physics dictate raw performance can't be the primary goal Laws of business say it can’t just be price New ways to use transistors    5,000 Price Performance 10,000 P4 4,000 P3 1,000 P2 3,000 Pentium 486 IBM PC 386 10 100 2,000 Multi-core processors Security Media 1,000 0 1 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 Performance must be balanced with real value
Slide 8: Wireless/Mobility Discussion 2004 Techs RFID Technology Trends Early Adopter Mainstream Sunsetting 2006 SW radios Sensor nets UWB 2008 PAN LAN IrDA Bluetooth Zigbee 802.11 Next Gen WiFi 802.11 roaming WiMax CDPD/Mobitex CDMA 1X/GPRS EDGE/EVDO Ubiq. Public
Slide 9: PC Form Factor Shifts  Client Device Trends Corporate Devices    Notebooks and mobility will dominate as prices slip further below $1000 Corporate reluctance is outweighed by productivity increases Don’t get swayed by hobbyist thinking Thin clients and handhelds have good unit growth but poor margin potential 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2004 2007 Desktop Notebook Alternative
Slide 10: The Disappearing Desktop   Client Device Trends Do desktops still have a role? How will desktops change?       Make it disappear Silent-operations Make connections easy Wire-free connectivity Add in cards declining Distant access  Ergonomics and esthetics separate products Desktops will remain the mainstay of the corporate environment, although they will become increasingly “invisible”
Slide 11: Thin Clients   Client Device Trends Slow but steady growth Gaining traction in corporate environments  Customers fear lock-in    Task focused workers only Improvements coming in RDP Implications     Apps designed to work on WTS Leverage web interface Multimedia Device driver support limitations of Windows CE
Slide 12: Notebooks     Client Device Trends Growth towards being dominant device Shift towards no-compromise Always on computing Four form factors  Transportable (desktop replacement)   Consumer only Media rich    Thin and light (corporate mainstream) Ultralight (personal toy) Pure slate  Ruggedization is increasingly important
Slide 13: The Tablet PC – The Next Big Thing?  Client Device Trends Tablet will shift from a device class to a device capability   Convertibles will dominate Slates for vertical apps    Hardware delta costs are the only real limiting factor Changing demographics favor increased demand Early hype giving way to realistic expectations By 2007 Tablet capability will be commonplace in corporate notebooks
Slide 14: Blade PCs And PC Extensions     Client Device Trends New twist on the traditional WTS model Provides combination of thin and rich Can be more acceptable to users Upfront costs very high (both hardware and engineering) Blades running WinXP SAN with user storage Client devices running RDP Blades and extensions will gain limited traction mostly against WTS approaches
Slide 15: Handhelds, Cell Phones And Gadgets   Client Device Trends All form factors will survive, but not all will thrive Handheld market declining outside of verticals Information   Creators Corporates hitting limitations Consumers want media focused appliances and converged devices The Right Form Factor for the Task Publish  And the winner for personal productivity is the smart cell phone Information Consumers Subscribe Simple Complex Selecting the best form factor for the task means supporting multiple form factors
Slide 16: Data Center Scenario  Server Platform Trends  Performance no longer an issue for 95% of 180% application workloads 160% Primary focus: efficiencies 140% 120% with 100% rapid ROI      Projected Data Center Budget Growth: 2002-12 Server platform rationalization/refresh SAN infrastructures Process/management automation Site availability, DR assessments Regulatory/compliance considerations 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2002 Network 2004 People 2006 Software 2008 2010 2012 Storage Servers
Slide 17: Server Futures   Key Server Platform Trends    Complete transition to 64 bit by mid 2005 Intel based servers will dominate the data center by 2007 PCI Express will be a strong player Blades provide only incremental growth Storage continues to be biggest growth opportunity The Storage Investment 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2002 SAN NAS DAS 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Slide 18: Information Appliances  Device Trends Home servers     Beyond just entertainment Home security Home automation Communications Seamless, silent and automatic Wireless connections Power consumption issues Always on operations Reliability – possible services play Assume scalable resources  Synchronization    Issues    
Slide 19: Other Random Hardware Spaces To Consider        Longer Range Trends Monitor mania  Multi-monitor and wide screen Need to get better connection between physical and virtual world Corporate world still awaiting a solution Sensor technology  Audio input and output  VOIP and “soft phone” “Spot” devices  Limited potential Automotive telematics Machine to machine interactions
Slide 20: Evolution From User Interface To User Experience   Bottom Line We are far from saturated on a platform basis The PC is not dead, but neither is it sufficient to meet the needs of users moving forward  Device diversity becomes the norm with PC providing coordination   While the specific products might differ between corporate and consumers, many requirements are not that different Interaction and interconnection models will be critical to user focused devices And all this must happen with an increased scrutiny on the cost of operations!
Slide 21: Community Resources   Community Sites  http://www.microsoft.com/communities/default.mspx List of Newsgroups  http://communities2.microsoft.com/communities/newsgroups/en-us/def  Attend a free chat or webcast   http://www.microsoft.com/communities/chats/default.mspx http://www.microsoft.com/seminar/events/webcasts/default.mspx http://www.microsoft.com/communities/usergroups/default.mspx http://www.microsoft.com/communities/related/default.mspx   Locate a local user group(s)  Non-Microsoft Community Sites 